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Rich Gosselin isn't a draft guru. However, Gosselin is a great journalist when it comes to questioning team sources, discovering which players are valued highest by teams and compiling the best list outlining the top 100 college players.
No list is perfect. Draft boards will always vary from team-to-team. Every year, general managers and coaches throughout the league have their own pet cats which they move up their boards. Selecting the ‘Best Player Available’ remains the strongest draft strategy year-in, year-out, but other factors will always impact the consensus BPAs.
For discussion purposes, let’s associate Gosselin’s top 32 players on his list as the league’s consensus choices of first round level players, the next 32 as second round level players and the final 36 as third round level players. Here’s how Gosselin’s list matched players selected round for round:
http://i356.***BLOCKED***/albums/oo4/DallasEast1701/Gosselin1.jpg
66 out of 100 players. Still, again, no list is perfect. Players will always move slightly up or down the board every April during each draft. The following two tables illustrate which players on Gosselin’s list were selected in either the immediate round above or below the league’s consensus:
http://i356.***BLOCKED***/albums/oo4/DallasEast1701/Gosselin2.jpg
http://i356.***BLOCKED***/albums/oo4/DallasEast1701/Gosselin3.jpg
26 of the remaining 34 players were selected in the rounds just above or below the BPA values teams placed upon those players. After taking into consideration that there are 32 different draft strategies with many, many more sub-contingencies which teams attempt to compensate as the draft progresses by enacting trades, a one round difference is very acceptable in my book. Finally:
http://i356.***BLOCKED***/albums/oo4/DallasEast1701/Gosselin4.jpg
As with any draft, players with higher grades on 32 different draft boards pushed some consensus players too far down the board (or completely off it) to continue being labeled as rock solid, consensus top 100 players. Perhaps top 150 or 200, but not top 100. Even so, 8 out of 100 ain’t half bad in my opinion.
Three questions.
A. Do you believe that Gosselin’s sources are genuine? Looking at the results, they certainly seem to be to me.
B. Can anyone name a ‘draft guru’ or site who/which comes as close as Gosselin’s projection? Please be sure include their top 100 list and which rounds the players were actually selected in.
C. If Jason Williams and Robert Brewster were considered top 100 players, why would anyone not grade either player as great picks—simply because Jerry Jones purposely positioned himself in the third round to select them?
No list is perfect. Draft boards will always vary from team-to-team. Every year, general managers and coaches throughout the league have their own pet cats which they move up their boards. Selecting the ‘Best Player Available’ remains the strongest draft strategy year-in, year-out, but other factors will always impact the consensus BPAs.
For discussion purposes, let’s associate Gosselin’s top 32 players on his list as the league’s consensus choices of first round level players, the next 32 as second round level players and the final 36 as third round level players. Here’s how Gosselin’s list matched players selected round for round:
http://i356.***BLOCKED***/albums/oo4/DallasEast1701/Gosselin1.jpg
66 out of 100 players. Still, again, no list is perfect. Players will always move slightly up or down the board every April during each draft. The following two tables illustrate which players on Gosselin’s list were selected in either the immediate round above or below the league’s consensus:
http://i356.***BLOCKED***/albums/oo4/DallasEast1701/Gosselin2.jpg
http://i356.***BLOCKED***/albums/oo4/DallasEast1701/Gosselin3.jpg
26 of the remaining 34 players were selected in the rounds just above or below the BPA values teams placed upon those players. After taking into consideration that there are 32 different draft strategies with many, many more sub-contingencies which teams attempt to compensate as the draft progresses by enacting trades, a one round difference is very acceptable in my book. Finally:
http://i356.***BLOCKED***/albums/oo4/DallasEast1701/Gosselin4.jpg
As with any draft, players with higher grades on 32 different draft boards pushed some consensus players too far down the board (or completely off it) to continue being labeled as rock solid, consensus top 100 players. Perhaps top 150 or 200, but not top 100. Even so, 8 out of 100 ain’t half bad in my opinion.
Three questions.
A. Do you believe that Gosselin’s sources are genuine? Looking at the results, they certainly seem to be to me.
B. Can anyone name a ‘draft guru’ or site who/which comes as close as Gosselin’s projection? Please be sure include their top 100 list and which rounds the players were actually selected in.
C. If Jason Williams and Robert Brewster were considered top 100 players, why would anyone not grade either player as great picks—simply because Jerry Jones purposely positioned himself in the third round to select them?
