Romo (and Others) Vs. Playoff Teams

[percyhoward]

The career numbers of these ten QB (in regular and post-season games) against teams that made the playoffs, ranked by their passer rating against these teams. Career rating (in regular and post-season games) follows in parentheses. At the end is their team's W-L record vs teams that made the playoffs.

Rodgers
925 of 1388 for 10890 83 td 24 int 103.0 (104.8) 21-17
Brady
82 g 1919 of 3048 for 21403 143 td 67 int 90.3 (95.4) 68-29
Brees
66 g 1651 of 2614 for 18812 131 td 75 int 89.5 (94.8) 31-35
Romo
856 of 1383 for 10387 69 td 46 int 87.7 (95.0) 15-24
PManning
2401 of 3798 for 27327 180 td 126 int 86.7 (95.1) 48-54
Schaub
847 of 1347 for 9681 52 td 44 int 83.7 (91.8) 11-23
Roethlisberger
1140 of 1866 for 13599 79td 63 int 83.4 (91.8) 31-29
Flacco
839 of 1413 for 9779 60 td 38 int 83.3 (86.3) 23-22
EManning
1328 of 2264 for 15324 104 td 66 int 82.3 (83.2) 28-39
Ryan
601 of 1058 for 6632 40 td 25 int 78.3 (90.5) 12-16

For quick comparison, here are the rankings based on how they've performed in all games (regular season and playoffs):

1. Rodgers
2. Brady
3. PManning
4. Romo
5. Brees
6. Schaub
7. Roethlisberger
8. Ryan
9. Flacco
10. EManning

And again, the rankings based on how they've performed against playoff teams (in regular season and playoffs):

1. Rodgers
2. Brady
3. Brees
4. Romo
5. PManning
6. Schaub
7. Roethlisberger
8. Flacco
9. EManning
10. Ryan

 

[Zordon]

percy, don't mean to get off topic but your signature upsets me.

 

[dstovall5]

Interesting post, I think it just reinforces what most of us already know. Romo needs a better (or even healthy) supporting cast to beat these playoffs caliber teams. No reason a TEAM should have a .364 win % against playoff teams when the QB's play is of a 87 rating (top 10 QB performance). Our win % is that low not because our QB got outplayed, but because the majority of our team got outplayed. We will continue to be mediocre until our supporting cast gets better, which I honestly think this year they will step up and hopefully so does our QB (down year for him last year).

 

[TwoDeep3]

Get into the tournament and win and all this Romo angst will go away.

Numbers mean nothing until you win.

 

[Califan007]

Better watch out for Russel Wilson, then lol...

Wilson
59% completion rate, 1461 yds, 15 TDs, 3 INTs, 106.5 QBR (100.0)

 

[Bill Wooten]

Percyhoward. You misspelled Stealers in your sig.

Otherwise, good info, but TwoDeep is right. Cowboys have to win the big one for Romo to get any credit.

 

[percyhoward]

Interesting post, I think it just reinforces what most of us already know. Romo needs a better (or even healthy) supporting cast to beat these playoffs caliber teams. No reason a TEAM should have a .364 win % against playoff teams when the QB's play is of a 87 rating (top 10 QB performance). Our win % is that low not because our QB got outplayed, but because the majority of our team got outplayed. We will continue to be mediocre until our supporting cast gets better, which I honestly think this year they will step up and hopefully so does our QB (down year for him last year).

Intelligent post.

 

[Section446]

You can candy coat it any way you want, until he wins a Super Bowl, he'll never get any respect.

 

[Idgit]

You can candy coat it any way you want, until he wins a Super Bowl, he'll never get any respect.

I think this is already patently untrue, but why not address the meat of their counter argument instead of just repeating your own unsupported conclusion? They're making a really convincing statistical case that it's our ability to affect the other team's passing game that's causing us to lose the games, and not the play of the QB. Do you have a convincing reason why they're wrong? Has our pass defense been better than people are indicating? Or can you demonstrate that the QB play has actually been worse?
Otherwise, you're just repeating what's said a dozen times in every Romo-thread that the QB is going to be held responsible for the play of the team. Yes, he will be, by casual fans. The question is *should* he be, and, so far in this thread, the argument that he should not is a heck of a lot more convincing than the argument that he should.

 

[jobberone]

Nice post PH as usual. Reinforces what your eyeball tells you. You can add in the comebacks and wins in the 4th quarter which Romo is often among the league leaders (led the league last year) as well as overall 4th quarter rating.

Having said that perception is reality for many casual fans who measure a QBs success by win totals and SB rings rather than seeing the entire picture. I'm hoping Tony can play from ahead more taking less risks and being able to actually play more conservatively and not have to carry the team. Maybe then some of those 'Tony moments' will decrease in frequency and he'll go back to a 2:1 TD/INT ratio or better.

Again, nice post.

 

[Rockport]

You can candy coat it any way you want, until he wins a Super Bowl, he'll never get any respect.

He's got my respect.

 

[Rockport]

I think this is already patently untrue, but why not address the meat of their counter argument instead of just repeating your own unsupported conclusion? They're making a really convincing statistical case that it's our ability to affect the other team's passing game that's causing us to lose the games, and not the play of the QB. Do you have a convincing reason why they're wrong? Has our pass defense been better than people are indicating? Or can you demonstrate that the QB play has actually been worse?
Otherwise, you're just repeating what's said a dozen times in every Romo-thread that the QB is going to be held responsible for the play of the team. Yes, he will be, by casual fans. The question is *should* he be, and, so far in this thread, the argument that he should not is a heck of a lot more convincing than the argument that he should.

Very well articulated.

 

[03EBZ06]

You can candy coat it any way you want, until he wins a Super Bowl, he'll never get any respect.

Romo is living a life that most of us can only dream of, and how he came up from a small college to UDFA to become starting QB of one of the best franchise of any sports is what dreams are made of, so yes he has my respect for his hard work, dedication and perseverance to become a starting QB, it wasn't t jushanded to him like 1st round draft picks, he has earned it.

 

[jobberone]

You can candy coat it any way you want, until he wins a Super Bowl, he'll never get any respect.

If that were true then Marino, Tarkenton, Archie Manning, John Brodie, Jim Kelly, Dan Fouts, Johnny Unitas, Warren Moon, and others would not be respected. Perhaps you mean to say you will never respect him. I think casual fans may not either but I don't want to lump you in with them as I don't know you. And it's obvious many former players and coaches respect the guy as well including the likes of Aikman and Staubach although there are non-Cowboy players in that group as well.

That doesn't mean we don't see his weaknesses and strengths or we're dismissing them.

 

[percyhoward]

...and he'll go back to a 2:1 TD/INT ratio or better.

Romo had 5 TD/8 INT on targets to Ogletree, Beasley, and Harris. To everyone else, the ratio was his usual 2:1 (23 TD/11 INT).

 

[jobberone]

Romo had 5 TD/8 INT on targets to Ogletree, Beasley, and Harris. To everyone else, the ratio was his usual 2:1 (23 TD/11 INT).

I'd forgotten about that. Nice little tidbit to store away.

Yep, running the right routes and recognizing hot reads are just so important. Hopefully Harris and Beasley will get up to speed. It'll be interesting to see how Williams does as he's supposed to run good routes if my memory serves me well. I also want to see how Escobar performs here as well. We know he can catch the ball and he's supposed to be a student of the game and run great routes. We'll see how well he runs his tree and reads defenses as well as hooks up with Romo.

 

[TwoDeep3]

Justifying why Romo should have league wide respect goes against human nature. The fans of other teams, like the fans of this team, do not want to see other teams having success. That is just the way it is.

So Romo will have less respect from other fans to begin with.

All the justification a Dallas fan, and a Romo fan offers, no matter how logical it is, still falls into this premise.

Now factor in that Romo has not led the team to success. Not assigning fault, just stating the case. Be it defense, special teams, lousy receivers, he wears his hat backwards....the reasoning for the Dallas fan does not matter to the fans, and even the former players who are in positions of talking heads and journalists now. Even sports writers.

They are as jaded as everyone else.

An example is Eli Manning. There is a large contingency here that slanders him at will. Mostly because he plays for the Giants, and is considered by the majority of talking heads and fans as much better than Romo, or whatever bugaboo you assign to it.

Manning is a pretty solid QB. No caveat needed.

But fans here hate him.

So too Tony Romo. But with Manning, right or wrong, he has two Super Bowl trophies and MVPs.

So when I see Percy or whomever research the quarterbacks trying to justify Romo, that will not change anyone's mind. Because the fans and sports figures who hate Dallas will never give him respect. The ones that are Dallas fans and love Romo will always give him respect.

And those of us who are waiting for the breakout moment. Those stats offered are just numbers that are thwarted by win/loss. They respect him for his gamesmanship, guts, and bravado, and skills, but are in a still wait and see mode. So those stats ALWAYS leave out the most important stat, and that is he has not closed the deal. regardless of your opinion, to some that is what counts.

Because all those stats may seem clear to you, but to others they do not answer the question is his failing his fault or others. And unless he has a stat in the win it all category, that question will still be valid for some.

All these threads about Romo are fans who love him trying to convince those still waiting to come to their side. Or vice versa.

It will not happen until he wins it all or retires.

So the complaining that this commentary ignores the stats, is the pro-stat poster ignoring that those stats are meaningless if he cannot win it all. For our fans and fans of other teams - players - coaches ect.

And even then the arguments will continue. Because there are people still actually praising Quincy and claiming if he had the right team around him, ect.

And that, my friends, is the steaming matter falling from a tall bull's butt.

 

[Idgit]

...So when I see Percy or whomever research the quarterbacks trying to justify Romo, that will not change anyone's mind. Because the fans and sports figures who hate Dallas will never give him respect. The ones that are Dallas fans and love Romo will always give him respect.

And those of us who are waiting for the breakout moment. Those stats offered are just numbers that are thwarted by win/loss. They respect him for his gamesmanship, guts, and bravado, and skills, but are in a still wait and see mode. So those stats ALWAYS leave out the most important stat, and that is he has not closed the deal. regardless of your opinion, to some that is what counts.

Because all those stats may seem clear to you, but to others they do not answer the question is his failing his fault or others. And unless he has a stat in the win it all category, that question will still be valid for some...

What the stats do, or should do, is make it clear that the lack of big game success isn't a function of the overall QB play. And they highlight that Eli Manning--two rings and all--wouldn't have those rings if he didn't have the support from his pass defense, either.
Whether those obvious facts change the minds of average fans who are unhappy with Tony Romo, or not, isn't relevant. You're right that there are always going to be people who believe things based off of insufficient data, or off of drawing the wrong conclusions from the available data. All you can really do is point it out to them. If they don't change their opinions as a result, they were never going to, anyway.

 

[jobberone]

Justifying why Romo should have league wide respect goes against human nature. The fans of other teams, like the fans of this team, do not want to see other teams having success. That is just the way it is.

So Romo will have less respect from other fans to begin with.

All the justification a Dallas fan, and a Romo fan offers, no matter how logical it is, still falls into this premise.

Now factor in that Romo has not led the team to success. Not assigning fault, just stating the case. Be it defense, special teams, lousy receivers, he wears his hat backwards....the reasoning for the Dallas fan does not matter to the fans, and even the former players who are in positions of talking heads and journalists now. Even sports writers.

They are as jaded as everyone else.

An example is Eli Manning. There is a large contingency here that slanders him at will. Mostly because he plays for the Giants, and is considered by the majority of talking heads and fans as much better than Romo, or whatever bugaboo you assign to it.

Manning is a pretty solid QB. No caveat needed.

But fans here hate him.

So too Tony Romo. But with Manning, right or wrong, he has two Super Bowl trophies and MVPs.

So when I see Percy or whomever research the quarterbacks trying to justify Romo, that will not change anyone's mind. Because the fans and sports figures who hate Dallas will never give him respect. The ones that are Dallas fans and love Romo will always give him respect.

And those of us who are waiting for the breakout moment. Those stats offered are just numbers that are thwarted by win/loss. They respect him for his gamesmanship, guts, and bravado, and skills, but are in a still wait and see mode. So those stats ALWAYS leave out the most important stat, and that is he has not closed the deal. regardless of your opinion, to some that is what counts.

Because all those stats may seem clear to you, but to others they do not answer the question is his failing his fault or others. And unless he has a stat in the win it all category, that question will still be valid for some.

All these threads about Romo are fans who love him trying to convince those still waiting to come to their side. Or vice versa.

It will not happen until he wins it all or retires.

So the complaining that this commentary ignores the stats, is the pro-stat poster ignoring that those stats are meaningless if he cannot win it all. For our fans and fans of other teams - players - coaches ect.

And even then the arguments will continue. Because there are people still actually praising Quincy and claiming if he had the right team around him, ect.

And that, my friends, is the steaming matter falling from a tall bull's butt.

Most here are not interested or trying to 'change' anyone's mind. They want to have nice conversation with fellow football fans esp Cowboys' ones. I'm often reminded or introduced to data I enjoy reading and knowing. All threads have there place and I read a lot of them as a fan of the site and not just as a mod 'having' to do so. Even the endless Jerry, Romo and Garrett sucks or doesn't suck ones.

I'm very happy to run across a relatively 'pure' football thread. I wish there was a way to keep them 'centered'.

 

[percyhoward]

Anyway...

All the guys in the list have at least 1,000 attempts and 28 games, so it's a huge sample size (almost two full seasons of games at minimum). It shows lots of things. Aaron Rodgers has had an unbelievable, almost Beamonesque, five seasons. On the surface, it would seem that the rest of the NFL is lucky that the Packers have only won one SB, with a great pass defense (4th, 4th, 1st, 9th, 4th in DPR) and a QB who is that good against the league's best teams. How are they only 21-17 in those games? Because historically, their defense has feasted on non-playoff teams, and 14 of the 17 losses were by a TD or less, most of them high-scoring.

What's most interesting to me is to compare the two lists (vs. NFL with vs. playoff teams) to see who moves up in the order (Brees, and to a lesser extent Flacco and Eli), and who falls (Peyton and Ryan drop a couple of spots) when the competition gets tougher. The fact that Rodgers, Brady, and Romo are in the Top 5 of both lists speaks to their consistency. And that's really what motivated the post in the first place. That number in parentheses is the more important of the two ratings. It's great that Brees steps up against tough opponents, but there's something to be said for taking care of business against weaker teams.

Basically, this is the kind of stuff I can't find anywhere, so I look it up myself when I find that I have some time. It's good to know, IOW.