Romo (and Others) Vs. Playoff Teams

[Rockport]

Stats are great but you really don't need them to know that Romo is a more than capable QB to lead a team to the championship if you know and understand football.

 

[CoCo]

Really, really good stuff PH. Thanks for investing the time to research and then share with us.

I also agree with the comments from Idgit & jobber regarding convincing others. I'm not too hung up on what others choose to believe. I am quite interested in the truth. What PH is sharing is truth.

Those that simply want to believe whatever based only upon their non-researched perceptions, or ESPN's soundbites can be my guest. Just don't expect it to carry any weight with me.

 

[percyhoward]

I wanted to go back to what dstovall5 said about the team (as opposed to the QB) being outplayed in these games.

QB W-L (Team's Average Rank -- Defensive Passer Rating)
Brady 68-29 .701 (Patriots Defense 11th)
Rodgers 21-17 .553 (Packers Defense 4th)
Roethlisberger 31-29 .517 (Steelers Defense 7th)
Flacco 23-22 .511 (Ravens Defense 5th)

PManning 48-54 .471 (Colts/Broncos Defense 18th)
Brees 31-35 .470 (Chargers/Saints Defense 21st)
Ryan 12-16 .429 (Falcons Defense 15th)
EManning 28-39 .418 (Giants Defense 17th)
Romo 15-24 .385 (Cowboys Defense 21st)
Schaub 11-23 .324 (Texans Defense 19th)

All the QB with records above .500 have had better-than-average defenses.

Brady and the Patriots were an incredible 53-16 against playoff teams until 2008. Since 2009, their defense has been less than elite, and the record is only 15-13, which is still pretty good. As stated previously, the Packers defense has attained their high ranking by destroying non-playoff teams.

Taking Care of Business
QB W-L vs. Non-Playoff Teams
Ryan 44-6 (Falcons Defense 15th)
Flacco 31-4 (Ravens Defense 5th)
Brady 68-10 (Patriots Defense 11th)
PManning 106-16 (Colts/Broncos Defense 18th)
Roethlisberger 56-10 (Steelers Defense 7th)
Rodgers 31-9 (Packers Defense 4th)
Romo 40-14 (Cowboys Defense 21st)
EManning 50-18 (Giants Defense 17th)
Schaub 33-15 (Texans Defense 19th)
Brees 68-35 (Chargers/Saints Defense 21st)

 

[iceman117]

thanks cool stats

 

[Califan007]

Check this out and you'll see what I mean about the impact of the 3rd WR in both those years. These numbers are only for the games against playoff teams.

2011
Passes to Robinson: 3 TD/1 INT
Passes to All Other Targets: 9 TD/4 INT

2012
Passes to Ogletree/Harris/Beasley: 2 TD/5 INT
Passes to All Other Targets: 8 TD/3 INT

Dallas played 6 games against playoff teams in 2012, and the impact of 3rd WR on passer rating can especially be seen in those games. On passes to all other targets, Romo went from 9 TD/4 INT in 2011 to 8 TD/3 INT in 2012. What happened to the huge difference? When you look at who the targets were for those passes, you see that there was hardly any difference at all, except on passes to the 3rd WR.

Even if you remove all the stats from Ogletree, Harris and Beasley from the 2012 totals--remove their TDs, their receptions, their yards, their targets from the total pass attempts and the INTs that occurred on throws to them--and did the same fr Robinson for 2011, the difference is still significant.

By comparison, Matt Ryan's stats against playoff teams got hugely better in 2012 compared to 2011. I had said in another thread that it could said that Ryan is getting better as where Romo is not. The stats for this particular thread back up that viewpoint.

 

[Beats_By_Zeke]

Even if you remove all the stats from Ogletree, Harris and Beasley from the 2012 totals--remove their TDs, their receptions, their yards, their targets from the total pass attempts and the INTs that occurred on throws to them--and did the same fr Robinson for 2011, the difference is still significant.

By comparison, Matt Ryan's stats against playoff teams got hugely better in 2012 compared to 2011. I had said in another thread that it could said that Ryan is getting better as where Romo is not. The stats for this particular thread back up that viewpoint.

Ryan team has also gotten better.

 

[Idgit]

Even if you remove all the stats from Ogletree, Harris and Beasley from the 2012 totals--remove their TDs, their receptions, their yards, their targets from the total pass attempts and the INTs that occurred on throws to them--and did the same fr Robinson for 2011, the difference is still significant.

By comparison, Matt Ryan's stats against playoff teams got hugely better in 2012 compared to 2011. I had said in another thread that it could said that Ryan is getting better as where Romo is not. The stats for this particular thread back up that viewpoint.

You obviously don't remove the stats for the purposes of that particular argument. They were part of his year. He had a year with poor protection, a lot of OL shakeup, and very inconsistent protection and poor production from his WR3s early on. It is what it is.

Personally, I don't believe most of that had to do with Romo's abilities declining. I believe from watching the games that we had a high degree of disorganization going on, mostly because of the discombobulation at C, but also because we had a WR3 early who wasn't making the right sight adjustments on his routes, and whom we later replaced with two very young players who had their issues early and then later began to play at a higher level.

With the exception of the CHI game, where we were down big and Tony was trying to force the ball downfield in the second half, and the second WAS game, where Ogletree blew a route adjustment early and Tony made a couple of poor decisions thereafter, Tony had pretty much the same year he's had every season since taking over the helm in Dallas.

 

[percyhoward]

Even if you remove all the stats from Ogletree, Harris and Beasley from the 2012 totals--remove their TDs, their receptions, their yards, their targets from the total pass attempts and the INTs that occurred on throws to them--and did the same for Robinson for 2011, the difference is still significant.

I did that already. It isn't. It's 95.3 compared to 96.3, or 1 point.

2012
to Ogletree/Beasley/Harris:
61 of 102 for 750 5td 8int 66.2
to everyone else:
364 of 544 for 4153 23td 11int 95.3

2011
to Robinson:
47 of 72 for 787 11td 2int 130.3
to everyone else:
299 of 450 for 3397 20td 8int 96.3

 

[arglebargle]

Great to see the discussion grounded on some stats, and not the 'Everybody knows this....' generalities. Interesting food for thought.

 

[burmafrd]

the haters like two deep will never be able to accept Romo. the rest of the fan base are somewhat more open minded.

Bottom line is only the haters blame romo for our troubles. Those who actually watch know its a whole cast failure. With Romo being the smallest factor as regards why we do not win games.

 

[dooomsday]

If your not putting up his stats in elimination games and play offs, then youre simply not addressing the criticism directly. There is no evidence that says, if you give Romo an all star team that he wont throw 3 picks in the last game of the season. He had 13 PBers and so much talented the team was predicted make deep play off runs every year. And in almost all those years we played beneath our capability. As did Romo. Balt certainly didnt have the best team last season. Nor were the Giants the year before. Average Ds. Mediocre weapons. Big game play by their QBs is critical.

BTW- I have seen this same research posted all over the web by a poster named CowboyRoy. Who is plagiarizing who?

 

[Califan007]

I did that already. It isn't. It's 95.3 compared to 96.3, or 1 point.

2012
to Ogletree/Beasley/Harris:
61 of 102 for 750 5td 8int 66.2
to everyone else:
364 of 544 for 4153 23td 11int 95.3

2011
to Robinson:
47 of 72 for 787 11td 2int 130.3
to everyone else:
299 of 450 for 3397 20td 8int 96.3

I think you're using stats for all games, not just the games against playoff teams.

Remove the stats against playoff teams only, which this thread is about.

 

[Califan007]

You obviously don't remove the stats for the purposes of that particular argument. They were part of his year. He had a year with poor protection, a lot of OL shakeup, and very inconsistent protection and poor production from his WR3s early on. It is what it is.

Personally, I don't believe most of that had to do with Romo's abilities declining. I believe from watching the games that we had a high degree of disorganization going on, mostly because of the discombobulation at C, but also because we had a WR3 early who wasn't making the right sight adjustments on his routes, and whom we later replaced with two very young players who had their issues early and then later began to play at a higher level.

With the exception of the CHI game, where we were down big and Tony was trying to force the ball downfield in the second half, and the second WAS game, where Ogletree blew a route adjustment early and Tony made a couple of poor decisions thereafter, Tony had pretty much the same year he's had every season since taking over the helm in Dallas.

In the argument, though, we're focusing on games against playoff teams...which by default requires removing stats from Romo's overall production.

And when focusing on those stats, you have a much smaller sample size--especially when the discussion becomes comparing 2011 to 2012. We remove the #3 WR production from the equation to get a better idea how Romo fared when going to Witten, Austin and Bryant both years. Since Bryant seemed to make a noticeable improvement last year and Witten set a record for most receptions by a TE, Romo at least had that in his corner for 2012.

 

[Califan007]

Ryan team has also gotten better.

Their offense did?...In what way? Their starters, save for the LT, were all the same players both years. Their RB got significantly worse, as did their running game.

 

[percyhoward]

I think you're using stats for all games, not just the games against playoff teams.

Remove the stats against playoff teams only, which this thread is about.

The thread is about stats vs. playoff teams for a player's entire career (for Romo, that's 39 games) -- not just one season (for 2012, that's 6 games).

I used stats for all games in response to your, "Even if you remove all the stats from Ogletree, Harris and Beasley from the 2012 totals..." I thought you were trying to say the larger sample size would show this "huge difference" that you keep talking about.

Here's 2011 vs. 2012, with the games against playoff teams only. Again, small samples. Five games in 2011, then six in 2012.

Romo's Targets vs. Playoff Teams
2011 game-by-game
@SF
to Robinson: none
to others: 20 of 33 for 345 2td 0int
Det
to Robinson: 7 of 10 for 116 0td 1int
to others: 27 of 37 for 215 3td 2int
@NE
to Robinson: 2 of 2 for 43 0td 0int
to others: 25 of 39 for 274 1td 1int
NYG
to Robinson: 4 of 5 for 137 1td 0int
to others: 17 of 26 for 184 3td 0int
@NYG
to Robinson: 4 of 5 for 61 2td 0int
to others: 25 of 32 for 228 0td 1int

2011 vs. Playoff Teams
to Robinson: 17 of 22 for 357 3td 1int 139.2
to others: 114 of 167 for 1246 9td 4int 98.0


2012 game-by-game
@Sea
to O/B/H: 1 of 1 for 26 0td 0int
to others: 22 of 39 for 225 1td 1int
@Bal
to O/B/H: 0 of 4 for 0 0td 1int
to others: 25 of 32 for 261 2td 0int
@Atl
to O/B/H: 4 of 6 for 104 1td 0int
to others: 21 of 29 for 217 0td 0int
Was
to O/B/H: 11 of 20 for 139 0td 2int
to others: 26 of 42 for 302 3td 0int
@Cin
to O/B/H: 5 of 11 for 61 0td 1int
to others: 20 of 32 for 207 1td 0int
@Was
to O/B/H: 3 of 9 for 50 1td 1int
to others: 17 of 28 for 168 1td 2int

2012 vs. Playoff teams
to O/B/H: 24 of 51 for 380 2td 5int 45.8
to others: 131 of 202 for 1380 8td 3int 91.6

Difference from 2011 to 2012 vs. Playoff Teams:
to 3rdWR: -93.4 points
to others: -6.4 points

 

[Califan007]

The thread is about stats vs. playoff teams for a player's entire career (for Romo, that's 39 games) -- not just one season (for 2012, that's 6 games).

I used stats for all games in response to your, "Even if you remove all the stats from Ogletree, Harris and Beasley from the 2012 totals..." I thought you were trying to say the larger sample size would show this "huge difference" that you keep talking about.

Not sure why you thought that since you and I both were talking about 2011 and 2012 ONLY in our back and forth:

You: "Check this out and you'll see what I mean about the impact of the 3rd WR in both those years...."

"2011
Passes to Robinson: 3 TD/1 INT
Passes to All Other Targets: 9 TD/4 INT

2012
Passes to Ogletree/Harris/Beasley: 2 TD/5 INT
Passes to All Other Targets: 8 TD/3 INT"

"Dallas played 6 games against playoff teams in 2012, and the impact of 3rd WR on passer rating can especially be seen in those games."


At any rate, my stats for those seasons (2011 and 2012) are slightly different from yours--for example, I have Ogletree, Harris and Beasley being targeted 47 times and you have them being targeted 51 times--but I doubt it's enough to have any real effect on the outcome:

Romo against playoff teams, after eliminating throws to Robinson, Ogletree, Harris and Beasley:

2011: 98.0 QBR
2012: 89.4 QBR

That, to me, is significant--which is the word I actually used about Romo's stats after removing the other WRs.

I used "huge" to describe the difference when we don't remove Robinson, Ogletree, Harris and Beasley.

If we don't remove the stats for those 4 WRs:

2011: 105.3 QBR
2012: 82.1 QBR

That, to me, is huge.

And the comparison I mentioned to Matt Ryan?

2011: 70.8 QBR
2012: 99.3 QBR

That's huge, too lol...

 

[percyhoward]

Romo against playoff teams, after eliminating throws to Robinson, Ogletree, Harris and Beasley:
2011: 98.0 QBR
2012: 89.4 QBR

That, to me, is significant.

Break down 2012 game-by-game like I did, so we can find out why you came out with a lower number.

Using your number, the difference is -8.6 points. Since the difference to 3rd WR is -93.4 points, I have to ask you why on earth you would consider -8.6 significant.

 

[Califan007]

Break down 2012 game-by-game like I did, so we can find out why you came out with a lower number.

Using your number, the difference is -8.6 points. Since the difference to 3rd WR is -93.4 points, I have to ask you why on earth you would consider -8.6 significant.

I have no idea what you mean in that bolded part lol...can you explain again? Because I can't answer your question until I understand what you mean by the 3rd WR being "-93.4 point". But I will say this: having a 9-pt drop in QBR when going up against the best teams in the league should indeed be seen as significant. What you want from your franchise QB is either consistency or improvement. A drop of a few points wouldn't be significant...a drop of close to 10 points would, and should.

As for the rest, when I counted up the receptions and targets I didn't keep them separated by game, I just added them up for a total for each player. when I have time to go back and list them game-by-game, I'll post it. But like I said, regardless of which numbers get used, the end result will most likely still be the same.

 

[percyhoward]

I have no idea what you mean in that bolded part lol...can you explain again? Because I can't answer your question until I understand what you mean by the 3rd WR being "-93.4 point".

No problem. -93.4 points is the difference between 2011 and 2012 on targets to 3rd WR. -6.4 is the difference on targets to everyone else. (You have it slightly more at -8.6, but I don't think it matters much.)

What do you see in that -8.6 that isn't explained by the -93.4?

When I counted up the receptions and targets I didn't keep them separated by game, I just added them up for a total for each player. when I have time to go back and list them game-by-game, I'll post it.

Sounds good.

 

[Califan007]

No problem. -93.4 points is the difference between 2011 and 2012 on targets to 3rd WR. -6.4 is the difference on targets to everyone else. (You have it slightly more at -8.6, but I don't think it matters much.)

What do you see in that -8.6 that isn't explained by the -93.4?

Ah, I get the "-93.4" now lol...

Well, for starters, since the "-8.6" doesn't include any of the stats that make up the "-93.4", saying that the "-93.4" stats explain away the -8.6 point drop in Romo's QBR wouldn't be accurate. Well, unless you're wanting to say that the top 2 WRs can't be as productive or as good without a good quality #3 WR on the field with them--which would seem to fly in the face of all the improvement made by Dez Bryant last year with the lesser trio of WRs acting as the #3 receiver, not to mention Witten's NFL-record season.