Romo by the Numbers...

[Yakuza Rich]

A little sneak preview for my upcoming blog post (link below in my sig).

I decided to take a look at Romo by the numbers. Obviously, the score and early game effectiveness can dictate this. However, I think we've been in the first 2 games close enough to not need to throw the ball 50 times a game and the numbers suggest that we really need to keep Romo under 35 pass attempts in order for him and the offense (and team) to be its most effective:


Dallas is 30-6 when Romo throws between 20-35 pass attempts.

7-7 when Romo throws between 36-45 pass attempts.

They are 8-12 when Romo throws 36+ pass attempts.

They are 1-5 when Romo throws 45+ attempts (1 victory in the wild ’07 Bills MNF game where he threw 5 INT’s).


Romo’s QB rating on games where he throws 20-35 pass attempts is 104.7

83.7 QB rating on 36-45 pass attempts in a game

83.8 QB rating on 36+ pass attempts

81.3 QB Rating on 46+ pass attempts







YR

 

[tupperware]

How accurate is this? If you were being beat and had to catch up you'd throw more passes so naturally in games you lose you may expect to see a lot of pass attempts.

 

[Zman5]

How accurate is this? If you were being beat and had to catch up you'd throw more passes so naturally in games you lose you may expect to see a lot of pass attempts.

Not only that, I would guess Romo will throw more of high risk passes that has less chance of being completed or higher chance of being intercepted in those situations. Hence the worse QB rating.

 

[SDCowboy]

We lose more when Romo has to throw 50 passes because we are already losing. Not because he's throwing that many.

 

[joseephuss]

We lose more when Romo has to throw 50 passes because we are already losing. Not because he's throwing that many.

This is probably true of most QBs and teams. Teams that are trailing often throw more passes to try and catch up.

 

[SDCowboy]

This is probably true of most QBs and teams. Teams that are trailing often throw more passes to try and catch up.

Yep. There is no doubt in my mind if Romo throws 50 passes in a game we're winning, we're blowing the other team out. It just so happens though that he only throws that many if we're losing and need to catch up.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

How accurate is this? If you were being beat and had to catch up you'd throw more passes so naturally in games you lose you may expect to see a lot of pass attempts.

It's more accurate in the Cowboys case under Romo than most think.

I think it's safe to say that with Romo's record as a starter, this team has not lost a lot and has not lost a lot of blowout games.

In the 45+ pass attempt games, where we have a 1-5 record...the average loss was by 6.2 points. If you can refresh your memory, here's the losses:

Chicago (this past week) 27-20L
NYG (December '09) 31-24L
Washington (Sept. '08) 26-24L
Washington (week 1) 13-7L
Baltimore (Texas Stadium closes) 33-24L

In the 36-44 pass attempt games, we lost by an average of 10.7 points. HOWEVER, that includes the Philly '08 game where they got thrashed by 38 points. That would be considered a statistical outlier (a freak occurance). Take out that game, the average loss in the 36-44 pass attempt games was by 6.1 points.

They include:

Denver (week 4 2009) 17-10
Green Bay (November 2009) 17-7
Arizona (Oct. 2008) 30-24 (in OT)
Washington (Nov. 2006) 22-19
Philly (Dec. 2007) 10-6
Pittsburgh (Dec. 2008) 20-13





YR

 

[tupperware]

Looks like you're going to need to use some situational stats to get what you're looking for.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

Looks like you're going to need to use some situational stats to get what you're looking for.

True.

Although those game I recall being pretty close for most of the game and since I don't have the statistical resources, I'm not afraid to make the conclusion that we are at our best keeping Romo under 36 pass attempts.

That's not a knock on his ability because most QB's can't get above 30 pass attempts without completely losing their effectiveness.






YR

 

[hutch1254]

Nice post YR. Good breakdown.

Tupper - I think what this alludes to is that we are not a good come from behind team. Never really have been in the last 4 to 5 years. We're more of a finesse team. Our D can hold teams to FG's but we tend to breakdown at some point. We don't have a very good come back punch when we take one on the chin. We have the power punch but don't always land it. We are obviously better when we're playing with the lead and in the games Romo is attempting 25 to 30 passes then the run game must be working.

In our first two games this year we have looked "hurried" at times. Like we're trying to hurry and get the lead back after we're scored on. That's how it felt to me in the Chicago game especially. They got a FG and it was OMG we need to hurry and get the lead back, so we started passing right away, even though Barber was 5 attempts 27 yards early on.

 

[Rack]

Those stats are off. He threw 2 ints that weren't his fault in the last game well before it became "necessary" to throw 45+ passes.

That's just one example.


I really don't think those numbers show much of anything.

 

[tupperware]

True.

Although those game I recall being pretty close for most of the game and since I don't have the statistical resources, I'm not afraid to make the conclusion that we are at our best keeping Romo under 36 pass attempts.

That's not a knock on his ability because most QB's can't get above 30 pass attempts without completely losing their effectiveness.






YR

This won't give you exactly what you want, but it's at the very least something to look at.

http://www.nfl.com/players/tonyromo/situationalstats?id=ROM787981

 

[theogt]

I really don't think those numbers show much of anything.

You're right, they don't. They show if you're losing you pass more and if the other teams know you're passing, you perform worse at it.

A bit obvious.

 

[SDCowboy]

You're right, they don't. They show if you're losing you pass more and if the other teams know you're passing, you perform worse at it.

A bit obvious.

And we were STILL passing all over them even when they knew it was coming. The only thing that stops our passing attack is us with dropped passes, fluke INTs and fumbles.

 

[tupperware]

And we were STILL passing all over them even when they knew it was coming. The only thing that stops our passing attack is us with dropped passes, fluke INTs and fumbles.

And penalties.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

Those stats are off. He threw 2 ints that weren't his fault in the last game well before it became "necessary" to throw 45+ passes.

That's just one example.


I really don't think those numbers show much of anything.

Again, it's not a knock on Romo, but a knock on the gameplan to throw a lot of passes and to not try and balance out the offense.

Sure, I don't think those INT's were necessarily Romo's fault, but the end result is that they were turnovers.

And far more INT's happen in the NFL each year than running fumbles.

We threw 32 passes (to 17 run attempts) by the end of the 3rd quarter against the Bears, when were down by no more than 3 points at that point for the entire game.

The stats are not 'off', because the big picture of this is that in the 20-35 pass attempts games, Romo is very likely to win the game.

And like I mentioned, sometimes you can't help it. But the offensive gameplan isn't very good as well as Garrett's patience. Personally if I'm a defensive coordinator I blitz a lot with the front seven and focus on stopping the run with the front 7 early and don't allow anything deep. Garrett will lose his patience and just throw upwards to 45+ times a game and the likelihood for turnovers will increase.





YR

 

[SDCowboy]

And penalties.

Yes and penalties. It was the same against Washington. A defense has yet to put a stop to our passing game this season while they have no problem stuffing our running attack. We stop our passing attack.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

And we were STILL passing all over them even when they knew it was coming. The only thing that stops our passing attack is us with dropped passes, fluke INTs and fumbles.

And that's what happens when you pass more.

The way I came up with this idea was we passed the ball 99 times in the first 2 games and for 8 quarters of football, I think we only trailed by more than 7 points for about 1 full quarter. Yet we threw the ball to death.

I then looked at pass heavy teams over the years. I think the '05 Cardinals had the highest amount of pass attempts from a team in 1 season. They had 670 attempts and that equates to 41 attempts a game. Dallas is at 49.5 attempts a game. That '05 Cardinals team also went 5-11 that year.

Anyway, the other crappy running teams that relied on their passing game, like last year's Colts...didn't throw nearly as much as we are throwing now.

It's not a knock in the slightest against Romo. Like I discussed earlier, most NFL QB's lose their effectiveness after 30 attempts, Romo is at his best still at 36 attempts.

The problem is not only does Romo lose his effectiveness, but the team loses its effectiveness once we throw more than 36 times a game. The defense stays on the field too long. The offense is likely to get a holding penalty or a false start. WR more likely to drop a pass. Fluke INT's, etc.

Not Romo's fault, but still hurts the team in the end. Those losses I pointed out to, the team was hardly getting blown out by a lot, sans the Philly '08 season finale. Not sure why we are ignoring the fact that most of the games we've thrown the ball over 36 times, were indeed close games.





YR

 

[SDCowboy]

And that's what happens when you pass more.

The way I came up with this idea was we passed the ball 99 times in the first 2 games and for 8 quarters of football, I think we only trailed by more than 7 points for about 1 full quarter. Yet we threw the ball to death.

I then looked at pass heavy teams over the years. I think the '05 Cardinals had the highest amount of pass attempts from a team in 1 season. They had 670 attempts and that equates to 41 attempts a game. Dallas is at 49.5 attempts a game. That '05 Cardinals team also went 5-11 that year.

Anyway, the other crappy running teams that relied on their passing game, like last year's Colts...didn't throw nearly as much as we are throwing now.

It's not a knock in the slightest against Romo. Like I discussed earlier, most NFL QB's lose their effectiveness after 30 attempts, Romo is at his best still at 36 attempts.

The problem is not only does Romo lose his effectiveness, but the team loses its effectiveness once we throw more than 36 times a game. The defense stays on the field too long. The offense is likely to get a holding penalty or a false start. WR more likely to drop a pass. Fluke INT's, etc.

Not Romo's fault, but still hurts the team in the end. Those losses I pointed out to, the team was hardly getting blown out by a lot, sans the Philly '08 season finale. Not sure why we are ignoring the fact that most of the games we've thrown the ball over 36 times, were indeed close games.





YR

I agree but on this team, our own team killing the passing drives was happening from the 1st quarter on. There wasn't too much passing yet at that point. A ton of passes or a few, we find a way to stop ourselves.

 

[CCBoy]

It's more accurate in the Cowboys case under Romo than most think.

I think it's safe to say that with Romo's record as a starter, this team has not lost a lot and has not lost a lot of blowout games.

In the 45+ pass attempt games, where we have a 1-5 record...the average loss was by 6.2 points. If you can refresh your memory, here's the losses:

Chicago (this past week) 27-20L
NYG (December '09) 31-24L
Washington (Sept. '08) 26-24L
Washington (week 1) 13-7L
Baltimore (Texas Stadium closes) 33-24L

In the 36-44 pass attempt games, we lost by an average of 10.7 points. HOWEVER, that includes the Philly '08 game where they got thrashed by 38 points. That would be considered a statistical outlier (a freak occurance). Take out that game, the average loss in the 36-44 pass attempt games was by 6.1 points.

They include:

Denver (week 4 2009) 17-10
Green Bay (November 2009) 17-7
Arizona (Oct. 2008) 30-24 (in OT)
Washington (Nov. 2006) 22-19
Philly (Dec. 2007) 10-6
Pittsburgh (Dec. 2008) 20-13





YR

A counter measure might be established by looking at correlations between games in which Dallas was winning by say, greater than ten points and see the effects upon both pass/run percentages as well as efficiency of opponents to catch back up subsequently.