Romo struggles against 3-4?

Galian Beast said:
Tony Romo is 12-17 versus the 3-4 and he has an 88.7 QB rating against the 3-4.

Romo is also 5-2 in opening games.

More troubling though is Scott Linehan who is 14-28 against the 3-4.
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Gonna here a lot of "Kill, Kill Kill."
 
Yakuza Rich said:
It's not that.

It doesn't tell us Romo's actual performance against the 3-4. It only tells us his record. We also don't know how good those 3-4 defenses were.

If Romo had a 95 QB rating against those 3-4 defenses which averaged allowing a 82 QB rating...then the record against 3-4 teams was not due to a lack of production from the QB.

Converesely, if Romo had a 95 QB rating against those 3-4 defenses which averaged allowing a 103 QB rating, then Romo's performance was not up to snuff.

With that said, it doesn't quite surprise me. Romo takes way too much time trying to tinker with the offense pre-snap and with the 3-4 they can move around the parts easier and just hope to confuse Romo even more.






YR
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One of my biggest pet peeves is when people read selectively. I didn't just give his record against the 3-4, but his QB rating as well...
 
xwalker said:
As stated previously, the 12-17 is too close to be statistically meaningful. A random sampling of opponents would likely get a similar result.

The 14-28 is statistically relevant; although it's odd for a coach to be better vs one or the other.
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8 of those losses were to GB.
 
Galian Beast said:
One of my biggest pet peeves is when people read selectively. I didn't just give his record against the 3-4, but his QB rating as well...
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You did not:

1. Give his QB rating against 4-3 schemes

2. Give the QB rating allowed by those 3-4 schemes during that year.

3. Give the QB rating allowed by those 4-3 schemes during that year.

4. Give zero QB rating data for any of Linehan's history against 3-4 schemes.

5. Give zero QB rating data for any of Linehan's history against 4-3 schemes.

6. Give zero QB rating allowed data for any of the 3-4 schemes Linehan faced.

7. Give zero QB rating allowed data for any of the 4-3 schemes Linehan face.

This was mentioned/implied in my post.

So you should be peeved at yourself because you are not practicing what you are preaching.





YR
 
DFWJC said:
Now that was funny YR.

You proceeded to very logically explain what that record may very well not matter.

Then blew it all up by presenting your perceived flaws in Romo's game that would make this true.
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I didn't 'blow it all up.'

I showed the holes in the statistics.

But, it would not surprise me that if we did run down a more complete look at the metrics if Romo has an issue against 3-4 schemes.

Do you really believe that Romo constantly audibling and shifting around players and letting the clock run to 0.0000001 left constantly is a good thing for the offense?

In fact, the season that the offense ran the fastest in terms of the playclock was in 2007 according to FO.com, when Romo had a fantastic season and we ranked 4th in offensive efficiency.

So perhaps the 3-4 is a problem for Romo...I just don't think that there was enough statistical work done to say with a certain amount of confidence. They give some indication of it being a problem, but not fully. And it wouldn't surprise me if more advanced metrics would point to it being a problem given Romo tends to get bogged down in pre-snap audibles, line shifts and motioning...usually when the defense is trying to confuse him.

But that's right...Romo is never at fault...except when he is.





YR
 
Yakuza Rich said:
You did not:

1. Give his QB rating against 4-3 schemes

2. Give the QB rating allowed by those 3-4 schemes during that year.

3. Give the QB rating allowed by those 4-3 schemes during that year.

4. Give zero QB rating data for any of Linehan's history against 3-4 schemes.

5. Give zero QB rating data for any of Linehan's history against 4-3 schemes.

6. Give zero QB rating allowed data for any of the 3-4 schemes Linehan faced.

7. Give zero QB rating allowed data for any of the 4-3 schemes Linehan face.

This was mentioned/implied in my post.

So you should be peeved at yourself because you are not practicing what you are preaching.





YR
Click to expand...

You realize that all of that was irrelevant right?

You can take his career QB rating which is ranked 5th overall in NFL history, and look at his low QB rating against the 3-4, to extrapolate the fact that his QB rating against the 4-3 is even higher than his career QB rating (given that his rating against the 3-4 is lower than his career average). This means there is a big difference.

It also doesn't matter what the average is for QBs against the 3-4. What matters is that the 3-4 has been effective against Romo.

See above.

It's even worse a 77.3

See above.

See above.

See above.
 
Yakuza Rich said:
I didn't 'blow it all up.'

I showed the holes in the statistics.

But, it would not surprise me that if we did run down a more complete look at the metrics if Romo has an issue against 3-4 schemes.

Do you really believe that Romo constantly audibling and shifting around players and letting the clock run to 0.0000001 left constantly is a good thing for the offense?

In fact, the season that the offense ran the fastest in terms of the playclock was in 2007 according to FO.com, when Romo had a fantastic season and we ranked 4th in offensive efficiency.

So perhaps the 3-4 is a problem for Romo...I just don't think that there was enough statistical work done to say with a certain amount of confidence. They give some indication of it being a problem, but not fully. And it wouldn't surprise me if more advanced metrics would point to it being a problem given Romo tends to get bogged down in pre-snap audibles, line shifts and motioning...usually when the defense is trying to confuse him.

But that's right...Romo is never at fault...except when he is.





YR
Click to expand...

My point was is you had no evidence that he specifically runs the clock down more vs 3-4 than others.
I didn't say I liked it one way or the other.
The point was that you provided logic and threw in opinion. That was all I was saying.
 
Galian Beast said:
You realize that all of that was irrelevant right?

You can take his career QB rating which is ranked 5th overall in NFL history, and look at his low QB rating against the 3-4, to extrapolate the fact that his QB rating against the 4-3 is even higher than his career QB rating (given that his rating against the 3-4 is lower than his career average). This means there is a big difference.

It also doesn't matter what the average is for QBs against the 3-4. What matters is that the 3-4 has been effective against Romo.

See above.

It's even worse a 77.3

See above.

See above.

See above.
Click to expand...

You can't just take his career QB rating and subtract it versus the 3-4 QB rating and come up with a good answer. The league had changed in terms of schemes. When Romo started in 2006, most of the teams used a 4-3 scheme (usually a Cover 2). And the elite defenses were usually the ones that played a 3-4 (New England, Pittsburgh). Now it's changed....the league is a 3-4 dominated scheme...but the elite defenses are using more 4-3.

A QB playing versus Dallas and Seattle, both 4-3 schemes....is not the same thing. If a QB recorded a 95 QB rating versus Dallas and a 85 QB rating versus Seattle....his performance against Seattle would be much more impressive simply because Seattle has far superior pass defense metrics. But, in your way of thinking you would just rather assume they are all the same because they play a 4-3.





YR
 
He's practiced against it almost his whole career. This seems hard to believe.
 
Yakuza Rich said:
You can't just take his career QB rating and subtract it versus the 3-4 QB rating and come up with a good answer. The league had changed in terms of schemes. When Romo started in 2006, most of the teams used a 4-3 scheme (usually a Cover 2). And the elite defenses were usually the ones that played a 3-4 (New England, Pittsburgh). Now it's changed....the league is a 3-4 dominated scheme...but the elite defenses are using more 4-3.

A QB playing versus Dallas and Seattle, both 4-3 schemes....is not the same thing. If a QB recorded a 95 QB rating versus Dallas and a 85 QB rating versus Seattle....his performance against Seattle would be much more impressive simply because Seattle has far superior pass defense metrics. But, in your way of thinking you would just rather assume they are all the same because they play a 4-3.





YR
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It's still the same scheme. And while you can certainly get more detailed in the stats, they still matter.
 
Last year we were what 3 and 4 vs 3-4 teams? We won the games against the three putrid teams and lost the four against the four good teams. Seems more like what would likely be happening. We beat bad teams and lose to good teams, that's sorta been who we are for a while here.
 
With out knowing how the rest of the team played in each of those games makes the stat irrelevant.
 
Given Garrett's track record of preferring shotgun 11 personnel, does it really matter if the opponent prefers a 3-4 over a 4-3? Chances are the bad guys are going be in nickel or dime for most of the game anyway.
 
you can also argue that the last time we played San Francisco...we beat them. And that was in their house...and with Romo playing with a broken rib....and throwing a winning score to the likes of Jesse Holley. So if we are going to play the historical game....then the 49ers are beatable.
 
There is no arguing we beat the 49ers last time. It is 100% fact :)
 
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