I just posted this in another thread, however, since this thread title is just about the MVP, here is my initial thoughts:
I think it's VERY close and yes anti-Romo bias will probably cinch it for Rodgers.
I think Romo deserves it. In all actuality I think it was a typical year for Aaron Rodgers -- he didn't do anything that wasn't expected from him. Romo truly elevated his game this season and really was every bit the passer Rodgers was and probably a bit more.
In Romo's Favor
Completion Percentage
Higher Completion percentage by over 4 points. At first blush you might think it was because Rodger's always throwing bombs but then you look and see Romo's YPA (8.5) were also higher than Rodger's (8.4)
TD Percentage
Romo's TD percentage was a full half point (7.8 vs 7.3) higher than Rodgers. TD percentage (along with INT percentage) provide possibly the best metric to even out passing stats where the results are skewed by attempts.
QB Rating
The QB rating. It was just 1 point difference but that fact that Romo won it should factor heavily in the equation
In Rodger's Favor
TDs vs Turnovers
Rodgers: 40 TDs (38 Passing, 2 Rushing) vs 7 Turnovers (5 Ints, 2 lost fumbles)
Romo: 34 TDs (34 Passing, 0 Rushing) vs 12 Turnovers (9 Ints, 3 fumbles lost)
As percentages these differences aren't huge however I think the fact that Rodgers scored 6 more times than Romo and turned it over 5 less times will factor heavily.
Rushing
Rodgers ran for 20 first downs and 269 yards total -- his ability to run for 1st downs when everything else is breaking down sets him apart from the other time big time passers. Romo did actually also run for 4 first downs, however, obviously that's not a big part of his game.
Summary
I think the numbers are close the QB rating and TD percentage would normally cinch it for Romo. Having said that I believe that its VERY likely Rodgers wins it because (A) general anti-Romo bias that has built up over the past decade (B) I think MVP voters will look beyond the single point separating them on QB rating and look more closely that Rodgers had 6 more TDs and 5 less turnovers.
What's hard to tell is how voters will factor Romo's play DESPITE his back injuries. I personally think it's huge but I have my doubt that the MVP voters really will factor it in.
In summary I think Rodgers will win the MVP. If I were voting I'd vote for Romo but I'm not voting.