Setting Aside Politics A Bit

[Shake_Tiller]

The question of whether NFL TV ratings are down is being answered by Wall Street. The analysts at Nomura downgraded Papa John's Pizza shares, and to cite "The Street," --

"The primary reasons for the lowered outlooks are overall 'sluggishness' in the domestic restaurant chain sector, and its standing as the official pizza of the National Football League, which is currently experiencing TV ratings declines.

"The Nielsen company said Tuesday the weekend's nationally televised games averaged 13.8 million viewers, falling from 14.8 million the week before. Opening week recorded 16.3 million viewers and the second week had 15.8 million."

These numbers have to trouble the NFL and clearly do -- witness meetings among owners and league management as well as between the NFL and the NFLPA. When considering the year-on-year comps one must also recall that the NFL argued vociferously last year that the decline from 2015 was largely attributable to the Presidential election and the outsized attention paid to it. In other words, if there arguments in 2015 were true, the year/year comps from 2016 to 2017 should be easy.

The NFL should be be getting better ratings this year than last (if we accept the league's arguments), so even flat year/year comps would be bad news. The fact is, regardless of the reason, NFL ratings are negative.

Of course, the NFL is still attracting huge viewership, but anyone who has ever paid attention to public companies understands that downward trends are deeply negative, regardless of the size and power of the company. The NFL has fed on revenue growth. Anything that feeds revenue loss, or even revenue stagnation, is a serious problem.

 

[PA Cowboy Fan]

Ratings were already falling for a variety of reasons but this protest has only made it worse. But of course Goodell is a great Commish because he makes the league money.

 

[DIAF]

Ratings fall after reaching an all-time high. it's inevitable. For the NFL, it's football saturation - you have NFL football on 3 nights a week now, an entire cable network, brand tie-ins, and fantasy sports. The very things to expand the league's visibility in society and lead to its growth are now contributing to its fatigue as we've reached a tipping point.

I'm sure some people have stopped watching due to the protest, but that number pales in comparison to the numbers tuning out due to the other reasons.

 

[Shake_Tiller]

Ratings fall after reaching an all-time high. it's inevitable. For the NFL, it's football saturation - you have NFL football on 3 nights a week now, an entire cable network, brand tie-ins, and fantasy sports. The very things to expand the league's visibility in society and lead to its growth are now contributing to its fatigue as we've reached a tipping point.

I'm sure some people have stopped watching due to the protest, but that number pales in comparison to the numbers tuning out due to the other reasons.

I think that is generally true. But it would be a mistake to ignore the 2017 week-to-week downward trend. That is too short-term in nature to reflect longer-term issues. It is a reflection of something immediate.

I think there are folks who saw the political issue as a last straw, of sorts. They might not have tuned out if the political issue were isolated, but combine that with other factors (continuing drama with player discipline, officiating complaints, rule mumbo-jumbo, etc.) and maybe they had enough for now. Maybe they will return.

But this is a major problem for the league, whether framed as inevitable or as circumstantial. The larger a beast becomes, the more it needs fed.

 

[Denim Chicken]

Poppa John's is terrible

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I think that is generally true. But it would be a mistake to ignore the 2017 week-to-week downward trend. That is too short-term in nature to reflect longer-term issues. It is a reflection of something immediate.

I think there are folks who saw the political issue as a last straw, of sorts. They might not have tuned out if the political issue were isolated, but combine that with other factors (continuing drama with player discipline, officiating complaints, rule mumbo-jumbo, etc.) and maybe they had enough for now. Maybe they will return.

But this is a major problem for the league, whether framed as inevitable or as circumstantial. The larger a beast becomes, the more it needs fed.

It's down 8% this year as opposed to 7% last year. You want to grandstand on 1%?

 

[Ranching]

Rating are down cuz the Playboy channel slashed its rates. Ahem, at least that what @waldoputty Told me. Lol

 

[Rockport]

The question of whether NFL TV ratings are down is being answered by Wall Street. The analysts at Nomura downgraded Papa John's Pizza shares, and to cite "The Street," --

"The primary reasons for the lowered outlooks are overall 'sluggishness' in the domestic restaurant chain sector, and its standing as the official pizza of the National Football League, which is currently experiencing TV ratings declines.

"The Nielsen company said Tuesday the weekend's nationally televised games averaged 13.8 million viewers, falling from 14.8 million the week before. Opening week recorded 16.3 million viewers and the second week had 15.8 million."

These numbers have to trouble the NFL and clearly do -- witness meetings among owners and league management as well as between the NFL and the NFLPA. When considering the year-on-year comps one must also recall that the NFL argued vociferously last year that the decline from 2015 was largely attributable to the Presidential election and the outsized attention paid to it. In other words, if there arguments in 2015 were true, the year/year comps from 2016 to 2017 should be easy.

The NFL should be be getting better ratings this year than last (if we accept the league's arguments), so even flat year/year comps would be bad news. The fact is, regardless of the reason, NFL ratings are negative.

Of course, the NFL is still attracting huge viewership, but anyone who has ever paid attention to public companies understands that downward trends are deeply negative, regardless of the size and power of the company. The NFL has fed on revenue growth. Anything that feeds revenue loss, or even revenue stagnation, is a serious problem.

Ratings always go down after the first week or so.

 

[waldoputty]

Rating are down cuz the Playboy channel slashed its rates. Ahem, at least that what @waldoputty Told me. Lol

thought u would have said the playgirl channel given ur predisposition.

seriously though, it will be hard to fight the cut-the-cord trend.
also are the top-drawing teams not doing well?

if someone wants to draw conclusions on a finer-level, it would seem to require a lot of work to extract such conclusions. at which point, you may lack enough samples for a sound statistical argument.

 

[Shake_Tiller]

It's down 8% this year as opposed to 7% last year. You want to grandstand on 1%?

Grandstand? I admire you, but I wonder if you read the post. In fact, I'm at a loss to understand how you could have read it and then made that comment. I'm disappointed, to say the least.

 

[Shake_Tiller]

Ratings always go down after the first week or so.

Are the Nomura analysts unaware of this phenomenon?

 

[Reality]

I think there are many reasons why the NFL is struggling to maintain its viewership and pointing to any specific one as the largest impact is not being very realistic. I can list many reasons off the top of my head why fewer people are watching the NFL (in no particular order) ..

• The quality of the NFL in terms of product (team competitiveness) has declined with many teams in perpetual "rebuild" mode.
• The lack of young superstar quarterbacks to replace the retiring superstar quarterbacks. Yes, there are good young quarterbacks, but none of them are proving to be superstar level beyond 1-2 years, and even then, just being good does not mean "superstar". Maybe Prescott, Wentz, Goff, Watson, etc. will turn into the Bradys, Mannings, and Rodgers of tomorrow, but for now, they are just good quarterbacks.
• A lot more TV options on Sundays than in the past. Netflix and other streaming services are now available 24/7 which means a Sunday afternoon can be dominated by non-NFL/sports media consumption. In the past, NFL fans controlled their TVs on NFL Sunday afternoons because there was really nothing else on worthy of watching beyond old movies, TV show reruns and documentaries. Now, there's plenty to watch whenever you want.
• Fewer people are going to church these days which is impacting the ritual of going to church, eating Sunday lunch and football for the rest of the day.
• Having more games on TV every week by adding Thursday games has diluted the uniqueness of NFL games.
• Having Monday night games on a paid-for TV channel (ESPN) as more and more people cut the cord from cable and satellite TV services.
• Showing half of Thursday night games on a paid-for TV channel (NFL Network) as more and more people cut the cord from cable and satellite TV services.
• MLB teams with long standing histories and huge fan followings such as the Cubs, Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, etc. fighting for and making the post season in baseball.
• Player protests that originally focused on kneeling during the National Anthem has offended many people. While many have switched to a more supported kneel-before-the-anthem protest, many fans are not separating them after the fact as their actions still remind them that those players were kneeling during the anthem previously.
• The rising costs of NFL game tickets increasing each year for most teams.
• The rising costs of NFL merchandise increasing each year for most teams.
• The rising cost of NFL Sunday Ticket increasing each year.
• The NFL turning into criminal prosecutors by going after popular players year after year, month after month, in court.
• The quality of refereeing in the NFL continuing to decline despite mistakes that are clearly identified by fans and sports commentators with HD TV and high frame rate video.
• The lack of consistent penalty calling and enforcement depending on which team of referees you get, while fans being told the right call was made, and then the opposite ruling is made the next week and again said to be correct.
• Constant changes to the game by the NFL to make it more competitive such as shorter kickoffs, longer extra points, new overtime rules, etc. moves the game further away from the one most grew up watching.
• The constant effort to make the game safer for players at the expense of removing hard hits causing fewer turn overs and game changing plays.
• The increased protection of players who may or may not have suffered concussions helping to remove more and more players from games.

.. and those are just the ones I thought of while writing this.

Before someone chimes in with their agenda flag waving like mad, I listed these as objectively as I could. I do not agree with all of them and most of them have had no impact on my NFL my viewing habits. These are just things I have heard people complaining about either in conversations or throughout the internet and while one or two may not be enough to impact someone's viewing habits, I am sure the more boxes that get checked on this list will eventually start to make that impact for many people and likely already have.

 

[Montanalo]

I think there are many reasons why the NFL is struggling to maintain its viewership and pointing to any specific one as the largest impact is not being very realistic. I can list many reasons off the top of my head why fewer people are watching the NFL (in no particular order) ..

• The quality of the NFL in terms of product (team competitiveness) has declined with many teams in perpetual "rebuild" mode.
• The lack of young superstar quarterbacks to replace the retiring superstar quarterbacks. Yes, there are good young quarterbacks, but none of them are proving to be superstar level beyond 1-2 years, and even then, just being good does not mean "superstar". Maybe Prescott, Wentz, Goff, Watson, etc. will turn into the Bradys, Mannings, and Rodgers of tomorrow, but for now, they are just good quarterbacks.
• A lot more TV options on Sundays than in the past. Netflix and other streaming services are now available 24/7 which means a Sunday afternoon can be dominated by non-NFL/sports media consumption. In the past, NFL fans controlled their TVs on NFL Sunday afternoons because there was really nothing else on worthy of watching beyond old movies, TV show reruns and documentaries. Now, there's plenty to watch whenever you want.
• Fewer people are going to church these days which is impacting the ritual of going to church, eating Sunday lunch and football for the rest of the day.
• Having more games on TV every week by adding Thursday games has diluted the uniqueness of NFL games.
• Having Monday night games on a paid-for TV channel (ESPN) as more and more people cut the cord from cable and satellite TV services.
• Showing half of Thursday night games on a paid-for TV channel (NFL Network) as more and more people cut the cord from cable and satellite TV services.
• MLB teams with long standing histories and huge fan followings such as the Cubs, Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, etc. fighting for and making the post season in baseball.
• Player protests that originally focused on kneeling during the National Anthem has offended many people. While many have switched to a more supported kneel-before-the-anthem protest, many fans are not separating them after the fact as their actions still remind them that those players were kneeling during the anthem previously.
• The rising costs of NFL game tickets increasing each year for most teams.
• The rising costs of NFL merchandise increasing each year for most teams.
• The rising cost of NFL Sunday Ticket increasing each year.
• The NFL turning into criminal prosecutors by going after popular players year after year, month after month, in court.
• The quality of refereeing in the NFL continuing to decline despite mistakes that are clearly identified by fans and sports commentators with HD TV and high frame rate video.
• The lack of consistent penalty calling and enforcement depending on which team of referees you get, while fans being told the right call was made, and then the opposite ruling is made the next week and again said to be correct.
• Constant changes to the game by the NFL to make it more competitive such as shorter kickoffs, longer extra points, new overtime rules, etc. moves the game further away from the one most grew up watching.
• The constant effort to make the game safer for players at the expense of removing hard hits causing fewer turn overs and game changing plays.
• The increased protection of players who may or may not have suffered concussions helping to remove more and more players from games.

.. and those are just the ones I thought of while writing this.

Before someone chimes in with their agenda flag waving like mad, I listed these as objectively as I could. I do not agree with all of them and most of them have had no impact on my NFL my viewing habits. These are just things I have heard people complaining about either in conversations or throughout the internet and while one or two may not be enough to impact someone's viewing habits, I am sure the more boxes that get checked on this list will eventually start to make that impact for many people and likely already have.

So, in other words, an easy and quick fix?

I kid... Great summary.

 

[DIAF]

I think there are many reasons why the NFL is struggling to maintain its viewership and pointing to any specific one as the largest impact is not being very realistic. I can list many reasons off the top of my head why fewer people are watching the NFL (in no particular order) ..

• The quality of the NFL in terms of product (team competitiveness) has declined with many teams in perpetual "rebuild" mode.
• The lack of young superstar quarterbacks to replace the retiring superstar quarterbacks. Yes, there are good young quarterbacks, but none of them are proving to be superstar level beyond 1-2 years, and even then, just being good does not mean "superstar". Maybe Prescott, Wentz, Goff, Watson, etc. will turn into the Bradys, Mannings, and Rodgers of tomorrow, but for now, they are just good quarterbacks.
• A lot more TV options on Sundays than in the past. Netflix and other streaming services are now available 24/7 which means a Sunday afternoon can be dominated by non-NFL/sports media consumption. In the past, NFL fans controlled their TVs on NFL Sunday afternoons because there was really nothing else on worthy of watching beyond old movies, TV show reruns and documentaries. Now, there's plenty to watch whenever you want.
• Fewer people are going to church these days which is impacting the ritual of going to church, eating Sunday lunch and football for the rest of the day.
• Having more games on TV every week by adding Thursday games has diluted the uniqueness of NFL games.
• Having Monday night games on a paid-for TV channel (ESPN) as more and more people cut the cord from cable and satellite TV services.
• Showing half of Thursday night games on a paid-for TV channel (NFL Network) as more and more people cut the cord from cable and satellite TV services.
• MLB teams with long standing histories and huge fan followings such as the Cubs, Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, etc. fighting for and making the post season in baseball.
• Player protests that originally focused on kneeling during the National Anthem has offended many people. While many have switched to a more supported kneel-before-the-anthem protest, many fans are not separating them after the fact as their actions still remind them that those players were kneeling during the anthem previously.
• The rising costs of NFL game tickets increasing each year for most teams.
• The rising costs of NFL merchandise increasing each year for most teams.
• The rising cost of NFL Sunday Ticket increasing each year.
• The NFL turning into criminal prosecutors by going after popular players year after year, month after month, in court.
• The quality of refereeing in the NFL continuing to decline despite mistakes that are clearly identified by fans and sports commentators with HD TV and high frame rate video.
• The lack of consistent penalty calling and enforcement depending on which team of referees you get, while fans being told the right call was made, and then the opposite ruling is made the next week and again said to be correct.
• Constant changes to the game by the NFL to make it more competitive such as shorter kickoffs, longer extra points, new overtime rules, etc. moves the game further away from the one most grew up watching.
• The constant effort to make the game safer for players at the expense of removing hard hits causing fewer turn overs and game changing plays.
• The increased protection of players who may or may not have suffered concussions helping to remove more and more players from games.

.. and those are just the ones I thought of while writing this.

Before someone chimes in with their agenda flag waving like mad, I listed these as objectively as I could. I do not agree with all of them and most of them have had no impact on my NFL my viewing habits. These are just things I have heard people complaining about either in conversations or throughout the internet and while one or two may not be enough to impact someone's viewing habits, I am sure the more boxes that get checked on this list will eventually start to make that impact for many people and likely already have.

Cord-cutting is the biggest reason why the NFL's ratings are down. I don't know if ratings also count NFL Redzone, but I know I find myself watching Redzone more and more instead of actual games, unless the Cowboys or another NFC East team is playing on TV here.

 

[Idgit]

The product is being diluted. The league itself focusses on too much outside of the games themselves. The games are on too many nights each week. There's general frustration with the way the league is run. It's incredibly easy to stream games online. It's also easy to follow games from phones or with channels like the RedZone channel that don't require sitting still for 3 hours.

The protests don't help, on either side. I think, too, a certain amount of fatigue has been built in through the push for parity. It's hard to be as engaged when the players move around and it's difficult to build a consistent winner from season to season. And it's also hard to watch games like the DET/ATL game this year that are decided on, essentially, the judgement of a group of referees who have not earned anybody's trust. Throw in asshats like Blandino who make fun of the fact that the league can't even define what a catch is anymore, and it gets pretty tiresome.

Overall, I do wonder if the collection of data for these year:year comparisons is the same all the time, and whether it's adjusted for online viewership. But I know for a fact that I enjoy the NFL a lot less than I did even 5-10 years ago.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Grandstand? I admire you, but I wonder if you read the post. In fact, I'm at a loss to understand how you could have read it and then made that comment. I'm disappointed, to say the least.

If the overall trend in TV viewership is downward and the NFL is treading water than I fail to see that as a negative election or not.

At this point people attributing cause are just guessing without any data back it up election or otherwise. The overarching reality that I see is that the NFL is doing better than its competition in sports or otherwise.

 

[Shake_Tiller]

I think there are many reasons why the NFL is struggling to maintain its viewership and pointing to any specific one as the largest impact is not being very realistic. I can list many reasons off the top of my head why fewer people are watching the NFL (in no particular order) ..

• The quality of the NFL in terms of product (team competitiveness) has declined with many teams in perpetual "rebuild" mode.
• The lack of young superstar quarterbacks to replace the retiring superstar quarterbacks. Yes, there are good young quarterbacks, but none of them are proving to be superstar level beyond 1-2 years, and even then, just being good does not mean "superstar". Maybe Prescott, Wentz, Goff, Watson, etc. will turn into the Bradys, Mannings, and Rodgers of tomorrow, but for now, they are just good quarterbacks.
• A lot more TV options on Sundays than in the past. Netflix and other streaming services are now available 24/7 which means a Sunday afternoon can be dominated by non-NFL/sports media consumption. In the past, NFL fans controlled their TVs on NFL Sunday afternoons because there was really nothing else on worthy of watching beyond old movies, TV show reruns and documentaries. Now, there's plenty to watch whenever you want.
• Fewer people are going to church these days which is impacting the ritual of going to church, eating Sunday lunch and football for the rest of the day.
• Having more games on TV every week by adding Thursday games has diluted the uniqueness of NFL games.
• Having Monday night games on a paid-for TV channel (ESPN) as more and more people cut the cord from cable and satellite TV services.
• Showing half of Thursday night games on a paid-for TV channel (NFL Network) as more and more people cut the cord from cable and satellite TV services.
• MLB teams with long standing histories and huge fan followings such as the Cubs, Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, etc. fighting for and making the post season in baseball.
• Player protests that originally focused on kneeling during the National Anthem has offended many people. While many have switched to a more supported kneel-before-the-anthem protest, many fans are not separating them after the fact as their actions still remind them that those players were kneeling during the anthem previously.
• The rising costs of NFL game tickets increasing each year for most teams.
• The rising costs of NFL merchandise increasing each year for most teams.
• The rising cost of NFL Sunday Ticket increasing each year.
• The NFL turning into criminal prosecutors by going after popular players year after year, month after month, in court.
• The quality of refereeing in the NFL continuing to decline despite mistakes that are clearly identified by fans and sports commentators with HD TV and high frame rate video.
• The lack of consistent penalty calling and enforcement depending on which team of referees you get, while fans being told the right call was made, and then the opposite ruling is made the next week and again said to be correct.
• Constant changes to the game by the NFL to make it more competitive such as shorter kickoffs, longer extra points, new overtime rules, etc. moves the game further away from the one most grew up watching.
• The constant effort to make the game safer for players at the expense of removing hard hits causing fewer turn overs and game changing plays.
• The increased protection of players who may or may not have suffered concussions helping to remove more and more players from games.

.. and those are just the ones I thought of while writing this.

Before someone chimes in with their agenda flag waving like mad, I listed these as objectively as I could. I do not agree with all of them and most of them have had no impact on my NFL my viewing habits. These are just things I have heard people complaining about either in conversations or throughout the internet and while one or two may not be enough to impact someone's viewing habits, I am sure the more boxes that get checked on this list will eventually start to make that impact for many people and likely already have.

This illustrates how complicated the issue has become and why you have the JP Morgans and Nomuras of the world warning shareholders of CBS and Papa John's.

It is becoming clear the NFL is deeply concerned. But there are many questions and few answers.

This is of special interest to me because I am trying to understand my own waning passion. Politics alone wouldn't do it. Suspensions for nebulous reasons might. Certainly the quality of play is poor and the rules malleable, at best.

The NFL has had quite a run. Maybe it is past its peak.

And I would add, Goodell seems to be the most obtrusive team sports league commissioner in my memory.

 

[PA Cowboy Fan]

This illustrates how complicated the issue has become and why you have the JP Morgans and Nomuras of the world warning shareholders of CBS and Papa John's.

It is becoming clear the NFL is deeply concerned. But there are many questions and few answers.

This is of special interest to me because I am trying to understand my own waning passion. Politics alone wouldn't do it. Suspensions for nebulous reasons might. Certainly the quality of play is poor and the rules malleable, at best.

The NFL has had quite a run. Maybe it is past its peak.

And I would add, Goodell seems to be the most obtrusive team sports league commissioner in my memory.

I think it's a little of everything. My interest has been waning for a couple of years now. The politics is just the final straw. I haven't watched a non Cowboy game since it all started a couple weeks ago. But there are just too many bad games being played. The officiating is awful. I hate the Thursday games. I can't stand the Commish and all this nonsense with Zeke has been turning me off. Also the game just isn't the same game I grew up on. Maybe it's great for fantasy football but I was never into that. It's hard for me because I at one time really loved the NFL. I would watch it all day on Sundays and Monday night.

 

[aria]

Horrendous and inconsistent officiating (league wide) and some of the rules in general almost made me give it up last year. If it weren't for the fact that I was one of the last remaining in my Survivor Pool (which is the main reason I noticed how bad the officiating was) I would have stopped watching every game except the Cowboys. Just reading comments on the internet and talking to other fans, the officiating was one of the biggest concerns as well. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem to have improved at all and I'm sick of watching the officials determine the outcome of the games with their BS.

 

[JoeKing]

I think it's a little of everything. My interest has been waning for a couple of years now. The politics is just the final straw. I haven't watched a non Cowboy game since it all started a couple weeks ago. But there are just too many bad games being played. The officiating is awful. I hate the Thursday games. I can't stand the Commish and all this nonsense with Zeke has been turning me off. Also the game just isn't the same game I grew up on. Maybe it's great for fantasy football but I was never into that. It's hard for me because I at one time really loved the NFL. I would watch it all day on Sundays and Monday night.

I'm right there with you on all of that. I only watch the Cowboys games and even that is become a task. If Roger the Clown ever does get his way and Zeke does get suspended 6 games, it will make my decision so easy to be done with the NFL. I left MLB in 1994 because of its own ridiculousness and I never returned so leaving the NFL will be easy.