News: Small Wrinkle Significantly Alters Cowboys Offensive Balance (vs DET)

[CCBoy]

Small Wrinkle Significantly Alters Cowboys Offensive Balance (vs DET)

http://cowboyszone.com/2016/12/smal...-dallas-cowboys-offensive-balance-vs-det.html


The Dallas Cowboys played a spectacular game offensively. They scored an impressive 6 offensive TD’s against a Detroit Lions defense that was playing well their previous games. In addition to Dak Prescott throwing touchdown passes of 19, 21, and 25 yards, WR Dez Bryant threw a touchdown to J. Witten, and Zeke added a 55 yard TD scamper. It seems like an understatement to say the Cowboys offense is “firing on all cylinders”.

After two subpar performances against the Vikings and Giants, Dak Prescott has bounced back with two very impressive outings against the Bucs and Lions. Following his ridiculous 32 of 36 for 279 yards against the Bucs, Dak had arguably his best game of the year against the Detroit Lions.

Dak was 15 of 20 for 212 yards (more than 10 yards per attempt), 3 TD’s, no turnovers, and 35 yards rushing (20 from scrambling, 15 on designed run) against the Detroit Lions.

For the season, Dak has completed 68.1% of his passes (307 of 451) for 3630 yards, 23 TD’s,and 4 INT’s. He also has 273 yards rushing (56 attempts) and 6 TD’s, and 4 lost fumbles.

Prescott has the 3rd highest QB rating at NFL.com (105.6) for a starting QB (after Ryan and Brady).

ESPN has Dak Prescott rated as the 2nd best QB in the NFL. Dak has a Total QBR of 81.9 (tied with Brady) and Matt Ryan is rated at 82.2.

PFF still has Dak as just the 10th rated passer at 84.4 (Brady leads the NFL at 98.3).

***snip***

 

[kramskoi]

Small Wrinkle Significantly Alters Cowboys Offensive Balance (vs DET)

http://cowboyszone.com/2016/12/smal...-dallas-cowboys-offensive-balance-vs-det.html


The Dallas Cowboys played a spectacular game offensively. They scored an impressive 6 offensive TD’s against a Detroit Lions defense that was playing well their previous games. In addition to Dak Prescott throwing touchdown passes of 19, 21, and 25 yards, WR Dez Bryant threw a touchdown to J. Witten, and Zeke added a 55 yard TD scamper. It seems like an understatement to say the Cowboys offense is “firing on all cylinders”.

After two subpar performances against the Vikings and Giants, Dak Prescott has bounced back with two very impressive outings against the Bucs and Lions. Following his ridiculous 32 of 36 for 279 yards against the Bucs, Dak had arguably his best game of the year against the Detroit Lions.

Dak was 15 of 20 for 212 yards (more than 10 yards per attempt), 3 TD’s, no turnovers, and 35 yards rushing (20 from scrambling, 15 on designed run) against the Detroit Lions.

For the season, Dak has completed 68.1% of his passes (307 of 451) for 3630 yards, 23 TD’s,and 4 INT’s. He also has 273 yards rushing (56 attempts) and 6 TD’s, and 4 lost fumbles.

Prescott has the 3rd highest QB rating at NFL.com (105.6) for a starting QB (after Ryan and Brady).

ESPN has Dak Prescott rated as the 2nd best QB in the NFL. Dak has a Total QBR of 81.9 (tied with Brady) and Matt Ryan is rated at 82.2.

PFF still has Dak as just the 10th rated passer at 84.4 (Brady leads the NFL at 98.3).

The 3 TD passes of 19+ yards should suffice to quash the “dink and dunk” claims. But just in case: Dak is 4th in the NFL in yards per attempt (8.05) behind only Matt Ryan (9.26), Tom Brady (8.22) and Kirk Cousins (8.11). The Cowboys are a respectable 8th in the NFL in yards per completion (11.3) – Atlanta leads the league with.12.7 yards per completion.

Against the Lions, Dak was accurate downfield: on passes over 10 yards, Prescott went seven-of-nine for 138 yards and three touchdowns; that’s a perfect 158.3 passer rating.

Dak doesn’t benefit from long runs after short throws as much as most people think. YAC (yards after catch) account for 39.5% of his total yards passing, which means that 60.5% of his total passing yards are “air yards”. Only 5 QB’s with more than 3000 yards have a higher percentage of “air yards” and none of them are having elite seasons (Carson Palmer, Marcus Mariota, Tyrod Taylor, Cam Newton and Jameis Winston).

With just one game remaining in the regular season, Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys are:

• 11th in the NFL in converting 3rd downs (42%) after hovering around 50% for the first 12 games.
• 4th (388 yards per game) in total offense after Atlanta, New Orleans and Washington.
• a vastly improved +7 in turnover differential (tied for 6th best in NFL).
• 1st the NFL in time of possession (32:25).
• 4rd in the NFL in points per game (27.2). Falcons lead NFL with 33.5 point per game (Saints 2nd, Raiders 3rd).
• 2nd the NFL in rushing yards per game (155.1), Buffalo averages 170.8
• 2nd in rushing TD’s (24), Buffalo has 28. The 3rd place team (Cardinals) have just 19.
• only Buffalo (26) and Oakland (18) have more runs of 20+ yards than the Cowboys 16.
• 2nd in the NFL in point differential with +129 behind the Patriots (+170)...

In all fairness...Detroit is ranked dead last in defense (at present) using FootballOutsiders...I think 31st before they lost to Dallas.

That said, the Dallas offense does appear to be righting itself...and hopefully Prescott is still on an upward trajectory in his learning curve. He will need to become better still over the next four to five weeks (hopefully). The 80% tendencies on under-center (run) and shotgun (pass) snaps is obviously something that has been telegraphing to opposing defenses what Dallas is up to. Over the last two games, the drop from 80% to 66% is a significant one...and if Linehan can get the offense close to 50%, they will become even harder to stop. They absolutely need to get more normal drop back (3-5 steps) passes from Prescott when under center...this could certainly make the difference in another collision with Spagnuolo's defense.

Overall, these are encouraging observations for the offense going forward...

 

[Awakened]

This is good information and definitely a key to our offensive success the last two games. Defenses were figuring out our tendencies. Good for Linehan adjusting and getting our offense humming again.

 

[Setackin]

Wow I hadn't even realized.

 

[robjay04]

Why even list the PFF as a legitimate ranking?

I used to think PFF was interesting but a few weeks ago, a player on some team made a comment that really opened my eyes. How the heck can PFF put together special rankings directly after a game for nearly every player when they don't even know player assignments?

 

[erod]

Lol. It was Detroit. With a special team call-up from the practice squad starting at corner.

 

[Idgit]

Interesting. I can't believe we didn't notice this and talk about it more during the season. Kinda crazy.

And when people talk about how snaps for Dak matter in a game without playoff implications, this is exactly what they're talking about. He's still developing, and the live reps can prepare him for the playoffs that are coming.

 

[percyhoward]

In all fairness...Detroit is ranked dead last in defense (at present) using FootballOutsiders...I think 31st before they lost to Dallas.

Only one drop back from under center was against the Lions. The other four were the week before against the defense with the league's best defensive passer rating in the 2nd half of the season going into the game. But these five attempts amount to small potatoes when compared to what we've been doing that's been working, which hasn't been relying on deception. Zeke averages 5.2 ypc when we're under center and only 4.4 when we're in shotgun.

Our strength is that we can be this predictable and still be this successful -- and that doesn't just apply to the running game. Prescott has a 103.8 rating on 168 attempts with 4+ wide receivers (better than Brady, Rodgers, and Brees), despite the fact that Elliott has only had one run all year long out of a 4WR set. That's not about fooling defenses.

 

[xwalker]

Wow I hadn't even realized.

Even with Romo they have always been predictable shotgun/pass and under-center/run. I think both were about 80% most years.

 

[percyhoward]

Even with Romo they have always been predictable shotgun/pass and under-center/run. I think both were about 80% most years.

Exactly. Even in 2014, when he had the support of his best running game, 76% of Romo's attempts were from shotgun, and his passer rating wasn't as good from under center.

 

[percyhoward]

Interesting. I can't believe we didn't notice this and talk about it more during the season. Kinda crazy.

It's way overblown. The more an offense can keep defenses guessing the better, but when your rookie QB can have this kind of success out of 4WR formations (when the defense knows what's coming), it tells you that deception -- or lack of it -- has not been an issue.

from 4+ WR formations
Ryan 60 of 83 648 yd 6 td 1 int 9 sk 113.9
Prescott 115 of 168 1363 yd 8 td 2 int 9 sk 103.8
Brady 85 of 130 991 yd 5 td 0 int 4 sk 101.2
Rodgers 148 of 233 1448 yd 15 td 3 int 16 sk 97.0
Brees 93 of 132 990 yd 8 td 5 int 6 sk 96.5

What isn't getting talked about much that probably deserves more attention is Dak's performance against elite pass defenses. It hasn't been good.

 

[Awakened]

Only one drop back from under center was against the Lions. The other four were the week before against the defense with the league's best defensive passer rating in the 2nd half of the season going into the game. But these five attempts amount to small potatoes when compared to what we've been doing that's been working, which hasn't been relying on deception. Zeke averages 5.2 ypc when we're under center and only 4.4 when we're in shotgun.

Our strength is that we can be this predictable and still be this successful -- and that doesn't just apply to the running game. Prescott has a 103.8 rating on 168 attempts with 4+ wide receivers (better than Brady, Rodgers, and Brees), despite the fact that Elliott has only had one run all year long out of a 4WR set. That's not about fooling defenses.

The point is that our offense looked really poor against the Giants and Vikings weeks 11 and 12. Our playcalling looked predictable, especially against top defenses. Teams were studying film and figuring out our tendencies as the season progressed. We needed to adjust and finally did against the Bucs, a very good defense. This is not overblown - after the Vikings and Giants games people were screaming about how predictable our playcalling had become, how hard-headed Garret/Linehan were to just keep doing the same thing and daring teams to stop us. Well, they were stopping us. We made adjustments to become less predictable, and the offense experienced a resurgence. So props to Garret and Linehan.

 

[percyhoward]

This is not overblown - after the Vikings and Giants games people were screaming about how predictable our playcalling had become, how hard-headed Garret/Linehan were to just keep doing the same thing and daring teams to stop us. Well, they were stopping us. We made adjustments to become less predictable, and the offense experienced a resurgence.

Sounds good, but you're talking about 5 plays out of 122.

The Vikings and Giants defensive ranks average to 5th, the Lions and Bucs average to 21st. All the other defenses we played before that average to 20th.

 

[ScipioCowboy]

Exactly. Even in 2014, when he had the support of his best running game, 76% of Romo's attempts were from shotgun, and his passer rating wasn't as good from under center.

I've been wondering about the "traditional dropback" issue for awhile now. How important is it that a quarterback consistently makes throws from 3, 5 and 7 step drops? If Romo hasn't been doing it consistently throughout his career, I suppose it's not that important.

 

[ScipioCowboy]

It's way overblown. The more an offense can keep defenses guessing the better, but when your rookie QB can have this kind of success out of 4WR formations (when the defense knows what's coming), it tells you that deception -- or lack of it -- has not been an issue.

from 4+ WR formations
Ryan 60 of 83 648 yd 6 td 1 int 9 sk 113.9
Prescott 115 of 168 1363 yd 8 td 2 int 9 sk 103.8
Brady 85 of 130 991 yd 5 td 0 int 4 sk 101.2
Rodgers 148 of 233 1448 yd 15 td 3 int 16 sk 97.0
Brees 93 of 132 990 yd 8 td 5 int 6 sk 96.5

What isn't getting talked about much that probably deserves more attention is Dak's performance against elite pass defenses. It hasn't been good.

Not good as in the typical drop in performance most quarterbacks experience against elite pass defenses, or not good as in big league (to evoke a Trumpism) struggling?

 

[DCBoysfan]

This is showing the maturation of Dak as a QB. This kid is a rookie and will be getting better and better. He could be the first rookie QB to win the Super Bowl. I think its crazy he can match Romo's playoff wins total in his first year.

 

[percyhoward]

Not good as in the typical drop in performance most quarterbacks experience against elite pass defenses, or not good as in big league (to evoke a Trumpism) struggling?

Not typical of most QB, but very typical of a rookie.
http://cowboyszone.com/threads/dak-in-perspective.368025/page-9#post-7119141

 

[DallasInDC]

It's way overblown. The more an offense can keep defenses guessing the better, but when your rookie QB can have this kind of success out of 4WR formations (when the defense knows what's coming), it tells you that deception -- or lack of it -- has not been an issue.

from 4+ WR formations
Ryan 60 of 83 648 yd 6 td 1 int 9 sk 113.9
Prescott 115 of 168 1363 yd 8 td 2 int 9 sk 103.8
Brady 85 of 130 991 yd 5 td 0 int 4 sk 101.2
Rodgers 148 of 233 1448 yd 15 td 3 int 16 sk 97.0
Brees 93 of 132 990 yd 8 td 5 int 6 sk 96.5

What isn't getting talked about much that probably deserves more attention is Dak's performance against elite pass defenses. It hasn't been good.

The real question is how does Dak compare to ther QBs against elite defenses. They are called elite for a reason...because QBs have trouble moving the ball/s oring against them. I would be curious to know how Dak compares against other QBs going up against the same defenses.

 

[CCBoy]

The real question is how does Dak compare to ther QBs against elite defenses. They are called elite for a reason...because QBs have trouble moving the ball/s oring against them. I would be curious to know how Dak compares against other QBs going up against the same defenses.

This is what was provided by Percy:

from 4+ WR formations
Ryan 60 of 83 648 yd 6 td 1 int 9 sk 113.9
Prescott 115 of 168 1363 yd 8 td 2 int 9 sk 103.8
Brady 85 of 130 991 yd 5 td 0 int 4 sk 101.2
Rodgers 148 of 233 1448 yd 15 td 3 int 16 sk 97.0
Brees 93 of 132 990 yd 8 td 5 int 6 sk 96.5

Those are obvious and defensed accordingly, passing formations. Prescott passes the muster formation and at #2.

Change that about, and one is talking about even more influences than just a good defense. The prominent element, being running the ball. The combination then requires deciding how well pass/run selections affect the putting of opponent's linebackers on flat feet trying to figure things out.

The Cowboys further force the run effectively, with the box stuffed with people.

 

[haleyrules]

Small Wrinkle Significantly Alters Cowboys Offensive Balance (vs DET)

http://cowboyszone.com/2016/12/smal...-dallas-cowboys-offensive-balance-vs-det.html


The Dallas Cowboys played a spectacular game offensively. They scored an impressive 6 offensive TD’s against a Detroit Lions defense that was playing well their previous games. In addition to Dak Prescott throwing touchdown passes of 19, 21, and 25 yards, WR Dez Bryant threw a touchdown to J. Witten, and Zeke added a 55 yard TD scamper. It seems like an understatement to say the Cowboys offense is “firing on all cylinders”.

After two subpar performances against the Vikings and Giants, Dak Prescott has bounced back with two very impressive outings against the Bucs and Lions. Following his ridiculous 32 of 36 for 279 yards against the Bucs, Dak had arguably his best game of the year against the Detroit Lions.

Dak was 15 of 20 for 212 yards (more than 10 yards per attempt), 3 TD’s, no turnovers, and 35 yards rushing (20 from scrambling, 15 on designed run) against the Detroit Lions.

For the season, Dak has completed 68.1% of his passes (307 of 451) for 3630 yards, 23 TD’s,and 4 INT’s. He also has 273 yards rushing (56 attempts) and 6 TD’s, and 4 lost fumbles.

Prescott has the 3rd highest QB rating at NFL.com (105.6) for a starting QB (after Ryan and Brady).

ESPN has Dak Prescott rated as the 2nd best QB in the NFL. Dak has a Total QBR of 81.9 (tied with Brady) and Matt Ryan is rated at 82.2.

PFF still has Dak as just the 10th rated passer at 84.4 (Brady leads the NFL at 98.3).

The 3 TD passes of 19+ yards should suffice to quash the “dink and dunk” claims. But just in case: Dak is 4th in the NFL in yards per attempt (8.05) behind only Matt Ryan (9.26), Tom Brady (8.22) and Kirk Cousins (8.11). The Cowboys are a respectable 8th in the NFL in yards per completion (11.3) – Atlanta leads the league with.12.7 yards per completion.

Against the Lions, Dak was accurate downfield: on passes over 10 yards, Prescott went seven-of-nine for 138 yards and three touchdowns; that’s a perfect 158.3 passer rating.

Dak doesn’t benefit from long runs after short throws as much as most people think. YAC (yards after catch) account for 39.5% of his total yards passing, which means that 60.5% of his total passing yards are “air yards”. Only 5 QB’s with more than 3000 yards have a higher percentage of “air yards” and none of them are having elite seasons (Carson Palmer, Marcus Mariota, Tyrod Taylor, Cam Newton and Jameis Winston).

With just one game remaining in the regular season, Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys are:

• 11th in the NFL in converting 3rd downs (42%) after hovering around 50% for the first 12 games.
• 4th (388 yards per game) in total offense after Atlanta, New Orleans and Washington.
• a vastly improved +7 in turnover differential (tied for 6th best in NFL).
• 1st the NFL in time of possession (32:25).
• 4rd in the NFL in points per game (27.2). Falcons lead NFL with 33.5 point per game (Saints 2nd, Raiders 3rd).
• 2nd the NFL in rushing yards per game (155.1), Buffalo averages 170.8
• 2nd in rushing TD’s (24), Buffalo has 28. The 3rd place team (Cardinals) have just 19.
• only Buffalo (26) and Oakland (18) have more runs of 20+ yards than the Cowboys 16.
• 2nd in the NFL in point differential with +129 behind the Patriots (+170)...

Great post. You put some work into this. Prescott for MVP!