Some Franchise QB Research

[ABQCOWBOY]

is it solely the QB that won those Super Bowls? hardly

I'm not going against the grain, you need a franchise QB, but the 1st round isn't the only place to get one

btw, look who's not on your list...Peyton Manning, #1 overall choice and damn, good QB

I think something closer to the truth would be, "look who's not yet on your list, Peyton Manning."

 

[jterrell]

Collins, Dilfer and Johnson aren't getting those teams into contention every year. That is where a top notch QB makes the difference. Most of the teams that build a good core along with a top QB are competing in the playoffs for more than a season or two. Nothing is a lock, but the odds get better the earlier you draft a QB, but that is not the only way to get a top QB. There is free agency, trades or get lucky/good scouting to find a later round guy.

Dallas has used two approaches to getting a top QB and have been successful with each. The Cowboys used a late round pick to grab Staubach. He would have been a 1st rounder, but no teams wanted to use high picks for a guy that would not be around for 5 years. So, Dallas got lucky on that one. Dallas used the #1 overall to get Aikman.

The common theme isn't how they got a top QB, but that they did get one. They also built teams around them. They got good running backs, strong lines, good receivers and an upper echelon defense. That is why both respective QBs not only won a Superbowl, they won more and were in contention for several years.

The difference between Staubach and Morton or Staubach and White is why Dallas won Superbowls. Morton and White were both very good QBs that played on very good teams. Those teams could get deep into the playoffs. Staubach was the factor that helped the teams win it all.[/QUOTE]

Ironically Staubach lost(but got to) more SBs than the other 2 combined.

Emmitt Smith won SBs too. Jerry Rice. LT. Reggie White. Joe Montana. heck even Adam Vinitieri.

If you are the absolute best at your position regardless of position chances are better for winning SBs.

The argument gets circular because good players win games and get to SBs, therefore QB's who get to SBs are good players. Most teams don't switch Qbs for fun. If they win with a guy they keep him. The real test is can a guy win SBs with multiple teams but we just dont see that.

Would we be better with Ben R then Bledsoe?? YES!!!
Would we be better with Philip Rivers or Eli Manning? I am not sure.
Thats the crap shoot of it.

Franchise QBs are not available in free agency.
You have to know something no one else knows and get a bit lucky.

The only way to win the Lottery is to buy tickets but it doesnt mean thats the best way to make money.

 

[jterrell]

I have no earthly idea what point you're trying to make. My apologies if I'm being dense. I just don't get it.

Brady is NOW a franchise QB. He wasn't when he won the first SB.

He is better now but the team is WORSE.
Honestly the Pats made the playoffs this year because of Brady but also because of the softish schedule and weak divisional foes.

 

[AtlCB]

St Louis vs Tennessee
Winner Kurt Warner (Not Drafted) vs Steve McNair (#3 Pick Overall, HOF?)

Baltimore vs New York Giants
Winner Trent Dilfer (#6 Overall Pick) vs Kerry Collins (#5 Overall Pick)

New England vs St. Louis
Winner Tom Brady (6th Round Pick, HOF) vs Kurt Warner (Not Drafted)

Tampa Bay vs Oakland
Winner Brad Johnson (9th Round) vs Rich Gannon (4th Round Pick)

New England vs Carolina
Winner Tom Brady (6th Round, HOF) vs Jake Delhomme (Not Drafted)

New England vs Philadelphia
Winner Tom Brady (6th Round, HOF) vs Donovan McNabb (#2 Overall Pick

Interesting. Out of the past six superbowls, only 1 QB drafted before the 6th round won the superbowl. Three out of the last six superbowls had a representative with an undrafted starting QB. These stats would indicate that finding a quality quarterback by drafting one in the first round is no longer the best way to find one.

 

[silver]

Interesting. Out of the past six superbowls, only 1 QB drafted before the 6th round won the superbowl. Three out of the last six superbowls had a representative with an undrafted starting QB. These stats would indicate that finding a quality quarterback by drafting one in the first round is no longer the best way to find one.

brady winning it 3 times skews the analysis. you can spin it any which way possible. some teams have won with bus drivers: jeff hostedler, brad johnson, trent dilfer, jim mcmahon. some teams have won it with gun slingers: kurt warner, tom brady, john elway, roger staubach.

there are many ways to get to rome. i'm sure BP and co are thinking we can get there with bledsoe. after all he's a bus driver with pedigree

 

[joseephuss]

By all means so please do go out and sign Roger Staubach!!

Was Tom Brady better this year or when he won the first Super Bowl?

Brady has become better each season since winning that first SB. His team has lost other key contributors. If Brady doesn't get better or if they switch to a lesser QB, the Pats don't win 2 additional SBs.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Interesting. Out of the past six superbowls, only 1 QB drafted before the 6th round won the superbowl. Three out of the last six superbowls had a representative with an undrafted starting QB. These stats would indicate that finding a quality quarterback by drafting one in the first round is no longer the best way to find one.

I don't know that it's all that conclusive. In the last two years, here is a list of the QBs who have made it to the playoffs.
2004
Brady 6th round
Pennington 1st round
Roethlisberger 1st round
Manning 1st round
Brees 2nd round
Plummer 2nd round
McNabb 1st round
Favre 2nd round (but traded from Atlanta to Green Bay for a 1st rd pick)
Culpepper 1st round
Vick 1st round
Hassellbeck 6th round (but traded from Green Bay to Seattle for 3rd rd pick)
Bulger 5th round

2005
Manning 1st round
Plummer 2nd round
Palmer 1st round
Brady 6th round
Leftwich 1st round
Roethlisberger 1st round
Hasselbeck 6th round(but traded from Green Bay to Seattle for 3rd rd pick)
Grossman 1st round
Sims 3rd round
Manning 1st round
Delhomme Undrafted FA
Brunnell 5th round (Traded from Green Bay to Jacksonville for a 3rd and 5th and later traded from Jacksonville to Washington for a 3rd.)

I think that for the purpose of this discussion, we have to agree on a few points.

1. Brady, while a 6th round pick, is a once in a life time deal. He is not reflective of a 6th round pick in todays NFL.

2. A player may have been drafted at a given spot but if a team has traded for him, then the pick traded should be reflective of where he's valued (drafted) by his current team.

If we can agree on these few points, we can see that only 2 QB drafted later then the 3rd has lead there team to a playoff spot in 2 years or 8%.
QBs drafted.

22 of 24 playoff QBs were taken with 3rd round picks or higher, unless you count Brady which would make it 20 of 24 or 83%,

13 of 24 playoff QBs were taken with a 1st round selection or 54.2% and 16 of 24 in the 1st two rounds or 66.6%.

To me, this would suggest that QBs taken high in the draft are indeed representative of a team having a higher probability of success.

 

[Maikeru-sama]

It's the Quarterback...Stupid!
Febuary 24, 2005
By: Michael D. Green
Dallascowboyz.com - Staff Writer

Many Analyst, General Managers and Coaches believe that for a franchise to have continued success in the NFL, in most situations, there must be quality, continuity, talent and experience at the quarterback position. Once a team decides to march down the long and rough road of the "rebuilding process", the first questions that should be asked is who will be playing quarterback for the franchise for the next several years. Once a franchise has scouted, evaluated and subsequently drafted or acquired a young quarterback, who they feel has the potential to be a franchise quarterback, for the most part, the young quarterback should be brought along very slowly, if that option is available.

In my humble opinion, the young quarterback should get every possible opportunity to play to gain some valuable real game experience to get a better handle on the speed of the game, becoming familiar with his supporting cast, getting an opportunity to run the offense and to experience some success early in his short career. Constantly bringing in veterans as starter to take away valuable playing time from a young quarterback can be very detrimental to that quarterback's development, especially if the young quarterback rarely gets snaps in practice, can never get any playing time in blowout situations, and last but not least, it has become painfully obvious that the team will not make the playoffs.

At this time, the Dallas Cowboys Organization does not seem to be interested in heeding the advice of your humble servant, with regards to how to handle a young quarterback. Because of the aforementioned fact, I decided to do some light research on my own to see what exactly other successful franchises are doing to address their quarterback needs. In this article I just wanted to provide some qualitative data from the past 4 NFL Seasons that gives some insight into how successful teams handle their particular quarterback situation. The qualitative data below neither proves nor disproves my beliefs I have previously stated regarding how an NFL Franchise handles a young quarterback. I just wanted to provide some data so one can get a sense of how successful teams throughout the NFL have handled the quarterback position for the last 4 NFL Seasons and to provide a few facts about how the lack of continuity at the quarterback position has affected the Dallas Cowboys in general.
The Dallas Cowboys
* The Cowboys have won a total of 5 Super Bowls. Each quarterback that started in those Super Bowls were all quarterbacks the Cowboys drafted.
* The Cowboys have had 7 players start at quarterback since Troy Aikman retired, which is second only to the Chicago Bears.
* As the 2005 Season approaches, Bill Parcells will be in his 3rd year as head coach and coincidentally has had a new quarterback each of those 3 seasons (assuming Drew Bledsoe wins the starting job).
* Since the 2000 Season, Troy Aikman's last year, the cowobys have Posted 26 Wins and 39 Losses and have only had 1 Playoff appearance.

link

I need to update this. I bet this year's results will further back up the notion that good Quarterback play is extremley important.

 

[gbrittain]

The problem with this type of research is the way it rolls downhill.

How many 1st round QBs have been drafted since SB 1?

You use a rather free designation of 1st round OR HOF and then grant Tom Brady early admittance to build your numbers by 3.

A real question is how many 1st round QBs took the team that drafted them to the Super Bowl in the last 10 seasons?

The answer is 4. Aikman. BLEDSOE. McNair. McNabb.


Your title here is FRANCHISE QB and Gannon, Dilfer, Collins, Delhomme, Warner, Brad Johnson, Rypien, Doug Williams and many others are NOT franchise QBs.

Hypothetically if Bledsoe wins a Super Bowl here the next two seasons does he make the Hall of fame? He will have been a 1st round pick and won 4 Conference championship games? Would he then be considered a franchise QB?

Change it and make it one SB. What about then?

How many 1st round QBs have been drafted since SB 1?

The answer is 15. Jeff George, Steve Bartowski, and Tim Couch are the only #1 overall picks in the draft since the Superbowl began to not play in at least a Conference title game.

Carr, Palmer, Eli and Alex have not either, but it is way to early to determine their ultimate fate however.

You use a rather free designation of 1st round OR HOF and then grant Tom Brady early admittance to build your numbers by 3.

I am not sure what you mean by this. They were either a first round pick or they were not. The HOF part, yeah I granted Tom Brady and Troy Aikman early entrance, but am I wrong? If Tom Brady never plays another down he is a first year inductee upon eligibility. Steve McNair, I put HOF? but I did not count him in my HOF numbers. I dont think he is a lock, but most likely he will be in the HOF as well. I am not padding my numbers at all.

A real question is how many 1st round QBs took the team that drafted them to the Super Bowl in the last 10 seasons?

The answer is 4. Aikman. BLEDSOE. McNair. McNabb.

The answer is seven: Troy Aikman, Drew Bledsoe, John Elway, John Elway, Steve McNair, and Donovan McNabb. Not sure why that would be the "real question", but there is your answer. You have to count John Elway as drafted by Denver. It is not like he played somewhere else. His rookie year was with Denver.

Your title here is FRANCHISE QB and Gannon, Dilfer, Collins, Delhomme, Warner, Brad Johnson, Rypien, Doug Williams and many others are NOT franchise QBs.

They may not be franchise QBs, but interestingly enough Dilfer, Collins, and Doug Williams were first round picks. I will be honest with you, I started this thread with the title and then started doing the research. I was very suprised to see how many QBs who were drafted high, but are not considered to be upper echelon QBs win and represent in Superbowls. I think the research shows that the higher a QB is drafted the more likley they are to win or play in a Superbowl.

Hypothetically if Bledsoe wins a Super Bowl here the next two seasons does he make the Hall of fame? He will have been a 1st round pick and won 4 Conference championship games? Would he then be considered a franchise QB?

I am not a big believer in Bledsoe. I have to be honest about that. If he does win a Superbowl in the next couple of years and we win because of him and not despite him then yes he will be a: Franchise QB. #1 Pick Overall. Superbowl winner. Multiple Superbowl appearances. Most likely a HOFer as well. Now mind you, I dont believe that will happen. However, if he does do that he will have proven me wrong.

Change it and make it one SB. What about then?

As far as I am concerned if he wins a Superbowl and it is because of his contributions and not despite them, then the answer is yes again IMO.

Of course I dont believe that will happen. I only hope it does.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Collins, Dilfer and Johnson aren't getting those teams into contention every year. That is where a top notch QB makes the difference. Most of the teams that build a good core along with a top QB are competing in the playoffs for more than a season or two. Nothing is a lock, but the odds get better the earlier you draft a QB, but that is not the only way to get a top QB. There is free agency, trades or get lucky/good scouting to find a later round guy.

Dallas has used two approaches to getting a top QB and have been successful with each. The Cowboys used a late round pick to grab Staubach. He would have been a 1st rounder, but no teams wanted to use high picks for a guy that would not be around for 5 years. So, Dallas got lucky on that one. Dallas used the #1 overall to get Aikman.

The common theme isn't how they got a top QB, but that they did get one. They also built teams around them. They got good running backs, strong lines, good receivers and an upper echelon defense. That is why both respective QBs not only won a Superbowl, they won more and were in contention for several years.

The difference between Staubach and Morton or Staubach and White is why Dallas won Superbowls. Morton and White were both very good QBs that played on very good teams. Those teams could get deep into the playoffs. Staubach was the factor that helped the teams win it all.

the Cowboys also got QBs who "got it", Aikman and Staubach had the QB position down pat

people keep leaving out development of QBs, and how important it is, as well as the QB's ability to get the nuances of playign QB in the NFL, and playing it well, down

 

[trueblue1687]

And you can dilute any point to being meaningless as this would do.
Brady was a 6th round pick. He was no where near being considered an attempt to draft a franchise QB. In fact at the time Bledsoe WAS the franchise QB. Its like saying Dallas drafting Larry Allen proved Larry Lacewell knew talent.

By including all QBs drafted by a team you bring in all QBs who failed which make the odds astronomically bad. http://www.drafthistory.com/positions/qb.html


If a QB takes his team to a SB, and especially if he takes them to 3 he becomes a franchise QB no matter whether he's Bart Starr who most felt was no better than 5th or 6th best QB of his era, Jake Delhomme who sat on a bench behind Aaron Brooks and was not signed as a starter when he was a free agent or anyone else.

SO the argument about franchise QBs getting to SBs becomes comical because the qualifier is generally how many SBs you have been to.

Hopefully that makes some sense to some of the readers if not the majority.

A "FRANCHISE QB" is a quarterback who is acquired for ONE team and plays predominately for ONE team. It has NOTHING to do with going to ro winning a SuperBowl. Kurt Warner took the Rams to the SuperBowl and he IS NOT a "Franchise QB". That term is the most overused, misunderstood term on armchair boards today. All that term was used for in the first place was to deliniate a QB who is signed for a year or two from one signed to build the "franchise" around. It has nothing to do with winning or losing. Period. For the love of GOD, try and understand that. It's really simple if you think about it - the "franchise" chooses a QB to build around.

Btw, the original list had Roger Staubach as simply a HOFer. He was in fact a 10th round selection. Although a heisman winner, his Naval commitment pushed him down in the draft and he was viewed as a project back then. He was 4 years older when he actually started playing and most thought he was only a decent back-up to Craig Morton. Whoever said that the first rounders were a lock to succeed in the NFL has it upside down. Most of the real talent is found well below #1 overall picks (see Kurt Warner stocking groceries at Kroger for example)