Some things I've learned about the NFL

[Rockport]

Jesus Rock you’re killing me brother.

I didn’t want to go through the whole schedule. People on hear say they think SoS is poppycock. If that’s the case, then how does everyone that participates in the season win/loss record poll come up with their answer?

Am I missing something here??

I don’t use SOS and I’m sure most don’t.

 

[pitt33]

I don’t use SOS and I’m sure most don’t.

What exactly do you go by in determining wins and losses?

 

[big dog cowboy]

I see Dallas as a 9-8 team. And I’m basing that on their schedule.

Worst possible way of predicting games.

Especially in a year where the Cowboys have improved so much.

 

[Rockport]

What exactly do you go by in determining wins and losses?

Honestly, I don’t go by anything. I’m a homer. I always pick 12-5 or thereabouts. So maybe others on the board can answer what they go by. It’s a good question.

 

[Bobhaze]

Honestly, I don’t go by anything. I’m a homer. I always pick 12-5 or thereabouts. So maybe others on the board can answer what they go by. It’s a good question.

Very true Rock. And we all have different reasons why we believe what we do about the Cowboys. There is no one way to do that.

On this forum, we all get to fan how we choose!

 

[Hawkeye0202]

Finally! The regular season begins. And every year, just when any of us think we have the NFL figured out as to who will make the playoffs, win divisions, and even win the Super Bowl, surprises happen. They will this year too.

So here are some things I’ve learned about the NFL that I will try to remember as the 2026 season progresses:

• In a 17 game season, each game is approximately 6% of the season. I don’t get too high or too low based on one game. It’s takes at least 4-6 games to know what a team is. And even then it may take a lot longer.
• The teams that were good and the ones who were bad from the year before don’t always indicate what they will be this year. (That’s good for us)
• All 32 teams have changed. Some for the better some for the worse. BUT - we don’t know who they are yet.
• Based on NFL averages, at least 40% of the teams who made the playoffs last year will not make it this year. Thats good for us!

Two guarantees I will make every season:

1. You can’t look at the schedule and predict wins and losses. Every team on our schedule can be a win or a loss. The margins between good and bad teams in the NFL is always thin.
2. There will be surprises. Good and bad ones.

I’m so glad meaningful football is finally here! It could be a great year for the Cowboys. And it also might not be. That’s the way it is in the NFL.

Here’s to a great 2026 season. Go Cowboys!

Something I might add Bob... generally speaking, the final four playoff teams are ........

*** teams playing the best after Thanksgiving
*** teams who avoided major injuries to key players OR did an excellent job replacing injured players
*** In other words, you can't survive a major postseason run w/o being healthy or adjusting.

 

[pitt33]

Worst possible way of predicting games.

Especially in a year where the Cowboys have improved so much.

I guess we’ll see.

That’s how I predict wins/losses for a given season. I base it on the teams they will go against.

I see them as 9-8.

 

[blueblood70]

I just wanted to make my comment about the all in Super Dream Team 2.0 the paper champions got their butts kicked yesterday You know all those moves they made in the offseason miles Garrett had stat line 000

That's Agent Zero right there bud Yep I guess they needed Aaron Donald worse than they thought cause the other $200 million worth of players and a lame excuse of a plane ride oh by the way they're separate super GM and their owner and the coaches who chose to do that I guess they should have consulted with Jerry he would have came early...lol

You know those two new cornerbacks that they got from Kansas City they didn't look very good II just wanna make a comment that just because it looks good on paper and just because you think a team makes all the right moves doesn't mean they're going to win every game And if this was the Cowboys losing last night this would be on 75 channels and it would be the only lead story about how the Cowboys couldn't get it done even after going all in Yup even if it's just game one the Cowboys would get Flack and I just wanted to give some Flack to the LA Rams for getting their butts handed to him it wasn't just a loss They got beat up by a team that actually was losing some players in the game

they choked.

 

[Blackrain]

Finally! The regular season begins. And every year, just when any of us think we have the NFL figured out as to who will make the playoffs, win divisions, and even win the Super Bowl, surprises happen. They will this year too.

So here are some things I’ve learned about the NFL that I will try to remember as the 2026 season progresses:

• In a 17 game season, each game is approximately 6% of the season. I don’t get too high or too low based on one game. It’s takes at least 4-6 games to know what a team is. And even then it may take a lot longer.
• The teams that were good and the ones who were bad from the year before don’t always indicate what they will be this year. (That’s good for us)
• All 32 teams have changed. Some for the better some for the worse. BUT - we don’t know who they are yet.
• Based on NFL averages, at least 40% of the teams who made the playoffs last year will not make it this year. Thats good for us!

Two guarantees I will make every season:

1. You can’t look at the schedule and predict wins and losses. Every team on our schedule can be a win or a loss. The margins between good and bad teams in the NFL is always thin.
2. There will be surprises. Good and bad ones.

I’m so glad meaningful football is finally here! It could be a great year for the Cowboys. And it also might not be. That’s the way it is in the NFL.

Here’s to a great 2026 season. Go Cowboys!

Every game is very important can't take anybody lightly.

Absolutely must be able to beat the teams in your division and win it.
This is where it all starts .Being able to dominate the teams in your division to get to the playoffs .
This is a constant every year that needs to be overcome.
SOS can fluctuate with injuries.
Sweep your division and you definitely have a leg up on the post season.

 

[bigE79]

Finally! The regular season begins. And every year, just when any of us think we have the NFL figured out as to who will make the playoffs, win divisions, and even win the Super Bowl, surprises happen. They will this year too.

So here are some things I’ve learned about the NFL that I will try to remember as the 2026 season progresses:

• In a 17 game season, each game is approximately 6% of the season. I don’t get too high or too low based on one game. It’s takes at least 4-6 games to know what a team is. And even then it may take a lot longer.
• The teams that were good and the ones who were bad from the year before don’t always indicate what they will be this year. (That’s good for us)
• All 32 teams have changed. Some for the better some for the worse. BUT - we don’t know who they are yet.
• Based on NFL averages, at least 40% of the teams who made the playoffs last year will not make it this year. Thats good for us!

Two guarantees I will make every season:

1. You can’t look at the schedule and predict wins and losses. Every team on our schedule can be a win or a loss. The margins between good and bad teams in the NFL is always thin.
2. There will be surprises. Good and bad ones.

I’m so glad meaningful football is finally here! It could be a great year for the Cowboys. And it also might not be. That’s the way it is in the NFL.

Here’s to a great 2026 season. Go Cowboys!

Another thing i learned about the NFL after SB 13....its fixed...lol

 

[AbeBeta]

Just chilling chatting why so serious?

I am here to improve the board -- you can't just pollute it with nothing posts and not expect pushback

 

[erod]

Not all games are equal.

Division games > conference games > AFC games

The first two are pretty much "must wins" because the next 4 are much harder.

If Dallas doesn't handle the Giants and Commodes, then this is probably just an average team.

 

[kskboys]

I don’t use SOS and I’m sure most don’t.

I'm completely uninterested in it myself. If you can't beat good teams, you've got no business in the playoffs anyway.

 

[Diehardblues]

Finally! The regular season begins. And every year, just when any of us think we have the NFL figured out as to who will make the playoffs, win divisions, and even win the Super Bowl, surprises happen. They will this year too.

So here are some things I’ve learned about the NFL that I will try to remember as the 2026 season progresses:

• In a 17 game season, each game is approximately 6% of the season. I don’t get too high or too low based on one game. It’s takes at least 4-6 games to know what a team is. And even then it may take a lot longer.
• The teams that were good and the ones who were bad from the year before don’t always indicate what they will be this year. (That’s good for us)
• All 32 teams have changed. Some for the better some for the worse. BUT - we don’t know who they are yet.
• Based on NFL averages, at least 40% of the teams who made the playoffs last year will not make it this year. Thats good for us!

Two guarantees I will make every season:

1. You can’t look at the schedule and predict wins and losses. Every team on our schedule can be a win or a loss. The margins between good and bad teams in the NFL is always thin.
2. There will be surprises. Good and bad ones.

I’m so glad meaningful football is finally here! It could be a great year for the Cowboys. And it also might not be. That’s the way it is in the NFL.

Here’s to a great 2026 season. Go Cowboys!

Yea, there’s always arguments to be made for both sides of the spectrum but I’d prefer being in that 60% more likely to return to playoffs .

Recent history and current trends are a good indicator. That said there are always surprises along with up and coming teams illustrating momentum from previous seasons.

I’d prefer to be in that 60% crowd. And it’s easy to say anyone can be the Pats or Hawks from last year but that isn’t the norm.

 

[Diehardblues]

Not all games are equal.

Division games > conference games > AFC games

The first two are pretty much "must wins" because the next 4 are much harder.

If Dallas doesn't handle the Giants and Commodes, then this is probably just an average team.

Unless they have developed into more than an average team. But yes, your exercise is otherwise correct.

 

[Diehardblues]

Yep... I just watched Darnold go down on the 5th play of the game, and Seattle immediately became the Dolphins/

Maybe , maybe not. Definitely limits them offensively but that defense can still win games , as they did . And do we know yet how long he’ll be out?

 

[Diehardblues]

a little richer than if I bet starting week 1

Wagering on NFL is dicey regardless. Even the greatest handicappers struggle to stay above winning 60%.

It becomes more about if you wagered more on the games you won cause if you are wagering evenly the juice eats up your winnings.

The real money on football wagering is in NCAA. NFL too many fans wager their hearts over their minds and spreads are too hard to call.

There’s entirely too many college games for all bookies and sports books around the country to know them all. Can really rake it on small schools some haven’t heard of.

Best handicappers in NFL aren’t picking winners but dogs who can cover.

 

[Diehardblues]

Statistics like this are meaningless unless you provide a range. Overall, it was 40%, but what is the range over the last 10 years? I expect it is all over the place. That information would be way more informative than a simple point estimate.

Over the years, fantasy football has made people think they are qualified to present and discuss statistics. Not a good development.

Yes, and we’d like to see that information. Do you have it?

And I wouldn't say meaningless. Not unless we have differing data to support.

 

[Diehardblues]

Ive always said strength of schedule talk for a whole year before the year starts is the silliest waste of time

when I gambled a bit I would always wait for week 8 before starting

When I used to wager on NFL I’d limit the teams I’d wager on. Try to stay away from wagering on your team.

And if a team is hot ride them until they lose. And divisional home teams used to be a good dog to cover spread. Picking losers who cover is a winning formula. My parlay every week was a 3 team dog.

And you don’t have to wager on games you watch. Less is always better. Have to be disciplined and decide if you’re in it to win or simply be entertained .