SportingNews: Watch out for Washington in 2007

[Kobal]

Sorry if repost.

http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=161304

Watch out for Washington in 2007
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Posted: December 22, 2006

I don't know how the Commanders can live with themselves. They have loads of talent, but they've won only five games. They're easily the most disappointing team in the league.


All I can say is, watch out for Washington in 2007.


As the Saints found out in the Commanders' 16-10 upset win last Sunday, this is a very sound team, starting with second-year quarterback Jason Campbell. He has made some mistakes, but he also has shown the arm strength, athleticism, savvy and touch that prompted Washington to pick him in the first round of the 2005 draft. I wouldn't mind seeing Campbell pull down the ball more and run with it, the way Ben Roethlisberger did as a rookie. There are some strong similarities between the two.

The offensive line has been playing as well as any in the NFL. Like the Hogs of the '80s, this group has controlled the line of scrimmage and paved the way for a strong running game. Ladell Betts has been so effective that Clinton Portis hasn't been missed. Betts has averaged 137.3 yards rushing the past four games, and if coach Joe Gibbs doesn't have an open competition for the starting running back job next summer, something is wrong.

On defense, the team is hitting its stride. Coordinator Gregg Williams has assembled good game plans, and his players have executed them in recent weeks. And the special teams, particularly the coverage units, are among the best in the league.

So what went wrong?

On offense, there has been an adjustment with the switch from Mark Brunell to Campbell. But more important, Gibbs has had trouble letting go. A longtime micromanager and play-caller, he needs to let high-priced offensive guru Al Saunders cut loose. Washington has the playmakers; Saunders should open up his dazzling playbook and use them. Then the offense will start to look more like the one Saunders ran in Kansas City for several years.

Another problem has been that the defense hasn't created turnovers -- it ranks last in the league with a paltry 11 takeaways. The solution is finding a great pass rusher to pressure quarterbacks into mistakes.

But honestly, that's the only glaring hole on this roster. It may sound crazy, but the Commanders don't need to make many changes to become Super Bowl contenders. Heck, they should be in the thick of things now.

Brian Baldinger, an offensive lineman for 12 NFL seasons, can be heard on Sporting News Radio and seen on FOX Sports. Listen online at radio.sportingnews.com.

 

[Kevinicus]

Brian Baldinger, an offensive lineman for 12 NFL seasons, can be heard on Sporting News Radio and seen on FOX Sports. Listen online at radio.sportingnews.com.

That's all you gotta knkow right there.

 

[VirusX]

Ya, they are gonna kick everyones butt and win the superbowl again in the offseason!

 

[AmishCowboy]

I have heard talk that the Commanders will target Buffalo CB Nate Clement in the offseason. I don't believe they have many draft picks, didn't they give up 2 picks in the T.J. Duckett trade and another one to trade up for Rocky McIntosh?.

 

[Rack]

 

[silverbear]

Sorry if repost.

I think I feel like analyzing Baldinger's analysis... could be fun...

I don't know how the Commanders can live with themselves. They have loads of talent, but they've won only five games. They're easily the most disappointing team in the league.


All I can say is, watch out for Washington in 2007.


As the Saints found out in the Commanders' 16-10 upset win last Sunday, this is a very sound team, starting with second-year quarterback Jason Campbell. He has made some mistakes, but he also has shown the arm strength, athleticism, savvy and touch that prompted Washington to pick him in the first round of the 2005 draft. I wouldn't mind seeing Campbell pull down the ball more and run with it, the way Ben Roethlisberger did as a rookie. There are some strong similarities between the two.

We start out in the realm of fantasy... for openers, if there's one thing Campbell has NOT done, it's make a lot of mistakes... in fact, he deserves props for the way he's protected the ball... Parcells could live with him on that aspect of his game...

But the comparisons to Roethlisberger, well, they're just ASININE... all that "arm strength, athleticism, savvy and touch" have led to a rousing 50.7 per cent completion percentage... compare that to Big Ben's 66.4 in his rookie season...

This despite the fact that Roethlisberger looked downfield more often than Campbell has (as reflected in his very fine 8.88 yards per attempt average, compared to Campbell's 6.11)... even the yards per completion averages are strikingly different-- Ben averaged 13.4 yards per completion, Jason has averaged 12.1... beyond that, Roethlisberger had 43 completions of 20 yards plus in 14 games, a little over 3 a game... Campbell has had 10 completions of 20 plus in 5 games, 2 a game...

And of course, Big Ben had a 98.1 quarterback rating, Campbell has a 71.4... yeah, no wonder Baldinger looks at Campbell, and sees Roethlisberger...

Then there's the bit about "I wouldn't mind seeing Campbell pull down the ball more and run with it, the way Ben Roethlisberger did as a rookie."; well, guess what, Campbell HAS run the ball almost exactly as often as Roethlisberger did back then, and has actually been BETTER at it...

Ben had 56 carries in 13 games, 4.3 per game, and averaged 2.6 yards per carry... Jason has 20 carries in 5 games, and has averaged 3.5 yards per carry...

The offensive line has been playing as well as any in the NFL.

And for the second year in a row, that line has been INCREDIBLY lucky when it comes to avoiding injuries... last year, the Skins' starters missed 2 games all season (when Randy Thomas broke his leg in game 14)... this year, those 5 starters have missed 1 game, by Jon Jansen last week-- and Jansen will be in the lineup this Sunday...

Now ask yourself, how likely is it that they'll get through three consecutive seasons without suffering some injuries on the OL?? Especially when 4 of those starters will be 30 or over by early next season... the only youngster in the bunch is Derrick Dockery, and he's an unrestricted free agent this offseason (and the Skins have less than a million in cap room to play with, until and unless they cut some of that high-priced talent)...

And friends, once they have to get too deep into their reserves, the talent pool gets really, really bleak... so all in all, expecting the new millennium version of the Hogs to continue playing at a high level is on the unrealistic side...

And the special teams, particularly the coverage units, are among the best in the league.

OK, now I KNOW he's just making this stuff up...

The Skins do rank 3rd in punt return coverage, but they're 14th in kickoff return coverage... they also rank 9th in kickoff returns, 22nd in punt returns...

And their field goal kickers have combined to hit on 21 of 29 field goals this year... this is a LONG way from one of the best special teams in the league, at best they're mediocre... the ONLY thing they do really well is cover punts...

So what went wrong?

On offense, there has been an adjustment with the switch from Mark Brunell to Campbell. But more important, Gibbs has had trouble letting go. A longtime micromanager and play-caller, he needs to let high-priced offensive guru Al Saunders cut loose.

And what exactly makes Baldinger think Gibbs CAN step aside and let Saunders "work his magic"??

Washington has the playmakers;

Oh, please... he's got Portis and Betts, both very good players, but they play the same position... and he's got Moss, but his numbers are off significantly from last year, indeed they're little more than mediocre (46 catches for 658 yards and 5 TDs)... I also like Cooley, whose numbers as a TE are almost as good as Moss'... but beyond that, well, let's just say that Randle El is the closest thing they have to an offensive weapon, and he's averaging barely over 10 yards a catch (29 catches for 298 yards)... Brandon Lloyd has been a colossal bust...

And they have a quarterback with a rating of 71.4 pulling the trigger for all those "weapons"... bottom line, there's a reason that the only offensive skill position player for the Skins who got NEAR the Pro Bowl is Cooley, and he's a 3rd alternate, IIRC...

Another problem has been that the defense hasn't created turnovers -- it ranks last in the league with a paltry 11 takeaways.

And how does he figure the Skins will suddenly find a way to generate turnovers??

The solution is finding a great pass rusher to pressure quarterbacks into mistakes.

And then, how does he figure the Skins are gonna be able to find that passrusher, with so little cap room to play with?? A Dwight Freeney or Adalius Thomas is gonna be VERY expensive, especially with so many teams having a ton of cap room (the Cowboys have over 21 mil, and are only about middle of the pack)...

But honestly, that's the only glaring hole on this roster.

Gee, I guess the safety play-- particularly the strong safety play-- hasn't sucked this year... one wonders why Adam Archuleta found his butt on the bench in that case...

It may sound crazy, but the Commanders don't need to make many changes to become Super Bowl contenders.

It sounds crazy because it IS crazy... the numbers don't lie, and the numbers show that the Skins rank 15th in the NFL in total offense, and 24th in total defense... and so long as they insist on throwing major dollars at free agents every offseason, they will be a team uncommonly vulnerable to injuries, because they won't be able to afford quality players to fill out the bottom of their roster...

I also think another fundamental flaw with the Skins escaped Brian's attention altogether-- the makeup of their coaching staff... everywhere you look, there's an assistant coach that used to be a head coach, and almost certainly aspires to be a head coach again... IOW, and this is an especially apropos cliche when we're talking about Commanders, they have too many chiefs, and not enough Indians... this is not a cohesive unit, working toward a common goal...

OK, I reckon I'm about done with my critique of this ludicrous article... anybody else have any thoughts on the subject?? The only thing I have left to say is I hope to God the folks out at Commanders Park are thinking this way too...

 

[CoCo]

I know they're our rivals and as such people like to dismiss them but I think this story is more truth than fiction. They certainly could be a force in 2007. A few ifs need to fall the right way but stranger things have happened.

They've beaten some good teams this year. Namely Dallas and The Saints.

And forget about cap jail. I'm not sure that exists anymore. The cap has been growing so much of late. I suspect the Skins will continue to find ways to add some FA's when they want to. I'll believe they're hands are tied when I see them have a silent FA offseason.

 

[silverbear]

I know they're our rivals and as such people like to dismiss them but I think this story is more truth than fiction. They certainly could be a force in 2007. A few ifs need to fall the right way but stranger things have happened.

They've beaten some good teams this year. Namely Dallas and The Saints.

They had to get shot in the butt with luck to beat us... and they've also lost to some rather bad teams, haven't they??

And forget about cap jail. I'm not sure that exists anymore.

Uhhh, I never said anything about "cap jail"... but the plain truth is, the Skins have the second lowest amount of cap room going into this offseason of any team in the NFL... they have under 1 million in cap room, the Steelers have only 150 thou...

On the other end of the scale, the Niners will have over FORTY TWO MILLION... the Boys will have 21.5 mil (with the possibility of creating more by letting the likes of Al Singleton or Al Johnson move on), and that only ranks them 19th best in the NFL... all told, there will be a dozen teams with at or just barely under 30 million to spend...

What this means is there will be a LOT of money out there for free agents, which means the price for free agents is about to shoot through the roof... now, the Skins can create some more cap room, but they don't have a chance of creating enough to be competitive in the bidding for the really good free agents this year... they'll be doing well to create much more than 10-12 million dollars in cap room, which would leave about 25 other teams in the NFL with greater cap flexibility...

Example-- there are rumors they want Nate Clements, who will be the best CB on the market... problem is, the only way they could ever hope to sign him would be to cut Shawn Springs (and in all likelihood, restructure 2 or 3 other deals)... so, there's not much of a net gain, trading off Springs for Clements... that's if they can come up with the best offer for him, and he even WANTS to come to DC... last offseason, the Skins were widely considered a team on the move, in a positive direction, but they obviously won't be seen that way by free agents this offseason... there won't be many of them who think that the Skins are one or two players away from Super Bowl contention, because they're not...

And when it comes to the pass rushing specialist that Baldinger talks about, the odds are good that the likes of a Dwight Freeney will never get to free agency, as the Colts will almost certainly franchise him...

IOW, the Skins might be good for 2-3 midlevel free agent moves this offseason, or one or two more if they opt for lesser talents... the ONLY way they can create significant cap room is to blow up their roster and start over, and they're not about to do that...

So to sum up, though the Skins will be able to employ the same mortgage the future type tactics they've used in recent years to free up some cap room, there's gonna be a LOT of available cap room for a LOT of teams, and thus there will be pricey bidding wars for the best talent... and if the Skins want to get into that kind of bidding war, they'll be good for one or two free agents, tops... to do that, they've gonna have to cut loose some of their current players, including some who still have some game...

The Skins are more than one or two players away from serious contention...

 

[lkelly]

I don't understand the discussion of Gibbs stepping aside so Saunders can work his magic. All the talk on Dan Snyder owned radio programs in the Richmond area has been that Gibbs took back control of the offense in the last month or so (coinciding with the improvement). Gibbs has tried to deflect the subject by saying that all decisions are signed off on by the whole coaching staff (much like the way that Jerry claims universal approval over decisions when Parcells is running the show). Saunders was in control of the offense in the preseason when it stunk, during the early part of the season when it stunk, and likely right up to the point where Brunell sat down. Once Campbell came in I think they knew that he had no chance with Saunders' 1,000 page playbook so Gibbs stepped in and implemented the ground-based attack we see now.

As a Dallas fan I hope that they go back to the Saunders offense debacle.

The biggest issue with the Skins is their personnel strategy. They toss aside the draft and throw big money at mediocre players. If Baldinger can't see that then he's blind (or just writing an article targeted towards Skins fans).

 

[Cajuncowboy]

The theory here is, that if they keep re-printing the same old story, eventually they HAVE to be right.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

I have heard talk that the Commanders will target Buffalo CB Nate Clement in the offseason. I don't believe they have many draft picks, didn't they give up 2 picks in the T.J. Duckett trade and another one to trade up for Rocky McIntosh?.

The Bills will either sign him or will franchise him... he won't be going anywhere in my opinion.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

They had to get shot in the butt with luck to beat us... and they've also lost to some rather bad teams, haven't they??



Uhhh, I never said anything about "cap jail"... but the plain truth is, the Skins have the second lowest amount of cap room going into this offseason of any team in the NFL... they have under 1 million in cap room, the Steelers have only 150 thou...

On the other end of the scale, the Niners will have over FORTY TWO MILLION... the Boys will have 21.5 mil (with the possibility of creating more by letting the likes of Al Singleton or Al Johnson move on), and that only ranks them 19th best in the NFL... all told, there will be a dozen teams with at or just barely under 30 million to spend...

What this means is there will be a LOT of money out there for free agents, which means the price for free agents is about to shoot through the roof... now, the Skins can create some more cap room, but they don't have a chance of creating enough to be competitive in the bidding for the really good free agents this year... they'll be doing well to create much more than 10-12 million dollars in cap room, which would leave about 25 other teams in the NFL with greater cap flexibility...

Example-- there are rumors they want Nate Clements, who will be the best CB on the market... problem is, the only way they could ever hope to sign him would be to cut Shawn Springs (and in all likelihood, restructure 2 or 3 other deals)... so, there's not much of a net gain, trading off Springs for Clements... that's if they can come up with the best offer for him, and he even WANTS to come to DC... last offseason, the Skins were widely considered a team on the move, in a positive direction, but they obviously won't be seen that way by free agents this offseason... there won't be many of them who think that the Skins are one or two players away from Super Bowl contention, because they're not...

And when it comes to the pass rushing specialist that Baldinger talks about, the odds are good that the likes of a Dwight Freeney will never get to free agency, as the Colts will almost certainly franchise him...

IOW, the Skins might be good for 2-3 midlevel free agent moves this offseason, or one or two more if they opt for lesser talents... the ONLY way they can create significant cap room is to blow up their roster and start over, and they're not about to do that...

So to sum up, though the Skins will be able to employ the same mortgage the future type tactics they've used in recent years to free up some cap room, there's gonna be a LOT of available cap room for a LOT of teams, and thus there will be pricey bidding wars for the best talent... and if the Skins want to get into that kind of bidding war, they'll be good for one or two free agents, tops... to do that, they've gonna have to cut loose some of their current players, including some who still have some game...

The Skins are more than one or two players away from serious contention...

Actually SB if you substitute Adams, Bledsoe and Owens for Singleton and Johnson the amount of cap space available for the Cowboys would be above 40 million. Both Singleton and Johnson are FA's after this season so they are already "figured" into the cap space of 20 mil.

 

[VACowboy]

They may be some players away from contention, but they've got playoff talent. The numbers don't tell the whole story, IMHO.

 

[MissionCoach]

Pre Season Champions......yet AGAIN!!!:dissskin:

Do they EVEN have any DRAFT Picks or Salary Cap Room at ALL Next Year??? :skins:

 

[UVAwahoos]

Yep...it definitely feels like I've been told to "watch out" for this garbage team about 6 years in a row now. The only things I've seen are a half dead coach and midget owner who hangs with Tom Cruise. Not much football to say the least.

 

[pancakeman]

I think I feel like analyzing Baldinger's analysis... could be fun...

This dumb article wasn't worthy of your attention, but great job skewering it!

 

[ElGatoGrande]

Besides death and taxes, they need to add the Commander's underachieving to the only "sure things" in life. At some point though, you've got to figure that an already talented team that drafts high every year is going to turn the corner eventually (if they quit trading away their draft picks )

 

[CowboysNumeroUno]

Last year the Dolphins won this award...Where did it get them?

 

[BigDFan5]

The Bills will either sign him or will franchise him... he won't be going anywhere in my opinion.

Michael, the 1 year deal Clements signed with Buffalo stipulates that they can not franchise him again this next season. and it is said to be very doubtful they resign him

 

[Da Hammer]

Wake me up when the Deadskins ever live up to their pre-season expectations... you can even add the Arizona Cardinals to that list...