CFZ Starters from UDFA rookie class more likely than starters from Rounds 4-7

[Jumbo075]

Years ago, I did a historical analysis on players who are undrafted free agents vs. players picked on Day 3 of the draft. This is a little bit unfair, because teams typically get 10-15 rookies who are undrafted, and only an average of 4.25 players per team who are drafted in the in rounds 4-7. So, if 25% of the players drafted in rounds 4-7 become starters, that is only 1 player per team from rounds 4-7. But if 20% of undrafted players become starters, which is a lower percentage, that still means 2-3 future starters who began their careers as undrafted free agents.

The Bottom line, though, is that there are more NFL starters in the NFL who came to the league as undrafted players than there are who were drafted in rounds 4-7. It is one case where quantity trumps quality. The sheer volume of undrafted players means even if a lower percentage make it, you will still get more starters from your undrafted rookies than from the back half of the draft.

So, don't sleep on the undrafted players the Cowboys may sign tonight.

 

[big dog cowboy]

Years ago, I did a historical analysis on players who are undrafted free agents vs. players picked on Day 3 of the draft.

Some really great points. I'd really like to see the data of updated analysis up to this year.

 

[conner01]

That is true though one big reason is there are lots more UDFA than 4 rounds of draft picks
But you can certainly hit on them sometimes and just as important many are nice role players and ST players

 

[xwalker]

Years ago, I did a historical analysis on players who are undrafted free agents vs. players picked on Day 3 of the draft. This is a little bit unfair, because teams typically get 10-15 rookies who are undrafted, and only an average of 4.25 players per team who are drafted in the in rounds 4-7. So, if 25% of the players drafted in rounds 4-7 become starters, that is only 1 player per team from rounds 4-7. But if 20% of undrafted players become starters, which is a lower percentage, that still means 2-3 future starters who began their careers as undrafted free agents.

The Bottom line, though, is that there are more NFL starters in the NFL who came to the league as undrafted players than there are who were drafted in rounds 4-7. It is one case where quantity trumps quality. The sheer volume of undrafted players means even if a lower percentage make it, you will still get more starters from your undrafted rookies than from the back half of the draft.

So, don't sleep on the undrafted players the Cowboys may sign tonight.

Game: Person that get the most tails, wins.
If I get 15 coin flips and you get 4, I'll win.

 

[Jumbo075]

Some really great points. I'd really like to see the data of updated analysis up to this year.

My analysis was over 10 years ago, so it is possible it has changed. But the Cowboys have a starting right tackle who was undrafted (Terence Steele) and he replaced another guy (La’el Collins) who was also undrafted. Collins initially replaced another undrafted player (Ronald Leary) who was the starter at Left Guard. That is about 10 -11 years, so far, of the Cowboys having a starting offensive lineman who was undrafted as a rookie.

 

[Jumbo075]

Game: Person that get the most tails, wins.
If I get 15 coin flips and you get 4, I'll win.

That’s the point I was making. Exactly.

 

[TequilaCowboy]

Good observation. I would agree that the raw talent level between players taken in rounds 4-7 is generally quite similar and equal to talent of undrafted players. The difference is the wrapping.

 

[nyc-cowboy]

Seems then all the more reason to use the day 3 picks to move up in the draft...

 

[plasticman]

The Cowboys got some great UDFA's even when the draft was 17 or more rounds. A few of them are in the ROH.

Cliff Harris, a HOFer, wasn't drafted when they went 20 rounds. Drew Pearson wasn't drafted after 17 rounds.

Dan Reeves, Cornell Green, Dave Manders, Bennie Barnes, Everson Walls, Michael Downs, Bill Bates, all undrafted when the drafts went much longer than 7 rounds.

It takes some great personnel experts and coaches to find and develop these guys and the Cowboys, under Tex and Gil were always in front.

There are several Cowboys drafted well below a 7th round. They would be UDFA by today's NFL. These are guys like Jethro Push, Larry Cole, Dave Edwards, Dannis Thurman, Kevin Gogan, and Roger Staubach.