I never said Dak will not have a good season statistically this year. You are too focused on Dak within the framework of my point. My point is a generalization that QB’s that were good serviceable full-time QB’s typically do not continue to be so after they turn 33-34. They get injured, or their performance starts to drop. The guys that do continue (to succeed) past that age make up some of the most durable, but more importantly most talented and greatest QB’s of all time.
My argument is based on all time history. If you need to see some examples, I can give you a few. Troy Aikman fully retired after his age 34 season (and it was a dismal season). Tony Romo got injured after his age 34 season, and never came back as the full-time starter. Matt Ryan still got out there after 34, but you can tell his performance started to slip and he was on his way out of the league. Kirk Cousins took a season ending injury in his age 35 season, and Minnesota declined to bring him back and he signed on with Atlanta who also used their first round pick on a rookie to develop. Derek Carr does not have many years left in the tank and is 33. Alex Smith took a nasty injury in age 34 season and was lucky to survive let alone play again. GM’s see a Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Elway have great success in their mid to late 30’s and their owners tell them to get the job done within 2 years and they panic and latch on to an older guy that does not need much development. Kirk may have a good year this season, but who believes that he will be consistently good year in/year out now and available?
It’s like some people believe that because there have been QB’s that have had lots of success in their mid to late 30’s, that it’s the rule rather than the tiny exception to the rule. There are slews of other examples.