Sturm Debunks Dak and Dunk

[percyhoward]

And, the reason why Prescott has had success is due to him being able to consistently find open receivers and not recklessly throwing the ball into contested situations. He has also had the benefit of a strong running game, good protection, and game planning that fits his strengths. He is a remarkably smart player, on top of being poised and decisive in his throws.

That's not dink and dunk.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I've posted numbers. You've ignored them. I asked you questions regarding said numbers. You've ignored them. For the life of me, I can't figure out why.
The only numbers you've posted were the ones you got when you googled "red zone qb rating." Just a touch more research would lead most to the conclusion that that metric alone doesn't tell someone all that much.

You said Dak's play in the red zone hampers our ability to score. I posted that we are 4th in red zone TD%. Dak is 3rd in total red zone touchdowns (I even added the numbers up for you!).

I've asked you for any data that supports your hard-on for RZ QB rating. You've yet to produce anything other than pointing back to your initial post...about RZ QB rating.

My questions are meant to poke holes in your pathetically weak "argument"; choosing not to answer is your prerogative, but it's most certainly because if you do answer even one of them, your argument kind of falls flat. I've asked you some very simple questions (some were even "yes" or "no"). You've asked me to do a minimum of an hour worth of work and research.

I've asked you to provide one other shred of data or evidence that Dak isn't good in the red zone, and you've been unable to do it. I mean, come on.

What numbers?

You keep insisting that you can add his rushing TD to his passing numbers arbitrarily. You did an incomplete accounting and thought that was good enough.

Nevermind that my argument is about what happens when we run into teams like NYG, MIN, SEA, and PHI who have huge DT that can stymie our rushing attack. That should preclude adding the rushing TD to the total but you cannot see the forest because you are fixated on the tree of propping up your pet cat.

What you have not done is even attempted to justify your assertions about volatility and sample size. Given I've called you on it and you responded with typical machismo big timing I maintain that you cannot.

He is not a good passer in the red zone. It accentuates his issues in fitting throws and making quick reads. Deal with it.

 

[Outlaw Heroes]

Air yards per attempt is a better metric for finding out what the QB is doing that's working. Start with YPA, and just divide it into yards before and yards after the catch.

If accuracy isn't important and you just want to know what they're trying to do, you can look at the splits by target distance.

In other words, Dak's relatively high AYA shows that he isn't achieving his success (measured in terms of YPA) by simply dumping it off short and relying on the receiver to get YAC. His relatively high AYA shows, on the contrary, that his receivers are contributing relatively little to his high YPA.

That's helpful information. It does suggest that, in addition to being efficient, the offense Dak runs is predicated on deeper routes, requiring him to make deeper throws, than, say, a WCO.

But since a very healthy AYA of 6 can be achieved by an offense that runs nothing but 9 yard routes (assuming a 66.7% completion percentage, which ought to be easily achievable in an offense predicated on such short routes), AYA doesn't seem to weed out the dink and dunk offenses we want weeded out. The issue seems to be that accuracy swamps target depth in terms of contributing to a high AYA. But of course it's really target depth we're talking about when we are trying to identify a dink and dunk offense.

 

[Plankton]

That's not dink and dunk.

When did I say it was?

And, even if it were, who cares?

 

[percyhoward]

In other words, Dak's relatively high AYA shows that he isn't achieving his success (measured in terms of YPA) by simply dumping it off short and relying on the receiver to get YAC. His relatively high AYA shows, on the contrary, that his receivers are contributing relatively little to his high YPA.

That's helpful information. It does suggest that, in addition to being efficient, the offense Dak runs is predicated on deeper routes, requiring him to make deeper throws, than, say, a WCO.

But since a very healthy AYA of 6 can be achieved by an offense that runs nothing but 9 yard routes (assuming a 66.7% completion percentage, which ought to be easily achievable in an offense predicated on such short routes), AYA doesn't seem to weed out the dink and dunk offenses we want weeded out. The issue seems to be that accuracy swamps target depth in terms of contributing to a high AYA. But of course it's really target depth we're talking about when we are trying to identify a dink and dunk offense.

Dink-and-dunk offenses aren't based on a lot of 9-yard routes though. They're mostly 5 yards or less, with a great many of the targets (20-25%) being short of the LOS. The effect of such targets on AYA is like an incomplete pass -- or worse.

31 different QB have at least 200 pass attempts this season. The bottom 10 in percentage of attempts beyond 10 yards gives you the league's biggest dink-and-dunkers, with Sam Bradford leading the pack.

22 Rodgers 30.3%
23 Wentz 30.2%
24 Hoyer 30.0%
25 Keenum 29.1%
26 Brady 28.9%
27 Stafford 27.3%
28 Smith 27.0%
29 Brees 26.7%
30 Flacco 25.4%
31 Bradford 23.2%

Match that against the top 10 in air yards per attempt, and you won't see any dink-and-dunkers that need weeding out.

1 Winston 4.86
2 Ryan 4.84
3 Cousins 4.79
4 Mariota 4.71
5 Prescott 4.61
6 Luck 4.52
7 Newton 4.38
8 Siemian 4.34
9 Dalton 4.33
10 Wilson 4.33

 

[ROUSH8692]

Actually he did throw one to Dunbar that was called back due to a Smith holding penalty remember.

Nice defense, a play that didnt count

 

[ROUSH8692]

The fact that we geniunly have fans that aren't happy with Dak still is absolutely puzzling. Parts of this fanbase are like the twilight zone sometimes.

Sorry if some of us are used to a QB that doesnt look like a deer in the headlights against NYG with 2:00 left and only down by 3. TWICE

 

[ringmaster]

Nice defense, a play that didnt count

What part of it was called back do you not understand of course the play didn't count.

 

[Clarkson]

Given the lack of interceptions (one total) to bring down the rating that is remarkable.

Let's review after another week!

Green Bay, after putting up numbers on offense, dropped from 8 to 10! Oh no! I think they should worry about Rodgers' effectiveness.
Uh oh, the Pats' RZ QB rating dropped this week. Perhaps the more games Brady plays the worse it will get?? Pats may be in trouble.
Thanks to a beautiful game by Stafford, as we all saw, their RZ QB rating went UP. They must've had a good game.

Shockingly, Dallas' RZ QB rating went up over 3 points, and somehow jumped a great RZ team, the Cleveland Browns. And ya know, I'm disappointed in Dak. He had touchdowns of 21 and 25 yards, which don't count towards RZ QB rating. If only he weren't a bus driver and thought to let the team gain more yards before throwing a touchdown, the Cowboys RZ QB rating would've gone up even more, and maybe we could've scored more points and seen real success.

 

[Clarkson]

What numbers?

You keep insisting that you can add his rushing TD to his passing numbers arbitrarily. You did an incomplete accounting and thought that was good enough.

Nevermind that my argument is about what happens when we run into teams like NYG, MIN, SEA, and PHI who have huge DT that can stymie our rushing attack. That should preclude adding the rushing TD to the total but you cannot see the forest because you are fixated on the tree of propping up your pet cat.

What you have not done is even attempted to justify your assertions about volatility and sample size. Given I've called you on it and you responded with typical machismo big timing I maintain that you cannot.

He is not a good passer in the red zone. It accentuates his issues in fitting throws and making quick reads. Deal with it.

plz respond:

Do you know what arbitrarily means? How is adding his RZ pass TDs and rush TDs vs. the totals of other QBs when comparing RZ play "arbitrary"?
You said Prescott's "average" play in the red zone limits the team's red zone effectiveness, yet they are 4th in red zone TD%. How on earth does that make sense to you? Literally, answering ONE of my previous questions might actually make you re-think your poorly thought-out position, which is why you won't do it.

Also, if you think his QB rating in the red zone is "average," you may want to run the numbers or look up how to find the average.

Let's review after another week!

Green Bay, after putting up numbers on offense, dropped from 8 to 10! Oh no! I think they should worry about Rodgers' effectiveness.
Uh oh, the Pats' RZ QB rating dropped this week. Perhaps the more games Brady plays the worse it will get?? Pats may be in trouble.
Thanks to a beautiful game by Stafford, as we all saw, their RZ QB rating went UP. They must've had a good game.

Shockingly, Dallas' RZ QB rating went up over 3 points, and somehow jumped a great RZ team, the Cleveland Browns. And ya know, I'm disappointed in Dak. He had touchdowns of 21 and 25 yards, which don't count towards RZ QB rating. If only he weren't a bus driver and thought to let the team gain more yards before throwing a touchdown, the Cowboys RZ QB rating would've gone up even more, and maybe we could've scored more points and seen real success.

 

[BrassCowboy]

this thread should be closed already. Dak is our QB, he obviously can make all the throws this team needs, and Romo isn't even coming in to play when it is basically mop up duty. They are gonna go to Sanchez instead. Why, so Romo don't get injured??? really? when he hasnt played in two years, you worry about playing him for fear of injury? sounds like they are trying to do whatever they can to get more in a trade in the offseason. Don't need him getting injured or to actually be rusty.

either way, this team is moving forward with Dak and rightfully so. It is obvious ON THE FIELD he is our QB now and well into the future. If you don't like it, get over it