Sturm: Shortest average to-go distance on 3rd down for each team

[Hawkeye0202]

Interesting team stat.......

 

[jazzcat22]

Not really a huge difference . But I guess yard could mean a lot in some cases.
However. What are the stats of the teams getting a 1st down on 3rd down, they are at their average.

Meaning some team may have a 80% success rate on 3rd and 1, or 3rd and 3.
But what are the Rams success rate at their average of 5.7 yards. What are the Cowboys at their average of 6.6 yards. As to getting a 1st down.

How are they effected by FG range. Say the Rams K range is 55 yards. So they may go for a 1st down.
Cowboys Aubrey is 65 yards. They may only try to get 4 yards to take the FG if at the end of the half.

Reading too much into it. Not really.

 

[McKDaddy]

Those numbers surprise me. I would like to see a more detailed breakdown. For example if 5 drives have 3 yards to go on 3rd down, & 1 drive has 15 yards to go it makes the average 5 yards. That would indicate to me that the offense was consistently getting themselves into manageable down & distance but had one drive with penalty, sack, etc. that increases the average significantly.

 

[MapleLeaf]

A nothing burger.

If you wanted a better stat to think about in terms of performance that we should put our eyes on, how about "3rd Down Conversion by Opponents".

Last year's semi-finalists Rams, Hawks, Broncos and Patriots were in the top 12. Dallas last in the entire league.

We had trouble getting off the field, and that singularly impacted this team more than any other stat IMO.

 

[erod]

The only stats I pay any attention to (because most are just dumb and irrelevant) is turnovers for and against, redzone TD percentage, 3rd-down percentage, and 4th-down percentage.

However, those don't capture big play percentage offensively and defensively, so they don't apply to some teams.

And most importantly, a huge percentage of stats in general occur when games are already decided, so they skew reality anyway.

The eyes and brain know what they see.

 

[Parcells4Life]

When the difference is 6.6 to 6.8 whether you’re 7th or 14th, that’s not saying much.

 

[LouBrown]

A nothing burger.

How effective an offense is on first and second down is hardly a nothing burger lol

 

[erod]

How effective an offense is on first and second down is hardly a nothing burger lol

It is if you get the first down on first or second down. Then it doesn't even factor in.

 

[JBS]

How effective an offense is on first and second down is hardly a nothing burger lol

It sure isn’t. The fact that people think it is is mind blowing lol. Clueless

 

[Havic]

There is no question the team can move the ball but there TD red zone percentage is poor and they settled for too many field goals

 

[DallasEast]

Those numbers surprise me. I would like to see a more detailed breakdown. For example if 5 drives have 3 yards to go on 3rd down, & 1 drive has 15 yards to go it makes the average 5 yards. That would indicate to me that the offense was consistently getting themselves into manageable down & distance but had one drive with penalty, sack, etc. that increases the average significantly.

Stathead.com does not provide splits by a specific yard to go, but does so with ranges. Here is similar data for total number of drives (#Pl) with 3rd down situations of 1-3 yards to go or 10+ yards to go and average yards per play (Y/P) for last season:

3rd & 1-3

Team	#Pl	Avg ToGo	Y/P	All 1D	Passing Y/A	Rushing Y/A
Vikings	50​	1.62​	1.56​	21​	-0.7​	2.7​
Bengals	62​	1.71​	3.02​	37​	3.1​	2.7​
Raiders	66​	1.71​	3.03​	35​	3.8​	2.1​
Browns	53​	1.72​	3.98​	34​	4.9​	3.6​
Texans	63​	1.75​	5.52​	37​	7.9​	3.2​
Patriots	63​	1.78​	5.52​	36​	8.5​	3.4​
Saints	69​	1.78​	3.71​	45​	5​	2.7​
Chiefs	75​	1.81​	3.68​	47​	3.1​	4​
Steelers	65​	1.82​	4.23​	41​	6​	2.8​
Seahawks	61​	1.82​	3.61​	40​	4.3​	3​
Jets	58​	1.84​	2.79​	37​	1.2​	3.2​
Chargers	79​	1.84​	5.89​	53​	5.3​	6.4​
Falcons	61​	1.85​	4.61​	36​	7​	2.5​
Bears	62​	1.85​	3.9​	40​	5.1​	3.4​
Dolphins	42​	1.86​	3.29​	23​	3.3​	3.1​
Ravens	63​	1.86​	4.63​	35​	4.3​	4.9​
Packers	82​	1.87​	5.16​	49​	7.6​	3.7​
Buccaneers	67​	1.88​	4.1​	42​	4.5​	3.8​
49ers	69​	1.88​	4.68​	46​	7.2​	2.9​
Broncos	70​	1.89​	3.81​	40​	4.3​	3​
Bills	77​	1.9​	5.55​	50​	6.7​	5​
Lions	54​	1.91​	4.74​	33​	6.9​	2.7​
Cowboys	59​	1.92​	5.8​	38​	7.6​	2.8​
Washington	59​	1.93​	2.17​	29​	0.8​	2.7​
Colts	59​	1.93​	6.05​	39​	7.9​	4.5​
Cardinals	63​	1.98​	5.79​	43​	4.8​	6.6​
Jaguars	56​	1.98​	4.11​	30​	7.2​	2.4​
Rams	81​	2​	5.11​	44​	6.8​	2.7​
Eagles	44​	2​	4.45​	27​	4.2​	4.5​
Titans	65​	2.02​	4.25​	33​	3.7​	3.9​
Giants	61​	2.03​	5.67​	38​	9.4​	2.9​
Panthers	58​	2.1​	3​	32​	2.4​	3.1​

3rd & 10+

Team	#Pl	Avg ToGo	Y/P	All 1D	Passing Y/A	Rushing Y/A
Dolphins	59​	12.47​	4.49​	11​	4.2​	2.5​
Steelers	62​	12.53​	7.1​	16​	7.4​	0​
Rams	37​	12.57​	3.81​	4​	4.4​	1.8​
49ers	51​	12.71​	7.78​	16​	8.5​	5.6​
Buccaneers	63​	12.71​	5.43​	13​	4.7​	7.4​
Eagles	65​	12.74​	8.51​	18​	10.5​	4.4​
Cowboys	51​	12.9​	5.59​	6​	5.5​	4.9​
Broncos	63​	13.13​	8.06​	14​	8.3​	6.7​
Falcons	51​	13.2​	3.82​	5​	3.6​	3.3​
Bills	44​	13.25​	5.77​	10​	6.3​	4.5​
Lions	56​	13.27​	4.71​	8​	4.9​	3​
Cardinals	76​	13.3​	5.14​	16​	3.8​	7.2​
Bears	60​	13.4​	6.5​	11​	6.2​	6.3​
Patriots	49​	13.41​	9.35​	15​	10.4​	1.5​
Jets	59​	13.47​	4.39​	6​	2.5​	7.9​
Titans	66​	13.47​	5.45​	10​	5.4​	4.6​
Ravens	45​	13.53​	6.91​	10​	7.5​	6.1​
Bengals	60​	13.55​	7.52​	16​	8.4​	2.9​
Giants	67​	13.58​	7.52​	15​	8.2​	6.4​
Chiefs	62​	13.68​	5.05​	9​	4.4​	5.5​
Seahawks	54​	13.74​	6.37​	9​	4.6​	9.2​
Vikings	53​	13.74​	3.83​	9​	2.7​	3.9​
Packers	46​	13.78​	8.2​	12​	8​	10.6​
Washington	54​	13.81​	6.65​	15​	6.2​	7.8​
Panthers	50​	13.88​	4.56​	7​	3.8​	5.9​
Texans	68​	13.9​	6.19​	13​	5.3​	7.4​
Saints	50​	13.98​	6.26​	6​	6.2​
Raiders	66​	14.17​	6.2​	12​	6.3​	5.2​
Jaguars	68​	14.22​	6.81​	14​	7.3​	4.2​
Colts	49​	14.33​	8.76​	12​	9.7​	5.8​
Browns	76​	14.45​	5.33​	10​	4.8​	7​
Chargers	59​	14.58​	7.44​	14​	6.4​	10.4​

 

[McKDaddy]

Stathead.com does not provide splits by a specific yard to go, but does so with ranges. Here is similar data for total number of drives (#Pl) with 3rd down situations of 1-3 yards to go or 10+ yards to go and average yards per play (Y/P) for last season:

Thanks for the info. Gonna have to study this some.

So, is the "All 1D" the number of times the team converted?

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

A nothing burger.

If you wanted a better stat to think about in terms of performance that we should put our eyes on, how about "3rd Down Conversion by Opponents".

Last year's semi-finalists Rams, Hawks, Broncos and Patriots were in the top 12. Dallas last in the entire league.

We had trouble getting off the field, and that singularly impacted this team more than any other stat IMO.

This is not about "what impacted the team the most". Great idea for another thread BUT...

But of course a better defense will help everything tremendously. But the offense better tend the garden too...like faster starts, controlling the clock...and TDs instead of FG attempts.

So you want to take the easy road hammer the defense....and not even side eye the offense?

 

[thunderpimp91]

I’m not really sure what to make of this information…my guess is these teams at the top of the list are good at avoiding negative plays like sacks and penalties.

 

[DallasEast]

Thanks for the info. Gonna have to study this some.

So, is the "All 1D" the number of times the team converted?

Yes. I probably should have changed that column header to something like 3rd Down Conversions, but I did it pretty quickly.

 

[gtb1943]

Seahags were 19th on that list
So you can be SB champs and be lousy at this

 

[MarionBarberThe4th]

Interesting team stat.......

Footballs cool in the way it comes down to such small advantages. Like you really gotta claw your way down the field sometimes.

 

[Kwyn]

Not really a huge difference . But I guess yard could mean a lot in some cases.
However. What are the stats of the teams getting a 1st down on 3rd down, they are at their average.

Meaning some team may have a 80% success rate on 3rd and 1, or 3rd and 3.
But what are the Rams success rate at their average of 5.7 yards. What are the Cowboys at their average of 6.6 yards. As to getting a 1st down.

How are they effected by FG range. Say the Rams K range is 55 yards. So they may go for a 1st down.
Cowboys Aubrey is 65 yards. They may only try to get 4 yards to take the FG if at the end of the half.

Reading too much into it. Not really.

Those are actually huge differences. It’s not about a yard as opposed to two yards being nothing more than how far to the end zone

Early down success, play calling flex, 3rd down conversion and sustaining drives, all become much easier achieve

And, points. I asked ai for some stats. Really just had it add average points for each team in the list

Top 7 Teams

Rank	Team	Avg. 3rd-Down Distance	Offensive PPG
1	Rams	5.7 yards	27.8 PPG
2	Bills	6.2 yards	28.1 PPG
3	49ers	6.4 yards	23.6 PPG
4	Packers	6.4 yards	24.5 PPG
5	Ravens	6.5 yards	24.1 PPG
6	Saints	6.5 yards	20.5 PPG
7	Cowboys	6.6 yards	28.3 PPG

---

Bottom 7 Teams (Ranks 26–32)

Rank	Team	Avg. 3rd-Down Distance	Offensive PPG
26	Dolphins	7.3 yards	18.4 PPG
27	Raiders	7.3 yards	16.6 PPG
28	Giants	7.4 yards	15.4 PPG
29	Cardinals	7.5 yards	21.9 PPG
30	Eagles	7.5 yards	23.1 PPG
31	Jaguars	7.6 yards	18.8 PPG
32	Browns	7.9 yards	16.1 PPG

Why are the eagles and cardinals outliers?

Fourth down aggression and conversion
Dual threat QBs
Excellent red zone performance

 

[BleedSilverandBlue]

A nothing burger.

If you wanted a better stat to think about in terms of performance that we should put our eyes on, how about "3rd Down Conversion by Opponents".

Last year's semi-finalists Rams, Hawks, Broncos and Patriots were in the top 12. Dallas last in the entire league.

We had trouble getting off the field, and that singularly impacted this team more than any other stat IMO.

No, this is simply the offensive version of the statistic you are referencing on defense.

Third down conversion % and yards to go tells a huge story when you put them together.

If Dallas gets its act together on defense, this is a team that can challenge in the playoffs.

 

[Kwyn]

Seahags were 19th on that list
So you can be SB champs and be lousy at this

They were a true statistical outlier

It was a few things.
Red zone efficiency and terrific defense.

They also were so explosive that they were getting first downs and scoring on 1st and 2nd down at a higher rate than anyone.

Rheyb scored the third most points but did a ton of it by skipping thied down altogether