T.Y. Hilton just got $39MM guaranteed

[tyke1doe]

Is it easier to take Antonio Brown out of a game than Dez Bryant? I've seen enough Steelers games to see that teams do all sorts of things to try to slow the guy down with little success.

Obviously it's easier to throw red-zone TDs to someone like Dez Bryant, but in the end game what I am really wondering is if that is anymore valuable in the grand scheme of things of being shifty, fast, an excellent route runner, and the ability to separate and put distance between the WR and the coverage.

I look at the WR1s for the last 5 Superbowl champions and none of them had a WR who was more than 6-1 and majority of the them where less than 6 foot:

• 2014 NE, Edelman, 5-10
• 2013 Seattle Tate, 5-10
• 2012 Baltimore Boldin, 6-1
• 2011 Giants Cruz 6-0
• 2010 GB Jennings, 5-11

Best I can tell none of these deals lamented the fact that their leading WRs weren't a 6-3, 215 jump ball receiver.

Well done.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

How will the Colts cap be in shambles in two years? According to Over the Cap, they are fine in cap space through 2017.

And their free agents spending spree this offseason can have little effect at all on the 2017 cap. Andre Johnson can be cut in 2017 with no dead money, same with Gore. Trent Cole comes off the books in 2016.

Hilton's deal changes the math a bit and Luck certainly will change the math a lot, but they don't seem to be in any trouble of being a cap disaster any time soon.

I don't care about the cap. The Colts lacks a lot of young talent.

 

[Stash]

How will the Colts cap be in shambles in two years? According to Over the Cap, they are fine in cap space through 2017.

And their free agents spending spree this offseason can have little effect at all on the 2017 cap. Andre Johnson can be cut in 2017 with no dead money, same with Gore. Trent Cole comes off the books in 2016.

Hilton's deal changes the math a bit and Luck certainly will change the math a lot, but they don't seem to be in any trouble of being a cap disaster any time soon.

Luck's contract will be far and away the richest in NFL history. That will prove taxing for any team. The Colts are living on borrowed time now, as they're still getting great QB play for way below market price.

And the Colts still have to get a deal done with their starting left tackle and TE Coby Fleener too.

But, like the Seahawks after paying Russell Wilson, everything tightens up when that bill comes due.

 

[tyke1doe]

Is a "jump ball" TD worth more than the ability to shake a defender (or two) loose on a critical 3rd and 5 play?

You don't get to the redzone unless you can accumulate enough 1st downs to move between the 20s.

The Antonio Browns, Ty Hiltons and Randall Cobbs of the world are all roughly 5-10, 180-190 lb range and and all of them were uber productive last year. If anything, we are seeing a resurgence of smaller WRs moving into the Top 10 receiver group vs previous years where it was dominated by 6-1 to 6-4 big body type WRs.

You're on fire.

You're going to see more smaller, quicker receivers particularly as the rules change to favor offenses more than defenses.

 

[Seven]

Just for the record......it's T.Y. Hilton.

 

[Apollo Creed]

Hilton has 19 TDs his entire career.

Dez had 16 last year alone.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Is a "jump ball" TD worth more than the ability to shake a defender (or two) loose on a critical 3rd and 5 play?

You don't get to the redzone unless you can accumulate enough 1st downs to move between the 20s.

The Antonio Browns, Ty Hiltons and Randall Cobbs of the world are all roughly 5-10, 180-190 lb range and and all of them were uber productive last year. If anything, we are seeing a resurgence of smaller WRs moving into the Top 10 receiver group vs previous years where it was dominated by 6-1 to 6-4 big body type WRs.

The best WRs in the league by consensus are some combination of...

Calvin Johnson (6'5)
Dez Bryant (6'2)
AJ Green (6'4)
Julio Jones (6'3)
Demaryius Thomas (6'3)
Antonio Brown (5'10)
Odell Beckham (6'0)
Jordy Nelson (6'3)
Alshon Jeffrey (6'4)
Larry Fitzgerald (6'3)
Brandon Marshall (6'4)
Mike EVans (6'5)
Sammy Watkins (6'1)
Vincent Jackson (6'5)
Randall Cobb (5'10)
T.Y. Hilton (5'9)

We can squabble about who should be added or taken from this list....but what we can't argue about that "smaller WRs" are moving into the top 10.

Everything you say is not supported by facts.

 

[Avery]

NFL Zone -> This Way

 

[Sydla]

What IS 39MM?

Is that Ma-Million?

LOL. Finance background here.

39M is 39 thousand

39MM is 39 million

 

[perrykemp]

The best WRs in the league by consensus are some combination of...

Calvin Johnson (6'5)
Dez Bryant (6'2)
AJ Green (6'4)
Julio Jones (6'3)
Demaryius Thomas (6'3)
Antonio Brown (5'10)
Odell Beckham (6'0)
Jordy Nelson (6'3)
Alshon Jeffrey (6'4)
Larry Fitzgerald (6'3)
Brandon Marshall (6'4)
Mike EVans (6'5)
Sammy Watkins (6'1)
Vincent Jackson (6'5)
Randall Cobb (5'10)
T.Y. Hilton (5'9)

We can squabble about who should be added or taken from this list....but what we can't argue about that "smaller WRs" are moving into the top 10.

Everything you say is not supported by facts.

Forget consensus, whatever that is, and just look at production.

5 of the top 10 WRs last year in terms of receiving yards were under 6'0":

#1 Brown (5-10)
#5 Sanders (5-11)
#6 Hilton (5-9)
#7 Tate (5-10)
#10 Beckham (5-11)

I see a definite increase in the number of WRs under 6-0 starting to towards the Top 25 or so of NFL WRs.

 

[CATCH17]

I don't understand this post. If a player provides a valuable niche, why not reward him?
Hilton provides a speed element to the Colts offense. He's a valuable player.
Truth be told, every player with a specific position is a "niche" player, unless I'm misunderstanding your use of the word "niche."

It's just my opinion.. I don't value a guy like that.. Especially when he hasn't been apart of their base offense in the past & you draft a guy like Phillip Dorsett who is the same player.

 

[Seven]

LOL. Finance background here.

39M is 39 thousand

39MM is 39 million

Gotcha..............

 

[AsthmaField]

As NFL defensive backs get taller and taller in order to combat guys like Dez, Calvin Johnson, D Thomas, AJ Green, Julio Jones, etc., the shorter WR's will have success against them.

Guys who are 6'3" tall simply cannot change directions like a guy who is 5'10". The tall corners can run down the sideline with a guy like Dez and have a chance to keep him from making the catch. That is why they are necessary for today's defenses. However, guys like Cole Beasley and Randle Cobb can make cuts that the tall guys simply can't make. Those guys win with separation and speed instead of catch radius, height and jumping ability.

The big DB's are having some trouble with Beasley, Cobb, etc.

However, Cole has Dez and Cobb has Nelson to take the double teams. If those smaller guys were the #1 WR's for their team and they were getting the double coverage and were getting bump and run with a safety over the top, they would be far less effective.

So, I think that the smaller guys are having success because the taller DB's can't keep up with them and because they're flying under the radar a little bit in the shadow of true #1 WR's.

Antonio Brown is a little bit of an anomaly in the NFL. He is pretty special in a lot of ways and guys like Beasley, Cobb, and T.Y. Hilton don't necessarily belong in the same category as Brown.

It is all cyclical anyway. In the 70's, the CB's were like Mel Blount size wise. Bigger guys who could mix it up with the WR's. Then, they changed the rules to keep DB's hands off WR's and in the 80's, a lot of teams started getting receivers like the Smurfs in Washington and the Claytons in Miami with Marino. Defensive backs had to be shorter and quicker guys like Darryl Green in order to cover those types of WR's. Most NFL teams had CB's in the 5'9" - 5'10" range and they were fine for the most part. Then in the 90's, along came Michael Irvin, Hermin Moore, etc. and those shorter guys were having real trouble with them. I still remember Darryl Green, the perennial All-Pro having fits with Michael Irvin. Green would have good coverage on Irvin but Michael would just out muscle him for position and catch the ball anyway.

That was somewhat of a turning point as team started moving more towards larger CB's to cover them. By the 2010's, everyone was trying to find the larger CB's to combat the Megatrons of the world. So now, the smaller, nifty WR's are again finding room and success with their quickness and speed, and the teams with all large corners are finding them more and more difficult to defend against. The rules now favor the receivers more than they ever have and small guys will continue to be effective.

 

[aikemirv]

Hilton has 19 TDs his entire career.

Dez had 16 last year alone.

How many points did their offense score? It does not matter whether you were the one getting the team down there or the one going over the goal line if the team scores. If you are one of the main guys that keeps the drive alive and have the team putting points on the board then I don't really see the difference.

You could argue that the guy who keeps the drive going is just as important and maybe even more important if your Defense sucks.

 

[CATCH17]

Forget consensus, whatever that is, and just look at production.

5 of the top 10 WRs last year in terms of receiving yards were under 6'0":

#1 Brown (5-10)
#5 Sanders (5-11)
#6 Hilton (5-9)
#7 Tate (5-10)
#10 Beckham (5-11)

I see a definite increase in the number of WRs under 6-0 starting to towards the Top 25 or so of NFL WRs.

Last year was a non typical year for this.

They are pointing towards rule changes as to why the little guy is making a comeback.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Forget consensus, whatever that is, and just look at production.

5 of the top 10 WRs last year in terms of receiving yards were under 6'0":

#1 Brown (5-10)
#5 Sanders (5-11)
#6 Hilton (5-9)
#7 Tate (5-10)
#10 Beckham (5-11)

I see a definite increase in the number of WRs under 6-0 starting to towards the Top 25 or so of NFL WRs.

Yards is not the sole domain of effective WR. I'd argue a blend of yards and tds is more important.

Also interesting you included 5 of the top 10 as a statistic when looking at yards but ignored that 3 of the top 4 were not under 6'0.

And in terms of touchdowns 2 of the top 3 were larger than 6'0 and only 4 of the top 16 were shorter than 6'0.

Yeah there is no shift occurring.

 

[CATCH17]

Yards is not the sole domain of effective WR. I'd argue a blend of yards and tds is more important.

Also interesting you included 5 of the top 10 as a statistic when looking at yards but ignored that 3 of the top 4 were not under 6'0.

And in terms of touchdowns 2 of the top 3 were larger than 6'0 and only 4 of the top 16 were shorter than 6'0.

Yeah there is no shift occurring.

I agree with you but even TD's were up last year for these .. Remember last pre-season? Every other play was illegal contact. So that carried over into the year and if you can't touch a small guy at all they can kill you.

 

[perrykemp]

Yards is not the sole domain of effective WR. I'd argue a blend of yards and tds is more important.

Also interesting you included 5 of the top 10 as a statistic when looking at yards but ignored that 3 of the top 4 were not under 6'0.

And in terms of touchdowns 2 of the top 3 were larger than 6'0 and only 4 of the top 16 were shorter than 6'0.

Yeah there is no shift occurring.

Don't forget the 3rd leg of the measuring WR performance -- receptions.

6 out of the top 10 NFL WRs as measured by receptions were under 6'0":

#1 Brown
#5 Sanders
#6 Tate
#8 Edelman
#9 Cobb
#10 Beckham

 

[perrykemp]

I agree with you but even TD's were up last year for these .. Remember last pre-season? Every other play was illegal contact. So that carried over into the year and if you can't touch a small guy at all they can kill you.

That's probably the biggest piece of 'why' small WRs where effective last year -- it's increasingly becoming difficult for defenders to touch these guys without being called. The advantage of the big-body WRs prior to the rule change was they were big enough to fight of the press, jamming at the line, and more contact past 5 yards. With the new rules emphasis, now the little guys get to run free more.

 

[Nightman]

I really think teams are going to regret these 13-15m WR deals.

I know the cap is growing, but so are the number of top wideouts.