Tanking Doesn't Work!

[garyo1954]

Not all teams keep the pick.

The draft is all about probability.

It is proven without having to post draft history that higher picks and more picks improve the probability of success.

QBs have a low success rate.

A fair number of Super Bowls have been won by #1 overall picks.
Aikman
Payton Manning
Eli Manning
Elway

You are not using the stats correctly.

For example there is a high fail rate for QBs in the draft but the success rate at #1 is higher than the success rate at #16.

The best probability is to already have a quality QB then use the top pick to trade down and surround the quality veteran QB with as much talent as possible.

The Cowboys could forfeit all remaining games and still won't get #1 overall...

I went in with the questions...
Who finished with the worst record?
Who got the first pick?
How much did they improve?
Where did they finish?

I answered all those so I refuse to discuss the use of stats when you refuse to understand what they say and what they are based on. Your claim they are used incorrectly goes against what they intended to answer.

Without real numbers to back up what you say you are displaying overconfidence in your belief. Since you believe certain things to be true and can find small samples to establish a truth, then your belief must be true. But that's not always the case when you deal with greater numbers.

Too, you have to establish some boundaries of what successful means prior to determining if success was achieved. And that's going way off point, a rabbit hole I chose not to go down before I know the boundaries of what success means.

You are welcome to do any stats in any way you choose about whatever you want.

 

[ultron]

The last time the Cowboys were 4-12 and essentially ‘tanked’, they got the 4th overall draft pick (2x rushing leader; Zeke and a franchise QB in the 4th round; Dak) and they were 13-3 the following season and the #1 seed in the NFC. That was just 5 short years ago.