Tanking Doesn't Work!

[Runwildboys]

I've heard it several times.

Wow. And they meant that literally? They weren't saying something like, "It doesn't matter when Jerry's the one making the picks", or something like that? Guess they never played any kind of pick up games, where they had to pick their teams from a limited group of people.

 

[garyo1954]

Who said anything about going last to first in one season?

Glad you brought that up. I've been puzzling my brain over 75boyz post and realized "Worst to first" has several connotations. Yeah, my ignorance is showing.

Worst to first can mean as I used it going from the bottom of your division to the top.
In some cases is means just making the play-offs. I've notice in a few cases the writer mentions 1.4 teams a year go from the bottom of their division to making the play-offs, and the argument could be made they went from worst to first, but when you research the records you find the team finished in 2nd place in that division (Chiefs in 2012 and 2013 are one example). 2013 the Chiefs did have the #1 overall and many articles tout that team as being, "the only team in NFL history to pick #1 and be the last team to lose a game" (whatever that means). The 2013 Chiefs lost in the WC round.

Its a good point and something that should have been considered before posting the OP.

 

[Crazed Liotta Eyes]

Me do algebra? I married a math teacher!

But if you're really into that sort of thing...this is the Massy-Thaler paper (paper isn't the right word it's 63 pages), with formulas, charts, tables, and explanations, a brain buster in PDF form. Still working through it.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w11270

I'm pretty sure I like this dude. Don't even care about the Cowboy opinions.

 

[kskboys]

Wow. And they meant that literally? They weren't saying something like, "It doesn't matter when Jerry's the one making the picks", or something like that? Guess they never played any kind of pick up games, where they had to pick their teams from a limited group of people.

No, they were serious.

 

[Runwildboys]

No, they were serious.

Seriously stupid.

 

[75boyz]

Glad you brought that up. I've been puzzling my brain over 75boyz post and realized "Worst to first" has several connotations. Yeah, my ignorance is showing.

Worst to first can mean as I used it going from the bottom of your division to the top.
In some cases is means just making the play-offs. I've notice in a few cases the writer mentions 1.4 teams a year go from the bottom of their division to making the play-offs, and the argument could be made they went from worst to first, but when you research the records you find the team finished in 2nd place in that division (Chiefs in 2012 and 2013 are one example). 2013 the Chiefs did have the #1 overall and many articles tout that team as being, "the only team in NFL history to pick #1 and be the last team to lose a game" (whatever that means). The 2013 Chiefs lost in the WC round.

Its a good point and something that should have been considered before posting the OP.

If your whole intent was centered around one year and one year only, either picking first or going from worst to first in the standings then that's my bad man.

My probably failed understanding was that it could be more than one years worth of losing and drafting high towards building the team off more than one years worth of picks.

In my earlier post I tried using examples of both a very good draft haul of a couple of years or more but also off of one year too.

The Dolphins are a really good current example for this year of losing a few years, tanking last year and now seriously reaping the benefits.

So again if it was a one year and one year only involved post, my bad.

 

[garyo1954]

If your whole intent was centered around one year and one year only, either picking first or going from worst to first in the standings then that's my bad man.

Not a problem. I was curious where the miscommunication was and realized it was my fault.

I did go back and look for the teams that have gone from the bottom to the top of their division no matter what position they drafted and it getting labor intensive. so far I've found.....

2003 San Diego 4-12 2004 12-4 Lost WC
2007 Miami 1-15 2008 11-5 Lost WC
2000 New England 5-11 2001 11-5 Won SB
1999 New Orleans 3-13 2000 10-6 Lost Division
2005 New Orleans 3-13 2006 10-6 Lost Conference
2008 New Orleans 8-8 2009 13-3 Won SB
2000 Chicago 5-11 2001 13-3 Won Division
2004 Chicago 5-11 2005 11-5 Lost Division
2002 Carolina 7-9 2003 11-5 Lost SB
2003 Alanta 5-11 2004 11-5 Lost Conference
2006 Tampa Bay 4-12 2007 9-7 Lost WC
2004 Tampa Bay 5-11 2005 11-5 Lost WC
2009 KC 4-12 2010 10-6 Lost WC
2002 KC 8-8 2003 13-3 Lost Division
2005 Eagles 6-10 2006 10-6 Lost Division
2015 Cowboys 4-14 2016 13-3 Lost Division

Assume there are more since that wouldn't equal the 1.4 number given. Just a matter of finding them.

Apologies for the mix-up.

 

[fivetwos]

We aren’t picking 1st. We’re picking 3-4.

Remember 2015? Banged up squad, lost starting QB. Ended up 4-12. Solid draft picking 4th and ended up 13-3 the next year and one play from the NFC Championship.

One play from NFC Championship?

 

[75boyz]

There’s a difference between being a bad team and tanking vs being a decent team with a massive amount of injuries tanking....


Wonder why 2016 was so good?

Lol, it really ain't Rocket Science I tell ya.

 

[Jipper]

Lol, it really ain't Rocket Science I tell ya.

it’s ok...sometimes logic is not easily found

 

[xwalker]

The idea of going "worst to first" has ingrained itself. A team might go "worst to first" in their division but that doesn't equate to having the #1 pick.

Have a look at the last 21 years of Teams with the number 1 pick and where they ended up the following year. Most teams showed some improvement (there were no Texans in 2001 so there is nothing to improve on). Two teams the Rams and the Browns took a step back. All in all the average improvement for a team with the #1 pick is just 3.9 games. And 12 of the teams that picked #1 finished 4th in their Division the following year, two others finished 3rd. Only 4 teams in the past 21 years made the play-offs, and were out after the Wild Card game.

Year Draft Pos Team School Prior Next Change Finished
2000 Courtney Brown DE Cleveland Browns Penn St 2-14 3-13 1 6
2001 Michael Vick QB Atlanta Falcons Va.Tech 4-12 7-9 3 4
2002 David Carr QB Houston Texans Fresno St 0-0 4-12 0 4
2003 Carson Palmer QB Cincinnati Bengals USC 2-14 8-8 6 2
2004 Phillip Rivers QB San Diego Chargers NC St. 4-12 12-4 8 lost WC*
2005 Alex Smith QB San Francisco 49ers Utah 2-14 4-12 2 4
2006 Mario Williams DE Houston Texans NC St. 2-14 6-10 4 4
2007 JaMarcus Russell QB Oakland Raiders LSU 2-14 4-12 2 4
2008 Jake Long T Miami Dolphins Michigan 1-15 11-5 10 lost WC
2009 Matthew Stafford QB Detroit Lions Georgia 0-16 2-14 2 4
2010 Sam Bradford QB St. Lois Rams Oklahoma 1-15 7-9 6 2
2011 Cam Newton QB Carolina Panthers Auburn 2 -14 6-10 4 3
2012 Andrew Luck QB Indianapolis Colts Stanford 2-14 11-5 9 lost WC
2013 Eric Fisher T KC Chiefs Central Michigan 2-14 11-5 9 lost WC
2014 Jadevon Clowney DE Houston Texans South Carolina 2-14 9-7 7 2
2015 Jameis Winston QB Tampa Bay Bucs Florida St. 2-14 6-10 4 4
2016 Jared Goff QB Los Angeles Rams California 7-9 4-12 -3 3
2017 Myles Garrett DE Cleveland Browns Texas A&M 0-16 7-8-1 7 4
2018 Baker Mayfield QB Cleveland Browns Oklahoma 7-8-1 6-10 -1 4
2019 Kyler Murray QB Arizona Cardinals. Oklahoma 3-13 5-10-1 2 4
2020 Joe Burrow QB Cincinnati Bengals LSU 2-14 2-5-1 0 4

Of the 15 QBs taken #1 overall only 2, Luck and Rivers) made it to the play-offs their first year.
The Other two play-off teams took T (Fisher and Long).

Still think Tanking is for you?

* A note about Rivers. The Chargers drafted Eli Manning but swapped picks with the Giants.
​

Bad teams draft #1 overall.

Bad teams are likely to be bad the rookie year of those players.

 

[garyo1954]

Bad teams draft #1 overall.

Bad teams are likely to be bad the rookie year of those players.

Old news. It been that way for almost forever. I have no problem with that.

I've explained it several ways, and if you can't see it, it remains your choice. I'll still say tanking for the top pick does not increase your chances of achieving a Super Bowl or whatever your little heart desires.

Its the Loser's Curse.

 

[xwalker]

Old news. It been that way for almost forever. I have no problem with that.

I've explained it several ways, and if you can't see it, it remains your choice. I'll still say tanking for the top pick does not increase your chances of achieving a Super Bowl or whatever your little heart desires.

Its the Loser's Curse.

Not all teams keep the pick.

The draft is all about probability.

It is proven without having to post draft history that higher picks and more picks improve the probability of success.

QBs have a low success rate.

A fair number of Super Bowls have been won by #1 overall picks.
Aikman
Payton Manning
Eli Manning
Elway

You are not using the stats correctly.

For example there is a high fail rate for QBs in the draft but the success rate at #1 is higher than the success rate at #16.

The best probability is to already have a quality QB then use the top pick to trade down and surround the quality veteran QB with as much talent as possible.

The Cowboys could forfeit all remaining games and still won't get #1 overall...

 

[Clove]

At some point, you've gotta learn to win.

 

[Clove]

If you want to win a Super Bowl, you'd better work on getting a bad a** defense. History proves me point.

 

[Johnny23]

no its called organically losing.. that word is not real in a owner, Gms, players or coaches vocabulary's. Its fan narrative and really doesnt truly exist..

its seem to take on a life if it own for fans ..

The Houston Rockets tanked for Hakeem. There was a really good ESPN special on it and how they pulled it off. Also the Knicks finagled their way to landing Patrick Ewing a year later.

Sports teams aren't always on the up and up.

 

[Beast_from_East]

The idea of going "worst to first" has ingrained itself. A team might go "worst to first" in their division but that doesn't equate to having the #1 pick.

Have a look at the last 21 years of Teams with the number 1 pick and where they ended up the following year. Most teams showed some improvement (there were no Texans in 2001 so there is nothing to improve on). Two teams the Rams and the Browns took a step back. All in all the average improvement for a team with the #1 pick is just 3.9 games. And 12 of the teams that picked #1 finished 4th in their Division the following year, two others finished 3rd. Only 4 teams in the past 21 years made the play-offs, and were out after the Wild Card game.

Year Draft Pos Team School Prior Next Change Finished
2000 Courtney Brown DE Cleveland Browns Penn St 2-14 3-13 1 6
2001 Michael Vick QB Atlanta Falcons Va.Tech 4-12 7-9 3 4
2002 David Carr QB Houston Texans Fresno St 0-0 4-12 0 4
2003 Carson Palmer QB Cincinnati Bengals USC 2-14 8-8 6 2
2004 Phillip Rivers QB San Diego Chargers NC St. 4-12 12-4 8 lost WC*
2005 Alex Smith QB San Francisco 49ers Utah 2-14 4-12 2 4
2006 Mario Williams DE Houston Texans NC St. 2-14 6-10 4 4
2007 JaMarcus Russell QB Oakland Raiders LSU 2-14 4-12 2 4
2008 Jake Long T Miami Dolphins Michigan 1-15 11-5 10 lost WC
2009 Matthew Stafford QB Detroit Lions Georgia 0-16 2-14 2 4
2010 Sam Bradford QB St. Lois Rams Oklahoma 1-15 7-9 6 2
2011 Cam Newton QB Carolina Panthers Auburn 2 -14 6-10 4 3
2012 Andrew Luck QB Indianapolis Colts Stanford 2-14 11-5 9 lost WC
2013 Eric Fisher T KC Chiefs Central Michigan 2-14 11-5 9 lost WC
2014 Jadevon Clowney DE Houston Texans South Carolina 2-14 9-7 7 2
2015 Jameis Winston QB Tampa Bay Bucs Florida St. 2-14 6-10 4 4
2016 Jared Goff QB Los Angeles Rams California 7-9 4-12 -3 3
2017 Myles Garrett DE Cleveland Browns Texas A&M 0-16 7-8-1 7 4
2018 Baker Mayfield QB Cleveland Browns Oklahoma 7-8-1 6-10 -1 4
2019 Kyler Murray QB Arizona Cardinals. Oklahoma 3-13 5-10-1 2 4
2020 Joe Burrow QB Cincinnati Bengals LSU 2-14 2-5-1 0 4

Of the 15 QBs taken #1 overall only 2, Luck and Rivers) made it to the play-offs their first year.
The Other two play-off teams took T (Fisher and Long).

Still think Tanking is for you?

* A note about Rivers. The Chargers drafted Eli Manning but swapped picks with the Giants.
​

Teams that typically draft first overall are not tanking, they actually do suck that bad in like 0-16 bad.

So this analysis is kinda skewed.

 

[Johnny23]

Teams that typically draft first overall are not tanking, they actually do suck that bad in like 0-16 bad.

So this analysis is kinda skewed.

Exactly. When teams tank it's painfully obvious.

 

[bodi]

So you're ok with losing on purpose?

we got a bad team

 

[Ranching]

we got a bad team

Yes we do, but I'd like to see a few wins.