The way I'd look at it is this:
ignore last 2 years for providing longer returns.
Guys in bold I'd have considered better than Dak.
3 out of 27 Round 1 guys I consider actually better. --there are 3-4 more that you can argue are about the same.
So a 25% of so chance of getting ANOTHER Dak, and an 11% chance of surpassing Dak?
Yea I'm not gambling my high 1 on those odds.
2018:
1. Baker Mayfield --holding CLE back.
3. Sam Darnold --about to be traded
7. Josh Allen --putting it together finally this year.
10. Josh Rosen --lost job for mult teams.
32. Lamar Jackson --MVP CAND
2017:
2. Mitch Trubisky --lost job
10. Patrick --MVP
12. DeShaun Watson --Good QB with issues holding ball way too long.
2016:
1. Jared Goff, California, Rams -- Mid-level quick read guy.
2. Carson Wentz, North Dakota State, Eagles --High highs but very low lows.
26. Paxton Lynch, Memphis, Broncos --stalled out at back up.
2015:
1. Jameis Winston, Florida State, Buccaneers -- seems 20 years older. still a turnover machine.
2. Marcus Mariota, Oregon, Titans --back up.
2014:
3. Blake Bortles, Central Florida, Jaguars --back up
22. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M, Browns --on drugs
32. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville, Vikings --injury prone low level starter
2013:
16. EJ Manuel, Florida State, Bills --back up
2012:
1. Andrew Luck, Stanford, Colts --franchise guy before injury
2. Robert Griffin III, Baylor, Commanders --1 season of read option ended him.
8. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M, Dolphins --Long term growth and maturity have made him a plus starter.
22. Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State, Browns --we know all too well.
2011:
1. Cam Newton, Auburn, Panthers --High peak but lots of lows.
8. Jake Locker, Washington, Titans --bad.
10. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri, Jaguars --also bad.
12. Christian Ponder, Florida State, Vikings --really bad. sorry to his folks, he;s a local kid.
2010:
1. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma, Rams --rich beyond reason for doing nothing.
25. Tim Tebow, Florida, Broncos --great in college, better TE prospect in pros.