The case for making Guyton the 2024 swing tackle

[_sturt_]

Allow me please to more brazenly advocate tonight than ever before... Guyton may be the long-term answer, yet not be the short-term answer at LT.

Some already knew this stuff. I confess I did not. See below.






https://www.pff.com/news/draft-buyer-beware-2024-nfl-draft-prospects

Offensive line grading is one of the most stable and predictable data points for future NFL success, and Guyton doesn't check all of the boxes.

His grading profile from 2022 to 2023 is remarkably consistent, albeit at the low end of the spectrum. His 66.2 overall grade in 2022 is almost identical to his 66.3 grade in 2023. His pass-blocking grade was 72.9 in both years, which is respectable but not a great mark. His run blocking is the biggest concern, as he graded out at 62.1 in 2022 and 60.5 in 2023.

On inside-zone runs, Guyton earned a 58.1 grade, with a greater than 2-to-1 negative-to-positive-grade ratio. On all other runs, he recorded a near 1-to-1 ratio. With inside zone being the most prevalent run scheme in the NFL, teams will need to be mindful when considering the big man from Oklahoma.


https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/2024/05/10/cowboys-tyler-guyton-biggest-challenge/

Guyton specifically struggled with inside-zone runs at Oklahoma. The same inside-zone Brian Schottenheimer is famous for running as an offensive coordinator. Guyton’s negative grades on inside-zone runs beat out his positive grades more than 2-to-1.

A blown assignment on a running play may not sound like a significant event given total number of players involved in blocking for a running play, but the numbers tell a different tale: On a running play with zero negatively graded blocks, running plays historically have a 60.2% success rate. On plays with one or more negative graded blocks that success rate drops to 25.7%. Understandably the EPA follows suit, dropping from +0.27 to -0.27.

It shows one bad block can make all the difference in the running game and both phases of the game should be seen as single point failure areas for offensive linemen and not just pass-protection.

For Guyton, it’s not about the pancake blocks or the highlight-reel peaks in performance, it’s about cutting out the blown assignments and lowlight-reel valleys in performance.


If we get to Oxnard, and that appears to be the prevailing conclusion, of course, we have some alternatives in-house... the leading one likely being that you move Tyler to LT, and TJ to LG.

Me, I'd rather just take the proposition of Guyton starting off the table, given that almost no one believes he's going to be a capable left tackle for Dak and for the running game in week one. It's too important a position, in my opinion, to pencil him in there, and make it his job to lose.

Rather, I'm a proponent for going out of house for an cagey old veteran LT whose price on the open market probably is significantly slashed as a consequence that 2 of the last 3 seasons have been lost seasons for him healthwise... but supposedly, he is already deemed healthy for 2024, and conceivably, he could be attracted to a reunion with his old head coach. Sign 32 yr old David Bakhtiari to be the #1 for 2024, unless/until the kid just overwhelms and makes it irrational to keep him as the swing tackle... or unless/until injury forces Guyton into the line-up.

 

[HungryLion]

Request denied. Cowboys aren’t winning a Super Bowl this year. Doesn’t matter. Let
Him play and get experience.

 

[Havic]

They didnt draft him in the 1st to be a swing tackle. Bakhtiari is always hurt and tbh I thought he retired.

 

[exciter]

There’s a good chance they start the season with Richards getting help while playing heavy 12 personnel with Guyton taking over around week 6. Baktiari is a no go, too injury prone and a progress stopper at this point!

 

[_sturt_]

Cowboys aren’t winning a Super Bowl this year.

It's a whole other thread that I have zero interest in participating in.... but this just isn't how it works. It's altogether true that if your team has legit playoff aspirations going into any given season, there are simply too many variables that could go against you to presume that will be achieved... and likewise... there are simply too many variables that could go in your favor to presume you can't make the holy grail game.

I don't consider the presumptuous assertions to mean anything about a poster personally, but the comment itself is wildly pretentious.

To be fair to the comment, yes, if we knew that for a fact, that logic is sound.

To be fair to reality, we have every reason to presume a 4th trip to post season is plausible, and given that, you can't waste opportunities.

They didnt draft him in the 1st to be a swing tackle.

I can embrace that. But it's beside the point.

If the team's goal goes something like, "We want to be able to have consistency between our draft night hopes and our game one realities"... sure, that's fine.

That's not the team's goal, though. The paramount goal, I'm pretty sure if you were to ask around the decision-makers, is "We want to win all the games we can, regular season and post season." Hell, the primary decision-maker's job is on the line... what does he care about anything but that?

Bakhtiari is always hurt

Exactly. There are always tradeoffs. In this case, you get the chance to have a well-regarded player who you'd normally not be able to afford.

The caveat here, though, is exactly that... he has to be healthy... and he has to be cheap. Those are conditions of my advocacy.

 

[Havic]

Exactly. There are always tradeoffs. In this case, you get the chance to have a well-regarded player who you'd normally not be able to afford.

The caveat here, though, is exactly that... he has to be healthy... and he has to be cheap. Those are conditions of my advocacy.

I'm being for real when I say isn't he retired? I am almost for certain he is.

 

[_sturt_]

too injury prone and a progress stopper

So you're telling me that you worry he won't be able to play.

So you're telling me that you worry he will be able to play.

 

[_sturt_]

I'm being for real when I say isn't he retired? I am almost for certain he is.

I don't want to seem too snarky, so I'll just assure you that my internet search engine works really, really well... as, I'd bet, yours does as well.

 

[Rockport]

Allow me please to more brazenly advocate tonight than ever before... Guyton may be the long-term answer, yet not be the short-term answer at LT.

Some already knew this stuff. I confess I did not. See below.






https://www.pff.com/news/draft-buyer-beware-2024-nfl-draft-prospects

Offensive line grading is one of the most stable and predictable data points for future NFL success, and Guyton doesn't check all of the boxes.

His grading profile from 2022 to 2023 is remarkably consistent, albeit at the low end of the spectrum. His 66.2 overall grade in 2022 is almost identical to his 66.3 grade in 2023. His pass-blocking grade was 72.9 in both years, which is respectable but not a great mark. His run blocking is the biggest concern, as he graded out at 62.1 in 2022 and 60.5 in 2023.

On inside-zone runs, Guyton earned a 58.1 grade, with a greater than 2-to-1 negative-to-positive-grade ratio. On all other runs, he recorded a near 1-to-1 ratio. With inside zone being the most prevalent run scheme in the NFL, teams will need to be mindful when considering the big man from Oklahoma.


https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/2024/05/10/cowboys-tyler-guyton-biggest-challenge/

Guyton specifically struggled with inside-zone runs at Oklahoma. The same inside-zone Brian Schottenheimer is famous for running as an offensive coordinator. Guyton’s negative grades on inside-zone runs beat out his positive grades more than 2-to-1.

A blown assignment on a running play may not sound like a significant event given total number of players involved in blocking for a running play, but the numbers tell a different tale: On a running play with zero negatively graded blocks, running plays historically have a 60.2% success rate. On plays with one or more negative graded blocks that success rate drops to 25.7%. Understandably the EPA follows suit, dropping from +0.27 to -0.27.

It shows one bad block can make all the difference in the running game and both phases of the game should be seen as single point failure areas for offensive linemen and not just pass-protection.

For Guyton, it’s not about the pancake blocks or the highlight-reel peaks in performance, it’s about cutting out the blown assignments and lowlight-reel valleys in performance.


If we get to Oxnard, and that appears to be the prevailing conclusion, of course, we have some alternatives in-house... the leading one likely being that you move Tyler to LT, and TJ to LG.

Me, I'd rather just take the proposition of Guyton starting off the table, given that almost no one believes he's going to be a capable left tackle for Dak and for the running game in week one. It's too important a position, in my opinion, to pencil him in there, and make it his job to lose.

Rather, I'm a proponent for going out of house for an cagey old veteran LT whose price on the open market probably is significantly slashed as a consequence that 2 of the last 3 seasons have been lost seasons for him healthwise... but supposedly, he is already deemed healthy for 2024, and conceivably, he could be attracted to a reunion with his old head coach. Sign 32 yr old David Bakhtiari to be the #1 for 2024, unless/until the kid just overwhelms and makes it irrational to keep him as the swing tackle... or unless/until injury forces Guyton into the line-up.

So many posters here choose to take the negative side of every player. I don’t get it. Foreign to me.

 

[12+88=7]

Dallas didn't resign Smith because he was unreliable due to injuries, but now Dallas is going to sign another tackle that is injured more and even less reliable.

Totally genius.

I can't believe people get paid for this BS.

 

[Havic]

I don't want to seem too snarky, so I'll just assure you that my internet search engine works really, really well... as, I'd bet, yours does as well.

will see, pretty gruesome knee injury, may not be official but we will see if he plays again

 

[plasticman]

Nah! 1st round picks get thrown into the fire. It's tradition!

Don't worry. He'll learn pretty fast. O-linemen taken in the first round are not developed, they are unleashed. He'll make mistakes, draw penalties but it is strictly OJT. as long as he has the physicality to keep fighting.

If you draft a player in the first round and he is sitting in game #1 he had better be your next franchise quarterback. Any other situation then he is labeled a bust by a ruthless social media right out the gates.

 

[exciter]

So you're telling me that you worry he won't be able to play.

So you're telling me that you worry he will be able to play.

I’m saying he’ll take training camp snaps from players who need them. Then they’ll be playing catch up when he’s inevitably out for the season by week 4. They let Tyron go knowing they were going to replace him with someone who was going to take some licks. Let them take their licks!

 

[_sturt_]

take the negative side

I agree. This isn't an example of that, though. My paradigm is what is best for winning in 2024. Theirs tends to be how can I esteem my own football intelligence to be higher than the decision-makers. There is a difference. In this case, what is best for winning in 2024 is to let this not-ready-for-prime-time talent have time to develop, and in the meantime, insert into the mix a plausibly affordable and competent solution.

Dallas didn't resign Smith because he was unreliable due to injuries

True but false, with so much greater emphasis on false.

Dallas didn't resign Smith b/c they could not afford him... which is pretty much the story of not just his departure but a half-dozen others.

To the point here, it actually would have helped them to afford him if Smith hadn't been as healthy as he was last season.

If you draft a player in the first round and he is sitting in game #1 he had better be your next franchise quarterback. Any other situation then he is labeled a bust by a ruthless social media right out the gates.

True. I don't care. See "paradigm" above.

I’m saying he’ll take training camp snaps from players who need them. Then they’ll be playing catch up when he’s inevitably out for the season by week 4.

Let's think about that. What you've proposed is the difference between throwing him into the fire the first game with all the first team snaps versus throwing him into the fire in the 4th game having second team snaps.

The difference I see in that is, you've given your team a better shot at winning games 1-3. Period.

If we knew for a solid cold hard fact precisely what we are going to get from Guyton, then the equation changes. We do not. There is no way of assessing how much time he will need to become a legit starting caliber NFL left tackle, no matter how many snaps in preseason you figure into that mix.

To the point, if you and I are going to play some basketball, and you offer to spot me 3 points, I'm taking the 3 points. That's a bit simplistic but still effectively what Bakhtiari represents. Who knows, maybe I don't need that benefit. But I'm going to take what I can get in the short-term.

 

[75boyz]

Allow me please to more brazenly advocate tonight than ever before... Guyton may be the long-term answer, yet not be the short-term answer at LT.

Some already knew this stuff. I confess I did not. See below.






https://www.pff.com/news/draft-buyer-beware-2024-nfl-draft-prospects

Offensive line grading is one of the most stable and predictable data points for future NFL success, and Guyton doesn't check all of the boxes.

His grading profile from 2022 to 2023 is remarkably consistent, albeit at the low end of the spectrum. His 66.2 overall grade in 2022 is almost identical to his 66.3 grade in 2023. His pass-blocking grade was 72.9 in both years, which is respectable but not a great mark. His run blocking is the biggest concern, as he graded out at 62.1 in 2022 and 60.5 in 2023.

On inside-zone runs, Guyton earned a 58.1 grade, with a greater than 2-to-1 negative-to-positive-grade ratio. On all other runs, he recorded a near 1-to-1 ratio. With inside zone being the most prevalent run scheme in the NFL, teams will need to be mindful when considering the big man from Oklahoma.


https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/2024/05/10/cowboys-tyler-guyton-biggest-challenge/

Guyton specifically struggled with inside-zone runs at Oklahoma. The same inside-zone Brian Schottenheimer is famous for running as an offensive coordinator. Guyton’s negative grades on inside-zone runs beat out his positive grades more than 2-to-1.

A blown assignment on a running play may not sound like a significant event given total number of players involved in blocking for a running play, but the numbers tell a different tale: On a running play with zero negatively graded blocks, running plays historically have a 60.2% success rate. On plays with one or more negative graded blocks that success rate drops to 25.7%. Understandably the EPA follows suit, dropping from +0.27 to -0.27.

It shows one bad block can make all the difference in the running game and both phases of the game should be seen as single point failure areas for offensive linemen and not just pass-protection.

For Guyton, it’s not about the pancake blocks or the highlight-reel peaks in performance, it’s about cutting out the blown assignments and lowlight-reel valleys in performance.


If we get to Oxnard, and that appears to be the prevailing conclusion, of course, we have some alternatives in-house... the leading one likely being that you move Tyler to LT, and TJ to LG.

Me, I'd rather just take the proposition of Guyton starting off the table, given that almost no one believes he's going to be a capable left tackle for Dak and for the running game in week one. It's too important a position, in my opinion, to pencil him in there, and make it his job to lose.

Rather, I'm a proponent for going out of house for an cagey old veteran LT whose price on the open market probably is significantly slashed as a consequence that 2 of the last 3 seasons have been lost seasons for him healthwise... but supposedly, he is already deemed healthy for 2024, and conceivably, he could be attracted to a reunion with his old head coach. Sign 32 yr old David Bakhtiari to be the #1 for 2024, unless/until the kid just overwhelms and makes it irrational to keep him as the swing tackle... or unless/until injury forces Guyton into the line-up.

Yeah,
I'm good with your swing proposal too.
Myself, I prefer the Tyler to LT and Bass at LG suggestion.

Micah is likely to beat him like a drum in training camp just as he did Tyron in last year's training camp. So that may produce some early confidence problems.
But hopefully because of that, iron eventually sharpens iron into making him a very worthy LT starter.

Will hafta see what kind of growing pains or learning curve there is regarding his transition from college RT to NFL LT. Add in the valid technique and personal maturity issues and just hope it ain't too big a stage for him to jump right into.

We don't need to throw him out there as the starter if Tyler is the better performance option.

My biggest concern is actually Solari.
I hope the whole group's collective potential talent can be reached by overcoming his piss poor coaching.

jmo

 

[exciter]

I agree. This isn't an example of that, though. My paradigm is what is best for winning in 2024. Theirs tends to be how can I esteem my own football intelligence to be higher than the decision-makers. There is a difference. In this case, what is best for winning in 2024 is to let this not-ready-for-prime-time talent have time to develop, and in the meantime, insert into the mix a plausibly affordable and competent solution.


True but false, with so much greater emphasis on false.

Dallas didn't resign Smith b/c they could not afford him... which is pretty much the story of not just his departure but a half-dozen others.

To the point here, it actually would have helped them to afford him if Smith hadn't been as healthy as he was last season.


True. I don't care. See "paradigm" above.


Let's think about that. What you've proposed is the difference between throwing him into the fire the first game with all the first team snaps versus throwing him into the fire in the 4th game having second team snaps.

The difference I see in that is, you've given your team a better shot at winning games 1-3. Period.

If we knew for a solid cold hard fact precisely what we are going to get from Guyton, then the equation changes. We do not. There is no way of assessing how much time he will need to become a legit starting caliber NFL left tackle, no matter how many snaps in preseason you figure into that mix.

To the point, if you and I are going to play some basketball, and you offer to spot me 3 points, I'm taking the 3 points. That's a bit simplistic but still effectively what Bakhtiari represents. Who knows, maybe I don't need that benefit. But I'm going to take what I can get in the short-term.

No! He can split 1st team reps with Richards until they’re confident he’s ready.

 

[Risen Star]

Allow me please to more brazenly advocate tonight than ever before... Guyton may be the long-term answer, yet not be the short-term answer at LT.

Some already knew this stuff. I confess I did not. See below.






https://www.pff.com/news/draft-buyer-beware-2024-nfl-draft-prospects

Offensive line grading is one of the most stable and predictable data points for future NFL success, and Guyton doesn't check all of the boxes.

His grading profile from 2022 to 2023 is remarkably consistent, albeit at the low end of the spectrum. His 66.2 overall grade in 2022 is almost identical to his 66.3 grade in 2023. His pass-blocking grade was 72.9 in both years, which is respectable but not a great mark. His run blocking is the biggest concern, as he graded out at 62.1 in 2022 and 60.5 in 2023.

On inside-zone runs, Guyton earned a 58.1 grade, with a greater than 2-to-1 negative-to-positive-grade ratio. On all other runs, he recorded a near 1-to-1 ratio. With inside zone being the most prevalent run scheme in the NFL, teams will need to be mindful when considering the big man from Oklahoma.


https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/2024/05/10/cowboys-tyler-guyton-biggest-challenge/

Guyton specifically struggled with inside-zone runs at Oklahoma. The same inside-zone Brian Schottenheimer is famous for running as an offensive coordinator. Guyton’s negative grades on inside-zone runs beat out his positive grades more than 2-to-1.

A blown assignment on a running play may not sound like a significant event given total number of players involved in blocking for a running play, but the numbers tell a different tale: On a running play with zero negatively graded blocks, running plays historically have a 60.2% success rate. On plays with one or more negative graded blocks that success rate drops to 25.7%. Understandably the EPA follows suit, dropping from +0.27 to -0.27.

It shows one bad block can make all the difference in the running game and both phases of the game should be seen as single point failure areas for offensive linemen and not just pass-protection.

For Guyton, it’s not about the pancake blocks or the highlight-reel peaks in performance, it’s about cutting out the blown assignments and lowlight-reel valleys in performance.


If we get to Oxnard, and that appears to be the prevailing conclusion, of course, we have some alternatives in-house... the leading one likely being that you move Tyler to LT, and TJ to LG.

Me, I'd rather just take the proposition of Guyton starting off the table, given that almost no one believes he's going to be a capable left tackle for Dak and for the running game in week one. It's too important a position, in my opinion, to pencil him in there, and make it his job to lose.

Rather, I'm a proponent for going out of house for an cagey old veteran LT whose price on the open market probably is significantly slashed as a consequence that 2 of the last 3 seasons have been lost seasons for him healthwise... but supposedly, he is already deemed healthy for 2024, and conceivably, he could be attracted to a reunion with his old head coach. Sign 32 yr old David Bakhtiari to be the #1 for 2024, unless/until the kid just overwhelms and makes it irrational to keep him as the swing tackle... or unless/until injury forces Guyton into the line-up.

Find a new team.

 

[Risen Star]

Do not rule out Beebe helping out Guyton from Center.

 

[_sturt_]

with Richards

Where does this confidence come from? It's not even a lock that Richards makes the roster. He's got potential, but we have a pool of guys who fit that description at this point.

 

[_sturt_]

Find a new team.

Can always count on ol Risen to bring something important to a discussion. God love 'em.