The case for making Guyton the 2024 swing tackle

[HungryLion]

Exactly.


Dallas has no interest in winning this year. Their offseason proved that.

Play the young guys and get ready for 2025.

This is exactly my reasoning. This isn’t a “win now” season.

Let the young guys play and get experience.

 

[Rockport]

Can always count on ol Risen to bring something important to a discussion. God love 'em.

It’s only happened once and it was just a couple of days ago. I’m still recovering from shock.

 

[blueblood70]

A lot here, and I appreciate the attempt just scanning the first few lines... citing Tyler Smith as a case study for how Guyton could turn out. I'll only quickly argue that I've not made any "prediction." That's erroneous. I've made an observation based on the most recent scouting data available... and drawn from that observation, a conclusion of what makes sense, given the short-term objective beyond the long-term that we all seem to accept.

(Mothers Day things won't allow me to dive in any deeper for now, but I might be back.)

and like I said people called Tyler Smith a damn project brother it's the same thing they said he wouldn't be ready and he was supposed to play left guard and got thrown out to left tackle and still held his own this man was literally labeled a project people like yourself I'm not saying you did it but they said the same things they scouted him and the Cowboys were crazy for taking him and he was gonna be raw and he was gonna be a project and he literally was not so I'm saying I'd rather be on the positive and say they're gonna try to roll with the guy and there's gonna be a lot of competition in training camp for all the positions so may the best man win but i'm hoping this big boy gets the job.....

 

[Mr_437]

Plug n play LT.
We're not entertaining anything other than another great 1st rd pick on an OL.

 

[TequilaCowboy]

I am thinking more and more that barring injury, he will be the starter at LT come game one. Sink or swim, he will need to get some PT and get some reps. Hope he pans out because it will screw up the entire left side and maybe even center if he cannot go. Being a #1 pick doesn't help to being patient. oh well, this season will be a lame duck season for players and coaches.

 

[slick325]

He needs to be an immediate starter. Hopefully, he improves with every week. There will be ups and downs like with all rookies, but their 1st rounder needs to start.

 

[zekecowboy]

Allow me please to more brazenly advocate tonight than ever before... Guyton may be the long-term answer, yet not be the short-term answer at LT.

Some already knew this stuff. I confess I did not. See below.






https://www.pff.com/news/draft-buyer-beware-2024-nfl-draft-prospects

Offensive line grading is one of the most stable and predictable data points for future NFL success, and Guyton doesn't check all of the boxes.

His grading profile from 2022 to 2023 is remarkably consistent, albeit at the low end of the spectrum. His 66.2 overall grade in 2022 is almost identical to his 66.3 grade in 2023. His pass-blocking grade was 72.9 in both years, which is respectable but not a great mark. His run blocking is the biggest concern, as he graded out at 62.1 in 2022 and 60.5 in 2023.

On inside-zone runs, Guyton earned a 58.1 grade, with a greater than 2-to-1 negative-to-positive-grade ratio. On all other runs, he recorded a near 1-to-1 ratio. With inside zone being the most prevalent run scheme in the NFL, teams will need to be mindful when considering the big man from Oklahoma.


https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/2024/05/10/cowboys-tyler-guyton-biggest-challenge/

Guyton specifically struggled with inside-zone runs at Oklahoma. The same inside-zone Brian Schottenheimer is famous for running as an offensive coordinator. Guyton’s negative grades on inside-zone runs beat out his positive grades more than 2-to-1.

A blown assignment on a running play may not sound like a significant event given total number of players involved in blocking for a running play, but the numbers tell a different tale: On a running play with zero negatively graded blocks, running plays historically have a 60.2% success rate. On plays with one or more negative graded blocks that success rate drops to 25.7%. Understandably the EPA follows suit, dropping from +0.27 to -0.27.

It shows one bad block can make all the difference in the running game and both phases of the game should be seen as single point failure areas for offensive linemen and not just pass-protection.

For Guyton, it’s not about the pancake blocks or the highlight-reel peaks in performance, it’s about cutting out the blown assignments and lowlight-reel valleys in performance.


If we get to Oxnard, and that appears to be the prevailing conclusion, of course, we have some alternatives in-house... the leading one likely being that you move Tyler to LT, and TJ to LG.

Me, I'd rather just take the proposition of Guyton starting off the table, given that almost no one believes he's going to be a capable left tackle for Dak and for the running game in week one. It's too important a position, in my opinion, to pencil him in there, and make it his job to lose.

Rather, I'm a proponent for going out of house for an cagey old veteran LT whose price on the open market probably is significantly slashed as a consequence that 2 of the last 3 seasons have been lost seasons for him healthwise... but supposedly, he is already deemed healthy for 2024, and conceivably, he could be attracted to a reunion with his old head coach. Sign 32 yr old David Bakhtiari to be the #1 for 2024, unless/until the kid just overwhelms and makes it irrational to keep him as the swing tackle... or unless/until injury forces Guyton into the line-up.

Anonymous coach blasts Cowboys’ first-round pick Tyler Guyton with wild theory​

He [Guyton] never played at TCU, he was not an every-down player at Oklahoma last year, and he's drafted in the first round," a Big 12 coach said of Guyton, via ESPN. "That's because he's long. It really is crazy. People think if you're long and athletic, they can coach the rest."

That's extremely harsh on Guyton, especially when you consider that Georgia offensive tackle Amarius Mims didn't have vast starting experience at the college level, either. A towering presence and freakish athlete like Guyton, Mims was drafted No. 18 overall by the Bengals.


Length and athleticism are two of the most desirable traits an offensive lineman can have. That's obvious, but Guyton brings more to the table, including incredible footwork. He's also explosive off the snap, which allows him to contend with bendy edge rushers.

In the NFL, "the rest" can be coached up. The Cowboys have a strong track record of developing offensive linemen. Furthermore, their batting average on first-round linemen is as good as any team in the league.

Guyton isn't a finished product as a player. Far from it. But Dallas clearly believes it can mold the former Sooner into a high-end player. To imply that he was drafted solely because of his length and athleticism is insulting and unfair. He isn't the first "project" to get taken in round one and he won't be the last.

 

[Rockport]

and like I said people called Tyler Smith a damn project brother it's the same thing they said he wouldn't be ready and he was supposed to play left guard and got thrown out to left tackle and still held his own this man was literally labeled a project people like yourself I'm not saying you did it but they said the same things they scouted him and the Cowboys were crazy for taking him and he was gonna be raw and he was gonna be a project and he literally was not so I'm saying I'd rather be on the positive and say they're gonna try to roll with the guy and there's gonna be a lot of competition in training camp for all the positions so may the best man win but i'm hoping this big boy gets the job.....

There’s a lot of fans here that always try and find the negative about everything.

 

[_sturt_]

may the best man win

We agree.

Making it a real competition can only benefit the 2024 team.

(I mean, I get it, there are those who have already passed judgment on the 2024 team as-if already a lost season... entitled to that opinion, but I just totally reject that. It's unreasonable. Yes, and pretentious, but let's just stick with unreasonable. If your team is generally regarded as a post season threat, that's sufficient basis to try to optimize the results. Sure, things could go south. But sure, things also could go north... or, same effect, things could go south-er for other teams, leaving your team the opportunity to advance like never before.)

So, maybe I should have chosen a different title to the thread.

Maybe it should, instead have been called The Case for Replacing Edoga with Bakhtiara.

When I say it that way, it leaves open the possibility that Guyton wins the starting job, and that you upgrade your options at swing tackle... and yes, also true, if Guyton doesn't impress as being game one ready, you have a plausibly better option than kicking Tyler Smith to LT.

And again, yes, who knows what amount it will take to get Bakhtiara signed... who knows if Bakhtiara will stay healthy enough to matter. This is just making the point that Guyton's no slam dunk. Give yourself as good of an alternative as you can, within the boundaries of what the capped payroll can afford.

Sure, we have a good history with high OL picks. Sure, one can point to Tyler Smith as a success story in that vein. But if we were to look at that objectively, statistically, you're citing what is innately small sample size... and the Research Methods 501 grads around here are ready to explain why that's a severe weakness in the argument. In fact, one could make a decent argument that we're due for a regression to the league mean... and so, should anticipate some counterbalance to the success enjoyed for the last decade.

 

[_sturt_]

That's not really "data", though. Especially when it's based on PFF grades.

I disagree. It is data. You may argue that the data is flawed, but it is data. Someone has sat down, and using a plausibly consistent standard for judgment, graded what they saw... for player x, player y, player z, etc. There might be better out there. But this is one "data" set by the dictionary definition of the term.

 

[_sturt_]

The definition of pretentious: attempting to impress by affecting greater importance, talent, culture, etc., than is actually possessed.

Here's what Merriam-Webster.com has...

Characterized by pretension: such as making usually unjustified or excessive claims (as of value or standing).


It is an unjustified or excessive claim to say you believe the Cowboys have already eliminated themselves from contention for the holy grail in 2024. (But you're entitled to your opinion, of course.)

 

[Chocolate Lab]

I disagree. It is data. You may argue that the data is flawed, but it is data. Someone has sat down, and using a plausibly consistent standard for judgment, graded what they saw... for player x, player y, player z, etc. There might be better out there. But this is one "data" set by the dictionary definition of the term.

Okay, it's horribly flawed and completely useless data. Better?

It's not much different from Jerry grading Zeke to still be a lead back because he saw him on TV at New England. That's "data" also.

 

[gtb1943]

I disagree. It is data. You may argue that the data is flawed, but it is data. Someone has sat down, and using a plausibly consistent standard for judgment, graded what they saw... for player x, player y, player z, etc. There might be better out there. But this is one "data" set by the dictionary definition of the term.

flawed DATA is GARBAGE. Not hard to figure out that the old term garbage in garbage out applies here

 

[Coogiguy03]

Allow me please to more brazenly advocate tonight than ever before... Guyton may be the long-term answer, yet not be the short-term answer at LT.

Some already knew this stuff. I confess I did not. See below.






https://www.pff.com/news/draft-buyer-beware-2024-nfl-draft-prospects

Offensive line grading is one of the most stable and predictable data points for future NFL success, and Guyton doesn't check all of the boxes.

His grading profile from 2022 to 2023 is remarkably consistent, albeit at the low end of the spectrum. His 66.2 overall grade in 2022 is almost identical to his 66.3 grade in 2023. His pass-blocking grade was 72.9 in both years, which is respectable but not a great mark. His run blocking is the biggest concern, as he graded out at 62.1 in 2022 and 60.5 in 2023.

On inside-zone runs, Guyton earned a 58.1 grade, with a greater than 2-to-1 negative-to-positive-grade ratio. On all other runs, he recorded a near 1-to-1 ratio. With inside zone being the most prevalent run scheme in the NFL, teams will need to be mindful when considering the big man from Oklahoma.


https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/2024/05/10/cowboys-tyler-guyton-biggest-challenge/

Guyton specifically struggled with inside-zone runs at Oklahoma. The same inside-zone Brian Schottenheimer is famous for running as an offensive coordinator. Guyton’s negative grades on inside-zone runs beat out his positive grades more than 2-to-1.

A blown assignment on a running play may not sound like a significant event given total number of players involved in blocking for a running play, but the numbers tell a different tale: On a running play with zero negatively graded blocks, running plays historically have a 60.2% success rate. On plays with one or more negative graded blocks that success rate drops to 25.7%. Understandably the EPA follows suit, dropping from +0.27 to -0.27.

It shows one bad block can make all the difference in the running game and both phases of the game should be seen as single point failure areas for offensive linemen and not just pass-protection.

For Guyton, it’s not about the pancake blocks or the highlight-reel peaks in performance, it’s about cutting out the blown assignments and lowlight-reel valleys in performance.


If we get to Oxnard, and that appears to be the prevailing conclusion, of course, we have some alternatives in-house... the leading one likely being that you move Tyler to LT, and TJ to LG.

Me, I'd rather just take the proposition of Guyton starting off the table, given that almost no one believes he's going to be a capable left tackle for Dak and for the running game in week one. It's too important a position, in my opinion, to pencil him in there, and make it his job to lose.

Rather, I'm a proponent for going out of house for an cagey old veteran LT whose price on the open market probably is significantly slashed as a consequence that 2 of the last 3 seasons have been lost seasons for him healthwise... but supposedly, he is already deemed healthy for 2024, and conceivably, he could be attracted to a reunion with his old head coach. Sign 32 yr old David Bakhtiari to be the #1 for 2024, unless/until the kid just overwhelms and makes it irrational to keep him as the swing tackle... or unless/until injury forces Guyton into the line-up.

To play Swing Tackle that's why we have Richards I guess, but if you said to be our RT next season, I could start to see the light on this! LT might not be for him

 

[blueblood70]

We agree.

Making it a real competition can only benefit the 2024 team.

(I mean, I get it, there are those who have already passed judgment on the 2024 team as-if already a lost season... entitled to that opinion, but I just totally reject that. It's unreasonable. Yes, and pretentious, but let's just stick with unreasonable. If your team is generally regarded as a post season threat, that's sufficient basis to try to optimize the results. Sure, things could go south. But sure, things also could go north... or, same effect, things could go south-er for other teams, leaving your team the opportunity to advance like never before.)

So, maybe I should have chosen a different title to the thread.

Maybe it should, instead have been called The Case for Replacing Edoga with Bakhtiara.

When I say it that way, it leaves open the possibility that Guyton wins the starting job, and that you upgrade your options at swing tackle... and yes, also true, if Guyton doesn't impress as being game one ready, you have a plausibly better option than kicking Tyler Smith to LT.

And again, yes, who knows what amount it will take to get Bakhtiara signed... who knows if Bakhtiara will stay healthy enough to matter. This is just making the point that Guyton's no slam dunk. Give yourself as good of an alternative as you can, within the boundaries of what the capped payroll can afford.

Sure, we have a good history with high OL picks. Sure, one can point to Tyler Smith as a success story in that vein. But if we were to look at that objectively, statistically, you're citing what is innately small sample size... and the Research Methods 501 grads around here are ready to explain why that's a severe weakness in the argument. In fact, one could make a decent argument that we're due for a regression to the league mean... and so, should anticipate some counterbalance to the success enjoyed for the last decade.

Exactly, that's what I'm trying to convey it makes no sense to say get rid of tyron Smith because of salary versus age and the fact that he's at the end of his career same thing with Michael Gallup and last year it was Ezekiel Elliott then everybody wants to turn around and bring similar players in similar situations back for similar money that would make zero sense and I know we're used to maybe the Jones family doing stuff that doesn't seem to make sense but that would just be dumb business and they're not dumb at business it would make no sense to cut a guy like tyron Smith who's a fan favorite although most of us hypocrites have been saying for about four years now they hold on to their players too long and that he should have been gone years ago because he was being a progress stopper in many words and needed to retire I've heard that 1000 times in the last four years all over social media that it was time for tyron Smith to go but if you're gonna let tyron Smith go who's a fan favorite to bring over a Packer who's in a similar situation if he wants anywhere close to the same money tyron got that makes zero sense to me....​

I'm all for bringing on depth and talent here but if it doesn't make sense to me I'm a common sense guy I'm gonna have to poo poo it before it gets off the ground....

 

[_sturt_]

Okay, it's horribly flawed and completely useless data. Better?

Hey, don't get mad at me... you're the one who wants to re-define a word. I'm just humble enough to accept that the term fits, and I suppose just prude enough to ask we stick to the dictionary.

It's not much different from Jerry grading Zeke to still be a lead back because he saw him on TV at New England. That's "data" also.

Um. Can't buy that one. Jerry didn't have a set of criteria, as far as we would know, that he applied to all of the free agent RBs as he watched tape of each individual one.

Can argue that we don't know anything about PFF's graders to have a good grasp of how authoritative we should regard their decisions. But in terms of methodology, they're actually pretty sound in how they've set it up.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sport...s-graded-let-pff-explain-the-process-2584659/

 

[JW82]

Oh pff... stop it.

 

[_sturt_]

Richards

I'm unaware of anything that should give any confidence that Richards is going to be an asset anywhere. That jury is as much out as is the one for Waletzko, though Richards is more likely to get a chance to stick since he's only going into his second year. Bigly consequential training camp for Waletzko and for Ball. Both have to be healthy and both have to impress like never before. Off topic, but I'm among the minority who believe, if he can get healthy, Ball is going to be in this league awhile (maybe not with DAL) based on his run blocking. There's the reason they've been so intent to keep him. He's a road grater.

 

[jterrell]

If Guyton doesn't start, he still won't be the swing OT.
He would simply learn LT as the back up.
If they don't feel he can learn it fast enough for game 1 they certainly aren't going to ask him to play both.

Guyton is raw. He is a massive dude with plenty of athleticism, so his long-term future looks very bright, but he went 29th for a reason.
He has only 2 years of playing Tackle under his belt. Other guys had 3-5.
If he was playing as polished as Joe Alt he would have also gone that high.
But the NFL is a concentrated classroom environment.
He's already working with Duke now.
And you can't teach 6'7" 327 with enough agility to play h-back.

 

[MonsterD]

While I am very wary of Guyton there is no way Bakhtiari is a better option even in the present. Let Guyton play or if you can trade for some old vet that is better if Guyton looks completely lost in TC, then fine do that instead.