The case for making Guyton the 2024 swing tackle

[Kingofholland]

Cowboys have a big hole at LT, I can't see them starting anyone else unless the guy can't block at all.

 

[HungryLion]

It's a whole other thread that I have zero interest in participating in.... but this just isn't how it works. It's altogether true that if your team has legit playoff aspirations going into any given season, there are simply too many variables that could go against you to presume that will be achieved... and likewise... there are simply too many variables that could go in your favor to presume you can't make the holy grail game.

I don't consider the presumptuous assertions to mean anything about a poster personally, but the comment itself is wildly pretentious.

To be fair to the comment, yes, if we knew that for a fact, that logic is sound.

To be fair to reality, we have every reason to presume a 4th trip to post season is plausible, and given that, you can't waste opportunities.


I can embrace that. But it's beside the point.

If the team's goal goes something like, "We want to be able to have consistency between our draft night hopes and our game one realities"... sure, that's fine.

That's not the team's goal, though. The paramount goal, I'm pretty sure if you were to ask around the decision-makers, is "We want to win all the games we can, regular season and post season." Hell, the primary decision-maker's job is on the line... what does he care about anything but that?


Exactly. There are always tradeoffs. In this case, you get the chance to have a well-regarded player who you'd normally not be able to afford.

The caveat here, though, is exactly that... he has to be healthy... and he has to be cheap. Those are conditions of my advocacy.

Presumptuous sure. Although I feel really really confident in that prediction.

Pretentious? No. I’m just making a projection based on the reality of where the cowboys roster is right now. They are not even close to the best team in the league.

 

[_sturt_]

I stand by what I said, @HungryLion. You are not pretentious. (Or, if you are, I have no way of knowing that.) The comment... given the facts and reason cited in my post... is.

 

[Typhus]

I remember watching Tyron first walk onto the field his rookie season and I said "who is that enormous TE."

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Allow me please to more brazenly advocate tonight than ever before... Guyton may be the long-term answer, yet not be the short-term answer at LT.

Some already knew this stuff. I confess I did not. See below.






https://www.pff.com/news/draft-buyer-beware-2024-nfl-draft-prospects

Offensive line grading is one of the most stable and predictable data points for future NFL success, and Guyton doesn't check all of the boxes.

His grading profile from 2022 to 2023 is remarkably consistent, albeit at the low end of the spectrum. His 66.2 overall grade in 2022 is almost identical to his 66.3 grade in 2023. His pass-blocking grade was 72.9 in both years, which is respectable but not a great mark. His run blocking is the biggest concern, as he graded out at 62.1 in 2022 and 60.5 in 2023.

On inside-zone runs, Guyton earned a 58.1 grade, with a greater than 2-to-1 negative-to-positive-grade ratio. On all other runs, he recorded a near 1-to-1 ratio. With inside zone being the most prevalent run scheme in the NFL, teams will need to be mindful when considering the big man from Oklahoma.


https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/2024/05/10/cowboys-tyler-guyton-biggest-challenge/

Guyton specifically struggled with inside-zone runs at Oklahoma. The same inside-zone Brian Schottenheimer is famous for running as an offensive coordinator. Guyton’s negative grades on inside-zone runs beat out his positive grades more than 2-to-1.

A blown assignment on a running play may not sound like a significant event given total number of players involved in blocking for a running play, but the numbers tell a different tale: On a running play with zero negatively graded blocks, running plays historically have a 60.2% success rate. On plays with one or more negative graded blocks that success rate drops to 25.7%. Understandably the EPA follows suit, dropping from +0.27 to -0.27.

It shows one bad block can make all the difference in the running game and both phases of the game should be seen as single point failure areas for offensive linemen and not just pass-protection.

For Guyton, it’s not about the pancake blocks or the highlight-reel peaks in performance, it’s about cutting out the blown assignments and lowlight-reel valleys in performance.


If we get to Oxnard, and that appears to be the prevailing conclusion, of course, we have some alternatives in-house... the leading one likely being that you move Tyler to LT, and TJ to LG.

Me, I'd rather just take the proposition of Guyton starting off the table, given that almost no one believes he's going to be a capable left tackle for Dak and for the running game in week one. It's too important a position, in my opinion, to pencil him in there, and make it his job to lose.

Rather, I'm a proponent for going out of house for an cagey old veteran LT whose price on the open market probably is significantly slashed as a consequence that 2 of the last 3 seasons have been lost seasons for him healthwise... but supposedly, he is already deemed healthy for 2024, and conceivably, he could be attracted to a reunion with his old head coach. Sign 32 yr old David Bakhtiari to be the #1 for 2024, unless/until the kid just overwhelms and makes it irrational to keep him as the swing tackle... or unless/until injury forces Guyton into the line-up.

So we drafted another 1st round pick not based on College performance but potential based on metrics....awsome. it worked out so well in the past

 

[Creeper]

How about we let him compete for the starting job and let the best man win. The Cowboys should play the best combination of 5 OLmen whoever that might be.

 

[Rayman70]

nope. You aint drafting a kid to be the swing in rd 1. Never happening. Hes starting at LT week 1.

 

[HungryLion]

I stand by what I said, @HungryLion. You are not pretentious. (Or, if you are, I have no way of knowing that.) The comment... given the facts and reason cited in my post... is.

My prediction in no way shape or form fits the definition of pretentious. But whatever you say.

 

[75boyz]

How about we let him compete for the starting job and let the best man win. The Cowboys should play the best combination of 5 OLmen whoever that might be.

This.

 

[CATCH17]

Request denied. Cowboys aren’t winning a Super Bowl this year. Doesn’t matter. Let
Him play and get experience.

Exactly.


Dallas has no interest in winning this year. Their offseason proved that.

Play the young guys and get ready for 2025.

 

[75boyz]

So we drafted another 1st round pick not based on College performance but potential based on metrics....awsome. it worked out so well in the past

Pretty much.
Kneeland sure matches your description as well. Traits, RAS/combine testing and athleticism over pure game tape. And his in a weak college conference at that.

 

[exciter]

Where does this confidence come from? It's not even a lock that Richards makes the roster. He's got potential, but we have a pool of guys who fit that description at this point.

Make the roster? At minimum he’s the swing tackle for the next 3 seasons.
But hey, let’s try to look at this logically. Bakhtiari last contract was 4yr 92m. No one has even sniffed at him. That should signal he’s not willing to play for what anyone is willing to pay him. He has missed 42 games in the last 4 seasons including 16 last season. Green Bay was not only able to get by, but had a late season surge, including winning a playoff game with a 7th rounder. I think between our 1st round pick and 5th round pick we should be able to get by especially considering everything points to going a 12 personnel base providing help !

 

[blueblood70]

Allow me please to more brazenly advocate tonight than ever before... Guyton may be the long-term answer, yet not be the short-term answer at LT.

Some already knew this stuff. I confess I did not. See below.






https://www.pff.com/news/draft-buyer-beware-2024-nfl-draft-prospects

Offensive line grading is one of the most stable and predictable data points for future NFL success, and Guyton doesn't check all of the boxes.

His grading profile from 2022 to 2023 is remarkably consistent, albeit at the low end of the spectrum. His 66.2 overall grade in 2022 is almost identical to his 66.3 grade in 2023. His pass-blocking grade was 72.9 in both years, which is respectable but not a great mark. His run blocking is the biggest concern, as he graded out at 62.1 in 2022 and 60.5 in 2023.

On inside-zone runs, Guyton earned a 58.1 grade, with a greater than 2-to-1 negative-to-positive-grade ratio. On all other runs, he recorded a near 1-to-1 ratio. With inside zone being the most prevalent run scheme in the NFL, teams will need to be mindful when considering the big man from Oklahoma.


https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/2024/05/10/cowboys-tyler-guyton-biggest-challenge/

Guyton specifically struggled with inside-zone runs at Oklahoma. The same inside-zone Brian Schottenheimer is famous for running as an offensive coordinator. Guyton’s negative grades on inside-zone runs beat out his positive grades more than 2-to-1.

A blown assignment on a running play may not sound like a significant event given total number of players involved in blocking for a running play, but the numbers tell a different tale: On a running play with zero negatively graded blocks, running plays historically have a 60.2% success rate. On plays with one or more negative graded blocks that success rate drops to 25.7%. Understandably the EPA follows suit, dropping from +0.27 to -0.27.

It shows one bad block can make all the difference in the running game and both phases of the game should be seen as single point failure areas for offensive linemen and not just pass-protection.

For Guyton, it’s not about the pancake blocks or the highlight-reel peaks in performance, it’s about cutting out the blown assignments and lowlight-reel valleys in performance.


If we get to Oxnard, and that appears to be the prevailing conclusion, of course, we have some alternatives in-house... the leading one likely being that you move Tyler to LT, and TJ to LG.

Me, I'd rather just take the proposition of Guyton starting off the table, given that almost no one believes he's going to be a capable left tackle for Dak and for the running game in week one. It's too important a position, in my opinion, to pencil him in there, and make it his job to lose.

Rather, I'm a proponent for going out of house for an cagey old veteran LT whose price on the open market probably is significantly slashed as a consequence that 2 of the last 3 seasons have been lost seasons for him healthwise... but supposedly, he is already deemed healthy for 2024, and conceivably, he could be attracted to a reunion with his old head coach. Sign 32 yr old David Bakhtiari to be the #1 for 2024, unless/until the kid just overwhelms and makes it irrational to keep him as the swing tackle... or unless/until injury forces Guyton into the line-up.

Here let me make a case for fans to stop ,just stop it , stop making these predictions as if you know what's best for the team before we seen anything happen in training camp or preseason games..

let's watch, nobody had confidence in Tyler Smith, dude handled his business and wasn't even supposed to be the left tackle... he was a rookie left tackle, was he perfect ,Nope but somehow he stepped up and now he's where he's supposed to be and now he's even better... let the coaches figure it out.. I am not reading a single thing that you wrote because it makes no sense to make such suggestions before we even watch the kid have a chance to prove himself throughout training camp and preseason let's watch him in some games....​

By the way those suggesting somehow he Edoga or Richards or Wally or ball or any of these other dudes who had not even got a chance to start when we needed them most last year.. I mean I was waiting for Richards to get more snaps at left tackle last year and it never happened I was pulling for the guy... I would say that Guyton has more of a chance to be the starting left tackle game one then the rest of them, if , if the coaches see what they need to see in training camp in preseason....

That is sum up what I feel is going to happen is there is going to be a lot of camp battles, the center position is not being taken by a rookie without a fight it seems like Hoffman really wants it, so that's not a done deal, so nor do I think they're going to hand the job the guyton and I'm sure there's going to be a lot of fighting in camp to see who comes out as the starters on the offensive line...

The same thing's going to happen with the running backs and the number three wide receiver position,

This is why training camp and preseason is still important and I'm saying that to the NFL trying to get rid of preseason we need to see the young guys get real live snaps in preseason games which is also a reason fans are dumb for wanting to see our starters risk injury to play a meaningless game when we really need to see what we have in the young people...

So, there's a lot of position groups that as much as you hate the front office have drafted well enough the last two to three seasons has brought in enough decent free agents that there's going to be interesting battles all throughout training camp and preseason to win some of these open positions...

OH yeah , Speaking of which does Cooper rush get beat out by Trey Lance? does Cooper rush get traded or cut ??

stay tuned that is why we follow TC and watch preseason... I'd say that there are more open positions on this team right now than in battles to be had that it makes this offseason even more interesting even though a lot of y'all don't like it..

 

[blueblood70]

nope. You aint drafting a kid to be the swing in rd 1. Never happening. Hes starting at LT week 1.

Why I agree with you don't say never I mean someone else could step up and training camp you know like they're talking about Richards or someone but the word never should never come into play lol,,,, we do not know how he's gonna respond in training camp or preseason but it's gonna be fun to watch because I thought Richards had something too so there's gonna be a little bit of a battle and you don't know if steel struggles they could be even more positions they shuffle around because the last three years they brought in quite a few offensive lineman and some of them have a lot of promise so we don't know how they're gonna end up settling on the best 5... Some very interesting camp battles for sure...

 

[_sturt_]

My prediction in no way shape or form fits the definition of pretentious. But whatever you say.

Yes it is. Not it isn't. Yes it is. No it isn't.

My friend, if you want to post for the purpose of being persuasive, this isn't the path forward. Debunk something I said in support of the conclusion. I'm one of those who is willing to hear out others, and actually change my mind if merited.

Or don't... just keep doing this nothing burger kind of reply.

Or, better, reconsider what was put on the table in front of you, and acknowledge the cogency and validity of the line of reason. Not that I'll be back here today to read it--busy Sunday with Mothers Day and all. But eventually.

 

[_sturt_]

Here let me make a case for fans to stop ,just stop it , stop making these predictions as if you know what's best for the team before we seen anything happen in training camp or preseason games..

let's watch, nobody had confidence in Tyler Smith, dude handled his business and wasn't even supposed to be the left tackle... he was a rookie left tackle, was he perfect ,Nope but somehow he stepped up and now he's where he's supposed to be and now he's even better... let the coaches figure it out.. I am not reading a single thing that you wrote because it makes no sense to make such suggestions before we even watch the kid have a chance to prove himself throughout training camp and preseason let's watch him in some games....​

By the way those suggesting somehow he Edoga or Richards or Wally or ball or any of these other dudes who had not even got a chance to start when we needed them most last year.. I mean I was waiting for Richards to get more snaps at left tackle last year and it never happened I was pulling for the guy... I would say that Guyton has more of a chance to be the starting left tackle game one then the rest of them, if , if the coaches see what they need to see in training camp in preseason....

That is sum up what I feel is going to happen is there is going to be a lot of camp battles, the center position is not being taken by a rookie without a fight it seems like Hoffman really wants it, so that's not a done deal, so nor do I think they're going to hand the job the guyton and I'm sure there's going to be a lot of fighting in camp to see who comes out as the starters on the offensive line...

The same thing's going to happen with the running backs and the number three wide receiver position,

This is why training camp and preseason is still important and I'm saying that to the NFL trying to get rid of preseason we need to see the young guys get real live snaps in preseason games which is also a reason fans are dumb for wanting to see our starters risk injury to play a meaningless game when we really need to see what we have in the young people...

So, there's a lot of position groups that as much as you hate the front office have drafted well enough the last two to three seasons has brought in enough decent free agents that there's going to be interesting battles all throughout training camp and preseason to win some of these open positions...

OH yeah , Speaking of which does Cooper rush get beat out by Trey Lance? does Cooper rush get traded or cut ??

stay tuned that is why we follow TC and watch preseason... I'd say that there are more open positions on this team right now than in battles to be had that it makes this offseason even more interesting even though a lot of y'all don't like it..

A lot here, and I appreciate the attempt just scanning the first few lines... citing Tyler Smith as a case study for how Guyton could turn out. I'll only quickly argue that I've not made any "prediction." That's erroneous. I've made an observation based on the most recent scouting data available... and drawn from that observation, a conclusion of what makes sense, given the short-term objective beyond the long-term that we all seem to accept.

(Mothers Day things won't allow me to dive in any deeper for now, but I might be back.)

 

[Chocolate Lab]

I've made an observation based on the most recent scouting data available...

That's not really "data", though. Especially when it's based on PFF grades.

Scouts and projections are wrong all the time. There's a thread right now about how many said Mahomes couldn't even play, much less become one of the best QBs of all time.

 

[gtb1943]

Anyone taking PFF that seriously is not someone to listen to

 

[HungryLion]

Yes it is. Not it isn't. Yes it is. No it isn't.

My friend, if you want to post for the purpose of being persuasive, this isn't the path forward. Debunk something I said in support of the conclusion. I'm one of those who is willing to hear out others, and actually change my mind if merited.

Or don't... just keep doing this nothing burger kind of reply.

Or, better, reconsider what was put on the table in front of you, and acknowledge the cogency and validity of the line of reason. Not that I'll be back here today to read it--busy Sunday with Mothers Day and all. But eventually.

The definition of pretentious: attempting to impress by affecting greater importance, talent, culture, etc., than is actually possessed.

How is me predicting the cowboys won’t win a Super Bowl this year, me attempting to impress greater importance or talent than I actually possess?

I actually agreed with you when you said presumptive. It was presumptive. I’m presuming the cowboys won’t win a Super Bowl and are actually going through a mini rebuild style season.

 

[Mobinvans]

Guy seems good in college tape

Well se what happens