The curious case of Ezekiel Elliott

[erod]

In 2005, I remember watching Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, and Cadillac Williams go in the first five picks of the draft. Three of the first five picks were running backs, and colossal busts all of them.

They're not alone. We can name poor first-round RB choices all day long if you want to. And even more troubling is the fact that so many great running backs come much later in the draft.

Add to that, great running backs are....what? I'm not sure how to calculate their value these days. Teams win with or without them, and teams lose with or without them. They sell jerseys and bring us out of our seats because they're a fantastically fun watch and they're so easy to measure statistically. They've certainly always been my favorite players on the field, I admit, because I love the running game. Emmitt and Dorsett are my two favorites of all time.

But do they win? Are they really all that necessary to win? Is drafting them this early patently stupid in this era?

That was a rather long route to the question, Should Dallas draft Ezekiel Elliott?

No way, you say. I would tend to agree. Couple the bust potential of backs with the lack of necessity, and that adds up to a pass rusher, corner, or future quarterback instead. Right?

But this cat is different and deserves a second look. Elliott is a punishing runner who can break free and run away. This dude was used frequently as a lead blocker for crying out loud. He catches the ball beautifully, and he is a terrific pass protector who seems to love doing so. Romo's collar bone heard that.

A three-down back with speed, power, smarts, and a sturdy build. Elliott's completeness reminds me of Emmitt Smith or Adrian Peterson. Put him behind a line like this, and you have an inexpensive upgrade to a position that carried the water with Romo in 2014, and delivers the same tough style that Demarco Murray provided.

If Dallas doesn't take him, I don't think he lasts but a few more picks. Trading down is risky. Chicago would nab him in a heartbeat. Or Philly. Puke.

The simple truth is, no Romo, no season. So why not have Elliott and McFadden as a 1-2 punch, both of which can pass protect. Perhaps pound the football relentlessly and limit Romo's throws. Run clock. Be 2014 again right now.

Bosa scares me. Ramsey doesn't do enough now for this team. Future quarterbacks are the iffiest of risks, and wouldn't help a lick this year. Oregon linemen have no pedigree. And none of the other runners later have Elliott's all-around game.

I'm still generally not for drafting running backs in the first round, but this guy is different. He would make the biggest and most immediate impact of anyone in the draft.

And who doesn't want to say "Zeke!" for the next 10 years? I'm sold.

 

[calvin]

In 2005, I remember watching Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, and Cadillac Williams go in the first five picks of the draft. Three of the first five picks were running backs, and colossal busts all of them.

They're not alone. We can name poor first-round RB choices all day long if you want to. And even more troubling is the fact that so many great running backs come much later in the draft.

Add to that, great running backs are....what? I'm not sure how to calculate their value these days. Teams win with or without them, and teams lose with or without them. They sell jerseys and bring us out of our seats because they're a fantastically fun watch and they're so easy to measure statistically. They've certainly always been my favorite players on the field, I admit, because I love the running game. Emmitt and Dorsett are my two favorites of all time.

But do they win? Are they really all that necessary to win? Is drafting them this early patently stupid in this era?

That was a rather long route to the question, Should Dallas draft Ezekiel Elliott?

No way, you say. I would tend to agree. Couple the bust potential of backs with the lack of necessity, and that adds up to a pass rusher, corner, or future quarterback instead. Right?

But this cat is different and deserves a second look. Elliott is a punishing runner who can break free and run away. This dude was used frequently as a lead blocker for crying out loud. He catches the ball beautifully, and he is a terrific pass protector who seems to love doing so. Romo's collar bone heard that.

A three-down back with speed, power, smarts, and a sturdy build. Elliott's completeness reminds me of Emmitt Smith or Adrian Peterson. Put him behind a line like this, and you have an inexpensive upgrade to a position that carried the water with Romo in 2014, and delivers the same tough style that Demarco Murray provided.

If Dallas doesn't take him, I don't think he lasts but a few more picks. Trading down is risky. Chicago would nab him in a heartbeat. Or Philly. Puke.

The simple truth is, no Romo, no season. So why not have Elliott and McFadden as a 1-2 punch, both of which can pass protect. Perhaps pound the football relentlessly and limit Romo's throws. Run clock. Be 2014 again right now.

Bosa scares me. Ramsey doesn't do enough now for this team. Future quarterbacks are the iffiest of risks, and wouldn't help a lick this year. Oregon linemen have no pedigree. And none of the other runners later have Elliott's all-around game.

I'm still generally not for drafting running backs in the first round, but this guy is different. He would make the biggest and most immediate impact of anyone in the draft.

And who doesn't want to say "Zeke!" for the next 10 years? I'm sold.

I don't question the talent. What I question is whether its a wise allocation of resource to invest such capital at the position. How many SB teams recently have had a bellcow RB?

The NFL has changed and the rules are different than they were 10 years ago. Back then investing a top 5 pick on a RB was the smart move given how the league was. But today in a pass first league investing a top 5 pick at a position where the shelf life is on average 5 years seems like a waste. I would argue that you could get nearly similar production in Rds 3-5 while you use that top 5 pick at a more impact position (DE, QB, S).

 

[daveferr33]

I just can't get onboard with drafting a RB at #4.

 

[erod]

I just can't get onboard with drafting a RB at #4.

Me neither until lately. If he's special, imagine what that would do for this team. We'd certainly forget when he was drafted.

 

[calvin]

I don't question the talent. What I question is whether its a wise allocation of resource to invest such capital at the position. How many SB teams recently have had a bellcow RB?

The NFL has changed and the rules are different than they were 10 years ago. Back then investing a top 5 pick on a RB was the smart move given how the league was. But today in a pass first league investing a top 5 pick at a position where the shelf life is on average 5 years seems like a waste. I would argue that you could get nearly similar production in Rds 3-5 while you use that top 5 pick at a more impact position (DE, QB, S).

 

[robjay04]

Thing is about running backs, you CAN get a quality player in the mid rounds but you can say that about a lot of positions. You can land a DE in the 3rd round that can get you 6-8 sacks but what are the chances you are going to get an All Pro caliber player? Not quite as much.

The best running backs in the 10-15 years have been Adrian Peterson and Ladanian Tomlinson, both of them were top 10 picks. If you feel that Zeke has that potential, take him and don't think twice.

 

[JBell]

I don't question the talent. What I question is whether its a wise allocation of resource to invest such capital at the position. How many SB teams recently have had a bellcow RB?

The NFL has changed and the rules are different than they were 10 years ago. Back then investing a top 5 pick on a RB was the smart move given how the league was. But today in a pass first league investing a top 5 pick at a position where the shelf life is on average 5 years seems like a waste. I would argue that you could get nearly similar production in Rds 3-5 while you use that top 5 pick at a more impact position (DE, QB, S).

Congrats on your first like.

 

[Direwolf63]

Not interested in Elliott. We can get a perfectly good back in the 3rd round. The step down from Elliott to the 3rd round is not nearly as far as Wentz/Goff and a 3rd round QB. That's the difference between a potential franchise QB and a career backup.

You can get a good RB later in the draft.

Pick the QB at #4.

 

[erod]

I don't question the talent. What I question is whether its a wise allocation of resource to invest such capital at the position. How many SB teams recently have had a bellcow RB?

The NFL has changed and the rules are different than they were 10 years ago. Back then investing a top 5 pick on a RB was the smart move given how the league was. But today in a pass first league investing a top 5 pick at a position where the shelf life is on average 5 years seems like a waste. I would argue that you could get nearly similar production in Rds 3-5 while you use that top 5 pick at a more impact position (DE, QB, S).

All good points. I'd say Marshawn Lynch is the only example.

But how many team recently have had a bellcow offensive line? The combination of Elliott and this offensive line might be the second coming of Emmitt and his.

 

[erod]

Not interested in Elliott. We can get a perfectly good back in the 3rd round. The step down from Elliott to the 3rd round is not nearly as far as Wentz/Goff and a 3rd round QB. That's the difference between a potential franchise QB and a career backup.

You can get a good RB later in the draft.

Pick the QB at #4.

You can get a good running back later, yes.

But nothing like Elliott. He is the best power runner, the best speed runner, the best pass protector, the best pass catcher, and the most sturdily built running back in the draft. He has no negatives. He's not like the others.

 

[reddyuta]

Not interested in Elliott. We can get a perfectly good back in the 3rd round. The step down from Elliott to the 3rd round is not nearly as far as Wentz/Goff and a 3rd round QB. That's the difference between a potential franchise QB and a career backup.

You can get a good RB later in the draft.

Pick the QB at #4.

excellent point,you can win games with a good ground game but you need a good Defense to go along with with it.If your Defense is poor and cant generate TOs then you are in trouble and a good running game wont help you at all because you will be passing to catch up.

 

[texbumthelife]

I think the most significant impact of drafting Elliott at 4 has less to do with Elliott himself. I think taking the kid with that pick tells the league and your team that you have an identity and you don't give a rats *** what the league is doing, you're going to win games your way. I wouldn't call it a misappropriation of resources at all. I would call it a tactical decision and the rest of the league can shove it.You get a fifth year option at a position where that fifth year is generally the prime year. You get the best football player in the draft, a physical specimen and a kid who loves the game.

I don't care about positional value anymore. I want good football players who fit/have/create a winning identity for this team.

 

[Direwolf63]

You can get a good running back later, yes.

But nothing like Elliott. He is the best power runner, the best speed runner, the best pass protector, the best pass catcher, and the most sturdily built running back in the draft. He has no negatives. He's not like the others.

I respect your view. But no thanks.

This team needs a QB for the future to start training. Romo is another back injury away from being finished. It could happen in Game 1, Game 5, Game 12, etc. Who knows? But the prudent thing to do is to start getting ready today. It's called thinking proactively.

There will not be a better time than now to get one than right now, unless you want to go 4-12 again.

Get the QB. And get him at #4. Or higher if your scouts think he's that good.

 

[Alexander]

I just can't get onboard with drafting a RB at #4.

In most drafts, I would probably agree. But this draft is so odd in the fact a back is even close to being considered one of the top five players has to make you examine the possibility.

 

[LandryFan]

Me neither until lately. If he's special, imagine what that would do for this team. We'd certainly forget when he was drafted.

What would do it for me would be a trade down with SF...San Fran gets our 4th and 67th pick, we get their 7th and 37th pick (We lose 25 points on the trade chart in this trade, so it's pretty even). We could pick up some really good talent with picks 7, 34, and 37. Those two high second rounders also provide a means for trading back into round one if desired (points wise, the two second rounders would be worth the 14th pick in round one). A small trade down would certainly open up a lot of options in this draft...oh the intrigue that awaits!

 

[robjay04]

I don't question the talent. What I question is whether its a wise allocation of resource to invest such capital at the position. How many SB teams recently have had a bellcow RB?

I don't think is particularly relevant because you can win different ways in the league. The Seahawks have two SB appearances out of the last 3 taking advantage of their bellcow. The 49ers appeared as well doing pretty much the same thing. The Panthers may have not had a "traditional bellcow" but they were surely a run first team.

I believe OUR team is built to win with a very good running game, that much was proven in 2014.

 

[cowboyschmps3]

The whole board wanted AP,I've been on the Zeke wagon since the regular season lol, was hoping we would select in the 6-8 range instead of at 4 all season long so we wouldn't question the pick too early.

 

[cowboyblue22]

if you draft a qb with the fourth pick and romo goes down you are still going to finish the year 4 and 12 or worse. Elliot is the best player in this draft not just the best running back. he would make a huge difference in 2016.

 

[DeaconMoss]

The thing that worries me the most is we have to tackle him twice a year in Philly or New York. For that reason alone he is an option to consider.

 

[Alexander]

The thing that worries me the most is we have to tackle him twice a year in Philly or New York. For that reason alone he is an option to consider.

If you fear the player that much, you might as well take him for yourself.