The Dak Prescott 16

Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by Aerolithe_Lion, May 16, 2019.

  1. Aerolithe_Lion

    Aerolithe_Lion Well-Known Member

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    Ever seen that documentary, the Brady 6? The 6 quarterbacks taken in the 2000 draft prior to Tom Brady being selected? Hasn't Dak earned the right to get his own version by now, with everything he's done for the Star? Well hold onto your butts, we're about to cherry pick the hell out of some analytics. Welcome to...

    THE DAK PRESCOTT 16


    What is this? This is not an opinion piece, nor is it any kind of proof of concept. Instead, I'm going to list a series of statistical facts. You can then critique them however you please. If you feel they only prove that Dak is the one to lead Dallas to the promise land, then congratulations, I'm happy to help. If you feel it's somehow misleading, trollish, or even outright derogatory to your QB... despite being factually correct, then scream at the top of your lungs about how much it bothers you. Any reaction you want, let the board know. But even with your preconceived notions that you're already developing about what this might be, I'm going to repeatedly stress this isn't necessarily my perception of said quarterback, simply many possible outcomes in the multiverse of coincidental scenarios that surround these men.

    Firstly, the ground rules. I'm about to list a group of quarterbacks that share very specific, and extremely important connections with Dak Prescott. No, they didn't all go 12-4 as rookies. No, a lot of them haven't scored 20 passing and 5 rushing touchdowns in each of their first 3 seasons (which is still only 25 total touchdowns a year. Andy Dalton usually can muster more than that.. but apparently I'm somehow missing the historic shockwaves that comes along with it. That'll be the next thread maybe). But I have painstakingly constructed a list of exactly 16 men who fit 3 major criteria special to Dak Prescott's current contractual circumstance. Not 1, not a couple, or even as many as 5. SIXTEEN NFL Quarterbacks.

    What is it exactly that makes the Dak Prescott situation so special? Is it the fact that he's won a lot? Sure. But more importantly, it's because he's won a lot while not even being taken on day 1, or even day 2 of the NFL draft. Right out of the gate, 13 wins. 9 wins. 10 wins and a playoff W. But, but... he was not taken in the top 32 picks. What does that mean? It means the draft pundits did not think he had that u
    tmost potential to be elite. He proved he could start right away, absolutely. But still today, people question his ceiling. He was a 4th rounder for a reason. Do they miss on these guy sometimes? Of course. Russell Wilson. Tom Brady. Kurt Warner. Drafted (or undrafted) beyond the glorified top 32 selections, but Super Bowl champions all of them.

    But the 16, they are different from that list. So is Dak. What is it those 3 did that Dak has not? They won Super Bowls on their original, lowly deals. When they were signed to monster contracts, they had already earned it 10 fold. It wasn't about potential or what they could do for the franchise, it was about what they had already done. What they were trying to repeat.

    Dak is expected to bring Dallas to the promise land. Why sign him longterm for any other reason? But he has not done that just yet. In fact, Dak has not yet made a conference championship game. That's the real kicker. Let's break that curse right now. 1995, was it? Dak should be the guy to get that done. Why not? He has the stats, the team, the pedigree. There's another thing we can use to match Dak to historical outliers. 16 Quarterbacks. No first round picks in the bunch, none had made a conference championship on their rookie deals. So what's left?

    Oh yeah! The contract. Dak is allegedly about to make anywhere from 26-32M$ annually. The Jones want it, he wants it, it's going to happen. Derek Carr currently makes 25 million annually, and that is the 8th highest AAV for a QB's contract at the moment. Heck it was 1st when he signed it. So Dak will at least beat that. And there's our final connecting thread. The QB contract situation has gotten a little bonkers lately, where really anyone can be the highest paid QB nowadays, so let's expand the search to top half money... a top 16 annually paid QB in the nfl. (There's a slight quirk there about high first round picks being top 16 in QB salary due to the crazy wage scale back then, so we're going by second contracts and beyond. The stuff they actually earned playing in the NFL). Top 16 money, not a first round pick, had not yet led the team to a conference championship game. 16 Quarterbacks qualified under these terms since 2000.

    Why 2000? A few reasons. Firstly, the salary cap began in 1994, and that's a big part of the discussion. What Dak earns will directly inhibit the team's ability to surround him with talent. He will need to compensate the difference between pre-contract Dallas and post-contract Dallas with a jump in his own play. 27m$ could be 3 pro bowl D-lineman. Could be an All-Pro guard and a 1400 yard WR. Could be the difference between having Zeke and Byron... and sending them off for picks because you're cash strapped. So the post-contract jump needs to be identifiable. Secondly, when the salary cap was induced, it wasn't as concrete a super-team-prevention tool as it is today. A lot of contracts didn't line up correctly to how everything is structured now. Guys were woefully underpaid, guys had weird clauses and Bonilla-like proration. After a few years of implementation things settles down. Case in point: The most stacked team at the time the salary cap came out (maybe the most stacked team ever) was the 1994 Dallas Cowboys. They then proceeded to sign Deion Sanders to a gargantuan deal like it was no big deal. That's not how it was supposed to work. Time in salary cap incarceration fixed that hiccup. Also, draft analytics have jumped by leaps and bounds since the 80's and 90's. Primarily because of... the internet! There are more draft critics than any time in history. It's so crazy, the draft critics have their own draft critic critics. Websites dedicated to prospect analysis have websites dedicated to criticizing each of their draft analysis methods. Hell, Mike Florio has made a career off of attacking NFL Analysts. So yeah, maybe you can come up with some guy who went in the 22nd round in 1975 out of Eastern Oregon Apostolic Tech, and nobody took him early because 3/4 team had never even heard of him. But that's exactly why we're not going that far back. Plus
    2000 is just a nice round number. It's also the Brady 6 year, so it all comes in a nice full circle there.

    So yeah, the list. 16 guys, chronological order. 1) Not top 32 picks, 2) No Championship game appearances before getting the moula, 3) Handsomely paid as top 16 QB's anyway:

    1. Elvis Grbac, Ravens 2001:
    5 years, 30m$, 6m$ annually (9th highest)
    Round 8, pick 219 (49ers 1993)

    2. Jay Fiedler, Dolphins 2002:
    5 years, 24.5m$, 4.9m$ annually (15th)
    Undrafted (Eagles 1994)

    3. Trent Green, Chiefs 2003:
    7 years, 50m$, 7.1m$ annually (7th)
    Round 8, pick 222 (Redskins 1993)

    4. Marc Bulger, Rams 2007:
    6 years, 65m$, 10.8m$ annually (4th)
    Round 6, pick 168 (Rams 2000)

    5. Tony Romo, Cowboys 2007:
    6 years, 67.5m$, 11.25m$ annually (3rd)
    Undrafted (Dallas 2003)

    6. David Garrard, Jaguars 2008:
    7 years, 69m$, 9.9m$ annually (12th)
    Round 4, pick 108 (Jaguars 2002)

    7. Matt Cassel, Chiefs 2009:
    6 years, 62.7m$, 10.5m$ annually (14th)
    Round 7, pick 230 (Patriots 2005)

    8. Kevin Kolb, Cardinals 2011:
    5 years, 63m$, 10.4m$ annually (14th)
    Round 2, pick 36 (Philadelphia 2007)

    9. Matt Flynn, Seahawks 2012:
    3 years, 26m$, 9.7m$ annually (16th)
    Round 7, pick 209 (Packers 2008)

    10. Matt Shaub, Texans 2012:
    4 years, 62m$, 15.5m$ annually (5th)
    Round 3, pick 90 (Falcons 2004)

    11. Andy Dalton, Bengals 2014:
    6 years, 96m$, 16m$ annually (approx. 6th)
    Round 2, pick 35 (Bengals 2011)

    12. Brock Osweiler, Texans 2016:
    4 years, 72m$, 18m$ annually (top 8)
    Round 2, pick 57 (Broncos 2012)

    13. Derek Carr, Raiders 2017:
    5 years, 125m$, 25m$ annually (1st)
    Round 2, pick 36 (Raiders 2014)

    14. Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers 2018:
    5 years, 137.5m$, 27.5m$ annually (1st)
    Round 2, pick 62 (Patriots 2014)

    15. Case Keenum, Broncos 2018:
    2 years, 36m$, 18m$ annually (top 15)
    Undrafted (Houston 2012)

    16. Kirk Cousins, Vikings 2018:
    3 years, 84m$, 28m$ annually (1st)

    Round 4, pick 102 (Redskins 2012)




    There you go. Some random information that relates to Dak Prescott. Fun, right? But what really was the point? This is everyone since 2000. Everyone who signed for big money. Everyone not a top 32 pick, everyone who didn't have a conference championship appearance but got the money anyway. That's all of them. 'Some solid QBs on this list,' you're probably thinking. Some stinkers as well, sure, but there are a few quality guys in there. But what can we really deduce from this exercise? Hmm... let's go back to that point earlier about first rounders having elite potential. That ceiling that goes on forever. The pundits all saw it. Everyone predicted the pretty boys would be selected at the top, and they were. They had 'it'. These guys apparently didn't, but they struck it rich regardless. But how many of these guys really break that down-the-road-potential stigma? How many of these guys overcame the adversity of not going deep in the playoffs early on to then later propel their team?

    Zero.

    Seriously.


    Not one single QB since 2000 that was A) drafted outside of that golden top 32 'elite potential' group, B) had never made a Conference Championship game prior to getting the goods, and C) Made top 16 money anyway ended up leading a team to a single conference championship game after signing the deal. Not a single one of them. The 'first round for late bloomers' potential point was 100% right in that analytic, live-and-die-by-facts assessment. 100% as in 16 for 16. Doesn't mean all first rounders will pan out better, or even half. But up to this point, it does mean the opposite doesn't happen. Statistically speaking. This isn't just one other Dak-like guy who fits the bill, or a couple guys, or even 5 guys. This is ALL SIXTEEN QBs since 2000. None panned out the way fans wanted them to. Sure, KC loved Trent Green. And yeah, Carr has some real talent. But nobody is paying big money for regular season wins.

    Two ways to take this.

    Firstly, team success being put on the QBs shoulders is wholly unfair, and in some ways kind of stupid. Give a majority of QBs in the league today the 2000 Ravens defense, and they probably have hardware. So was this all pointless? Not exactly. It's not that some of these guys just had poor luck with the teams they signed with, it's that EVERY SINGLE ONE did. It's because of the money cash-strapping that team, when the blossoming QB-in-his-prime potential just doesn't show up. These huge, bloated contracts just hitting harder and harder every season. Win early or forget it. Every time. Every single time they've failed. But Dak isn't any of these Quarterbacks. He's his own unique snowflake, and so anything that occurred previously doesn't even apply to him. Sure, that's fair. It's like the definition of crazy where doing the same thing over and over again doesn't create different outcomes. Except people don't use that properly because no two scenarios are truly the same. Context, context, context. Dak is unique in his own way.

    The other way to look at it is Kirk Cousins. Imagine if Washington really had resigned him to crazy money, and you had the information above available. A lot of people here would probably have used this to great effect to show why Kirk would have been a mistake. Dak will have to break an unbreakable streak to ascend to where you need him to be. He has to become 1 of 17.

    Ladies and Gentleman, like it or not, discredit it or neglect it, these are the QBs closest to Dak's currently contract, draft value, and playoff success since the year 2000. I give you, The Dak Prescott 16.





    (3 players people will bring up who did not qualify. Firstly, Drew Brees. He was drafted 32nd literally the year before the league moved to 32 teams, technically making him a second rounder. So that's the reason I worded it the way I did with the whole 'top 32' thing. I could have just gone 'first rounder' the whole way through, but then people would spend the whole comments section splitting hairs. Bottom line is that first pick of the second round is worlds different than a day 3 pick in Prescott. Especially when Wilson went in the third round due to height concerns, imagine how much potential they saw in Drew had he been of adequate size. So it was never about his elite possibility. Secondly is Nick Foles. I didn't add him because he was given a petty contract by St. Louis (13.5m a year), but more importantly flamed out while on his big(ish) second contract. Then became a backup to another team. Then became a backup to yet another team and only then pulled through. So when qualifying with Dak, unless the plan is to sign him, then immediately cut Dak (Foles wasn't even given a year before he was benched) and finally root for him to win with the Bengals or the Bills, then I'd say he's probably not a great example. The third is Brad Johnson, similar situation where his big Washington contract didn't work out, then he signed modestly with Tampa and ended up winning. For those two nothing doing on the big deal this is all about.)
     
    Last edited: May 16, 2019
  2. PJTHEDOORS

    PJTHEDOORS Well-Known Member

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    Thanxs for your research.
     
  3. Idgit

    Idgit Riding the Red Rocket Staff Member

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    Long, interesting, and irrelevant.
     
  4. Oz-of-Cowboy-Country

    Oz-of-Cowboy-Country Well-Known Member

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    Why do people say, "No disrespect" right before they say something disrespectful?

    TLDR.........sorry.
     
  5. PJTHEDOORS

    PJTHEDOORS Well-Known Member

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    Lack of coffee prob. lol.
     
  6. Eanwen

    Eanwen Well-Known Member

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    I remember when no rb with the rushing title went on to win the SB, so I'm gonna not care about this either.
     
  7. America's Cowboy

    America's Cowboy Well-Known Member

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    You forgot to mention Romo's 2nd big contract in 2011 which was even bigger than the 2007 by far. Funny how you mention how none of those 16 way overpaid QBs ever reached an NFC Conference Championship Game, yet Romo would and should have reached it in 2014 if it wasn't for them crooked officials. The same goes for Dak his rookie year. Dak and the Cowboys should have reached the NFC Conference Championship in 2016 if it wasn't for the crooked officials. You know it. I know it. Everybody knows it. Pretty much blows your whole story to smithereens.

    We can close this thread now.

    You're welcome.
     
  8. Yobwocs

    Yobwocs Well-Known Member

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    You can't look at it like that.


    Those 16 examples were all mostly teams with dire situations at the time of signing a new QB. Apart from Grbac, Romo, Dalton, and Cousins.



    In Grbac's case, Baltimore just won a Super Bowl with Dilfer. And they let Dilfer go. Only QB in history to be released after winning a Super Bowl. They signed Grbac because they thought he was a slight upgrade to Dilfer, but not an overwhelming upgrade. He was pale in comparison to the real strength of the team, which was their defense.

    In Romo's case, he obviously had a superb 2006 and 2007 year. That alone was enough to earn him a new contract. Of course he wasn't able to advance to a championship game. Compare Dak to Romo all you want, and it's logical to do so as Cowboys fans. But you can't draw your conclusions based on that. Dak is not Romo. Romo isn't Dak. They're not gonna have the same career trajectories despite a similar looking start.

    Andy Dalton's case is weird, I agree. Cincinnati was a great team some years ago. They simply signed Dalton because he was a formula that worked. They've become really bad though. But it's mostly Marvin Lewis' fault. They had a superb roster, but it's all mostly gone now. But Marvin Lewis was just kept way too long. They could still find a way to get back with Dalton, although he is getting there in age. But still, don't compare Dallas to Cincinnati. Dallas resurrects itself every once in a while. Jerry finds some way to do it. That's the difference. We go from 4-12 to 13-3 within one year. I don't see Cincinnati doing that.

    Cousins.... let's give him a few more years. Minnesota has a horrible running game and a horrible defense. He can break out easily next year, though I'm not sure how Minnesota has addressed the concerns at the other spots. I'd say they have a good chance to win their division next year though. They would absolutely be willing to sign a top running back (because of what they did with Adrian Peterson), but if they want to trade for Zeke we'd better get a blockbuster deal.




    So the other cases are not like Dallas at all. Like I said, all those teams were all in dire situations. They're not comparable to Dallas. What you're left with is basically a few individual cases you're trying to compare the Cowboys to. But the only one I can see some sense to is Romo. But that should be no coincidence because Romo and Dak played for the same organization. While I do agree that there are facets you can reason on that point, I still think overall there is more that can contradict the similarity you're trying to draw there.
     
  9. Aerolithe_Lion

    Aerolithe_Lion Well-Known Member

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    You’d probably win every year if those officials didn’t stop you right?
     
  10. Aerolithe_Lion

    Aerolithe_Lion Well-Known Member

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    Dallas was 4-12 when Dak took the reins. Worse than a lot of the ‘dire’ ones.
     
    csirl and PJTHEDOORS like this.
  11. MCMetal69

    MCMetal69 Well-Known Member

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    Forgive us for expecting excellence in all aspects , Eagles boy...............You liking Philthy , I can see why your expectations are extremely low..........Especially with that fragile overrated QB you've got......................
     
  12. Aerolithe_Lion

    Aerolithe_Lion Well-Known Member

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    Imagine the heresy if the officials didn’t wind the clock down all the way from 4 minutes to zero after Dez made the ‘catch’ in 2014 and they let Aaron Rodgers attempt one final drive. That would be a scandal of the highest order!
     
    Captain-Crash, Jake and PJTHEDOORS like this.
  13. PJTHEDOORS

    PJTHEDOORS Well-Known Member

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    Yup, that's Wentz for the Sheagles.
     
  14. America's Cowboy

    America's Cowboy Well-Known Member

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    Did you see those playoff divisional game losses in 2014 and 2016? If you did, you wouldn't be talking.
     
    817Gill and Irvin88_4life like this.
  15. PJTHEDOORS

    PJTHEDOORS Well-Known Member

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    Bruce Banner's eyes are now green.
     
    mmohican29 and Irvin88_4life like this.
  16. csirl

    csirl Well-Known Member

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    The parallels between Dak and most of that list are uncanny.

    Shows that wishful thinking will not make a QB elite.
     
  17. RoboQB

    RoboQB Well-Known Member

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    The Eagles must be a really boring team to follow... lol.
     
  18. Hadenough

    Hadenough Well-Known Member

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    This list confirms my suspicions! Dak is another Case Keenum. That's not a knock on Keenum because he has played pretty well the last 2 seasons and been right in the middle of the pack. Right there with Dak!
     
    starcity214, 75boyz and Fastpitch Dad like this.
  19. Ranching

    Ranching Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the post. I was having trouble falling asleep, it knocked me right out. Just woke up and tried reading it again........yawwennnn. getting sleepy again. Good night........
     
  20. mmohican29

    mmohican29 Well-Known Member

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    I'm out. LMAO!

    The fact you troll here daily and expect Cowboys fans to wade through this... thesis... document ... filibuster... speaks to your obsession with our franchise, rather than your Philadelphia Eagles fandom.

    I expect your credibility here to soon approach absolute zero.
     

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