The Dak Prescott 16

[Diehardblues]

Even Philly fans would rather post about anything than their own team. Can you blame them? He's a fan of garbage that spends more time on a rivals forum just so he can get away from the putrid stentch of his own fan group.

It’s better than opposing fans posing as disgruntled Cowboy fans trolling the boards.

I thought this Egirl fan presented a fair comparison. At this point those are QB’s who were signed to similar contracts.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

How about when they signed their long term contracts?

That’s more applicable.

Few would have signed when they were doing poorly, if you think about it. The only ones who’d be in that category are the Matt Flynns who switches to bad teams as the ‘savior’. But the David Garrards, the Marc Bulgers, the Trent Greens we’re rewarded for team success. Pre-championship game success, anyway.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

Draft position does not matter after the draft, only performance matters (unless you want to purposely manipulate to reach your desired outcome)

Post all QBs with similar numbers (passer rating, int, yards, etc..) in there first three years to have a relevant argument.

But the point of the thread is maybe it does matter. Maybe proclaiming a guy a first round talent is a genuine lot valid observation. Team scouts are the best in the world at this. Maybe long run QB potential is a real thing. Sometimes they miss on a guy, but all the guys they miss on win right away. The ones that don’t... 0-16. That’s a big trend.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

I realized later I missed that Case Keenum went to the NFCCG with Minnesota before he struck it rich with Denver. But we can replace him with Foles, as Foles did not bring success to The team that signed him big, St. Louis, and only broke through when he became a journeyman.

His big deal is what is relevant to Dak’s scenario, and how it impacted St. Louis’s cap. If this were still Dak on a team friendly deal like Foles in 2017, different conversation all together. Yes Foles has a ring, and Dak absolutely has the potential to win one... but the monster deal may be what prevents the collection of talent around him that Foles had in 2017. Plus I doubt I could convince anyone here that Foles is better than Dak anyway, so he’s applicable.

 

[HungryLion]

I mentioned drew Brees. And he was taken as a top 32 pick. Didn’t read the whole thing?

Ok so he was 32nd even though it was the second round because there were less teams then.

So it’s a technicality and even further highlights how your hypothesis is just another example of playing with numbers and being selective in what similarities you want to choose to make your point.

Even though none of the similarities you posted has anything to do with the actual play on the field, other than winning a championship, which is a team accomplishment and not a QB one.

So the fact that Brees doesn’t count because he was technically 32nd but also a second rounder, just highlights the weaknesses in the selection process even further. To be honest.

 

[HungryLion]

But the point of the thread is maybe it does matter. Maybe proclaiming a guy a first round talent is a genuine lot valid observation. Team scouts are the best in the world at this. Maybe long run QB potential is a real thing. Sometimes they miss on a guy, but all the guys they miss on win right away. The ones that don’t... 0-16. That’s a big trend.

No offense, but It’s not a trend, when you cherry pick the categories and the key category, winning championships, relies on a huge amount of outside factors that aren’t being accounted for in your evaluation. Namely the 52 other players on the QB’a team, the coaches, etc etc.

For instance, Dak actually has played just as well as Russell Wilson did his first 3 years. But Russell won a championship because he had an absolutely incredible defense.

Russell Wilson has continued to actually get better since his first 3 years. But hasn’t won a title because the team around him isn’t as good.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

Ok so he was 32nd even though it was the second round because there were less teams then.

So it’s a technicality and even further highlights how your hypothesis is just another example of playing with numbers and being selective in what similarities you want to choose to make your point.

Even though none of the similarities you posted has anything to do with the actual play on the field, other than winning a championship, which is a team accomplishment and not a QB one.

So the fact that Brees doesn’t count because he was technically 32nd but also a second rounder, just highlights the weaknesses in the selection process even further. To be honest.

Right, you’re debating semantics between a QB at the top of the second round vs a day 3 pick, when the whole point was observed long term potential. Drew went lower because of his height. Imagine if he was 6’3... top 10 pick? His potential was evident to everyone, they feared his eyeline to WRs.

 

[Denim Chicken]

But the point of the thread is maybe it does matter. Maybe proclaiming a guy a first round talent is a genuine lot valid observation. Team scouts are the best in the world at this. Maybe long run QB potential is a real thing. Sometimes they miss on a guy, but all the guys they miss on win right away. The ones that don’t... 0-16. That’s a big trend.

OK, fair enough. I got one for you.

Trading up for a QB

History says of you trade up for a QB, more then likely they will bust. Even more likely if they suffered a season ending injury during their rookie contract. Big trend.

2008: Ravens trade up for Joe Flacco
2009: Jets trade up for Mark Sanchez
2009: Buccaneers trade up for Josh Freeman
2010: Broncos trade up for Tim Tebow
2011: Jaguars trade up for Blaine Gabbert
2012: Commanders trade up for Robert Griffin III (season ending injury)
2014: Browns trade up for Johnny Manziel
2014: Vikings trade up for Teddy Bridgewater (season ending injury)
2016: Rams trade up for Jared Goff
2016: Eagles trade up for Carson Wentz (season ending injury)
2016: Broncos trade up for Paxton Lynch


https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...und-quarterback-is-generally-a-terrible-idea/

 

[Jake]

Here's some information that's actually relevant.

Took 5 minutes to compile:

Jared Goff:

Draft cost:

First-round pick (2016), two second-round picks (2016), a third-round pick (2016), a first-round pick (2017) and another third-round pick (2017).

Cap cost:
4 years - $28 million

Carson Wentz:

Draft cost:

No. 8 overall pick (2016)
Third-round pick (2016)
Fourth-round pick (2016)
First-round pick in '17
Second-round pick in '18

Cap cost:
4-years $26.7 million

Dak Prescott:

Draft cost:

4th round pick (2016)

Cap cost:

4-years $2.7 million.

3- year player comparison since they've entered the league:

https://www.pro-football-reference....toyear_3=2018&player_id3=PresDa01&idx=players

Nice work. Funny thing is we have fans who would ignore all of that and insist Dak is clearly the worst of the three, because "Dak sucks".

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

No offense, but It’s not a trend, when you cherry pick the categories and the key category, winning championships, relies on a huge amount of outside factors that aren’t being accounted for in your evaluation. Namely the 52 other players on the QB’a team, the coaches, etc etc.

Every single individual stat is cherry picked. Every post, every thread that doesn’t include all combined stats is cherry picked. Without absolutely full context for everything, which is technically impossible, it’s all cherry picking. This board would be vacant without cherry picking.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

OK, fair enough. I got one for you.

Trading up for a QB

History says of you trade up for a QB, more then likely they will bust. Even more likely if they suffered a season ending injury during their rookie contract. Big trend.

2008: Ravens trade up for Joe Flacco
2009: Jets trade up for Mark Sanchez
2009: Buccaneers trade up for Josh Freeman
2010: Broncos trade up for Tim Tebow
2011: Jaguars trade up for Blaine Gabbert
2012: Commanders trade up for Robert Griffin III (season ending injury)
2014: Browns trade up for Johnny Manziel
2014: Vikings trade up for Teddy Bridgewater (season ending injury)
2016: Rams trade up for Jared Goff
2016: Eagles trade up for Carson Wentz (season ending injury)
2016: Broncos trade up for Paxton Lynch


https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...und-quarterback-is-generally-a-terrible-idea/

Okay, but the point wasn’t ‘more than likely’. The point was absolutely, verifiably, every single time without resolve the trend fails.

0-16

 

[Stash]

Nice work. Funny thing is we have fans who would ignore all of that and insist Dak is clearly the worst of the three, because "Dak sucks".

Well, in that case, you know what's they say:

 

[HungryLion]

Right, you’re debating semantics between a ah at the top of the second round be a day 3 pick, when the whole point was observed long term potential. Drew went lower because of his height. Imagine if he was 6’3... top 10 pick? His potential was evident to everyone, they feared his eyeline to WRs.

Right, which actually highlights how draft status isn’t always an indicator of long term potential.

There are a lot of players selected later in the draft who have the potential to be elite, but teams fear they will ever get there, because of a current weakness they have, that teams worry they will not be able to overcome. That’s one reason why some very talented players fall in the draft, despite the potential
Ceiling that they have.

But again, any assessment that doesn’t even account for the actual players, actual play, on the field. Is a weak assessment from the start.

I’m also arguing semantics because your entire evaluation is based on semantics and doesn’t even account for a player’s actual performance.

 

[Denim Chicken]

Okay, but the point wasn’t ‘more than likely’. The point was absolutely, verifiably, every single time without resolve the trend fails.

0-16

No QB who was traded up for and had a season ending injury has gone on to win anything.

Absolutely, verifiably, every single time without resolve.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

Right, which actually highlights how draft status isn’t always an indicator of long term potential.

There are a lot of players selected later in the draft who have the potential to be elite, but teams fear they will ever get there, because of a current weakness they have, that teams worry they will not be able to overcome. That’s one reason why some very talented players fall in the draft, despite the potential
Ceiling that they have.

But again, any assessment that doesn’t even account for the actual players, actual play, on the field. Is a weak assessment from the start.

I’m also arguing semantics because your entire evaluation is based on semantics and doesn’t even account for a player’s actual performance.

Not always an indicator. But if a mid-to-late round pick does not ascend immediately, they don’t improve later. All of them. Every one.

 

[Diehardblues]

Few would have signed when they were doing poorly, if you think about it. The only ones who’d be in that category are the Matt Flynns who switches to bad teams as the ‘savior’. But the David Garrards, the Marc Bulgers, the Trent Greens we’re rewarded for team success. Pre-championship game success, anyway.

Right

Much like last year if we hadn’t turned the season around with Cooper trade and ended season similar to 2017 after starting 3-4.

How much excitement would there be extending Dak after missing playoffs two consecutive seasons?

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

No QB who was traded up for and had a season ending injury has gone on to win anything.

Absolutely, verifiably, every single time without resolve.

So Dak fails, Wentz fails, and eagles backups win Super Bowls.

That’s fair

 

[Denim Chicken]

I think you left out Nick Foles, lol.

 

[Diehardblues]

2017 without Elliott and 2018 without Cooper provide us a glimpse of what to expect down the road once we pay Dak needing him to carry the offense without key positional elite support.

 

[Stash]

Right, which actually highlights how draft status isn’t always an indicator of long term potential.

There are a lot of players selected later in the draft who have the potential to be elite, but teams fear they will ever get there, because of a current weakness they have, that teams worry they will not be able to overcome. That’s one reason why some very talented players fall in the draft, despite the potential
Ceiling that they have.

But again, any assessment that doesn’t even account for the actual players, actual play, on the field. Is a weak assessment from the start.

I’m also arguing semantics because your entire evaluation is based on semantics and doesn’t even account for a player’s actual performance.

This is nothing more than a carefully crafted waste of time and a narrative in reverse.

Eagles fan here wanted to find some way, any way, where he could somehow make the Prescott situation look like anything but the great thing that it is. And better than what he has on his own team (facts). So he came up with his conclusion, and then worked his way backwards, finding pathetic ways to exclude any and all results that blew up in his face. And then he packed it up and tried to sell it.

And he failed. Miserably. Because nobody's buying this piece of crap for a second, and everyone sees it for what it truly is. He fooled no one but himself, and he wasted hours of his time for nothing.