The Division

[Idgit]

I agree.

There's still a ton of time for opportunity.

Hell half of the board was in wetting themselves when we lost to the Giants last December despite us being up 2 games with 3 left to play.

Exactly. It's always a nailbiter when you're worried about your team, but the reality is, each quarter of the regular season is different. Teams like the Falcons look like world beaters to start, then drop three in a row or whatever, and suddenly it's a very different division race.

The Eagles have looked really good against some fairly bad teams. What's worse, they matchup well against us defensively once their LBs get back in the lineup. We're going to have to beat them with Dak. But it's still only been 6 games. I guarantee, by the end of the season a lot of shoe-ins for the playoffs in mid-October are going to be shoe-outs.

 

[Sydla]

One division rival sweeping another in any given season isn't exactly unrealistic. Neither is keeping pace with them with 10 games to play, for that matter.

The Eagles could also drop a division game to the Giants, for that matter.

Or Lane Johnson goes out and Wentz turns into a pumpkin again. Or Wentz himself gets hurt, or a DC comes along and figures out how to beat them, or some distraction or other occurs and they lose their edge later in the season. Who knows what could happen? No matter what, though, divisions aren't lost after 7 games with only about half of the division game even played yet.

We're two games back with 10 to play. There are plenty of realistic scenarios for somebody other than the Eagles winning the East still. Let's just agree that it really helps if they drop a game tonight.

Which sucks, because with Norman and maybe Breeland out, PHI is in good position to sweep the Skins here.

IMO, you are largely thinking with your heart not your head.

An Eagles win tonight put the Cowboys in a tough spot. The scenarios that play out from there that are beneficial to the Cowboys get smaller. For example, Dallas likely can't win the division without sweeping Philly (Yeah, I wouldn't count on the Giants winning a late season game against Philly). If the Skins win tonight, the Cowboys can still win the division by splitting with the Eagles..

 

[T-RO]

I just want in the playoffs. We can do some damage once there.

 

[Joe Realist]

Eagles unofficially sew up east with win tonight. So go skins!

 

[IheartRomo]

I just want in the playoffs. We can do some damage once there.

Agreed. Don't think any NFC participant would want to see the Cowboys come January if we're able to right the ship and squeak in.

 

[LittleBoyBlue]

I am rooting for Skins.


With that said... I usually view the Skins this way....

They will play us hard.
They will play a team we want them to beat like a bunch of losers. Look like amateurs.


Hope I’m wrong.

 

[Idgit]

IMO, you are largely thinking with your heart not your head.

An Eagles win tonight put the Cowboys in a tough spot. The scenarios that play out from there that are beneficial to the Cowboys get smaller. For example, Dallas likely can't win the division without sweeping Philly (Yeah, I wouldn't count on the Giants winning a late season game against Philly). If the Skins win tonight, the Cowboys can still win the division by splitting with the Eagles..

And I'd say you're letting insecurity get the better part of your rationality. Sure, if you assume the Eagles will sweep the rest of the division, it's a lot tougher for the Cowboys. But those are assumptions. The Giants beating the Eagles seems pretty unlikely but those sorts of things absolutely do happen in division games all the time. So does teams dropping back to back games unexpectedly, or starting off hot and missing the playoffs entirely. No matter how you want to try to characterize it, there are 10 games left to play in the NFL season. That's more than 60% of the season still to go. Nothing is decided yet, and if you think it is, you're the one not using your head.

Just last week we had a big thread about cashing in the entire season in Dallas. If the Skins pull it off tonight, we're a game and a half out with 10 to go. That 'turnaround' happened in a single week. And there are 10 left. That's a lot of time. Anything can still happen.

 

[LocimusPrime]

I want mutual destruction between both teams.

 

[pugilist]

i hate hate hate having to rely on "help" from other teams, but the reality is we will need it if we have any aspirations of winning the division

otherwise hold out for a WC. honestly, this team is built to have a late season run that can carry over into the postseason. just need to get IN to the playoffs and hopefully be HOT

 

[Sydla]

And I'd say you're letting insecurity get the better part of your rationality. Sure, if you assume the Eagles will sweep the rest of the division, it's a lot tougher for the Cowboys. But those are assumptions. The Giants beating the Eagles seems pretty unlikely but those sorts of things absolutely do happen in division games all the time. So does teams dropping back to back games unexpectedly, or starting off hot and missing the playoffs entirely. No matter how you want to try to characterize it, there are 10 games left to play in the NFL season. That's more than 60% of the season still to go. Nothing is decided yet, and if you think it is, you're the one not using your head.

Just last week we had a big thread about cashing in the entire season in Dallas. If the Skins pull it off tonight, we're a game and a half out with 10 to go. That 'turnaround' happened in a single week. And there are 10 left. That's a lot of time. Anything can still happen.

It's not insecurity. It's just looking at the results rationally. Most advanced stats projections also say the same thing. A win tonight by Philly gives them a SUBSTANTIAL advantage at this point to win the division.

Again, if the Skins win tonight, there are more ways the Cowboys can win the division than if the Eagles win. If the Eagles win, the Cowboys are likely staring at having to sweep the Eagles (and not spit up against the Skins in either game) to win the division. They have a remote chance of winning the division without sweeping Philly. But if the Skins win tonight, the range of possible ways to win the division expands beyond having to sweep the Eagles. It's a pretty big difference.

You are taking the simplistic approach of simply, "Hey, 2 games back with 10 games, eazy peazy..........." But you need to take a longer look and analyze beyond that. Look at the schedules, look at the divisional record and the possible outcomes needed, etc.

A levelheaded analysis shows you, an Eagles win tonight makes it very, very, very difficult for the Cowboys to win the division.

 

[Tabascocat]

I’m torn on who I want to win tonight. I don’t see us winning the division with that defense but a wildcard might be best bet. In that case, I would just assume that the Redskunks lose tonight. They are another team in the way of a WC.

 

[Sydla]

I’m torn on who I want to win tonight. I don’t see us winning the division with that defense but a wildcard might be best bet. In that case, I would just assume that the Redskunks lose tonight. They are another team in the way of a WC.

It is an interesting way of looking at it.

There are going to be a lot of teams jumbled in the 9-7, 10-6 range possibly. Having two losses already in the conference isn't a good thing either.

 

[DiResta]

My point is, neither team ahead of us is clearly superior. I'm confident the Eagles aren't one of the best teams in the league.

they both have better defenses and can both stop the run though Skins are missing key guys, Eagles have guys dinged also
the Eagles defense is a top defense
they are clearly superior because of that and because they have better records
what more do you need to see to believe they are playoff teams??

better the Eagles win so maybe drop the Skins back and hope for a wildcard but
the teams coming up in next 5 or 6 games will define the Cowboys strength
say they beat Skins and even Eagles but lose to KC and Atlanta teams with tremendous offense speed and elite qbs
how far do people plan to go with a defense that can get sacks and turnovers here and there but cant stop any run or pass?
the only reason Hyde didnt run for 150 yards is because they turned the ball over twice getting down 3 scores
if they were smart they could just keep running and keep Dallas offense on the bench

my thing is
the Cowboys are hitting stride with the offense line and so the run
that opens the pass of course
but the defense is crippled. Lees injury is devastating because no one else on the team is close to his reading the offense
the safety if elite could do that i think
but no high level linebacker kills your defense
the linemen cant rush the qb effectively and maintain run gap
thats why with a lead they eat
when the defense lets strong teams roll over them, even though there are strong players and talent that weakness in the middle
will again bring the trolls
i dont put the team on a pedestal saying they are scary
no
they are very young and talented with a strong offense but holes in defense
if you put them up there you only set for the fall
enjoy what they are and support the effort but aware the challenge in a nasty schedule

 

[Idgit]

It's not insecurity. It's just looking at the results rationally. Most advanced stats projections also say the same thing. A win tonight by Philly gives them a SUBSTANTIAL advantage at this point to win the division.

Again, if the Skins win tonight, there are more ways the Cowboys can win the division than if the Eagles win. If the Eagles win, the Cowboys are likely staring at having to sweep the Eagles (and not spit up against the Skins in either game) to win the division. They have a remote chance of winning the division without sweeping Philly. But if the Skins win tonight, the range of possible ways to win the division expands beyond having to sweep the Eagles. It's a pretty big difference.

You are taking the simplistic approach of simply, "Hey, 2 games back with 10 games, eazy peazy..........." But you need to take a longer look and analyze beyond that. Look at the schedules, look at the divisional record and the possible outcomes needed, etc.

A levelheaded analysis shows you, an Eagles win tonight makes it very, very, very difficult for the Cowboys to win the division.

Everybody's in agreement that a 2.5 game lead with 10 to play is a substantial advantage (you don't need to put that word in all CAPS...it means the same things as it does in lower case. Where we're disagreeing is with you saying that would give Dallas 'no chance' at the division, and then revising that to 'no realistic chance' at the division with 10 games to play for each team. I'm looking at the schedules, the division records, and the possible outcomes when I say this. Which is why I corrected you in the first place.

Advanced stat projections are projections. There are going to be significant factors that impact teams over the course of the season that haven't happened yet and can't be accounted for in a model. For example, most of the models certainly have a probability factor built in for the possibility of Ezekiel Elliott getting suspended. We don't know whether it'll happen or not, but we can agree it's something that would have a huge impact in any projection for the Cowboys. It has to be modeled, but nobody knows yet how the situation will actually ply out.

Look at the Packers for a better example. Before week 6, they had a 63% chance of winning the North according to the model (using 538, by the way). This week? 29%. Why? The Rodgers injury, obviously. The significant impact of things like injuries or suspensions or whatever else that can crop up between now and the end of the season isn't captured in the models. They revise as they go, which is why you see ~30% drops from one week to the next as these factors play out. And, while we don't know in advance what these factors might end up being, we do know that they happen. And we do know that 10 weeks is a lot of time for them to happen. As a result, we do know that a number like your levelheaded 'high 80's' for the Eagles is a projection, and not a fact.

So, I'm not telling you you're wrong because I want you to be wrong (though I do want you to be wrong). I'm telling you you're wrong because there's 10 weeks of football in a 16 week season left to play and a 2.5 game lead isn't mathematically safe. That's not me thinking with my heart and not my head. That's me, understanding that it's a long season and it never plays out the way people think it's going to with 10 full games yet to go.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Football Outsiders has the Eagles at a 78% chance to win the division right now. If they win tonight, that jumps into the high 80s, most likely. Which means for the Cowboys to win the division if the Eagles win tonight, it's going to take a statistically improbable set of circumstances.

Those FO odds are predicated on the Eagles being a much better team than the Cowboys (20% DVOA vs. around 0%). If they're actually that much better than we are, then yeah, they're going to win the division. But I'm not willing to concede that right now.

They are in the driver's seat, though.

 

[Sydla]

Everybody's in agreement that a 2.5 game lead with 10 to play is a substantial advantage (you don't need to put that word in all CAPS...it means the same things as it does in lower case. Where we're disagreeing is with you saying that would give Dallas 'no chance' at the division, and then revising that to 'no realistic chance' at the division with 10 games to play for each team. I'm looking at the schedules, the division records, and the possible outcomes when I say this. Which is why I corrected you in the first place.

Advanced stat projections are projections. There are going to be significant factors that impact teams over the course of the season that haven't happened yet and can't be accounted for in a model. For example, most of the models certainly have a probability factor built in for the possibility of Ezekiel Elliott getting suspended. We don't know whether it'll happen or not, but we can agree it's something that would have a huge impact in any projection for the Cowboys. It has to be modeled, but nobody knows yet how the situation will actually ply out.

Look at the Packers for a better example. Before week 6, they had a 63% chance of winning the North according to the model (using 538, by the way). This week? 29%. Why? The Rodgers injury, obviously. The significant impact of things like injuries or suspensions or whatever else that can crop up between now and the end of the season isn't captured in the models. They revise as they go, which is why you see ~30% drops from one week to the next as these factors play out. And, while we don't know in advance what these factors might end up being, we do know that they happen. And we do know that 10 weeks is a lot of time for them to happen. As a result, we do know that a number like your levelheaded 'high 80's' for the Eagles is a projection, and not a fact.

So, I'm not telling you you're wrong because I want you to be wrong (though I do want you to be wrong). I'm telling you you're wrong because there's 10 weeks of football in a 16 week season left to play and a 2.5 game lead isn't mathematically safe. That's not me thinking with my heart and not my head. That's me, understanding that it's a long season and it never plays out the way people think it's going to with 10 full games yet to go.

It's not mathematically impossible the Giants could win the division too.

It's pretty damn unlikely. If the Eagles win tonight, it's pretty darn unlikely the Cowboys can win the division based on what we know right now. Sure, if Wentz gets hurt next week or their defense gets hit with the bubonic plague next week, that changes things, but again, any rationale that involves some key players get hurt kind of highlights how much of a long shot you are talking about.

You are arguing that anything is possible. Sure, anything is possible. But I am trying to look at this from a likelihood perspective. And a win tonight by Philly is a pretty big blow to the Cowboys hopes of winning the division. Because it severely limits the possible ways they can win the division.

 

[Idgit]

It's not mathematically impossible the Giants could win the division too.

It's pretty damn unlikely. If the Eagles win tonight, it's pretty darn unlikely the Cowboys can win the division based on what we know right now. Sure, if Wentz gets hurt next week or their defense gets hit with the bubonic plague next week, that changes things, but again, any rationale that involves some key players get hurt kind of highlights how much of a long shot you are talking about.

You are arguing that anything is possible. Sure, anything is possible. But I am trying to look at this from a likelihood perspective. And a win tonight by Philly is a pretty big blow to the Cowboys hopes of winning the division. Because it severely limits the possible ways they can win the division.

I'm arguing that you don't know enough right now to be able to say that the Eagles lock up the division with a win tonight, yes. Precisely because there's so much time for something unexpected to happen, and unexpected things happen often enough to matter.

If we were talking about who's likely to win out based on what we know and all things being equal, I'd agree with you. That's what projections are for. But since that's not how the NFL actually works, it's academic.

 

[LocimusPrime]

 

[LocimusPrime]

That's Bs.....that's a better deal than we are getting here

 

[windjc]

7-3 will 98% get us into the playoffs regardless of what the Eagles do. We control our own destiny either way.