The Division

[Bleu Star]

We are not even close to out of the running.

The Eagles are 5-1. They haven't beaten a single good team outside of maybe Washington (disclaimer: neither have we. But keep reading). Their signature win so far is against the Panthers, who looked worse vs. Chicago than vs. Philly. That team stinks, Newton is wild with the football. Had about 25 should-be picks in that game. The Eagles offense wasn't particularly good, but got set up inside the red zone twice due to turnovers. If they have to drive the ball 75+ yards consistently, I don't think they can do it. Or, they haven't been able to yet. The one good team they've played, the Chiefs, handled them with ease. I think they're being massively overrated right now, but we'll see.

If the Skins win tonight, they move to 4-2. We'll be a half game behind them, and 1.5 back from the Eagles. We still have 2 games vs each of them left. I have a little doubt we're a better team than Washington, but we still need to execute.

The Gia...never mind.

My point is, neither team ahead of us is clearly superior. I'm confident the Eagles aren't one of the best teams in the league.

#HTTR (for the next six hours)

 

[LocimusPrime]

We are 21st I think....need to gain more power !

 

[Sydla]

I'm arguing that you don't know enough right now to be able to say that the Eagles lock up the division with a win tonight, yes. Precisely because there's so much time for something unexpected to happen, and unexpected things happen often enough to matter.

If we were talking about who's likely to win out based on what we know and all things being equal, I'd agree with you. That's what projections are for. But since that's not how the NFL actually works, it's academic.

LOL. That's exactly what we are talking about. And Eagles win tonight limits the Cowboys possibilities in winning the division. They are basically left with having to sweep Philly or hope that something wacky happens and the Eagles collapse and lose something like 5 or 6 of their last ten.

Note, I am only talking about the division, not the playoffs in general.

 

[cityochamps]

love to see the skins win tonite...yuk I feel so dirty

 

[ALBIT]

We are not even close to out of the running.

The Eagles are 5-1. They haven't beaten a single good team outside of maybe Washington (disclaimer: neither have we. But keep reading). Their signature win so far is against the Panthers, who looked worse vs. Chicago than vs. Philly. That team stinks, Newton is wild with the football. Had about 25 should-be picks in that game. The Eagles offense wasn't particularly good, but got set up inside the red zone twice due to turnovers. If they have to drive the ball 75+ yards consistently, I don't think they can do it. Or, they haven't been able to yet. The one good team they've played, the Chiefs, handled them with ease. I think they're being massively overrated right now, but we'll see.

If the Skins win tonight, they move to 4-2. We'll be a half game behind them, and 1.5 back from the Eagles. We still have 2 games vs each of them left. I have a little doubt we're a better team than Washington, but we still need to execute.

The Gia...never mind.

My point is, neither team ahead of us is clearly superior. I'm confident the Eagles aren't one of the best teams in the league.

I stopped reading this after who has philly beat they are not that good. If thats the case than how the hell are we any good? Have you seen the teams we beat? I hate when no other team other than the Cowboys can be good. Every other team stinks. Its so frustrating. Sure the Eagles are for sure not the 70's Steelers but if the Cowboys played the same schedule and were 5-1 you would be saying how great they are.

 

[IheartRomo]

I stopped reading this after who has philly beat they are not that good. If thats the case than how the hell are we any good? Have you seen the teams we beat? I hate when no other team other than the Cowboys can be good. Every other team stinks. Its so frustrating. Sure the Eagles are for sure not the 70's Steelers but if the Cowboys played the same schedule and were 5-1 you would be saying how great they are.

The NFL is a small sample size game - the better/more talented team (however you want to define that) often does not win/make the playoffs/win the SB, etc.

The Cowboys 2016 Pythagorean estimated wins was ~11, the Eagles' was 9. The NFL being the small sample size sport that it is, the Eagles underachieved by roughly 2 wins while we overachieved by roughly two wins. The regression to the mean as it relates to estimated wins plus/minus any free agency signings/departures, newly drafted players, etc. has tightened the gap between the two teams. However, the Eagles are certainly not significantly better than the Cowboys, at least they haven't proven to be yet.

It will be interesting to see how the rest of the season plays out but just because the Eagles haven't been world beaters yet this season doesn't mean people are implying the Cowboys are/have been.

 

[ALBIT]

The NFL is a small sample size game - the better/more talented team (however you want to define that) often does not win/make the playoffs/win the SB, etc.

The Cowboys 2016 Pythagorean estimated wins was ~11, the Eagles' was 9. The NFL being the small sample size sport that it is, the Eagles underachieved by roughly 2 wins while we overachieved by roughly two wins. The regression to the mean as it relates to estimated wins plus/minus any free agency signings/departures, newly drafted players, etc. has tightened the gap between the two teams. However, the Eagles are certainly not significantly better than the Cowboys, at least they haven't proven to be yet.

It will be interesting to see how the rest of the season plays out but just because the Eagles haven't been world beaters yet this season doesn't mean people are implying the Cowboys are/have been.

Cool post. I hear ya

 

[WillieBeamen]

I wonder what the 2016 Vikings odds were to win the division after they started 5-0

 

[Fontaine]

Who are we cheering for tonight, an eagles win puts them 6-1and a damn good lead on us at 3-3, but it also puts the skins at 3-3 and we can leapfrog them next week with a win. But if the skins win it bounces the eagles to 5-2, skins 4-2 and us uncomfortablly at 3-3.

 

[Sydla]

Who are we cheering for tonight, an eagles win puts them 6-1and a damn good lead on us at 3-3, but it also puts the skins at 3-3 and we can leapfrog them next week with a win. But if the skins win it bounces the eagles to 5-2, skins 4-2 and us uncomfortablly at 3-3.

If you want to win the division, hope the Skins win. If you are concerned with just the WC, then hope for an Eagles win.

 

[Idgit]

LOL. That's exactly what we are talking about. And Eagles win tonight limits the Cowboys possibilities in winning the division. They are basically left with having to sweep Philly or hope that something wacky happens and the Eagles collapse and lose something like 5 or 6 of their last ten.

Note, I am only talking about the division, not the playoffs in general.

It's absolutely not what we're talking about. Your post, which I quoted, was talking categorically. That's what 'no realistic chance' means. Unless you think it's unrealistic to consider key injuries or suspensions could happen to a team with 10 games left to play.

That's not 'something whacky.' It's a fairly regular occurrence in the NFL. Which is why projections are projections and not actual accurate predictors of outcomes.