The numbers don’t lie. Ezekiel Elliott is showing multiple signs of a decline in the performance most people assumed wouldn’t happen until for at least 2-3 more seasons before declining. He’s only 25, but he has a ton of touches on his tire treads. It’s hard not to wonder if he will never again have that magnetic playmaking ability he had at the beginning of career.
When Zeke hit the scene in 2016, he showed an incredible combination of power, speed and playmaking ability. Behind that once great OL, Zeke was clearly the best RB in the league from 2016-18. But the last two seasons, his burst and ability to break a big run has dropped precipitously.
Here is some of the stat evidence:
- Yards per carry- 2016: 5.1, 2017: 4.1, 2018: 4.7, 2019: 4.5, 2019: 4.1
- Yards per game- 2016: 108, 2017: 98, 2018: 95, 2018: 95, 2019: 85, 2020: 69
- Yards after contact: only have numbers since 2018 but he has finished 4th, 6th and 7th the last 3 seasons in yards after contact.
And the fumbles....Omg...Zeke has the most fumbles of any RB since he came in the league- specifically 22 fumbles since he came in the league, but he’s had 14 fumbles in just the last two seasons, losing 7. And you can’t say it’s because he has more touches. Because Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, and Joe Mixon have comparable touches, but have much fewer fumbles. Henry and McCaffrey have had 5 fumbles each, while Joe Mixon has only had one fumble the last two years!
I believe Zeke still has talent and can be a big contributor. But it is no longer in doubt, he has not what he used to be. And with this makeshift OL in front of him now, he is almost on his own.
And he has a big contract.