The Foolishness of Big Contracts after Age 30

[Maxmadden]

In the past 13 years only 1 guy has been older than 32. That says it all right there. I don't care squat what quarterbacks won it thirty years ago when there was virtually nothing but pocket passers.

The only real modern exception of a guy, well past the 32-year mark who has won a modern Super Bowl is John Elway.

You didn't mind referencing a severely outdated article. The reason more QB's under 32 win more Superbowls than after 32 is because they have more chances prior to 32 than after they're 32. If you come into the NFL at 22,23 or 24 you get about 9-10 years of chances to catch lightening in a bottle if you are any good. If you are good you also get chances after 32.

 

[T-RO]

You didn't mind referencing a severely outdated article.

The article was maybe 3-4 years old. That kind of data analysis isn't dated in a couple of years! And if anything the requirements for youthful athleticism has only increased yet another step.

The reason more QB's under 32 win more Superbowls than after 32 is because they have more chances prior to 32 than after they're 32. If you come into the NFL at 22,23 or 24 you get about 9-10 years of chances to catch lightening in a bottle if you are any good. If you are good you also get chances after 32.

Interesting, but the quarterbacks that I've mentioned would have happily played til they were 40...had they been able.

--Troy was still playing well past age 32, but couldn't whiff a Super Bowl in his latter years. As an older player he became much stiffer and prone to back problems.

--Bradshaw won 4 rings, but all before age 31. His numbers dramatically declined, as did his health. His arm virtually fell off at the end of his career.

--Brady is still a good player at 35. He won his Super Bowls before 32. There were hints of a decline this season.

--Montana? He won Super Bowls all during (or very near) prime quarterback years: 25, 27, 32, 33. He played two years late in his career with KC. He was still pretty good...but he was no longer great.

--Eli and Peyton won titles pre age 32.

 

[T-RO]

All the world's a stage,
And all the men and women merely players:
They have their exits and their entrances;
And one man in his time plays many parts,
His acts being seven ages. At first the infant,
Mewling and puking in the nurse's arms.
And then the whining school-boy, with his satchel
And shining morning face, creeping like snail
Unwillingly to school. And then the lover,
Sighing like furnace, with a woeful ballad
Made to his mistress' eyebrow. Then a soldier,
Full of strange oaths and bearded like the pard,
Jealous in honour, sudden and quick in quarrel,
Seeking the bubble reputation
Even in the cannon's mouth. And then the justice,
In fair round belly with good capon lined,
With eyes severe and beard of formal cut,
Full of wise saws and modern instances;
And so he plays his part. The sixth age shifts
Into the lean and slipper'd pantaloon,
With spectacles on nose and pouch on side,
His youthful hose, well saved, a world too wide
For his shrunk shank; and his big manly voice,
Turning again toward childish treble, pipes
And whistles in his sound. Last scene of all,
That ends this strange eventful history,
Is second childishness and mere oblivion,
Sans teeth, sans eyes, sans taste, sans everything.


The average NFL career? Sunrise to sunset in 6.86 years.
Link: http://blogs.nfl.com/2011/09/15/nfl-study-finds-686-year-average-career-for-players/

 

[Galian Beast]

One factor being ignored is the fact that younger quarterbacks win because they are often cheaper and often as a result or a coinciding factor their teams have money spent towards having better players and other positions.

Generally QBs in their 30s are getting paid to significant contracts, and often that it is to the detriment of the roster.

Many QBs who get older have their teams fall apart around them. Either due to their own salaries, salaries of veteran players around them, or as victims of their own success and the lack of early draft picks watering down their talent as it relates to other teams across the league.

Tony Romo and company may be a victim of their own relative success. Romo took some bad teams and really overachieved with them earlier in his career.

We have under performing veterans and a salary issue. That being said I think we've drafted well in the past few years, and I think if we have some good solid coaching and get some production from healthy players we can do well.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

What's the difference between 31 and 32 despite a year? Did Eli not win a ring last season because he was that much terrible at 32 than he was at 31?

And Roethlisberger SUCKED in his first Super Bowl appearance. Age has nothing to do with championships.

 

[T-RO]

What's the difference between 31 and 32 despite a year? Did Eli not win a ring last season because he was that much terrible at 32 than he was at 31?

And Roethlisberger SUCKED in his first Super Bowl appearance. Age has nothing to do with championships.

Age has a LOT do with championships. Just look at the record over the past 12+ Super Bowls. Look at the broader study that I linked to (with tons of data)

Prime winning for a quarterback is after he has gained 2-3 years of experience and before he hits 32, 33. After that the odds start to pile up against him. Sure a handful of guys might have some big success after this window.

You want to give Romo the biggest contract in the NFL when he's 33? The odds are that such a contract would be a huge debacle...especially when we are not a team that has a good cap situation.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Your analysis is worthless considering the sample size especially when only considering Super Bowl winners. That is an arbitrary distinction anyway. No analysis of dispersion or anything else.

We are not going to rebuild so this is an exercise in futility anyway.

If Andrew Luck was sitting at the top of the draft and we had the pick then that would be one thing but hope is not a plan.

 

[Beast_from_East]

Age has a LOT do with championships. Just look at the record over the past 12+ Super Bowls. Look at the broader study that I linked to (with tons of data)

Prime winning for a quarterback is after he has gained 2-3 years of experience and before he hits 32, 33. After that the odds start to pile up against him. Sure a handful of guys might have some big success after this window.

You want to give Romo the biggest contract in the NFL when he's 33? The odds are that such a contract would be a huge debacle...especially when we are not a team that has a good cap situation.

You are confusing cause and affect here. You are saying that age is the reason a QB does not win a SB. But you are forgetting the talent level involved. You can have the youngest roster in the NFL and still suck, age is not the determining factor compared to talent level.

With a 40+ yr old Brett Favre, the Vikings were an OT fg away from going to the SB. With much younger QBs, the Vikes have not even sniffed the 2nd round.

According to you, Drew Brees is done and the Saints should dump him because he is over 32 and is declining according to your data and the odds of him taking the Saints to the SB ever again are low. Are you seriously going to argu Brees is done? That is what you are arguing here, that if you are over 32 as a QB you are done, the team is done, no championships, no nothing.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Age has a LOT do with championships. Just look at the record over the past 12+ Super Bowls. Look at the broader study that I linked to (with tons of data)

Prime winning for a quarterback is after he has gained 2-3 years of experience and before he hits 32, 33. After that the odds start to pile up against him. Sure a handful of guys might have some big success after this window.

You want to give Romo the biggest contract in the NFL when he's 33? The odds are that such a contract would be a huge debacle...especially when we are not a team that has a good cap situation.

So are you arguing that you can't win with a QB over 33 or that you can't win a championship? Because Kurt Warner was over 33 when he took the Caridnals too the Super Bowl. His team simply wasn't good enough to beat the Steelers.

You can come up with any argument you want but my stats show that the best team in the NFL wins the Super Bowl. Ravens were the best team in the NFL last year. Whether this team fails or not won't be because of Romo. It will be because we simply weren't good enough to win. Romo could be 23 years old and if this team didn't play better on both sides of the ball they would still not win a championship and probably still be 8-8.

 

[T-RO]

Your analysis is worthless considering the sample size especially when only considering Super Bowl winners.

I didn't limit my sample size to Super Bowl winners. My data cast a far wider net. Indeed the study at pro-football-reference looked at well over a thousand players.

And it's not just football...

BASEBALL
Massively thorough saber-metric studies have demonstrated that baseball players peak at 27-29 and "gradually decline after that."

link:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/how-do-baseball-players-age-part-1/

BASKETBALL
"NBA players peak at 24 years old and basically stay at that level until they turn 25, at which point they start declining.” This according to a study by David Berri, discussed here:
http://basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=399
Other studies suggest age 27 for the peak.


TRACK AND FIELD
For Track and Field, peak sprinting age has been found to be in the lower-mid twenties, with endurance events having older peak ages.
http://geronj.oxfordjournals.org/content/43/5/P113.abstract


TENNIS
Just 24! See the link above

 

[T-RO]

So are you arguing that you can't win with a QB over 33 or that you can't win a championship? Because Kurt Warner was over 33 when he took the Caridnals too the Super Bowl. His team simply wasn't good enough to beat the Steelers.

Kurt was a pure pocket quarterback. One of my favorites and I pulled for him in that game, in part, because he was an old fart still able to sling it.

But Warner succeeded despite very limited athletic abilities (I'm talking running, jumping, evading)

Again...exceptions are wonderful...they are memorable...but they are exceptions.

 

[Beast_from_East]

I didn't limit my sample size to Super Bowl winners. My data cast a far wider net. Indeed the study at pro-football-reference looked at well over a thousand players.

And it's not just football...

BASEBALL
Massively thorough saber-metric studies have demonstrated that baseball players peak at 27-29 and "gradually decline after that."

link:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/how-do-baseball-players-age-part-1/

BASKETBALL
"NBA players peak at 24 years old and basically stay at that level until they turn 25, at which point they start declining.” This according to a study by David Berri, discussed here:
http://basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=399
Other studies suggest age 27 for the peak.


TRACK AND FIELD
For Track and Field, peak sprinting age has been found to be in the lower-mid twenties, with endurance events having older peak ages.
http://geronj.oxfordjournals.org/content/43/5/P113.abstract


TENNIS
Just 24! See the link above

Yea, but what you are forgetting is that a declining Drew Brees at 85% is still better than most of the QBs in the NFL.

Just because you start to decline, doesnt mean you are not still one of the best, especially if you are extremely talented or skilled like Brees and Romo are.

 

[GimmeTheBall!]

All the world's a stage,
And all the men and women merely players:
They have their exits and their entrances;
And one man in his time plays many parts,
His acts being seven ages. At first the infant,
Mewling and puking in the nurse's arms.
And then the whining school-boy, with his satchel
And shining morning face, creeping like snail
Unwillingly to school. And then the lover,
Sighing like furnace, with a woeful ballad
Made to his mistress' eyebrow. Then a soldier,
Full of strange oaths and bearded like the pard,
Jealous in honour, sudden and quick in quarrel,
Seeking the bubble reputation
Even in the cannon's mouth. And then the justice,
In fair round belly with good capon lined,
With eyes severe and beard of formal cut,
Full of wise saws and modern instances;
And so he plays his part. The sixth age shifts
Into the lean and slipper'd pantaloon,
With spectacles on nose and pouch on side,
His youthful hose, well saved, a world too wide
For his shrunk shank; and his big manly voice,
Turning again toward childish treble, pipes
And whistles in his sound. Last scene of all,
That ends this strange eventful history,
Is second childishness and mere oblivion,
Sans teeth, sans eyes, sans taste, sans everything.


The average NFL career? Sunrise to sunset in 6.86 years.
Link: http://blogs.nfl.com/2011/09/15/nfl-study-finds-686-year-average-career-for-players/

what yoU talking about, Willis?

 

[Eskimo]

There is no way NBA players peak at age 24.

Most of them seem to enter the league around 21 these days and I'd say most of them peak around their 5th to 7th years, IMO. That should put them around age 26-28.

The one thing about the QB position that has to be considered is that it is a very cerebral position and the ability to read defenses and anticipate things on the field may not be peaking in QBs until they hit their mid-30s. So while they may have physically peaked at other skills like arm strength and accuracy at a younger age, they may be overall better players late into their careers with a relatively flat plateau for several years.

IMO, I haven't seen much decline in guys like Brady, Brees, Romo, Eli Manning and Payton Manning. I certainly don't think they peaked in their late 20s. I'd argue all of them except Payton are still playing at peak levels right now.

Their declines when they happen will more likely be related to injury rather than lack of ability to play the position from a more natural decline.

 

[T-RO]

Yea, but what you are forgetting is that a declining Drew Brees at 85% is still better than most of the QBs in the NFL.

Just because you start to decline, doesnt mean you are not still one of the best, especially if you are extremely talented or skilled like Brees and Romo are.

That's a good point. But what would we be paying for? I'd suggest at the beginning of the salary we'd be paying for 90% of the player that Romo was when he was 30 or 31. By the time he finished the contract his talent would likely have eroded a lot. And perhaps even more importantly, injuries become more frequent and tend to wear down the body. There's less speed, less dexterity, less strength, less bounce-back to full health.

This last year was his worst ever. Was the o-line and lack of running game responsible? Perhaps. Was it the beginning of age-related decline?

Tony is my favorite player. But consider the risks of a MASSIVE salary!

 

[T-RO]

There is no way NBA players peak at age 24.

Most of them seem to enter the league around 21 these days and I'd say most of them peak around their 5th to 7th years, IMO. That should put them around age 26-28.

Eskimo, I wouldn't have thought it was so young either. But a lot of data goes into these studies and in baseballprospectus and basketballprospectus you have some people highly versed in doing empirical research the right way. The article did say this,

"the key issue is not the specific point in the player’s 20s where the peak occurs, but rather that performance after age 30 has a noticeable drop-off. In the player’s twenties the slope downward is quite gradual (and not something you would probably notice if you watched the player). "

In this case I believe Baseball Prospectus was referencing work done by David Berri, in his book entitled, "Stumbling on Wins."

The one thing about the QB position that has to be considered is that it is a very cerebral position and the ability to read defenses and anticipate things on the field may not be peaking in QBs until they hit their mid-30s. So while they may have physically peaked at other skills like arm strength and accuracy at a younger age, they may be overall better players late into their careers with a relatively flat plateau for several years.

IMO, I haven't seen much decline in guys like Brady, Brees, Romo, Eli Manning and Payton Manning. I certainly don't think they peaked in their late 20s. I'd argue all of them except Payton are still playing at peak levels right now.

Their declines when they happen will more likely be related to injury rather than lack of ability to play the position from a more natural decline.

I agree that player IQ and experience--particularly at quarterback--can be a mitigating factor in projected decline. But the larger body of research shows notable decline starting at age 32. And that's specifically for quarterbacks and does factor in the mental aspects.

Romo and his agent are likely going to get a 5-year, maybe even 6-year contract from Dallas or somebody else. That gets very dicey.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I didn't limit my sample size to Super Bowl winners. My data cast a far wider net. Indeed the study at pro-football-reference looked at well over a thousand players.

And it's not just football...

BASEBALL
Massively thorough saber-metric studies have demonstrated that baseball players peak at 27-29 and "gradually decline after that."

link:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/how-do-baseball-players-age-part-1/

BASKETBALL
"NBA players peak at 24 years old and basically stay at that level until they turn 25, at which point they start declining.” This according to a study by David Berri, discussed here:
http://basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=399
Other studies suggest age 27 for the peak.


TRACK AND FIELD
For Track and Field, peak sprinting age has been found to be in the lower-mid twenties, with endurance events having older peak ages.
http://geronj.oxfordjournals.org/content/43/5/P113.abstract


TENNIS
Just 24! See the link above

At this point, its pretty obvious that you are just seeking attention. It was not your study in the OP, you referenced someone else's work. The only thing you have claimed is "Look at the Super Bowl winners.' Again it is arbitrary and a tiny sample size.

Other sports are irrelevant. Why not bring up bowling while you are at it?

Next your googling was fail. From the basketball link:

Despite fairly large samples, the percentages at age 25 and age 26 are not high enough above 50 percent to be statistically certain that players to tend to improve on average at those seasons. So peak age could be anywhere from 25 through 27 by this method.

At that point, I just quit reading those links. It was obvious that you were googling with confirmation bias and demonstrated poor reading comprehension.

Further your OP is based off of fantasy points.

Find all seasons in which the player in question was age N, and note his performance. The metric I'll use is Fantasy Points, defined as follows.

Whats next? Madden score?

 

[Proximo]

At this point, its pretty obvious that you are just seeking attention. It was not your study in the OP, you referenced someone else's work. The only thing you have claimed is "Look at the Super Bowl winners.' Again it is arbitrary and a tiny sample size.

Other sports are irrelevant. Why not bring up bowling while you are at it?

Next your googling was fail. From the basketball link:



At that point, I just quit reading those links. It was obvious that you were googling with confirmation bias and demonstrated poor reading comprehension.

Further your OP is based off of fantasy points.



Whats next? Madden score?

Nice post Lumpkins. I appreciated that.

 

[DFWJC]

In the past 13 years only 1 guy has been older than 32. That says it all right there. I don't care squat what quarterbacks won it thirty years ago when there was virtually nothing but pocket passers.

The only real modern exception of a guy, well past the 32-year mark who has won a modern Super Bowl is John Elway.

Do you think when Kurt Warner's Cards lost a few years ago it had anything at all to do with his play? He had one of the best SB performances in years.

Do think Peyton Manning, Brees, Eli Manning, Roethlisberger and Brady are all good enough to lead their teams to a Super Bowl right now? I sure do. They would all be 32 or older.

I just listed many of the game's best QBs and you fail on every one of them.

 

[Lodeus]

So when a QB turns 32 he should just retire?