The Great Dallas Draft Debate--Fans of QB at 4 won't like it

[Chuck 54]

If you want a QB at #4, you won't like this article, but it's a well-thought out and data-supported reason for why the Cowboys shouldn't take a QB at #4. Why is no one linking the Chargers at #3 with a a possible QB? Because they are viewed as a prudent front office that wouldn't do that while tying up so much cap in Phillip Rivers. The writer argues that the only reason Dallas is linked to a QB at #4 in their situation is because Dallas is viewed as a wild-card team that is unpredictable and might do something wild.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2016/st...16-nfl-draft-quarterback-instant-impact-piece

 

[CATCH17]

The Chargers just gave Rivers a new deal and he isn't getting hurt all the time like Romo either.

 

[Sydla]

If you want a QB at #4, you won't like this article, but it's a well-thought out and data-supported reason for why the Cowboys shouldn't take a QB at #4. Why is no one linking the Chargers at #3 with a a possible QB? Because they are viewed as a prudent front office that wouldn't do that while tying up so much cap in Phillip Rivers. The writer argues that the only reason Dallas is linked to a QB at #4 in their situation is because Dallas is viewed as a wild-card team that is unpredictable and might do something wild.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2016/st...16-nfl-draft-quarterback-instant-impact-piece

It's actually a pretty poor article, frankly, especially with regards to the QB situation.

Rivers is 2 years younger, doesn't have the rash of serious injuries in the last few years Romo had and is a pure pocket passer in that he doesn't play the way Romo does, where Romo likes to improvise and move around in the pocket, exposing himself to hits.

And the idea that a young QB wouldn't learn much from Romo because Romo is an improviser is some of the dumbest stuff I've seen written yet on this topic.

 

[Chuck 54]

I like Ramsey at #4....can play CB or S just like Jones, only more athletic, fast, and physical....Pair Ramsey with Clayborne, Scandrick, Jones, and possibly Carr, and suddenly there are lots of options when matching up with the more dangerous wide-outs and TEs in the league.

I like Bosa at #4....he walks in as the starter at LDE, and he makes all the other guys more effective. At #4, people all want JJ Watt or Reggie White or the players like Von Miller or Justin Houston or Kahlil Mack (guys who don't actually play DE). The top 4-3 DE's are actually guys like Michael Bennett, Ezekiel Ansaw, and Robert Quinn. So rather than looking for the next speedy 20 sack OLB in a defense we don't run, imagine a front four in Dallas with Bosa, Thornton, Crawford, and DLaw/Gregory. Bosa may or may not become a hall of famer, but he walks in and makes our defensive line much better, opening more opportunities for all.

Or simply trade out of this pick with someone who wants a QB....pick up at least an extra 2 and 3, which is where we will find DT's, RB's, and developmental QB's, and use a first rounder on the top rated DE or CB.

 

[NEODOG]

I HATE the idea of drafting a QB @4.....for so many reasons....

That being said-- from what we've done this off season, everything points to this exactly happening. It's s the one position not addressed so far. Hopefully it's in the later rounds....

 

[Sydla]

I like Ramsey at #4....can play CB or S just like Jones, only more athletic, fast, and physical....Pair Ramsey with Clayborne, Scandrick, Jones, and possibly Carr, and suddenly there are lots of options when matching up with the more dangerous wide-outs and TEs in the league.

I like Bosa at #4....he walks in as the starter at LDE, and he makes all the other guys more effective. At #4, people all want JJ Watt or Reggie White or the players like Von Miller or Justin Houston or Kahlil Mack (guys who don't actually play DE). The top 4-3 DE's are actually guys like Michael Bennett, Ezekiel Ansaw, and Robert Quinn. So rather than looking for the next speedy 20 sack OLB in a defense we don't run, imagine a front four in Dallas with Bosa, Thornton, Crawford, and DLaw/Gregory. Bosa may or may not become a hall of famer, but he walks in and makes our defensive line much better, opening more opportunities for all.

Or simply trade out of this pick with someone who wants a QB....pick up at least an extra 2 and 3, which is where we will find DT's, RB's, and developmental QB's, and use a first rounder on the top rated DE or CB.

Why would you assume it would be Lawrence that would eventually split time with Gregory? It's more likely if a DE comes off the field for Gregory, it would be Bosa before Lawrence.

 

[Chuck 54]

The point is the same....we aren't selecting Romo's replacement due to injuries because we are married to Romo and his contract for at least two more seasons regardless, just like SD is married to the contract of Rivers. Like us, SD doesn't expect to be drafting at #3 again, so why is it not wise for them to draft Rivers' replacement now and sit him for 2-3 seasons? I told you fans of taking a QB wouldn't like it, but I think everyone needs to adjust to the idea that #4 is extremely unlikely to be used on a QB this year, though we will likely draft one in rounds 3/4/5

 

[Sydla]

I HATE the idea of drafting a QB @4.....for so many reasons....

That being said-- from what we've done this off season, everything points to this exactly happening. It's s the one position not addressed so far. Hopefully it's in the later rounds....

Trying to address the QB position in the "later rounds" is basically just wasting a draft pick. People always like to lament the pretty poor success rate of first round QBs but seem to forget that a first round QB has a higher rate of success than a QB picked in later rounds.

So if people really, truly want a QB for the future in this draft, the smarter move would be taking one early as opposed to the middle of the draft. Stats simply show that a mid round QB is a much bigger gamble than a first rounder.

 

[jnday]

The Chargers just gave Rivers a new deal and he isn't getting hurt all the time like Romo either.

Exactly. It is very likely that a QB drafted with the 4th pick ends up getting some on the job training when Romo gets hurt. Rivers does not have the back injury and other health problems that Romo has, so the two teams are not comparable with their QB situations.

 

[Chuck 54]

Why would you assume it would be Lawrence that would eventually split time with Gregory? It's more likely if a DE comes off the field for Gregory, it would be Bosa before Lawrence.

It's about the starting 4....When healthy, I'm not sure Gregory doesn't beat out DLaw, and I do think Bosa is better than either of those guys by a wide margin. It's not about who will give him a breather when he needs it...that could be just about anyone on the roster.

 

[Sydla]

It's about the starting 4....When healthy, I'm not sure Gregory doesn't beat out DLaw, and I do think Bosa is better than either of those guys by a wide margin. It's not about who will give him a breather when he needs it...that could be just about anyone on the roster.

Bosa is better by a WIDE MARGIN over a guy who was a 2nd round pick and just logged 8 sacks in his 2nd NFL season?

LOL.

 

[NEODOG]

Trying to address the QB position in the "later rounds" is basically just wasting a draft pick. People always like to lament the pretty poor success rate of first round QBs but seem to forget that a first round QB has a higher rate of success than a QB picked in later rounds.

So if people really, truly want a QB for the future in this draft, the smarter move would be taking one early as opposed to the middle of the draft. Stats simply show that a mid round QB is a much bigger gamble than a first rounder.

The failure rate is the same regardless what round drafted..... 1st rounds picks get starts alone on that fact.
As I posted numerous times: only 2 top 5 drafted QB's have won a SB in the last 20 drafts....both have Manning as a last name.
Sure, lots have made playoffs......but teams drafting at the top generally are there for multiple years.

 

[Sydla]

The failure rate is the same regardless what round drafted..... 1st rounds picks get starts alone on that fact.
As I posted numerous times: only 2 top 5 drafted QB's have won a SB in the last 20 drafts....both have Manning as a last name.
Sure, lots have made playoffs......but teams drafting at the top generally are there for multiple years.

You want to find the next franchise QB? It's more likely coming from the first round than say the 4th round.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2014/nfl-draft-round-round-quarterback-data

 

[TheRomoSexual]

The failure rate is the same regardless what round drafted..... 1st rounds picks get starts alone on that fact.
As I posted numerous times: only 2 top 5 drafted QB's have won a SB in the last 20 drafts....both have Manning as a last name.
Sure, lots have made playoffs......but teams drafting at the top generally are there for multiple years.

You're really going to argue that players like Bortles, Luck, Newton, Ryan, and Rivers weren't worth a top 5 pick just because they haven't won a Super Bowl? That's a meaningless stat. The point is that, while the draft is always a crapshoot, a higher ranked player has a much better shot of making it in the NFL. And you want to maximize your odds when rolling the dice on a position like the QB, where you only need to hit once to be set for a decade plus.

 

[Cowboys1fan]

Bosa is better by a WIDE MARGIN over a guy who was a 2nd round pick and just logged 8 sacks in his 2nd NFL season?

LOL.

Yes bosa is. That's 8 sacks over his first two years. Bosa may get 8 his rookie year not to mention a force against the run.

 

[Sydla]

Yes bosa is. That's 8 sacks over his first two years. Bosa may get 8 his rookie year not to mention a force against the run.

Lawrence broke his foot his rookie year and wasn't really fully healthy and game shape until the end of the season.

So I just want to be clear here. A rookie, who has never played an NFL down, is considerably better than a DE who has actually proven now he can play in the NFL?

This is my favorite time of year, when people latch onto prospects and love them so much they overrate their talents. Bosa is now the best DE on Dallas before even playing a down in the league. Myles Jack is so freaking awesome he can play TB for Dallas too. Ezekiel Elliott is so freaking dominant, he's going to run for 2000 yards as a rookie.

LOL.

 

[Stash]

It's actually a pretty poor article, frankly, especially with regards to the QB situation.

Rivers is 2 years younger, doesn't have the rash of serious injuries in the last few years Romo had and is a pure pocket passer in that he doesn't play the way Romo does, where Romo likes to improvise and move around in the pocket, exposing himself to hits.

And the idea that a young QB wouldn't learn much from Romo because Romo is an improviser is some of the dumbest stuff I've seen written yet on this topic.

It's a garbage article to be honest. His attempted points are all terrible and some make no sense. He lost me when he said the Cowbiys could have signed Colt McCoy, who re-upped in Washington before the start of free agency. If you don't have simple facts straight, what good is any point you're trying to make?

 

[Stash]

Trying to address the QB position in the "later rounds" is basically just wasting a draft pick. People always like to lament the pretty poor success rate of first round QBs but seem to forget that a first round QB has a higher rate of success than a QB picked in later rounds.

So if people really, truly want a QB for the future in this draft, the smarter move would be taking one early as opposed to the middle of the draft. Stats simply show that a mid round QB is a much bigger gamble than a first rounder.

People want to cover their eyes to the facts of the matter because otherwise it renders their argument null and void. Once again, it's people seeing what they want to see rather than the truth.

 

[Stash]

The failure rate is the same regardless what round drafted..... 1st rounds picks get starts alone on that fact.
As I posted numerous times: only 2 top 5 drafted QB's have won a SB in the last 20 drafts....both have Manning as a last name.
Sure, lots have made playoffs......but teams drafting at the top generally are there for multiple years.

Inaccurate claim.

 

[Stash]

You want to find the next franchise QB? It's more likely coming from the first round than say the 4th round.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2014/nfl-draft-round-round-quarterback-data

Everyone should read this well-researched article. You might learn something.