The impending death of the 40 yard dash

[CalPolyTechnique]

You’re complaining about the GPS data not being equal while ignoring the fact that the 40 yard dash has nothing to do with football? The 3 point stance alone is stupid and then combined with no pads or helmet and you’re talking about variables no different than the GPS data. The difference between 4.43 and 4.51 can simply be the comfortability of gettting out of the 3 point sprinters stance...which has nothing to do with playing any of the speed positions. Plus some guys are faster without the pads...

Bottom line is I think there is more than enough data compiled over a players’ career of 20+ games to get an idea of their true speed vs 1 very never racking day in an event that has nothing to do with football

Yeah, here’s another that doesn’t understand what the combine is.

The combine isn’t intended to replicate football. It’s intended to measure athletic ability on an equal platform using standardized test measures.

 

[Ring6]

Yeah, here’s another that doesn’t understand what the combine is.

The combine isn’t intended to replicate football. It’s intended to measure athletic ability on an equal platform using standardized test measures.

add to that the medical information gained by the proximity to top facilities

 

[Creeper]

I don’t buy it for a second.

The point of the combine and specifically the 40 yard dash is to test everyone in a controlled environment (same field, same conditions, same day, same length, same day, et cetera).

What good is GPS data if you play on slow turf, getting timed on different lengths of runs, different weather conditions, dodging defenders, et cetera.

GPS data can be supplemental information but I doubt it ever replaces the 40 yard dash and other standardized metrics.

I tend to agree with this but I confess to feeling both arguments are good ones. The argument about same field conditions is especially valid, but I assume over time the scouts will be able to factor that in. If a particular field is a tenth of a second faster or slower, once the build the database of results that will become apparent and adjustments can be made. At the same time, other conditions can come into play.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

I tend to agree with this but I confess to feeling both arguments are good ones. The argument about same field conditions is especially valid, but I assume over time the scouts will be able to factor that in. If a particular field is a tenth of a second faster or slower, once the build the database of results that will become apparent and adjustments can be made. At the same time, other conditions can come into play.

The point is not that GPS data is useless but rather the notion that it would somehow replace standardized testing metrics like the 40 yard dash. GPS data would just be supplemental information which is always good.

If you’re looking for a model that equalizes the testing ground, removing/reducing variables (to the greatest extent possible) for all participants that would be the NFL Combine.

You mention scouts may be able to account for field/turf conditions that are known to be slow or fast anecdotally. This is all arbitrary though because there’s no study that shows Joe Blow Stadium is .6 tenths of second slower than all other fields. Also, how do you account for wind, weather, angles of pursuit from defenders, et cetera?

Last point, you hear all the time the complaint re: the 40-yard dash that “nobody runs 40 yards in a straight line on the field.”

My thought is, yeah, precisely.

So why would folks think you could get comparable times by using GPS data when nobody runs in straight lines and no two plays are alike?

 

[Creeper]

The point is not that GPS data is useless but rather the notion that it would somehow replace standardized testing metrics like the 40 yard dash. GPS data would just be supplemental information which is always good.

If you’re looking for a model that equalizes the testing ground, removing/reducing variables (to the greatest extent possible) for all participants that would be the NFL Combine.

You mention scouts may be able to account for field/turf conditions that are known to be slow or fast anecdotally. This is all arbitrary though because there’s no study that shows Joe Blow Stadium is .6 tenths of second slower than all other fields. Also, how do you account for wind, weather, angles of pursuit from defenders, et cetera?

Last point, you hear all the time the complaint re: the 40-yard dash that “nobody runs 40 yards in a straight line on the field.”

My thought is, yeah, precisely.

So why would folks think you could get comparable times by using GPS data when nobody runs in straight lines and no two plays are alike?

I still tend to agree with your arguments. I would oppose getting rid of the combine or just the 40 yard dash if I was a league official. I do think standardized tests are beneficial because the players will be "competing" against each other. To me, the best draft prep is watching top athletes compete against each other. But college football is 90% something else. We probably could learn more from Alabama vs. Clemson than 100 hours of tape of Alabama vs. Podunk State.

 

[Daygoboy6191]

The 40-yard dash isn't going anywhere for 1 simple reason. It is the money maker of the combine, your slightly above casual fans tune in to the combine to watch the 40-yard dash, when they talk about the combine the only #'s they know is the 40-yard dash. These fans couldn't tell you what the 3cone #'s are and what they represent.
40-yard dash is going nowhere.

 

[Flamma]

LOL, there is no epiphany in regards to the 40 yard dash now, or ever. Players, coaches, scouts, and everyone related to football has always known the 40 yard dash doesn't always translate to on field speed. This goes back as far as I can remember. None of this is new.

 

[unionjack8]

Id like to see them add the beep test

 

[Uncle_Hank]

40 yard dash is not going anywhere. Its why Randy Gregory(4.66) starts over Dorance Armstrong(4.88)

A blink of a difference is not why Randy Gregory starts over Dorance Armstrong

 

[Uncle_Hank]

That’s literally impossible.

No two plays are exactly alike.

The combine is the closest you’ll get to having equal, standardized testing.

It's very possible to calculate this over the duration of an entire college career using machine learning, which is far more accurate than measuring the underwear olympics once on a random day in a random year.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

It's very possible to calculate this over the duration of an entire college career using machine learning, which is far more accurate than measuring the underwear olympics once on a random day in a random year.

Wrong.

 

[Hardline]

Speaking for myself. I knew I ran faster on the field during actual games than I did on a track.
It was during a game where my adrenalin was flowing and I didn't like getting tackled.

 

[John813]

Actually, it s because Gregory is BY FAR the superior player.

Nonsense. Sweat ran a 4.41 and he's the best DE in the NFL right now.

You clearly also forgot about the best DE for the Cowboys in Tapper who ran the 40 in 4.59 seconds.
Tapper > Gregory AINEC

 

[JeffInDC]

Nonsense. Sweat ran a 4.41 and he's the best DE in the NFL right now.

You clearly also forgot about the best DE for the Cowboys in Tapper who ran the 40 in 4.59 seconds.
Tapper > Gregory AINEC

 

[Avery]

40 yard dashes are really helpful when you're in a track starting position, all your pads have fallen off and you have to run in a straight line to catch the other team.

History would also suggest that hundreds and hundreds of snaps will product more useful data vs. a sample size of n = 2.

 

[fansince68]

The 40 yard dash is for entertainment purposes. Sort of like the slam dunk contest at the NBA all star game. Besides, that dude from the NFL network has a very successful charity gig going on with him running the 40.

 

[Denim Chicken]

The 40 yard dash is for entertainment purposes. Sort of like the slam dunk contest at the NBA all star game. Besides, that dude from the NFL network has a very successful charity gig going on with him running the 40.

It's actually a very useful measure for some positions

 

[HungryLion]

40 yard dash is not going anywhere. Its why Randy Gregory(4.66) starts over Dorance Armstrong(4.88)

Randy Gregory being a far superior player overall. Is why he plays over Dorance.

 

[Future]

It's actually a very useful measure for some positions

I mean 4.6 is a pretty easy barometer because so few guys are actually that slow. This is a list of 90 guys and there are ~30 CBs at each combine (there was 35 in 2019). We're talking 90 out of 600-something corners lol and a lot of these guys either weren't drafted or were late picks.

This would only matter if it's compared against the hit rate for corners of the range where they're drafted. So if there are 5 guys drafted at pick #10, if there's a correlation between 40 time and success.

 

[tyke1doe]

40 yard dash is not going anywhere. Its why Randy Gregory(4.66) starts over Dorance Armstrong(4.88)

It's not.
At the end of the day, scouts, coaches and fans want to see straight-line speed because the race is short, explosive and exciting.
It's like beauty pageants. Are they necessary? No.
But companies will pay big bucks to sponsor them, women - no matter how sexist people think they are - will participate in them and men will ALWAYS watch them.
Shrug.