The Interception Ladder(Romo)

[adzrne7]

Fantastic article, even if its harsh on Romo type QB's.

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_2623_The_mighty_CHFF_interception_ladder.html


"We’ve chronicled the impact of interceptions each year with our interception ladder. It basically says this: with every interception your team throws, it takes one giant step toward defeat. In fact, on average, a team’s chances of winning decline by about 20 percent with every single interception."

"The most interesting part of the interception ladder is not just that INTs are costly. Sure, chronicling the actual percentages is nice, but we all know that turnovers cost teams. The most interesting part is that throwing INTs – or, more specifically, not throwing INTs – is actually more important than throwing touchdowns in the playoffs.

• Teams that toss more touchdowns than their opponents are 207-62 (.770).
• Teams that toss fewer interceptions than their opponents are 258-56 (.822)."

 

[casmith07]

Fun stat, but they don't take into effect defensive touchdowns off fumbles, special teams scores, or the running attack.

 

[adzrne7]

Playoff Interception Ladder in the Super Bowl Era.....

0 INT = 182-51 .781 winning %
1 INT = 140-110 .560 winning %
2 INT = 53-116 .314 winning %
3 INT = 17-76 .183 winning %
4 INT = 1-27 .036 winning %
5 INT = 0-10 .000 winning %
6 INT = 0-3 .000 winning %

 

[adzrne7]

Bart Starr and Tom Brady are the most successful playoff quarterbacks in history, based upon winning percentage: Starr went 9-1 (.900) in his postseason career; Brady has gone 14-3 (.824). They're the least-intercepted passers in playoff history.

• Starr was picked off just three times in 213 attempts (1.41 percent).
• Brady has been picked off just 12 times in 595 attempts (2.02 percent).

Other quarterbacks have thrown more touchdowns in the playoffs than Starr and Brady. But nobody threw fewer interceptions, and nobody was more successful.

 

[gmoney112]

Fantastic article, even if its harsh on Romo type QB's.

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_2623_The_mighty_CHFF_interception_ladder.html


"We’ve chronicled the impact of interceptions each year with our interception ladder. It basically says this: with every interception your team throws, it takes one giant step toward defeat. In fact, on average, a team’s chances of winning decline by about 20 percent with every single interception."

"The most interesting part of the interception ladder is not just that INTs are costly. Sure, chronicling the actual percentages is nice, but we all know that turnovers cost teams. The most interesting part is that throwing INTs – or, more specifically, not throwing INTs – is actually more important than throwing touchdowns in the playoffs.

• Teams that toss more touchdowns than their opponents are 207-62 (.770).
• Teams that toss fewer interceptions than their opponents are 258-56 (.822)."

Wow, pretty cool. Thanks for that.

 

[NinePointOh]

• Teams that toss more touchdowns than their opponents are 207-62 (.770).
• Teams that toss fewer interceptions than their opponents are 258-56 (.822)."

Over that many observations, that difference is not statistically significant.

 

[Shinywalrus]

Fantastic article, even if its harsh on Romo type QB's.

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_2623_The_mighty_CHFF_interception_ladder.html


"The most interesting part is that throwing INTs – or, more specifically, not throwing INTs – is actually more important than throwing touchdowns in the playoffs.

• Teams that toss more touchdowns than their opponents are 207-62 (.770).
• Teams that toss fewer interceptions than their opponents are 258-56 (.822)."

Cool stuff. I'm not sure how interesting or surprising this particular stat is, though. Interceptions are disruptive and are themselves touchdown passes for the other team with frequency far exceeding TD/Completion rates. They also by definition entail putting a winded defensive unit back on the field.

Points yielded by offense can also come by FG and rushing, so the stats get a little wonky - a TD drive consisting of 80 yards passing and a 1 yard rushing TD makes this wonky.

Still fun stats though.

 

[coblue]

Wish someone had compared these numbers to fumbles to see if it is just the surprise of sudden change and/or field position shift that does it or if INT's have some additional impact

 

[TD-33]

I was reading earlier this week somewhere....can't remember... but anyway statistically TR has only gone 2 straight games without an INT once (I think) and that was back when Parcells was here. Which means he is due one or 2 lol. I REALLY hope he bucks the trend from here on though.

 

[adzrne7]

I was reading earlier this week somewhere....can't remember... but anyway statistically TR has only gone 2 straight games without an INT once (I think) and that was back when Parcells was here. Which means he is due one or 2 lol. I REALLY hope he bucks the trend from here on though.

I know he has gone on a streak of 21 straight games with a turnover. Ill say this though Romo took big strides in my eyes this off-season with him saying all the right things. Hopefully he understands this come late December and playoffs.

 

[THUMPER]

I guess no one wants to hear that Tony Romo is the ALL-Time leader in TD passes per game at just over 2 per game. He has thrown 81 TDs in 40 games as a starter (he has thrown 84 TD passes but 3 were in games he didn't start in 2006).

I understand that the study shows that INTs are costly but TDs are what win games.

Romo is 8th all-time in TD/INT ratio at 1.83/1.

By comparison:
Aikman: 1.17/1
Brees: 1.74/1
Brady: 2.29/1 (that's best all-time)
Montana: 1.96/1
Eli Manning: 1.32/1
Peyton: 2.01/1
Favre: 1.50/1
Bart Starr: 1.10/1
Staubach: 1.40/1
Theesmann: 1.16/1
Otto Graham: 1.29/1
Unitas: 1.15/1
Rivers: 2.14/1
McNabb: 2.15/1
Marino: 1.67/1
Elway: 1.33/1

A lot of guys with SB rings on that list who had worse TD/INT ratios than Romo.

Just sayin 'zall...

 

[TD-33]

I guess no one wants to hear that Tony Romo is the ALL-Time leader in TD passes per game at just over 2 per game. He has thrown 81 TDs in 40 games as a starter (he has thrown 84 TD passes but 3 were in games he didn't start in 2006).

I understand that the study shows that INTs are costly but TDs are what win games.

Romo is 8th all-time in TD/INT ratio at 1.83/1.

By comparison:
Aikman: 1.17/1
Brees: 1.74/1
Brady: 2.29/1 (that's best all-time)
Montana: 1.96/1
Eli Manning: 1.32/1
Peyton: 2.01/1
Favre: 1.50/1
Bart Starr: 1.10/1
Staubach: 1.40/1
Theesmann: 1.16/1
Otto Graham: 1.29/1
Unitas: 1.15/1
Rivers: 2.14/1
McNabb: 2.15/1
Marino: 1.67/1
Elway: 1.33/1

A lot of guys with SB rings on that list who had worse TD/INT ratios than Romo.

Just sayin 'zall...

I'm not diggin on Romo! Love the guy as QB just sayin... it's about that time is all. :laugh2:

 

[ABQcowboyJR]

Very slanted IMO. This seems to fall in line with a successful rushing game. Teams that run the ball better simply throw fewer INT's. They really should have incorporated the rushing game those QB's played with.

 

[theogt]

Passing touchdowns per pass attempt has a higher correlation with winning percentage than interceptions per pass attempt.

 

[AdamJT13]

Speaking of interceptions, guess which quarterback has the most games this decade with four or more interceptions? (He has five of them.)

 

[wileedog]

I guess no one wants to hear that Tony Romo is the ALL-Time leader in TD passes per game at just over 2 per game. He has thrown 81 TDs in 40 games as a starter (he has thrown 84 TD passes but 3 were in games he didn't start in 2006).

I understand that the study shows that INTs are costly but TDs are what win games.

Romo is 8th all-time in TD/INT ratio at 1.83/1.

By comparison:
Aikman: 1.17/1
Brees: 1.74/1
Brady: 2.29/1 (that's best all-time)
Montana: 1.96/1
Eli Manning: 1.32/1
Peyton: 2.01/1
Favre: 1.50/1
Bart Starr: 1.10/1
Staubach: 1.40/1
Theesmann: 1.16/1
Otto Graham: 1.29/1
Unitas: 1.15/1
Rivers: 2.14/1
McNabb: 2.15/1
Marino: 1.67/1
Elway: 1.33/1

A lot of guys with SB rings on that list who had worse TD/INT ratios than Romo.

Just sayin 'zall...

I've said all along, Romo's problem if you look at his turnover ratio's compared to other QB's is his fumbles, NOT his interceptions.

That is way more fixable than interceptions. And it starts with OL protection and holding the ball closer to his body which he seems to be doing this year.

Nice job Thumper

 

[TD-33]

Speaking of interceptions, guess which quarterback has the most games this decade with four or more interceptions? (He has five of them.)

Farve? Roethisburger?

 

[AdamJT13]

Farve? Roethisburger?

Nope.

(Although Favre would take the lead with six if playoff games were included.)

 

[Hostile]

Speaking of interceptions, guess which quarterback has the most games this decade with four or more interceptions? (He has five of them.)

Donovan McNabb

 

[TD-33]

lol at my misspelling both names :laugh2: I did bennies on purpose but favrahs oops.
And is the answer Peyton?