CFZ The murky thinking behind the Trey Lance trade

[big dog cowboy]

Once Dak is extended the Trance pipe dream is over. That is why the trade for him was pointless to begin with. If GM Jeruh, would have talked to his staff, they could have explained that to him.

You have said this dozens and dozens of times and now I am rooting for him to make the 53 and get some playing time next year.

 

[Chasing6]

You have said this dozens and dozens of times and now I am rooting for him to make the 53 and get some playing time next year.

I am positive he will be our backup QB next year. Very difficult to justify a $5M emergency QB.

 

[big dog cowboy]

I am positive he will be our backup QB next year. Very difficult to justify a $5M emergency QB.

Yeah because spending 2% of the salary cap on him will make life so much more difficult for Jerry to field a team next year.

 

[Chasing6]

Yeah because spending 2% of the salary cap on him will make life so much more difficult for Jerry to field a team next year.

Well when the rest of the league spends less than 1/2 of a % on their emergency QB, I would say it is a tremendous amount.

 

[Setackin]

well, they got one year to get him in a real game and evaluate. in 2025 we owe him 25M if we decide to keep him. so they better be dang sure by next year if he is worth keeping.

Very true

 

[JustChip]

I wonder if we offered him a bigger guarantee if we could get his salary cost down. I mean, $5 million these days isn't really that bad for a backup QB, but I'd like to see if we could work out a short extension. Since it's a roster bonus, he might be willing to negotiate it into a signing bonus so he gets his $4 million no matter what. Maybe we could turn it into a $6 million signing bonus on a three-year deal that escalates. Then we can get him down to $3 million this year, maybe $5 million in 2025 and $10 million in 2026. Of course, with a $19 million fifth-year option, he might not go for it, but with no guarantees he's even going to be worth a million, I think he'd want the guaranteed money for sure and especially if it is increased some.

I don't really like the idea of having just one camp to determine if he's worth keeping long term. If he plays well, then he gets some negotiating power without a longer-term deal in place. Under what I've laid out, if he plays poorly, Dallas is going to lose $4 million anyway (since the bonus kicks in before camp) so adding $2 million more to guarantee he's under contract for at least another year (and cut his hit this year) isn't that bad.

It also would be a palatable contract if some other team were to offer us a trade if he played well in the preseason. I know he hasn't done anything to deserve a new contract and might not, but we have to pay $5 million to keep him anyway this year, might as well lower that if we can while being able to keep him longer if we want.

The only way the trade makes sense s if he’s on the team beyond 2024 or they get at least a 5th round comp pick.

To be on the team after 2024, he has to at least be the backup and sign an extension - the 5th year option is untenable for a backup.

Doubtful he would fetch a 5th round. Playing time is a component of the comp system and he’s not fetching a big contract without significant playing time.

I was ok with, maybe even a fan of, the trade. But that doesn’t change that it was a Jerry 2nd round wildcatting move.

 

[T-RO]

Nice post Bob. I agree the trade reflects some cloudy thinking from Jerruh, and quite possibly was done without any consultation with anyone!

 

[JoeKing]

To be fair, there had better be a plan for Lance to at least become the primary backup soon. If we traded a fourth round pick just to have a QB run the scout team, that would be a truly ridiculous trade. If he doesn’t push Cooper Rush off the roster this year, I’ll count it as a stupid use of a 4th round pick.

A 4th round pick and $5M in cap space is a massive overpay for a practice squad player.

You're still under-evaluating the assignment he currently has. It's the only way he gets enough snaps at practice to get better while not taking away from our QB1, Dak. The plan for the Cowboys' future doesn't go beyond 2024. Let that sink in.

 

[Staubacher]

When Trey Lance is Mahomesing us to multiple Bardis it'll all make sense.

 

[JustChip]

The plan for the Cowboys' future doesn't go beyond 2024. Let that sink in.

That a fair point. The Lance trade makes zero logical sense unless he’s in the team after 2024 and him being on the team only happens if he’s the starter, which he won’t be.

 

[Chasing6]

The only way the trade makes sense s if he’s on the team beyond 2024 or they get at least a 5th round comp pick.

To be on the team after 2024, he has to at least be the backup and sign an extension - the 5th year option is untenable for a backup.

Doubtful he would fetch a 5th round. Playing time is a component of the comp system and he’s not fetching a big contract without significant playing time.

I was ok with, maybe even a fan of, the trade. But that doesn’t change that it was a Jerry 2nd round wildcatting move.

I think could have been a fair trade if we had the rights to him for at least 2 years to try and properly evaluate him. We traded for him basically at the end of training camp. Timing was terrible in my opinion.

 

[JoeKing]

That a fair point. The Lance trade makes zero logical sense unless he’s in the team after 2024 and him being on the team only happens if he’s the starter, which he won’t be.

We don't know what we don't know. Stranger things have happened. I admit this is an uncomfortable position for most fans to be in. Many have still not been able to understand what's going on here. The Cowboys since Jerry bought the team have always been of the business model to win as many games as possible during the regular season and let the chips fall where they may after that. The chips that fall from that are an early exit in the playoffs if you make it that far and a poor draft position every year. So that appears to be coming to an end. The Cowboys are "all in" for 2024. Fail and this whole thing blows up. Dak and MM will be gone. Where they go from there, no one knows.

 

[The Fonz]

The Jones have no plan they are clueless.

 

[Toro9]

What I meant is that he was viewed as a first-round talent. That's why he was taken in the first round. Obviously, the hope is that he is a first-round talent and just slow to develop because of an overall lack of playing time. That's why they acquired him for a fourth-round pick.

Young QBs are generally advantageous when they have a couple years to sit and transition to NFL speed. This used to be done a lot more in the past. Now it's usually sink or swim.

 

[CWR]

a 4th round pick with a two-year, $6,250,717 deal and no realistic chance of proving himself. Throw in a $25M option that you have to pull the trigger on in just over a month.

Teams were offering a 6th for Lance and a 7th. Jerry came in and offered a 4th.

I typically applaud trading for a young player.."Gamble on talent". This was a bad trade. One of many on Jerry's GM resume.

That's a very good point on the costs of his 5th year option, although I've seen more like 19 million.

The team clearly will decline and try to sign him to a short term prove it type of deal I would guess.

They will try to sale him on this being his best chance to develop and make future earnings. If he rushes somewhere else to "start from scratch" it will set him back etc.

 

[CT Dal Fan]

I am a Dak fan, but I also smart enough to say this- I WANT to see what they have in Lance. I am rooting for Dak to figure it out in the playoffs, like I hope the rest of the team does. But I also would like to know that if Dak has indeed peaked, do the Cowboys already have their future on the roster?

The thing is, moving on from Dak is not as easy as it sounds. He is under contract for 2024 and the cap hit is enormous. Cutting him cripples the cap and basically drives a stake into any kind of free agent activity. Keeping him for just 2024 at his current cost does the same exact thing. Also there's a no trade clause. But even if the Cowboys and Dak agree to waive that clause; who's trading for Dak for one year at a 59-plus million cap hit? AND giving Dallas picks and/or players on top of it?

The only logical solution is to extend Dak; which is going to cause this forum to implode. But if the Cowboys do the deal correctly it makes it easier for them to move on in 2025 or beyond; should the need arise. The catch is figuring out what Lance is capable of in the interim.

As much as the Dak haters don't want to admit it, the Cowboys have won a whole bunch of games with him. This team would have to be sitting on a 2-6 record or something at midseason and Dak would need to be either hurt or playing horribly for a change to come.

And while a lot of you all don't want to admit it, it's pretty hard to justify putting a QB that passed for 4516 yards and 36 touchdowns last year on the bench (or on the street).

 

[CWR]

Young QBs are generally advantageous when they have a couple years to sit and transition to NFL speed. This used to be done a lot more in the past. Now it's usually sink or swim.

Cam Newton is the first a time I can remember a rookie producing at such a high level so quickly. I'm sure there are plenty of other examples going back further. I only remember Cam because I was playing fantasy and wasn't accepting what he was doing.

Yeah they used to not expect much from rookie qbs. It was also common place to let em sit a year or so.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Cam Newton is the first a time I can remember a rookie producing at such a high level so quickly. I'm sure there are plenty of other examples going back further. I only remember Cam because I was playing fantasy and wasn't accepting what he was doing.

Yeah they used to not expect much from rookie qbs. It was also common place to let em sit a year or so.

Dan Marino, Jon Elway, and Ben Roethlisberger all had high level rookie seasons.

 

[Chasing6]

Dan Marino, Jon Elway, and Ben Roethlisberger all had high level rookie seasons.

Ben had a loaded team. Best thing for a young QB is a great defense and a great running game. He had both.

 

[Chasing6]

I am a Dak fan, but I also smart enough to say this- I WANT to see what they have in Lance. I am rooting for Dak to figure it out in the playoffs, like I hope the rest of the team does. But I also would like to know that if Dak has indeed peaked, do the Cowboys already have their future on the roster?

The thing is, moving on from Dak is not as easy as it sounds. He is under contract for 2024 and the cap hit is enormous. Cutting him cripples the cap and basically drives a stake into any kind of free agent activity. Keeping him for just 2024 at his current cost does the same exact thing. Also there's a no trade clause. But even if the Cowboys and Dak agree to waive that clause; who's trading for Dak for one year at a 59-plus million cap hit? AND giving Dallas picks and/or players on top of it?

The only logical solution is to extend Dak; which is going to cause this forum to implode. But if the Cowboys do the deal correctly it makes it easier for them to move on in 2025 or beyond; should the need arise. The catch is figuring out what Lance is capable of in the interim.

As much as the Dak haters don't want to admit it, the Cowboys have won a whole bunch of games with him. This team would have to be sitting on a 2-6 record or something at midseason and Dak would need to be either hurt or playing horribly for a change to come.

And while a lot of you all don't want to admit it, it's pretty hard to justify putting a QB that passed for 4516 yards and 36 touchdowns last year on the bench (or on the street).

Why would Dak sign a contract where he could be let go in 2025? He would be better off playing out this year and being free agent next year.

He will be extended. Most likely a 4 year deal. He has all the control and his agent knows it.