CFZ The murky thinking behind the Trey Lance trade

[DuncanIso]

Who was the emergency QB all year long???

Which was smart.

If Lance got injured again, like he did at SF, then we would have no leverage vs Dak and his mega millions.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

He does not play well. That is why he was traded to Dallas. He does not play well, that is why he was not moved up to back up QB. He does not play well. That is why Dak will be extended. He does not play well, that is why Trance will be a free agent next year.

But he is apparently still young with a lot of potential and if he sits and watches for a couple of more years, he will be amazing.

So if I understand you, he doesn't play well?

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

Folks are way overthinking this.

Lance is a developmental prospect.

Full stop.

If we drafted a QB in the 4th round of last year’s draft we wouldn’t be having this conversation because everyone would understand the context and expectations of that player.

Yet, we trade a 4th rounder for Lance and people lose their minds evidently.

 

[js66]

While I don't think it's the direction they will go.... there are real scenarios out there where we can leave Dak's contract alone. We can squeeze his number into the salary cap and keep the team mostly in tact. We won't add much of anything and maybe lose someone like Dorance Armstrong.

That should be a very real possibility they are looking at. It will not take $25M to hold on to Trey Lance in 2025. It may take less than half of that. You trade Rush for a late round pick, and go into the season with Lance as the backup. Lance plays virtually every snap of the preseason. You put in a package for him during the season as well. If he plays well you expand that. At the end of the season... if Dak is insistent on the record setting $60M contract we've seen thrown out there, you go with Lance for $15M or so per.

Dak can choose if he wants to forfeit the tax advantages of Texas and all the Dallas Cowboys endorsements or take a team friendlier deal. Trey Lance knows the endorsement and tax free situation in Texas. He won't get an equivalent deal elsewhere with little to no starting experience. If at that point you want to stick with Dak at a more palatable number, you can let Trey walk or tag him just to trade him for possibly a 2nd or more. In that scenario you've acquired contract leverage against Dak and made a return on your 4th round pick.

There could be a real scenario out there where Trey Lance at $15M per with $45M in extra cap room is better than Dak at $60M and we're up against the cap. There is also a scenario where this trade limits Dak's bargaining power and returns us more draft capital.

 

[CowboyoWales]

Folks are way overthinking this.

Lance is a developmental prospect.

Full stop.

If we drafted a QB in the 4th round of last year’s draft we wouldn’t be having this conversation because everyone would understand the context and expectations of that player.

Yet, we trade a 4th rounder for Lance and people lose their minds evidently.

Not really, the point being made is why sign Lance as a 'developmental' QB on what was a 2 year deal. If we needed a purely 'developmental' QB it would of been more prudent to of drafted one last year and had four years control.
We traded for Lance to put some form of pressure on France to negotiate. Lance provides some (limited) alternative to Dak.....a 4thRd drafted in 2023 or Cooper Rush provide no alternative.
If Dak extends, Lance is traded.

 

[CWR]

Dan Marino, Jon Elway, and Ben Roethlisberger all had high level rookie seasons.

Rapeyburger was good for a rook, but we are talking about 2600 yds vs. 4400 for Cam. It was different. Cam looked like he was gonna be special. Marino and Elway I'm not sure about, however they don't suprise me as they are two of the leagues best all time.

 

[CowboyoWales]

While I don't think it's the direction they will go.... there are real scenarios out there where we can leave Dak's contract alone. We can squeeze his number into the salary cap and keep the team mostly in tact. We won't add much of anything and maybe lose someone like Dorance Armstrong.

That should be a very real possibility they are looking at. It will not take $25M to hold on to Trey Lance in 2025. It may take less than half of that. You trade Rush for a late round pick, and go into the season with Lance as the backup. Lance plays virtually every snap of the preseason. You put in a package for him during the season as well. If he plays well you expand that. At the end of the season... if Dak is insistent on the record setting $60M contract we've seen thrown out there, you go with Lance for $15M or so per.

Dak can choose if he wants to forfeit the tax advantages of Texas and all the Dallas Cowboys endorsements or take a team friendlier deal. Trey Lance knows the endorsement and tax free situation in Texas. He won't get an equivalent deal elsewhere with little to no starting experience. If at that point you want to stick with Dak at a more palatable number, you can let Trey walk or tag him just to trade him for possibly a 2nd or more. In that scenario you've acquired contract leverage against Dak and made a return on your 4th round pick.

There could be a real scenario out there where Trey Lance at $15M per with $45M in extra cap room is better than Dak at $60M and we're up against the cap. There is also a scenario where this trade limits Dak's bargaining power and returns us more draft capital.

I suppose Lance being hidden as QB3 means he's not getting exposure to 'up' his contract negotiation....and yes he won't get $25m (franchise money) in 2025.

 

[NDGAEDE]

I don't think it's complicated. Jerry traded a mid round pick on what was, to him, a lottery ticket and backup QB.

I'm guessing they release Rush depsite Mike's reservations and play Lance exclusively in preseason.

 

[js66]

I suppose Lance being hidden as QB3 means he's not getting exposure to 'up' his contract negotiation....and yes he won't get $25m (franchise money) in 2025.

No, he'd just turned 23 with a lot of potential and tools, QB3 just make sense for him. We also traded for him after the preseason so he had zero time in our offence. He get's a year in the QB room and time to learn the system.

At QB2 we had 30 year old Rush who has been here since 2017. At this time last year he had started, won games and at least thrown for 1,000 yards in our offence.

 

[big dog cowboy]

Not really, the point being made is why sign Lance as a 'developmental' QB on what was a 2 year deal. If we needed a purely 'developmental' QB it would of been more prudent to of drafted one last year and had four years control.

Lance is a far better prospect than any QB you would have drafted. That's the difference. Here are the 4th round QB's from last year:

Jake Haener, QB, Fresno State
Stetson Bennett, QB, Georgia
Aidan O’Connell, QB, Purdue

 

[js66]

Lance is a far better prospect than any QB you would have drafted. That's the difference. Here are the 4th round QB's from last year:

Jake Haener, QB, Fresno State
Stetson Bennett, QB, Georgia
Aidan O’Connell, QB, Purdue

A couple years farther back.

2022
Bailey Zappe

2021
Ian Book

2020
Jacob Eason
James Morgan

2019
Ryan Finley
Jarret Stidham

2018
Kyle Lauletta

 

[Jarv]

It may work out…hope it does. But as for it being a “non-story”…it’s only a non-story in Dallas. If this had happened with any other team, it would be considered a big story.

CBS Sports had an interesting article on this last Sept:
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...-mccarthy-i-can-make-that-trade-in-5-minutes/

Thanks for the link, I never read that or knew this was in the article...

"Earlier this offseason, Jones stated that they would like Prescott, who is entering the final two years of a four-year, $160 million contract he signed in 2021, to be their quarterback for the next 10 years. The Lance acquisition doesn't change his mindset on Prescott's time with the Silver and Blue."

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Which was smart.

If Lance got injured again, like he did at SF, then we would have no leverage vs Dak and his mega millions.

sorry, but even if he is healthy we have very little leverage. he wasn't any good when he did play. that's why the 3rd over all pick, that cost an arm and a leg got traded for peanuts. you don't think Dak's agent knows that?

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Folks are way overthinking this.

Lance is a developmental prospect.

Full stop.

If we drafted a QB in the 4th round of last year’s draft we wouldn’t be having this conversation because everyone would understand the context and expectations of that player.

Yet, we trade a 4th rounder for Lance and people lose their minds evidently.

you are right. he is a developmental long shot. Parcells used to do the same, he would bring in high draft picked players, because his logic was often somebody thought they were talented, so if cheap, its worth kicking the tires.

the folks losing their mind is they think he is the saviour who is going to get Dak kicked off the team and take us to the promise land.

 

[CowboyoWales]

Lance is a far better prospect than any QB you would have drafted. That's the difference. Here are the 4th round QB's from last year:

Jake Haener, QB, Fresno State
Stetson Bennett, QB, Georgia
Aidan O’Connell, QB, Purdue

Agree on talent level, but the OP and subsiquent thread is querying why, as we're a team that 're-signs and drafts', spent a 4th Rd pick for two years of a back-up QB.....especially when many claim that Lance wouldn't push the needle if Dak went down.

you are right. he is a developmental long shot.

He's a FA in 2025. That's not developmental, especially when we're extending Dak, probably long term as that's the only contract we can afford (due to the outstanding deferred CAP).

 

[CowboyoWales]

No, he'd just turned 23 with a lot of potential and tools, QB3 just make sense for him. We also traded for him after the preseason so he had zero time in our offence. He get's a year in the QB room and time to learn the system.

At QB2 we had 30 year old Rush who has been here since 2017. At this time last year he had started, won games and at least thrown for 1,000 yards in our offence.

So what money does Lance get in 2025, on the open market? Potential's great, on a rookie contract.

 

[ArtClink]

Folks are way overthinking this.

Lance is a developmental prospect.

Full stop.

If we drafted a QB in the 4th round of last year’s draft we wouldn’t be having this conversation because everyone would understand the context and expectations of that player.

Yet, we trade a 4th rounder for Lance and people lose their minds evidently.

IMO if the 49ers give up on a QB, that's a bad sign since they have one of the top offensive minds. Plus Jerry has a history of acquiring former high round draft picks and they never seem to work out do they?

 

[jazzcat22]

IMO if the 49ers give up on a QB, that's a bad sign since they have one of the top offensive minds. Plus Jerry has a history of acquiring former high round draft picks and they never seem to work out do they?

Maybe it was not the coaches idea to give up on him.
Decisions from other teams can come from higher up. It is not just Jerry.

 

[Motorola]

They can’t tag him. But they can trade him. Has to be to a team with Dak’s approval. That term “no trade clause” is misleading because if Dak, the Cowboys and a trade partner can agree on terms then he can be traded.

What Dak does have is the power to say, “I don’t want to be traded there.”

But what team would Prescott want to be quarterback of besides the Cowboys?
His outstanding first three seasons for "America's Team" has made him one of the most popular players with fans, and has garnered Prescott numerous endorsements.
2024 will begin his ninth season with Dallas. Barring injury over the next two seasons, just about every significant franchise quarterback record will have his name listed next to it.
And when the time comes for him to leave the field, Prescott will not be lacking post-playing career opportunities for being an a former Cowboys star.

 

[blueblood70]

There could be teams that might consider Rush if they lost or benched their starter if he became a free agent. I should have clarified as a replacement or interim starting quarterback. I was thinking of him being a journeyman type quarterback. I agree that he is not a long term starting quarterback, he is talent limited but competent enough to help you win a handful of games at best.

YET not a single team has in weak QB market meaning all teams need qb and depth, hes been on an off our PS many times and was FA last year, NOT ONE suitor. hes the most overrated player on our team IMHO