The Myth of the Bell Cow

[Broges74]

I think what you'll see is Randle start strong bursting free for long runs early but leveling out about game 7. R Williams will have a problem staying healthy and McFadden sucking but not as bad as in OAK. I really do believe you need a lead back if we are going to stay balanced .

Call Miami.

Possible we pickup someone for the other backs to have to take carries from.

 

[Stash]

For you @stasheroo

2014-look at power success which is third or fourth down conversion rate.

http://i471.***BLOCKED***/albums/rr75/jobberone/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-02%20at%205.58.11%20PM_zpsaepazwqa.png

2013

http://i471.***BLOCKED***/albums/rr75/jobberone/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-02%20at%206.02.55%20PM_zpsxdemqrng.png

2012

http://i471.***BLOCKED***/albums/rr75/jobberone/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-02%20at%206.05.40%20PM_zpsz2vsvoxt.png

2011

http://i471.***BLOCKED***/albums/rr75/jobberone/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-02%20at%206.07.43%20PM_zpszk9ossnw.png

Keep in mind this is run success and I did not put up pass success. You can look back further as you wish.

Data via Football Outsiders

Thanks very much, I appreciate it. One other key factor i have been looking for has been the Cowboys' third and short (4 yards or less) numbers. How often they actually run vs pass in those scenarios.

Despite a tremendous season, their tendency not to run on 3rd and short continued to bother me.

 

[dallasdave]

I think what you'll see is Randle start strong bursting free for long runs early but leveling out about game 7. R Williams will have a problem staying healthy and McFadden sucking but not as bad as in OAK. I really do believe you need a lead back if we are going to stay balanced .

Call Miami.

Possible we pickup someone for the other backs to have to take carries from.

Randle has deals with fruit of the loam

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Why not?

That's just 15.6 carries per game.

I think whoever the Cowboys choose to be the main guy, he'll probably be closer to the 15.6 carries per game than Murray's 24.6.

There were 8 backs last season that totaled more than 250 carries. I would speculate the Cowboys would give their lead back about 17.5 carries per game which is the same amount Lynch had for Seattle last season. That seems like a good number too me. If the Cowboys average 30 carries per game that would give the lead back 58% of those carries. Out of those 30 carries per game, you'll probably have 3 carries (total) that to the QB/WR/FB.

That would mean that the lead back would get almost 65% of the running-back-focused carries.

So if the lead guy averaged 17.5 per game, the other two backs would get 9.5 carries per game. Again that number sounds "right" to me.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Why not?

That's just 15.6 carries per game.

Because RBs have very high injury rates and I think platooning them the best option short of a HoF type.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

I think what you'll see is Randle start strong bursting free for long runs early but leveling out about game 7. R Williams will have a problem staying healthy and McFadden sucking but not as bad as in OAK. I really do believe you need a lead back if we are going to stay balanced .

Call Miami.

Possible we pickup someone for the other backs to have to take carries from.

If they don't overwork Randle I don't think he'll burn out.

The lead guy isn't going to get anywhere near the number of attempts per game that Murray did.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Because RBs have very high injury rates and I think platooning them the best option short of a HoF type.

Yeah, again only 8 guys averaged more than that last season. 15.6 carries per game isn't that small.

 

[perrykemp]

Because RBs have very high injury rates and I think platooning them the best option short of a HoF type.

Ok. Reasonable logic.

 

[jobberone]

Thanks very much, I appreciate it. One other key factor i have been looking for has been the Cowboys' third and short (4 yards or less) numbers. How often they actually run vs pass in those scenarios.

Despite a tremendous season, their tendency not to run on 3rd and short continued to bother me.

Those numbers are for 1-2 yds for a first down or on the GL from the one or two. I don't have the splits for running or passing. I think its in the data but that's a guess. Generally we have been near 60% to as high as 80+% when running for a first down then. Keep in mind that 3rd down efficiency is not the end all. You can have a lower rate than above but make more first downs on first or second down.

High rate 3rd down efficiency is great but Sc% and RZ efficiency is better. Wins are best.

 

[Galian Beast]

I love how this terrible thread has reached 17 pages... I'm going to retire from making threads. You win xwalker and co.

 

[SouthernOregonStud]

No one here wants a return to 8-8 but it has to be part of the discussion when qualifying risk (even if you don't like it).

Bleu,
Just curious but it looks like AD is heading back to practice with the Viks, I wonder if that's the final chapter & I wonder if the worry that is 8-8 will be realized sooner with the RBBC that seems more of a reality. How quickly will the game plan shift to Romo throwing it closer to 65 to 70% of the game?

 

[Galian Beast]

Bleu,
Just curious but it looks like AD is heading back to practice with the Viks, I wonder if that's the final chapter & I wonder if the worry that is 8-8 will be realized sooner with the RBBC that seems more of a reality. How quickly will the game plan shift to Romo throwing it closer to 65 to 70% of the game?

I don't think this chapter ends until the trade deadline. If the Vikings are getting trounced through the season, they might still cut bait.

 

[Manwiththeplan]

I don't think this chapter ends until the trade deadline. If the Vikings are getting trounced through the season, they might still cut bait.

It will rear it's ugly head again next offseason, unless Randle or McFadden rush for 1500 yards, but it is dead until then. Midway through the season, the Vikings won't have as many suitors since poor performing teams won't deal a draft pick, and they would be smart to wait until the offseason to deal him.

 

[Galian Beast]

It will rear it's ugly head again next offseason, unless Randle or McFadden rush for 1500 yards, but it is dead until then. Midway through the season, the Vikings won't have as many suitors since poor performing teams won't deal a draft pick, and they would be smart to wait until the offseason to deal him.

I think the Cowboys would be less likely to go after AP next year than this year.

If McFadden and Randle or whatever assortment of running backs can't reach 1500 yards, we probably draft a guy. Elliot may already be on their radar.

 

[Bleu Star]

I looked it up and your common ground rating is not quite 23%.

lol

 

[rpntex]

In what way?

Dorsett averaged less than 15 carries per game in 1977. Just my opinion, but I don't consider that a " bell cow". He was definitely the lead back, but not a " bell cow".

 

[Idgit]

I think what you'll see is Randle start strong bursting free for long runs early but leveling out about game 7. R Williams will have a problem staying healthy and McFadden sucking but not as bad as in OAK. I really do believe you need a lead back if we are going to stay balanced .

Call Miami.

Possible we pickup someone for the other backs to have to take carries from.

Why do people think Randle necessarily can't carry the load? I get that it's an unknown until he actually does it, but the guy has shown all the physical skills to do everything that an NFL RB needs to do at one point or another. The only thing he hasn't done is earn the opportunity to do it more often. But he doesn't have a history of injury, doesn't run in a way that particularly invites injury, and no matter how we slice it, he's going to be playing in a fairly significant rotation. Concern about him being a knucklehead not worth extending I can understand, but he's really no more likely to get injured than most other backs, and less likely in my book to get hurt this coming season than Demarcus Murphy.

 

[Stash]

Dorsett averaged less than 15 carries per game in 1977. Just my opinion, but I don't consider that a " bell cow". He was definitely the lead back, but not a " bell cow".

Then again, Dorsett was a rookie still earning the trust of the coaching staff. His carries rose as the season progressed and by season's end, I would have considered him to be the team's bell cow.

What are your personal qualifiers for that 'bell cow' title?

 

[Alexander]

I'm going to retire from making threads.

Promises, promises.

 

[big dog cowboy]

Then again, Dorsett was a rookie still earning the trust of the coaching staff. His carries rose as the season progressed and by season's end, I would have considered him to be the team's bell cow.

Digging a little deeper into the stats. The last half of the 1977 season Dorsett did this:

16-39
16-50
17-73
19-64
23-206 (84 yard TD run)
20-92
17-50

128-574 or 4.48 avg. on 18.3 carries a game. He had 80 carries the first 7 games.