The Patrick Peterson Scenarios

[Shinywalrus]

Taking off from Hos's terrific summary post, I thought it might be interesting to look into the potential scenarios in which Dallas would end up drafting Patrick Peterson. As I recall from Hos's post, he had loosely assigned the trade up to grab Peterson a 10% chance or so. That may, of course, be absolutely right as you can never predict how willing a trade partner will be to pull the trigger on the day, but it seems to me that there are some reasonably likely scenarios.

Dallas' chances of landing Peterson seem to come down to is the two elite Wide Receivers, how they fall, and how various teams perceive outside interest in those players. The trade scenarios we have heard about seem to be driven by various teams' belief that they would be able to grab Jones at 9.

The biggest risk to Dallas landing Peterson seems to be the scenario where Carolina throws a curveball and grabs AJ Green. While one of Cincinnati or Arizona could conceivably grab a quarterback, it seems fairly unlikely that CIN, ARI and CLE would all pass on Jones or be willing to chance trading back.

Probably the next biggest threat is one of the first four teams simply grabbing Peterson, which is certainly a possibility.

The next no-Peterson scenario is, I think, CIN taking Green and ARI taking Jones, leaving Cleveland in a position where trading back doesn't really buy them anything.

Probably the final kink is other teams moving ahead of us or presenting a better offer. The biggest threat is very unlikely - if they weren't division rivals, I could certainly see SF trading up with Arizona to get ahead of the Cleveland trades scenarios to secure Peterson. I can't imagine Arizona would let that happen, however. More realistic scenarios that come to mind:

1. Houston presents a better offer to Cleveland, say, their pick and a #2.
2. New England presents a massive package of picks (although I hadn't heard that they were extaordinarily excited by PP, and this seems out of character)
3. Detroit trades up

The last threat, of course, is that Cleveland isn't happy with pick 9 and a 3rd round or feel worried that Tennessee may be after their guy.

Other than that, though, if Peterson falls past the first 4, which seems likely, I guess my default thinking that we'd be in the best position to get something done with Cleveland. I guess my intuition would put that probability more in the 1-in-4 range or higher, but maybe I'm clouded by optimism.

 

[MarionBarberThe4th]

[*]Houston presents a better offer to Cleveland, say, their pick and a #2.

I think at 11 they could lose their chance at Julio Jones or Quinn.

Im rooting for the first 5 to be Cam Newton, Dareus, Von Miller, AJ Green, and then Gabbert. This guarantees the Browns can get one of their top guys at 9. (Assuming the value Julio, Quinn, and Fariley high)

One problem could be what happens if they are afraid of the Niners, after being heart broken that we stole PP at 6, trades w/ the Commanders or Rams and Julio Jones is taken before the Browns could at 9. Hypothetically.

 

[Hostile]

San Francisco is absolutely our biggest threat and if they want to move up, there is nothing we can do.

 

[JBS]

San Francisco is absolutely our biggest threat and if they want to move up, there is nothing we can do.

I'm not arguing this one bit..but from everything that I have read, SF is interested in moving down..could be bs though, idk

 

[CATCH17]

The meaningless bowl probably cost us the best player in the draft .

 

[pupulehaole]

All this Patrick Peterson talk gets me giddy and i hate it lol. I just cant get my heart set on us moving up and grabbing him but its cool that it is actually slightly possible.

 

[RS12]

This team is not one player away, I question the wisdom of trading multiple picks for one guy.

 

[Shinywalrus]

This team is not one player away, I question the wisdom of trading multiple picks for one guy.

I'm not aware of scenarios that would have us do much more than trade away our 3rd round this year, and given Jerry's historical behavior, it seems an almost certainty that we'd trade back in the 2nd (and probably package our original 7th round pick or swap in another round) to get back into the third.

So we move up in the first by moving down in the second and probably another round.

Exactly what in this implies we would be behaving as though we were "one player away?" Confused.

 

[RS12]

I'm not aware of scenarios that would have us do much more than trade away our 3rd round this year, and given Jerry's historical behavior, it seems an almost certainty that we'd trade back in the 2nd (and probably package our original 7th round pick or swap in another round) to get back into the third.

So we move up in the first by moving down in the second and probably another round.

Exactly what in this implies we would be behaving as though we were "one player away?" Confused.

Simple. You'll likely be 15-20 spots behind where you were in rounds two and three in your scenario. Much better odds of getting multiple starters in the draft higher up in each round. This team has multiple holes on both lines at ILB and the secondary. Your scenario covers one hole, mine covers two and hopefully three. Also Jerry has shown to be a disaster at trading back in the draft. Another thing is the only place I'm convinced Peterson makes an instant impact is on special teams. All this IMO.

 

[Shinywalrus]

Simple. You'll likely be 15-20 spots behind where you were in rounds two and three in your scenario. Much better odds of getting multiple starters in the draft higher up in each round. This team has multiple holes on both lines at ILB and the secondary. Your scenario covers one hole, mine covers two and hopefully three. Also Jerry has shown to be a disaster at trading back in the draft. Another thing is the only place I'm convinced Peterson makes an instant impact is on special teams. All this IMO.

Yeah, I hear what you're saying, but the severity of the talent drop-off and success rates in later rounds is not nearly as steep.

At the end of the day, you're probably talking about going from top of Round 2 to very near the bottom of Round 2 in exchange for Peterson.

I guess I'm just saying that doesn't seem like a "one-player-will-fix-everything" kind of trade. But again, your point is valid.

 

[DFWJC]

Carolina should take AJ Green or Dareus at #1.

But nobody outside of Carolina seems to think that they will.

 

[RS12]

Yeah, I hear what you're saying, but the severity of the talent drop-off and success rates in later rounds is not nearly as steep.

At the end of the day, you're probably talking about going from top of Round 2 to very near the bottom of Round 2 in exchange for Peterson.

I guess I'm just saying that doesn't seem like a "one-player-will-fix-everything" kind of trade. But again, your point is valid.

I think the team would be miles ahead by signing Huff and Asomugha in FA, staying put or moving back 5 spots in the draft, focusing on both lines and the defense in the draft. Moving up to get Peterson reeks of the usual Jerry going for the shiny object and then making all kinds of draft trades that dont pan out.

 

[Robbieac]

The meaningless bowl probably cost us the best player in the draft .

:nono2: Talking like that is a no no in these neck of the woods.

You obviously aren't a true fan if you would rather loose a meaningless game and gain the best player in the draft.

Us true fans would rather win an utterly useless/unimportant/meaningless game and get a lesser player.


/sarcasm

 

[DFWJC]

The meaningless bowl probably cost us the best player in the draft .

:violin:
If he does fall to #6 this will be a topic, no doubt.

 

[Hostile]

The meaningless bowl probably cost us the best player in the draft .

I long for the day when you can wear big boy undies.

 

[JBS]

The meaningless bowl probably cost us the best player in the draft .

How do you figure? Wed be picking 6th if we lost..chances are Peterson is going to Az at 5 or O a team that trades with AZ..maybe 6th via a trade up..if Peterson goes 5th..losing the game vs Philly meant nothing..if Peterson goes 6, 7, or 8 and it's not to Dallas then yeah..but I don't see that happening.

 

[MarionBarberThe4th]

If the Eagles or the Cowboys starters were in I would have rooted for them to win.

How do you figure? Wed be picking 6th if we lost..chances are Peterson is going to Az at 5 or O a team that trades with AZ..maybe 6th via a trade up..if Peterson goes 5th..losing the game vs Philly meant nothing..if Peterson goes 6, 7, or 8 and it's not to Dallas then yeah..but I don't see that happening.

Arizona or Cincy would be so receptive to trading down to 6 in that scenario.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

C'mon guys... That win over the Eagles' collection of future insurance salesmen and dock workers was one for the ages.

~ adjusts pampers ~

 

[Hostile]

C'mon guys... That win over the Eagles' collection of future insurance salesmen and dock workers was one for the ages.

~ adjusts pampers ~

Thank heavens someone can laugh at stuff for a change. I have hope again.

 

[Cowboys22]

The meaningless bowl probably cost us the best player in the draft .

I know where you're coming from and there certainly is an arguement to be made from your point of view. However, I contend that having Garrett at head coach with the staff he has put together is more valuable that Peterson. As I recall, philly was resting alot of players and if Garrett would have lost that game, it might have pressure Jones to look elsewhere at head coach. If Jones had asked Garrett to throw the game on purpose and he agreed to it, then I wouldn't really want Garrett as coach anyway. A coach that accepts losing under any circumstance will never win anything.

Would it be nice to have the 5th or 6th pick? Yes! Would I rather have Garrett and the 9th pick? Most definately! So much so that I'm happy they won that last game because I feel that sealed the deal for Garrett as head coach.