CFZ The recent history of drafting a RB in the 1st round

[Bobhaze]

Below is a chart of all the RBs selected in the first round since 2012. Looking at this list can quickly explain why drafting a RB, especially early in round 1 is probably not the best use of draft capital.

Rd Year Pick

​

1​	2021​	24​	24​	Najee Harris​	Steelers​	Alabama​
1	2021​	25​	25​	Travis Etienne​	Jaguars​	Clemson​
1	2020​	32​	32​	Clyde Edwards-Helaire​	Chiefs​	Louisiana State​
1	2019​	24​	24​	Josh Jacobs​	Raiders​	Alabama​
1	2018​	2​	2​	Saquon Barkley​	Giants​	Penn State​
1	2018​	27​	27​	Rashaad Penny​	Seahawks​	San Diego State​
1	2018​	31​	31​	Sony Michel​	Patriots​	Georgia​
1	2017​	4​	4​	Leonard Fournette​	Jaguars​	Louisiana State​
1	2017​	8​	8​	Christian McCaffrey​	Panthers​	Stanford​
1	2016​	4​	4​	Ezekiel Elliott​	Cowboys​	Ohio State​
1	2015​	10​	10​	Todd Gurley​	Rams​	Georgia​
1	2015​	15​	15​	Melvin Gordon​	Chargers​	Wisconsin​
1	2012​	3​	3​	Trent Richardson​	Browns​	Alabama​
1	2012​	31​	31​	Doug Martin​	Buccaneers​	Boise State​
1	2012​	32​	32​	David Wilson​	Giants​	Virginia Tech​

Of the 15 first round RBs selected in round one in the last 11 drafts, only Zeke Elliott (2016, 2018) and Josh Jacobs (2022) have led the NFL in rushing in a season. The years 2013-14, not a single team selected a RB in round one.

And when looking at leading rusher stats the last 5 seasons, other than in 2018, first round RBs are not exactly killing it. In facts round 2 RBs are the most productive.

TOP 3 LEADING RUSHERS IN NFL BY YEAR (and round drafted)

• 2022- Josh Jacobs (rd 1), Derrick Henry (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2)
• 2021- Jonathan Taylor (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2), Joe Mixon (rd 2)
• 2020- Derrick Henry (rd 2), Dalvin Cook (rd 2), Jonathan Taylor rd 2)
• 2019- Derrick Henry (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2), Christian McCaffrey (rd 1)
• 2018- Ezekiel Elliott (rd 1), Saquon Barkley (rd 1), Todd Gurley (rd 1)

Looks like drafting a RB in round 2 is a better option than round 1 based on recent history.

 

[Proof]

unreal. hoping we don't return to the well this year. bijan or not, i'm not interested

 

[CowboyoWales]

Below is a chart of all the RBs selected in the first round since 2012. Looking at this list can quickly explain why drafting a RB, especially early in round 1 is probably not the best use of draft capital.

Rd Year Pick

​

1​	2021​	24​	24​	Najee Harris​	Steelers​	Alabama​
1	2021​	25​	25​	Travis Etienne​	Jaguars​	Clemson​
1	2020​	32​	32​	Clyde Edwards-Helaire​	Chiefs​	Louisiana State​
1	2019​	24​	24​	Josh Jacobs​	Raiders​	Alabama​
1	2018​	2​	2​	Saquon Barkley​	Giants​	Penn State​
1	2018​	27​	27​	Rashaad Penny​	Seahawks​	San Diego State​
1	2018​	31​	31​	Sony Michel​	Patriots​	Georgia​
1	2017​	4​	4​	Leonard Fournette​	Jaguars​	Louisiana State​
1	2017​	8​	8​	Christian McCaffrey​	Panthers​	Stanford​
1	2016​	4​	4​	Ezekiel Elliott​	Cowboys​	Ohio State​
1	2015​	10​	10​	Todd Gurley​	Rams​	Georgia​
1	2015​	15​	15​	Melvin Gordon​	Chargers​	Wisconsin​
1	2012​	3​	3​	Trent Richardson​	Browns​	Alabama​
1	2012​	31​	31​	Doug Martin​	Buccaneers​	Boise State​
1	2012​	32​	32​	David Wilson​	Giants​	Virginia Tech​

Of the 15 first round RBs selected in round one in the last 11 drafts, only Zeke Elliott (2016, 2018) and Josh Jacobs (2022) have led the NFL in rushing in a season. The years 2013-14, not a single team selected a RB in round one.

And when looking at leading rusher stats the last 5 seasons, other than in 2018, first round RBs are not exactly killing it. In facts round 2 RBs are the most productive.

TOP 3 LEADING RUSHERS IN NFL BY YEAR (and round drafted)

• 2022- Josh Jacobs (rd 1), Derrick Henry (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2)
• 2021- Jonathan Taylor (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2), Joe Mixon (rd 2)
• 2020- Derrick Henry (rd 2), Dalvin Cook (rd 2), Jonathan Taylor rd 2)
• 2019- Derrick Henry (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2), Christian McCaffrey (rd 1)
• 2018- Ezekiel Elliott (rd 1), Saquon Barkley (rd 1), Todd Gurley (rd 1)

Looks like drafting a RB in round 2 is a better option than round 1 based on recent history.

A counter point to that is that this year's draft is so weak that our no.26 pick is probably going to be a second round grading.
If a RB is BPA then take him.

 

[mcmvp]

Could not agree more…I’d even argue that round 2 may still be too early in most cases.

 

[GRCowboy]

A counter point to that is that this year's draft is so weak that our no.26 pick is probably going to be a second round grading.
If a RB is BPA then take him.

disagree....

straight up BPA is reserved for Day 3 picks.

With the first and second round pick you have to fit your team need without reaching. But running backs are a dime a dozen and you can get them anywhere. They are expendable and have a short shelf life.

 

[InPhiltraitor]

unreal. hoping we don't return to the well this year. bijan or not, i'm not interested

Proof, even before I saw your reference to Bijan his name came to mind.

There’s already been way-to-early draft discussion suggesting the Cowboys would be a suitor for Robinson if he was available at 26.

Hopefully someone steps in a takes him off the Jones’ plate cuz a talented Longhorn being drafted by the Cowboys is just the “splash” JJ likes to crow about.

Don’t get me wrong, I think BR is a great back, but I just don’t value RB’s anymore with a first round selection.

 

[CowboyoWales]

disagree....

straight up BPA is reserved for Day 3 picks.

With the first and second round pick you have to fit your team need without reaching. But running backs are a dime a dozen and you can get them anywhere. They are expendable and have a short shelf life.

That's what gets you the Taco's of this world and pass on CeeDee.

 

[Bobhaze]

Proof, even before I saw your reference to Bijan his name came to mind.

There’s already been way-to-early draft discussion suggesting the Cowboys would be a suitor for Robinson if he was available at 26.

Hopefully someone steps in a takes him off the Jones’ plate cuz a talented Longhorn being drafted by the Cowboys is just the “splash” JJ likes to crow about.

Don’t get me wrong, I think BR is a great back, but I just don’t value RB’s anymore with a first round selection.

Robinson could be available in early round 2 if Cowboys wanted to trade down and get an extra 2nd round pick. With the multiple needs this team has, it would seem malpractice to draft a RB in round one.

 

[Aven8]

In our case it depends on what’s a available at 26. I see that pick as almost a 2nd anyways. Most of the NFL will have 15-18 first round grades. Having said that if Robinson from UT is there at 26 you have to take him. He will most definitely be the highest player on the board and he would be BPA.

Having said that I’m not franchising Pollard and than taking Robinson. That’s a waste IMO. I know you need two backs but that’s way too much.

The sad part of it is they won’t get rid of Zeke or TP until they know they have a RB. If that happens than we’re going into the draft having to draft one.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

Looks like drafting a RB in round 2 is a better option than round 1 based on recent history.

Reason??? Agents are no longer letting teams run the hell out of their players for 5 years and then wanna dump them or offer a low value contract. Instead, they are forcing teams to give a new one immediately after the 3rd year of service. That way they can threaten to sit out forcing the team to lose at least 2 years of service or trade them.
Drafting one in the second round makes it a bit easier to get 3 years w/o a new deal coz there's no 5th-year option.

IMO, you can blame Stephen Jones for this. It all started when we ran DeMarco Murray to the ground on a contract year. He lead the league in rushing and paved the way for Romo to have the best year of his career. But after the season Stephen refused to pay him anything over $5M per year. In fact, he was arrogant enough to show the press some studies about RBs starting to decline after 5-6 years. He and Jerry were boasting about how any RB could gain 1000 yards behind our great Oline. Never mind, Jason Garrett, Jason Witten and Romo pleaded with Stephen and Jerry to make sure Murray returns. It didn't happen coz we had Joesph Randell.......rest is history.

Agents in the RB community took notes ........the next two or three top RBs drafted in the first refused wanted new contracts immediately after year 3.

Sorry for the long wind here but I'll never forgive Stephen Jones for how he handled Murray's contract coz I honestly believe 2015 was our Super Bowl window.

 

[JIMMYBUFFETT]

The Cowboys probably won't have but about 15-20 first round grades, B. Robinson will be one of them, and most likely in their top 10. You can absolutely pick up running backs later in the draft, but are you willing to leave a top 10 player and a position of need on the board when your picking at 26? Forget the position we're talking about, and forget the bad Zeke taste in your mouth for a minute. Are you willing to leave the #1 rated offensive player in the draft on most boards, and #1 rated at his position group sitting on the board at 26? While I am, I'm not sure Dallas will and I won't blame them.

 

[fivetwos]

Reason??? Agents are no longer letting teams run the hell out of their players for 5 years and then wanna dump them or offer a low value contract. Instead, they are forcing teams to give a new one immediately after the 3rd year of service. That way they can threaten to sit out forcing the team to lose at least 2 years of service or trade them.
Drafting one in the second round makes it a bit easier to get 3 years w/o a new deal coz there's no 5th-year option.

IMO, you can blame Stephen Jones for this. It all started when we ran DeMarco Murray to the ground on a contract year. He lead the league in rushing and paved the way for Romo to have the best year of his career. But after the season Stephen refused to pay him anything over $5M per year. In fact, he was arrogant enough to show the press some studies about RBs starting to decline after 5-6 years. He and Jerry were boasting about how any RB could gain 1000 yards behind our great Oline. Never mind, Jason Garrett, Jason Witten and Romo pleaded with Stephen and Jerry to make sure Murray returns. It didn't happen coz we had Joesph Randell.......rest is history.

Agents in the RB community took notes ........the next two or three top RBs drafted in the first refused wanted new contracts immediately after year 3.

Sorry for the long wind here but I'll never forgive Stephen Jones for how he handled Murray's contract coz I honestly believe 2015 was our Super Bowl window.

Good stuff, thanks. My initial thought was similar.

Even if the player is to fully cooperate and plays out the full four years and the fifth year option (which probably means they didn’t perform all that well), you don’t want to be giving a second contract to a RB considering how they age in dog years.

You can’t go into a first round investment fully knowing up front you’re not giving them a second contract.

They need to use mid to late round picks on RB semi-consistently, and get to where they have three capable players of equal skill set.

This way you can’t get held up with a Cano routine, and a mid game injury in the playoffs may not end your season.

I don’t at all think Jerry and kid think that way though. They are still in triplet land, jersuh sahlin line of thinking. #21 is still probably a top five seller on the team, and why they want him back.

 

[MyFairLady]

Methinks you forgot to factor in jersey sales and GM interview time.

 

[Bobhaze]

The Cowboys probably won't have but about 15-20 first round grades, B. Robinson will be one of them, and most likely in their top 10. You can absolutely pick up running backs later in the draft, but are you willing to leave a top 10 player and a position of need on the board when your picking at 26? Forget the position we're talking about, and forget the bad Zeke taste in your mouth for a minute. Are you willing to leave the #1 rated offensive player in the draft on most boards, and #1 rated at his position group sitting on the board at 26? While I am, I'm not sure Dallas will and I won't blame them.

Yes, I would absolutely be willing to pass on a RB with a first round grade. It’s crystal clear, you get very little value at the RB position in round one compared to other positions. For example, OL, DL, even WRs have much better value in the first round than RBs.

On top of that, recent history shows very few first round backs last more than 5-7 years at peak performance. A great OL or DL taken in round one gives you more years of value. It’s why taking a RB in round 2-5 makes much better sense in terms of value.

 

[conner01]

A counter point to that is that this year's draft is so weak that our no.26 pick is probably going to be a second round grading.
If a RB is BPA then take him.

I don’t think 26 is as weak as some think. At some positions it will be but not all the positions we need. DT will be picked over as will DE and probably WR. But we also need CB and I don’t think it will be.

 

[maryquality]

As much as I love BJ Robinson (UT fan here), there's no way he will be available at spot 26. Hopefully Jerry won't be an idiot and trade up to get him!!

 

[rags747]

Thank God we have McClay making these decisions and not some fanboys at home.

 

[Bobhaze]

The last RB drafted in the first round to make the NFL HOF was Marshall Faulk, drafted in round 1 in 1994.

 

[kskboys]

Below is a chart of all the RBs selected in the first round since 2012. Looking at this list can quickly explain why drafting a RB, especially early in round 1 is probably not the best use of draft capital.

Rd Year Pick

​

1​	2021​	24​	24​	Najee Harris​	Steelers​	Alabama​
1	2021​	25​	25​	Travis Etienne​	Jaguars​	Clemson​
1	2020​	32​	32​	Clyde Edwards-Helaire​	Chiefs​	Louisiana State​
1	2019​	24​	24​	Josh Jacobs​	Raiders​	Alabama​
1	2018​	2​	2​	Saquon Barkley​	Giants​	Penn State​
1	2018​	27​	27​	Rashaad Penny​	Seahawks​	San Diego State​
1	2018​	31​	31​	Sony Michel​	Patriots​	Georgia​
1	2017​	4​	4​	Leonard Fournette​	Jaguars​	Louisiana State​
1	2017​	8​	8​	Christian McCaffrey​	Panthers​	Stanford​
1	2016​	4​	4​	Ezekiel Elliott​	Cowboys​	Ohio State​
1	2015​	10​	10​	Todd Gurley​	Rams​	Georgia​
1	2015​	15​	15​	Melvin Gordon​	Chargers​	Wisconsin​
1	2012​	3​	3​	Trent Richardson​	Browns​	Alabama​
1	2012​	31​	31​	Doug Martin​	Buccaneers​	Boise State​
1	2012​	32​	32​	David Wilson​	Giants​	Virginia Tech​

Of the 15 first round RBs selected in round one in the last 11 drafts, only Zeke Elliott (2016, 2018) and Josh Jacobs (2022) have led the NFL in rushing in a season. The years 2013-14, not a single team selected a RB in round one.

And when looking at leading rusher stats the last 5 seasons, other than in 2018, first round RBs are not exactly killing it. In facts round 2 RBs are the most productive.

TOP 3 LEADING RUSHERS IN NFL BY YEAR (and round drafted)

• 2022- Josh Jacobs (rd 1), Derrick Henry (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2)
• 2021- Jonathan Taylor (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2), Joe Mixon (rd 2)
• 2020- Derrick Henry (rd 2), Dalvin Cook (rd 2), Jonathan Taylor rd 2)
• 2019- Derrick Henry (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2), Christian McCaffrey (rd 1)
• 2018- Ezekiel Elliott (rd 1), Saquon Barkley (rd 1), Todd Gurley (rd 1)

Looks like drafting a RB in round 2 is a better option than round 1 based on recent history.

IDK, man, the last 4 have all been quality. Might be one of the few times you and I disagree!!!!!!!!

It's not about leading the league in rushing, it's about effectiveness.

 

[kskboys]

Yes, I would absolutely be willing to pass on a RB with a first round grade. It’s crystal clear, you get very little value at the RB position in round one compared to other positions. For example, OL, DL, even WRs have much better value in the first round than RBs.

On top of that, recent history shows very few first round backs last more than 5-7 years at peak performance. A great OL or DL taken in round one gives you more years of value. It’s why taking a RB in round 2-5 makes much better sense in terms of value.

The ONLY way in which I disagree is if you can get a tough yards RB, a late first rounder is way worth it. On the flipside, you can often find guys like Pierce, Hou, in the mid rounds.