plasticman
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How much influence did Cowboy Head Coaches actually have when it comes to the draft?
I beleive it varies according to the Head Coach, his reputation, and the circumstances surrounding his hiring.
To get a better understanding of a HC's contributions in acquiring talent I have devloped a statistical program that ranks the collective drafts during each of the past four HC's tenure. The periods cover the 2000 through the 2015 seasons. These ranks are based on how the draft classes performed as compared to other teams in the NFL for those particular drafts.
Now, what do I mean by "performed"? That is, what criteria do I use when evaluating a group of drafts. Certainly, there will be disagreements on exactly how you rate a draft.
What I did was each draft is assigned a value that is based equally on the combination of Pro Bowl selections, number of games players started and number of games played.. I got data from players that are perennial pro bowl selections right down to the players that only played a few downs in one game.
I compare the totals for the other teams during those periods. Each team is ranked from 1 to 32 for each of the three categories. From that, a final score is given. Finally, each team is ranked based on that final score.
What I came up with was pretty much what I expected.
The Cowboys have employed two different types of coaches. The first group are Jerry Jones fill ins, part of the 500 Club, I call them. They would include guys like Barry switzer, Dave Campo, and Wade Phillips. They had verry little influence in deciding the way in which the team would acquire talent although Im sure they were involved in the selection of a particular player to some small degree.
The other group are the real coaches. These are the guys that are here to build a team their way with the kind of guys they want. They don't always get what they want but their influence dominate the decision making. They always come with a specific plan, they are not fill ins to an already successful system. Typically, they have already found success at a different or similar level. These are guys like Jimmy Johnson and Bill Parcells.
What type is Jason Garrett? I think I can demonstrate that with the results I have found. Keep in mind that Jason is the son of a career NFL scout and brother to the guy who was once the Dallas Cowboys Director of Pro Scouting. He has been anything but a spectator in building this team. he is the main architect.
The Results:
Campo __ . Parcells _ Phillips _ Garrett
2000-2002 _ 2003-2006 _ 2007-2010 _ 2011-2015
Team __ Rank _ Rank _ Rank _ Rank
ARI ___ 6 ___ 3 ___ 26 ___ 10
ATL ___ 24 ___ 21 ___ 10 ___ 25
BAL ___ 4 ___ 7 ___ 8 ___ 9
BUF ___ 13 ___ 26 ___ 16 ___ 5
CAR ___ 2 ___ 12 ___ 3 ___ 21
CHI ___ 17 ___ 11 ___ 24 ___ 23
CIN ___ 7 ___ 15 ___ 17 ___ 6
CLE ___ 22 ___ 24 ___ 18 ___ 11
DAL ___ 25 ___ 1 ___ 20 ___ 7
DEN ___ 19 ___ 27 ___ 15 ___ 13
DET ___ 16 ___ 32 ___ 7 ___ 31
GNB ___ 15 ___ 13 ___ 1 ___ 19
HOU ___ 32 ___ 14 ___ 14 ___ 3
IND ___ 8 ___ 8 ___ 27 ___ 26
JAX ___ 11 ___ 18 ___ 23 ___ 24
KAN ___ 30 ___ 16 ___ 6 ___ 15
MIA ___ 29 ___ 29 ___ 5 ___ 14
MIN ___ 28 ___ 23 ___ 22 ___ 2
NOR ___ 20 ___ 17 ___ 25 ___ 32
NWE ___ 12 ___ 5 ___ 13 ___ 22
NYG ___ 27 ___ 6 ___ 31 ___ 30
NYJ ___ 1 ___ 9 ___ 28 ___ 27
OAK ___ 21 ___ 28 ___ 19 ___ 12
PHI ___ 14 ___ 25 ___ 9 ___ 18
PIT ___ 3 ___ 20 ___ 4 ___ 28
SDG ___ 10 ___ 2 ___ 32 ___ 29
SEA ___ 5 ___ 22 ___ 11 ___ 1
SFO ___ 9 ___ 4 ___ 2 ___ 20
STL ___ 23 ___ 19 ___ 29 ___ 4
TAM ___ 31 ___ 31 ___ 21 ___ 16
TEN ___ 18 ___ 10 ___ 12 ___ 17
WAS ___ 26 ___ 30 ___ 30 ___ 8
(Sorry about the krappee formatting)
Dave Campo - During Campo's time as a HC, the drafting was ....well,....really really bad. They were ranked 25th out of 32 teams. The only thing that kept out of the absolute bottom was the fact that they had two perennial Pro Bowlers in Andre Gurode and safety Roy Williams. Other than that, it was a desert. They were in 31st place for totals games played in and 27th in total starts. Not much productivity here.
Bill Parcells - Say what you will about his style and his attitude but this guy knew talent. Of course, it's not like he didn't have his busts, and there is his opposition to the Ware selection, every HC is going to have his misses, heck, Jimmy didn't want to draft Emmitt Smith but was convinced by a scout at the last minute. However the guys that the Cowboys picked up during his tenure played a lot of football. For the 4 years that Parcells helped with the "grocery shopping", the Cowboys were ranked #1 in the league in their pick's productivity. Not only did the Cowboys reach the top draftwise, but we aren't even including the rookie free agent finds like Pro Bowlers Miles Austin, Matt McBriar and a certain quarterback. The drafts over that 4 years had 17 players that played in at least 80 games, five full seasons worth. They had the #2 ranking in that category and #3 ranking in starts.
Wade Phillips.- Almost as soon as Parcells hit the door the draft quality began to slide towards the bottom. The team was ranked 20th during the Phillips years, 2007 through 2010, Phillips was the HC during that last draft. They ranked 26th in games started. The 2008 and 2010 drafts were respectable with guys like Sean Lee, Dez Bryant, Martellus Bennett, Mike Jenkins and Orlando Scandrick. The 2009 draft was horrendous. Twelve players chosen as Jerry Jones kept trading down for more picks. The 8 players chosen before the 6th round started a total of 8 games. Three of the remaining 4 didn't start a single game.
Jason Garrett - 7th place among the 32 teams in drafting quality. Obviously, this is the least experienced group which means they still have the most football to play. I wouldn't be surprised if this group reaches #1 in the league. Jason Garrett has put his stamp on the drafts, particularly the first two drafts, 2011 and 2012. I suspect his influence has declined slightly due to Jerry Jones's re-emergence in the decision making. He was particularly quiet, or as quiet as he is capable, after the firing of Phillips. You could tell after the infamous Packer "quitters" game that he knew he had screwed up a good team built by Parcells. He was willing, albeit temporarily, to extend some power and authority to Stephen Jones and Jason Garrett. However, once he realized that the team was getting better, he reeled them in so there would be no mistaking who should get the credit. I credit him for some pretty poor draft trade maneuvering in the last two drafts. However, 9 Pro Bowls, a thousand games played and over 500 starts for a group of players, all having 5 years or less experience, is impressive.
To summarize:
There is a definite correlation between the quality of Cowboys drafts and the influence exerted by the Head Coach. The more they are involved in the decision making, implying less for Jones, the better off the draft. And for those of you who may be victims of Jerry's revisionist history, Jimmy Johnson had absolute and full control of personnel decisions while he was there. It was written in his contract. It was why Jerry Jones said he would never extend that power to another Head Coach....unfortunately.
Other observations:
When you look at the time frames on these drafts you can see why certain teams found a lot of success a few years later. For example, the 49ers had great drafts prior to 2011 and built a Super Bowl team. recently, their drafts have dived. This is a direct correlation with the hiring of their current GM. Another failed season and I believe he will be history.
The Ravens and Seahawks had impressive drafting periods prior to 2011 and it shows in their championship appearances. The Commanders and Giants are two of the consistently poor drafting teams in the 21st century.
Carolina is another team that has hit gold with their drafts.
Based on the quality of their recent drafts, the teams most likely to surprise starting this season are the Vikings, Bills, Rams , and Texans. The teams beginning to fade are the Chargers, Saints, Steelers, and Falcons.
I beleive it varies according to the Head Coach, his reputation, and the circumstances surrounding his hiring.
To get a better understanding of a HC's contributions in acquiring talent I have devloped a statistical program that ranks the collective drafts during each of the past four HC's tenure. The periods cover the 2000 through the 2015 seasons. These ranks are based on how the draft classes performed as compared to other teams in the NFL for those particular drafts.
Now, what do I mean by "performed"? That is, what criteria do I use when evaluating a group of drafts. Certainly, there will be disagreements on exactly how you rate a draft.
What I did was each draft is assigned a value that is based equally on the combination of Pro Bowl selections, number of games players started and number of games played.. I got data from players that are perennial pro bowl selections right down to the players that only played a few downs in one game.
I compare the totals for the other teams during those periods. Each team is ranked from 1 to 32 for each of the three categories. From that, a final score is given. Finally, each team is ranked based on that final score.
What I came up with was pretty much what I expected.
The Cowboys have employed two different types of coaches. The first group are Jerry Jones fill ins, part of the 500 Club, I call them. They would include guys like Barry switzer, Dave Campo, and Wade Phillips. They had verry little influence in deciding the way in which the team would acquire talent although Im sure they were involved in the selection of a particular player to some small degree.
The other group are the real coaches. These are the guys that are here to build a team their way with the kind of guys they want. They don't always get what they want but their influence dominate the decision making. They always come with a specific plan, they are not fill ins to an already successful system. Typically, they have already found success at a different or similar level. These are guys like Jimmy Johnson and Bill Parcells.
What type is Jason Garrett? I think I can demonstrate that with the results I have found. Keep in mind that Jason is the son of a career NFL scout and brother to the guy who was once the Dallas Cowboys Director of Pro Scouting. He has been anything but a spectator in building this team. he is the main architect.
The Results:
Campo __ . Parcells _ Phillips _ Garrett
2000-2002 _ 2003-2006 _ 2007-2010 _ 2011-2015
Team __ Rank _ Rank _ Rank _ Rank
ARI ___ 6 ___ 3 ___ 26 ___ 10
ATL ___ 24 ___ 21 ___ 10 ___ 25
BAL ___ 4 ___ 7 ___ 8 ___ 9
BUF ___ 13 ___ 26 ___ 16 ___ 5
CAR ___ 2 ___ 12 ___ 3 ___ 21
CHI ___ 17 ___ 11 ___ 24 ___ 23
CIN ___ 7 ___ 15 ___ 17 ___ 6
CLE ___ 22 ___ 24 ___ 18 ___ 11
DAL ___ 25 ___ 1 ___ 20 ___ 7
DEN ___ 19 ___ 27 ___ 15 ___ 13
DET ___ 16 ___ 32 ___ 7 ___ 31
GNB ___ 15 ___ 13 ___ 1 ___ 19
HOU ___ 32 ___ 14 ___ 14 ___ 3
IND ___ 8 ___ 8 ___ 27 ___ 26
JAX ___ 11 ___ 18 ___ 23 ___ 24
KAN ___ 30 ___ 16 ___ 6 ___ 15
MIA ___ 29 ___ 29 ___ 5 ___ 14
MIN ___ 28 ___ 23 ___ 22 ___ 2
NOR ___ 20 ___ 17 ___ 25 ___ 32
NWE ___ 12 ___ 5 ___ 13 ___ 22
NYG ___ 27 ___ 6 ___ 31 ___ 30
NYJ ___ 1 ___ 9 ___ 28 ___ 27
OAK ___ 21 ___ 28 ___ 19 ___ 12
PHI ___ 14 ___ 25 ___ 9 ___ 18
PIT ___ 3 ___ 20 ___ 4 ___ 28
SDG ___ 10 ___ 2 ___ 32 ___ 29
SEA ___ 5 ___ 22 ___ 11 ___ 1
SFO ___ 9 ___ 4 ___ 2 ___ 20
STL ___ 23 ___ 19 ___ 29 ___ 4
TAM ___ 31 ___ 31 ___ 21 ___ 16
TEN ___ 18 ___ 10 ___ 12 ___ 17
WAS ___ 26 ___ 30 ___ 30 ___ 8
(Sorry about the krappee formatting)
Dave Campo - During Campo's time as a HC, the drafting was ....well,....really really bad. They were ranked 25th out of 32 teams. The only thing that kept out of the absolute bottom was the fact that they had two perennial Pro Bowlers in Andre Gurode and safety Roy Williams. Other than that, it was a desert. They were in 31st place for totals games played in and 27th in total starts. Not much productivity here.
Bill Parcells - Say what you will about his style and his attitude but this guy knew talent. Of course, it's not like he didn't have his busts, and there is his opposition to the Ware selection, every HC is going to have his misses, heck, Jimmy didn't want to draft Emmitt Smith but was convinced by a scout at the last minute. However the guys that the Cowboys picked up during his tenure played a lot of football. For the 4 years that Parcells helped with the "grocery shopping", the Cowboys were ranked #1 in the league in their pick's productivity. Not only did the Cowboys reach the top draftwise, but we aren't even including the rookie free agent finds like Pro Bowlers Miles Austin, Matt McBriar and a certain quarterback. The drafts over that 4 years had 17 players that played in at least 80 games, five full seasons worth. They had the #2 ranking in that category and #3 ranking in starts.
Wade Phillips.- Almost as soon as Parcells hit the door the draft quality began to slide towards the bottom. The team was ranked 20th during the Phillips years, 2007 through 2010, Phillips was the HC during that last draft. They ranked 26th in games started. The 2008 and 2010 drafts were respectable with guys like Sean Lee, Dez Bryant, Martellus Bennett, Mike Jenkins and Orlando Scandrick. The 2009 draft was horrendous. Twelve players chosen as Jerry Jones kept trading down for more picks. The 8 players chosen before the 6th round started a total of 8 games. Three of the remaining 4 didn't start a single game.
Jason Garrett - 7th place among the 32 teams in drafting quality. Obviously, this is the least experienced group which means they still have the most football to play. I wouldn't be surprised if this group reaches #1 in the league. Jason Garrett has put his stamp on the drafts, particularly the first two drafts, 2011 and 2012. I suspect his influence has declined slightly due to Jerry Jones's re-emergence in the decision making. He was particularly quiet, or as quiet as he is capable, after the firing of Phillips. You could tell after the infamous Packer "quitters" game that he knew he had screwed up a good team built by Parcells. He was willing, albeit temporarily, to extend some power and authority to Stephen Jones and Jason Garrett. However, once he realized that the team was getting better, he reeled them in so there would be no mistaking who should get the credit. I credit him for some pretty poor draft trade maneuvering in the last two drafts. However, 9 Pro Bowls, a thousand games played and over 500 starts for a group of players, all having 5 years or less experience, is impressive.
To summarize:
There is a definite correlation between the quality of Cowboys drafts and the influence exerted by the Head Coach. The more they are involved in the decision making, implying less for Jones, the better off the draft. And for those of you who may be victims of Jerry's revisionist history, Jimmy Johnson had absolute and full control of personnel decisions while he was there. It was written in his contract. It was why Jerry Jones said he would never extend that power to another Head Coach....unfortunately.
Other observations:
When you look at the time frames on these drafts you can see why certain teams found a lot of success a few years later. For example, the 49ers had great drafts prior to 2011 and built a Super Bowl team. recently, their drafts have dived. This is a direct correlation with the hiring of their current GM. Another failed season and I believe he will be history.
The Ravens and Seahawks had impressive drafting periods prior to 2011 and it shows in their championship appearances. The Commanders and Giants are two of the consistently poor drafting teams in the 21st century.
Carolina is another team that has hit gold with their drafts.
Based on the quality of their recent drafts, the teams most likely to surprise starting this season are the Vikings, Bills, Rams , and Texans. The teams beginning to fade are the Chargers, Saints, Steelers, and Falcons.
; they haven't even played a down yet (but also weren't reaches on general draft player grade) w/trends seen in the past; no Matt Johnson's, passing on RBs when your leading rusher leaves the team, got DL depth etc.