The State of the Cowboys

[jobberone]

Every day I see the frustration of the present and past. While the last 17 years haven't been a complete failure neither has it produced the Holy Grail. So the cry of the people has risen over time to the current level.

And every day there are multiple reasons for that failure echoed on message boards and in the local and national media.

I'm not going to defend or indict anyone or anything but I’ll give you some facts to ponder. I've always believed you should look at the environment around you before starting to focus on the smaller parts when assessing a problem.

In the NFL you dont have to look beyond your record, points scored and allowed, and turnovers to get the big picture. I'm leavng off the beginnings of looking deeper like field position yada.

For years the goal of the offense has been to score 25 or more points a game, win the turnover battle, and give up 17 points per game or less. I'm not so certain that the goalposts have not moved on that but I don't have any different numbers on hand so we'll use those.

Here are the recent numbers for the Boys and you can use the link to gather more data.

2012 Dallas Cowboys
Record: 8-8-0, Finished 3rd in NFC East Division
NFL Season Summary
Scored 376 points (23.5/g), 15th of 32 in the NFL.
Allowed 400 points (25.0/g), 24th.
Differential of -24 points (-1.5/g), 19th.
Expected W-L: 7.4-8.6.
Takeaway/Giveaway Differential -13 (-0.8/g), 27th.
Simple Rating System: Total 0.3, Offense: 1.4, Defense: -1.2, SoS: 1.8, versus averages of 0.0.

2011 Dallas Cowboys
Franchise Index: Previous Season / Next Season
Record: 8-8-0, Finished 2nd in NFC East Division
NFL Season Summary
Scored 369 points (23.1/g), 15th of 32 in the NFL.
Allowed 347 points (21.7/g), 16th.
Differential of 22 points (1.4/g), 12th.
Expected W-L: 8.6-7.4.
Takeaway/Giveaway Differential +4 (0.2/g), 10th.
Simple Rating System: Total 1.6, Offense: 0.7, Defense: 0.9, SoS: 0.3, versus averages of 0.0.

2010 Dallas Cowboys
Franchise Index: Previous Season / Next Season
Record: 6-10-0, Finished 3rd in NFC East Division
NFL Season Summary
Scored 394 points (24.6/g), 7th of 32 in the NFL.
Allowed 436 points (27.2/g), 31st.
Differential of -42 points (-2.6/g), 21st.
Expected W-L: 7.0-9.0.
Takeaway/Giveaway Differential 0 (0.0/g), 13th.
Simple Rating System: Total -2.2, Offense: 2.5, Defense: -4.7, SoS: 0.5, versus averages of 0.0.

2009 Dallas Cowboys
Franchise Index: Previous Season / Next Season
Record: 11-5-0, Finished 1st in NFC East Division
NFL Season Summary
Scored 361 points (22.6/g), 14th of 32 in the NFL.
Allowed 250 points (15.6/g), 2nd.
Differential of 111 points (6.9/g), 8th.
Expected W-L: 11.3-4.7.
Takeaway/Giveaway Differential +2 (0.1/g), 13th.
Simple Rating System: Total 7.1, Offense: 0.4, Defense: 6.7, SoS: 0.2, versus averages of 0.0.

2008 Dallas Cowboys
Record: 9-7-0, Finished 3rd in NFC East Division
NFL Season Summary
Scored 362 points (22.6/g), 18th of 32 in the NFL.
Allowed 365 points (22.8/g), 20th.
Differential of -3 points (-0.2/g), 19th.
Expected W-L: 7.9-8.1.
Takeaway/Giveaway Differential -11 (-0.7/g), 30th.
Simple Rating System: Total 0.6, Offense: 1.7, Defense: -1.2, SoS: 0.8, versus averages of 0.0.

2007 Dallas Cowboys

Record: 13-3-0, Finished 1st in NFC East Division
NFL Season Summary

Scored 455 points (28.4/g), 2nd of 32 in the NFL.
Allowed 325 points (20.3/g), 13th.
Differential of 130 points (8.1/g), 4th.
Expected W-L: 11.0-5.0.
Takeaway/Giveaway Differential +5 (0.3/g), 8th. Simple Rating System: Total 9.5, Offense: 7.8, Defense: 1.7, SoS: 1.3, versus averages of 0.0.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/dal/2008.htm

I call your attention to the 2009 and 2007 editions and you'll see those numbers come to life.

Ok, so what? Well now you know where to start looking. You had a dominant defense in 2009 and a very good offense in 2007. The offense has failed the team missed the cut off then albeit barely. Excepting 2009 the defense has been either mediocre or faled although its generally been 'better' than the offense. I say that because if the offense had scored its quota then the team would have been in the hunt. Last year they both failed.

And turnovers have been a chronic problem although in the black in the good seasons. You can point fingers at the offense not protecting the ball and the defense not forcing enough turnovers.

I'm sure some will say we already knew that but I rarely see these numbers discussed on this site. At least not in one place.

From there you can start to look at the FO, talent and coaching to begin to understand why are we failing.

My first reaction is what happened to the offense at the end of 2007 or if you wish in 2008. I think the offense failed at the end of the season. Surely someone will say the league caught up to Jason's offense. Then my next question will be how?

 

[Bluestang]

The answer to your question there at the end is, the NFL caught up with Terrell Owens.

Look at his TD production from 2007 and then look at 2008.

2009 - Austin broke out and almost had the same production as T.O. in 2007 but it wasn't until that KS game. And then you have 2010 w/o Romo and 2011 and 2012 with hamstring injuries.

Bryant turned it on at the second half of the season, but it was a bit too late because of the games we lost in that first half.

You can combine that with the OL struggles and turnaround in personnel in that area and you can see that Jason is not able to reach the 400+ pt mark.

 

[Tabascocat]

My first reaction is what happened to the offense at the end of 2007 or if you wish in 2008. I think the offense failed at the end of the season. Surely someone will say the league caught up to Jason's offense. Then my next question will be how?

I think the offense hasn't evolved, much at all since 2007. It is not hard for coaches to figure out our offensive patterns and gameplans. It is no secret our offense goes through Witten and that needs to change if this offense has any hopes of improving. Garrett's offense remained predictable and stagnate with inefficiency at the wrong times. It is the coaches job to change and adapt before, during and after each game.

A pattern still remained every week and that is to start out slow to figure out the defense. Usually by the time the offense starts clicking, it is too late. Why not have our own offense dictate the flow for once? Well, they actually did once and that was the season opener. Since that game, that mentality disappeared.

I believe Garrett's offensive strategy could work, but not without a good offensive line. Murray has to stay on the field as well. If those two things do not happen, then there needs to be different plays utilized more often to account for those deficiencies. So far, Garrett has not done so.

 

[Sarge]

:signmast: Especially re: Witten.

 

[ShiningStar]

what it will break down to is each fans flavor of desire for hte boys to win. And some people are seeing things differently and i agree with some and disagree with others.

For me a lot rested on the coaches, and it was nice to see those changes. Will it make next year better? who knows, but at least something was done.

I think we should give Hanna more oppurtunity this year, but im seeing from a limited scope compared to what the coaches see and know. I dont want to wait for Wittens replacement, i want to get it going.

Same with Romo, Im okay with romo staying as Qb, but his replacement had better get on the team soon.

The defense will be a mixed bowl this year. New things to learn and plenty to shuffle for a while.

I want to see what Callahans line looks like with a year under their belt, well for who will have a year with him. But I liked Cook, and I liked how Callahan wasnt standing pat for to long and started moving pieces around. I htink the coaches need to get more players rotated in and make everyone accountable for winning, not just the starters.

Nice to see our releases as well. Good to see Ogletree moving on, and us going beyond Sensabaugh. You want the youth movement, but you want talent in each position.

Im not always one to want to blow the team up just because they dont do what i want from them, but I think the moves we have made we good ones.

So far its been a good offseason.

 

[Frosty]

Good post, IMO, its always been about the coaching. Really have the gut feeling there was/is a lot of CHAOS behind the scenes at Valley Ranch the last few years. I don't think Garrett and Phillips ever got along, and even Mr Big Mouth Rob Ryan made some enemies within the staff...

Coaching has impacted this team for the last 17yrs, no continuity, no strong leader to take charge and be in charge. Blame Jerry for the Coaching carousel. It has effected the draft, FA and chemistry of this team.

IMO its just as important for the Coaching staff to work together in unison as the players on the field and in the locker room......There has been and is, a lot of talent on this team.....but it takes leaders on the Coaching staff to create the winning chemistry...ALA Jimmy Johnson, Tom Landry, Don Shula and even the Harbaugh brothers. Finding the right kind of coaching staff and keeping the right kind of coaching staff in place has always been the GM Jerry Jones downfall. (Dave Campo, Chan Galley, Parcells, Phillips and Garrett).

Make no bones about it, I doubt Jason Garrett has the ability or Jerry will give Garrett the ability to build and keep the staff this team needs.... But I will support Garrett (I think, lol) he could be the answer, but I doubt it.

 

[Eskimo]

I think the biggest thing that happened towards the end of 2007 is that the OL just started to underperform. Then you add the TO injury and it is pretty obvious why they failed to beat the Giants who they had beaten twice easily in the regular season. Would the result have been different with a healthy TO - we'll never know.

Now since then the offense has mostly struggled to get above 25 ppg. I think part of the problem has been field position due to mediocre special teams and a defense that has not been able to create TOs outside of the second half of 2010 season when they were getting gashed for yardage and points but at least creating TOs for the offense.

As for the road forward, they need to get the OL play better. When the OL manages to stalemate the DL Romo usually does some really good things and we can look downright dominant at times. Look at how we whipped Seattle in 2011 when the OL was playing well with Holland at LG and Kosier still healthy. To fix the OL I think they need to do a better job of committing to a style and then sticking to it so they can develop cheaper options. They may need to tweak their OL ranking system since they frequently seem to underrate OL compared to where they are actually drafted (going by the infamous 2010 draft chart). Where would we be if we had traded up for Unger in 2009?

The other side of the ledger is the defense. Since the onset of 2007 we had had 4 different coordinators (Bowles, Wade, Pasqualoni and Ryan) and none have been terribly successful outside of Wade in 2009. It is hard to argue that personnel isn't the issue when so many coaches have failed to get the job done including Wade who has gone onto success in Houston since he left here. I think the biggest problem has been a mediocre pass rush combined with bad coverage form LBs and Safeties. When we succeeded in 2007 and 2009 we had additional front 7 players applying pressure well outside of Ware (Ellis + Rat in 2007, Rat in 2009). We still under-produced because of deficient coverage but the results were decent those years. The last 3 years we have had the combination of average pressure and sub-standard coverage. How many passes are actually ever intercepted, deflected or challenged by this secondary - I'd argue we have been near the worst in the league in this area over the past 5 years. Switching out DB coaches and upgrading the CBs made very little difference as I still feel the biggest problem has been Safety played followed by the ILBs.

Now we have a 5th DC have a go at it and he comes with a lot of skins on the wall. It'll be interesting to see if he can turn it around by solidifying the weak spots on the roster or at least minimizing the damage the opposition can inflict upon us. I think the decision to go back to the 4-3 makes sense with so many 3-4 defenses around it has become harder to compete for the players to pull it off. Besides, we were never really taking advantage of the layer of complexity by alternating our blitzes - 90% of the time we sent Ware into the rush, Spencer was 50-50 and then the ILBs hardly blitzed at all. We weren't really confusing anybody outside of Bradie James. I do have some hope that Kiffen, Marinelli, Eberflus and Henderson will the right the ship but I'm not sure how long it'll last with all the front 4 around 30 years of age and no real depth behind them outside of Tyrone Crawford and Sean Lissemore. I only prey that we don't get the double whammy of losing a couple of players and having a bunch of dead money in the same season from these personnel choices. Marinelli has a long history of putting together good DL so I hope he can get this group to play up to potential and I hope he can convince Jerry not to break the bank on Spencer.

Next year should be an interesting one.

 

[Blue Eyed Devil]

What's held the Cowboys back always has and, I guess, always will be the offensive line.

Who could forget Romo yelling at his line in the 4th quarter against the Giants in 2007 as Tuck and Osi put him under siege? Who could forget the broken bones in 2008 and 2010 from missed blocks? Who could forget the dismal end to the 2009 seasons with an offensive line that couldn't block any of the Minnesota Vikings players? Who could forget the 1-dimensional Cowboys of 2011 and 2012 because there was absolutely zero run blocking.

It's always been the offensive line and what we get for fixes are Phil Costa at the league minimum and Bernie. Groundhog day is ready to repeat in 2013.

 

[jobberone]

Some very good responses.

I do think there has been a talent deficit when you look at the entire 53. This comes into play with injuries. It's part of the game but we don't have the backups to plug and play too often.

Turnovers are probably the biggest problem and relates to talent. Fix that and people will start to look a lot better and we'll get a few more wins.

I've thought about the holes and they come and go except for a few things. Safety and OL stick out and slow LBs come in a close second. That's not the entire extent but the bigger ones.

Fix the talent and the coaches will suddenly become saviors and geniuses.

 

[Rack]

The State of the Cowboys

Texas.

 

[jobberone]

Texas.

:laugh2:

Go work on your Mopar Mr Joker.

 

[TwoDeep3]

My belief is the numbers in the anchor post indicate this team has no competent back-ups, and drafts poorly.

While there are a few players such as Ware and Witten and Romo, for the most part there are not enough play makers on the team to pull up the rags we have at other positions.

I don't consider Ratliff in the riches group. I do consider Spears and most of the defensive lines over the last decade to be rags.

Dallas has continually fielded a poor offensive line, and even in the years when they seemed to have put it together, the penalties were a symptom of what is wrong. The wrong headed player.

I can list the riches for this team

Romo - aging
Dez
Murray - injury suspect
Smith
Witten - aging

Ware - aging
Lee - injury suspect
Carter
Claiborne
Carr

And even in this you have degrees of competence.

Note there is one player from the offensive line and one player from the defensive line.

The game is won in the trenches. Making space so the ball can move forward. Or building a wall that keeps the other team from moving the ball forward.

All the stats in the world don't change this fact. The lines dictate the success of a team.

Romo has to run - Dallas ultimately loses. Not Romo's fault. But this is a fact.

No running game, line is then in a hole and has to pass too much, Romo runs, team loses.

No pressure on the quarterback - team loses

No pressure means passing working, the draw then chews up the clock and gets the defense back on their heels - team loses.

This has been the problem of this team, and save for some easier schedules and Romo walking on water rarely, the team is in a spiral because of decisions made in drafting, free agency, and over-paying players.

I keep pointing this out. Makes me unpopular.

Tough crap. It's the truth.

 

[DFWJC]

I see a defense that has done worse than the offense 5 of the last 6 years...at least in scoring

But not to be a broken record, but fix the Oline sand the effect is universal

 

[Rack]

:laugh2:

Go work on your Mopar Mr Joker.

I had to sell it when I got stationed at Fort Hood.

No money and no space for it. I'm actually trying to sell the engine now and get a motorcycle (cheaper and I have room for it).


One day, hopefully I'll get to restore a different 68 charger.

 

[Venger]

In one word, this team is meh.

 

[kmp77]

In one word, this team is meh.

Meh = 8-8

Unfortunately, I think we'll continue with the 'meh' next season

 

[jobberone]

I had to sell it when I got stationed at Fort Hood.

No money and no space for it. I'm actually trying to sell the engine now and get a motorcycle (cheaper and I have room for it).


One day, hopefully I'll get to restore a different 68 charger.

Sorry to bring it up.

 

[jterrell]

The largest point to make here is the 2013 Dallas Cowboys has almost zero to do with anything previous to it. This is a parity league and teams ebb and flow quickly. 17 years without a title is a cry of whiners and menchildren. Who cares? Whether we had 16 in a row or lost 27 years straight the goal would be the same for 2013. Take these same limited resources via drafting and salary cap to out maneuver other teams.

If you are a football fan looking for title you need to follow the sports where they actually kick the ball. In that sport there are no salary caps to limit your accumulation of talent. American football isn't for sissies and whiners who nee do twin every year. Just doesn't work that way. NE is the "model" and they've won 3 Super Bowls TOTAL... ever.

 

[DABOYZ]

The largest point to make here is the 2013 Dallas Cowboys has almost zero to do with anything previous to it. This is a parity league and teams ebb and flow quickly. 17 years without a title is a cry of whiners and menchildren. Who cares? Whether we had 16 in a row or lost 27 years straight the goal would be the same for 2013. Take these same limited resources via drafting and salary cap to out maneuver other teams.

If you are a football fan looking for title you need to follow the sports where they actually kick the ball. In that sport there are no salary caps to limit your accumulation of talent. American football isn't for sissies and whiners who nee do twin every year. Just doesn't work that way. NE is the "model" and they've won 3 Super Bowls TOTAL... ever.

The new helmet rule change may suggest otherwise.

 

[TwoDeep3]

The largest point to make here is the 2013 Dallas Cowboys has almost zero to do with anything previous to it. This is a parity league and teams ebb and flow quickly. 17 years without a title is a cry of whiners and menchildren. Who cares? Whether we had 16 in a row or lost 27 years straight the goal would be the same for 2013. Take these same limited resources via drafting and salary cap to out maneuver other teams.

If you are a football fan looking for title you need to follow the sports where they actually kick the ball. In that sport there are no salary caps to limit your accumulation of talent. American football isn't for sissies and whiners who nee do twin every year. Just doesn't work that way. NE is the "model" and they've won 3 Super Bowls TOTAL... ever.

Well then, what was I thinking? Somehow I thought being a fan meant I can complain and point fingers and suggest I want to win. Little did I know I am whining if I want this team to get back to the top.

As far as parity, well hopes around the corner.

But one thing I do know for sure.

Like Landry said, "Stay close to the top and pop through every few years."

Looks like that is NE's practice. But then I suppose them only having three Championships but playing in 7 AFC Championship games in 12 years doesn't mean much.

Those slackers.

I like Dallas' chances if they are going deep into the play-offs rather than 8-8 and HOPE for parity and luck to find a crossroads.