Wulfman
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The Wulf Den: Draft Primer
When the offseason began and free agency was pending, I made a list of things that I believed the Cowboys absolutely had to do in order to be more competitive next season, both in the NFC East and the league as a whole. In no particular order, those items are listed, below.
* Re-work contracts to get under the cap (done)
* Extend Tony Romo (done)
* Sign a #2 RB that can start, if needed
* Decide whether or not to re-sign Spencer (done)
* Decide whether or not to re-sign Costa (done)
* Make a decision about Free/get a RT
* Decide on Dan Conner (done)
* Re-sign L. P. Ladouceur (done)
* Sign an OG via free agency or the draft
* Sign a #3 TE that can block
* Make decisions about where Kyle Wilber and Alex Albright will play in the 4-3 (done)
* Sign a Safety to add depth and compete for starting job in free agency or the draft
* Sign some depth at LB (done)
Ultimately, it’s not important whether or not you agree with what the Cowboys have done to meet a number of these items, whether it’s extending Romo, franchising Spencer, etc. The fact is that they are done, and they can’t be undone, so whining about it won’t help. As such, let’s move along.
Of the items mentioned, above, it appears the Cowboys still need to sign a back-up running back, a blocking tight end, a guard, a safety, and do something about the right tackle position. That’s pretty good, all things considered, and with the draft fast approaching, they have the potential of taking care of every one of these positions.
Are there other things they’d like? Other positions they’d like to address? Of course. But the fact is that they are in a position to patch all of the remaining holes on the roster, either this weekend, or in free agency in the days and weeks to follow. If they can do so, anything else they are able to do with undrafted rookies or in free agency is just icing on the cake.
So, with that in mind, let’s take a look at the draft, and who the Cowboys may be targeting.
Draft Strategy
Every year, it seems that an argument ensues among draftniks all over about whether teams should go best available player with each pick in the draft or fill their team needs even if a higher rated player on their board is available at the time. And once again, as I say every year, the answer is ‘yes’.
Now that may seem to be playing both sides of the argument, but it’s where NFL front offices actually are. By now, teams have their final draft boards already put together, and are running mock draft scenarios so they’ll be ready to respond to any circumstance when they’re on the clock. This includes potentially doing groundwork now to prepare the way for a potential draft day trade, as the Cowboys did last year to move up and take CB Morris Claiborne. But they are not simply going to turn in a card with the name of the highest rated player on their board with every pick. They simply won’t. No team does.
Instead, what they do is wait and evaluate what happens in the draft as it proceeds, and adjust their plans accordingly. If the player that they want, based on value and position, is available, they take him and don’t look back. If it looks like he might get taken before they pick, then maybe they make some calls to see what it will take to move up. But believe it when I say that they already know what they’re willing to give up for the player, and if the asking price exceeds what they’re willing to give, there will be no trade.
Likewise, when they get on the clock, if the phone rings, they will ALWAYS listen to the deal. Perhaps their player is available, but the offer is just too good to pass up. This is especially tempting if there is another player at the same position that you have rated nearly as good, meaning that you could potentially get the same talent at a lower point in the draft and acquire an additional pick as well. It can backfire, though, so teams have to be sure they’re willing to give up the player that they really want before they pull the trigger.
For example, in 2004, the Cowboys needed a legitimate starting RB. I had been pounding the table for Oregon State’s Steven Jackson for months leading up to the draft, but I thought there was little chance that the Cowboys would have a chance to take him because they were picking at #22. But when draft night came, there he was on the board when the Cowboys went on the clock, and I just knew his name was going to get announced next. You can perhaps appreciate my chagrin, then, when they announced a trade with Buffalo (who took QB J. P. Losman), meaning that the Cowboys had traded away the right to take Jackson and completely out of the first round. And while they did end up getting an additional 2nd and 5th rounder in 2004 and the Bills’ 1st rounder in 2005, you tell me: would you rather have had RB Julius Jones, TE Sean Ryan, and DE Marcus Spears or RB Steven Jackson? Maybe you’d do differently, but I’m still pounding the table for Jackson.
Where teams want to phone to ring is if the highest rated player on their board is NOT at a position of need, and it’s a significant drop-off to the next highest rated player at a position of need. If they can’t find a trade partner, they have a dilemma: do they take the highest rated player, even if it’s at a position of little or no need, or do they take the next highest rated player at a position of need, knowing they’re not getting good value for the pick? Every team will answer that in their own way, based on their individual team draft boards, and I don’t think anyone outside of their respective war rooms can accurately predict what those teams will do. And again, that decision has already been made before the draft ever starts.
So while I know that fans like to be able to predict what their favorite teams are going to do before the draft begins, the likelihood of actually knowing is remote, at best. There are simply too many variables in play to accurately do so. So the best we can do, in most cases, is look at who the team should be targeting in a particular round, based on value and team needs. That doesn’t mean it’s who they’ll take…but it’s as good of a way to anticipate as I know.
The Prospects
So who should the Cowboys be targeting when they go on the clock on Thursday night? On Friday night? On Saturday at noon? Based on my own research and rating system, along with what we know about the 30 players who came in to interview or for Dallas Day, here are some names to consider, assuming they stay put and don’t make any trades:
1st Round:
I was asked to come up with my best guess as to the top 18 players on the Cowboys’ board. In many ways, it’s a futile gesture, as they will undoubtedly have a name or two in that range that I don’t and vice versa. However, here’s the way it would shake out for me, if I were running the War Room:
1. OT Luke Joekel
2. OT Eric Fisher
3. DT Star Lotulelei
4. DT Sharrif Floyd
5. LB/DE Dion Jordan
6. G Jonathan Cooper
7. DE Ezekiel Ansah
8. OT Lane Johnson
9. G Chance Warmack
10. CB Dee Milliner
11. DT Sheldon Richardson
12. LB Barkevious Mingo
13. S Kenny Vacarro
14. WR Tavon Austin
15. TE Tyler Eifert
16. DT Sylvester Williams
17. OT D. J. Fluker
18. LB Jarvis Jones
Note that they are not in the order that I have them ranked on my final prospect list [http://cowboyszone.com/forums/dallascowboys.php?t=255254], as I believe the Cowboys will have tweaked the order somewhat based on scheme fit. I did not, however, adjust for team need, as that tends to unbalance your draft board and cause a lot of reach picks. Also, only 16 names on that list have first round grades for me, with the other two as “bubble” players that will likely be taken in the latter part of the first round.
When the Cowboys go on the clock at #18, one of these players WILL be available. If more than one is available—especially if they are not at positions of higher need—the Cowboys will be on the phone looking to trade back and acquire an additional pick or two in rounds 2-4.
2nd Round:
Players that could be on the board at pick #47, and would provide pretty good value, include:
RBs Eddie Lacy and Montee Ball; OTs Terron Armstead and Menelik Watson; OGs Justin Pugh, Larry Warford, and Kyle Long; FSs Eric Reid, Jonathan Cyprien, and D. J. Swearinger; DEs Alex Okafor and Margus Hunt; WR Robert Woods; and DTs Kawann Short and John Jenkins.
3rd Round:
Players that could be on the board at pick #80, and would provide pretty good value, include:
RBs Jonathan Franklin and Le’Veon Bell; TEs Travis Kelce and Vance McDonald; Cs Barrett Jones, Travis Frederick, and Brian Schwenke; DTs Bennie Logan and Brandon Williams; OLB Jamie Collins or Corey Lemonier; G Brian Winters; FS Phillip Thomas; WRs Stedman Bailey and Markus Wheaton; and DE Cornelius Washington.
4th Round:
Players that could be on the board at pick #114, and would provide pretty good value, include:
RBs Stepfan Taylor and Joseph Randle; WRs Ryan Swope, Marquise Goodwin, and Chris Harper; OTs Brennan Williams, David Bakhtiari and Oday Aboushi; DEs William Gholston, Brandon Jenkins, and John Simon; DT Akeem Spence; OLB Zavier Gooden; and SS J. J. Wilcox.
5th Round:
Players that could be on the board at pick #151, and would provide pretty good value, include:
RBs Mike Gillislee and Knile Davis; TEs Dion Sims and Michael Williams; WRs Josh Boyce, Cobi Hamilton, and Tavarres King; OTs Chris Faulk and Jordan Mills; OGs Hugh Thornton and Alvin Bailey; Cs David Quessenberry and Khaled Holmes; DTs Montori Hughes and Jordan Hill; OLBs Jelani Jenkins and DeVonte Holloman; DE Devin Taylor, Michael Buchanon, and Malliciah Goodman; FS T. J. McDonald; and SS Earl Wolff.
6th Round:
Players that could be on the board at pick #185, and would provide pretty good value, include:
RBs Stefphon Jefferson, Jawan Jamison, and Kerwynn Williams; FB Kyle Juszczyk; TEs Nick Kasa and Levine Toilolo; WRs Denard Robinson, Ace Sanders, Aaron Melette, and Corey Fuller; Cs T. J. Johnson and P. J. Lonergan; Gs Earl Watford, Edward Kugbila, and Lane Taylor; OLBs Lerentee McCray, Michael Mauti, and Keith Pough; Des Joe Kruger and David Bass; DTs Everett Dawkins, Nicholas Williams, and Josh Boyd; and FS Josh Evans.
Of course, some of the players listed will slide a round or more lower than I have them ranked, and others will be taken a round or two earlier than I have indicated. As I mentioned earlier, this is a direct result of the unique information and grades the teams put on players as they compile their boards, and why there are usually a few picks that shock everyone EXCEPT the team making the pick.
Note that I did not list any ILBs, QBs, or CBs. That is not to say that the Cowboys don’t have those positions ranked, or that they won’t take one of them. Rather, I chose to pull out those positions that are of greatest need, in my opinion, to give everyone an idea of just who might be available as the draft goes along. I will NOT be surprised to see at least one of these three positions addressed in the draft, and I think CB is the most likely of the three.
The Rest of the Story
So here we are on the eve of the draft.
Will the Cowboys target someone and trade up?
Doubtful, but it’s hard to say for sure. You never know when someone like St. Louis is going to call and tell you that you can move up to #6 and take the second highest-rated player on your board.
Will the Cowboys trade down?
More likely than trading up, in my opinion, simply because of the depth of the draft and the quality you can find in rounds 2-4. But you’ve got to have someone willing to move up and surrender those picks, and that might be hard to find this year aside from a couple of teams like San Francisco, Miami, and Minnesota. As a Cowboy fan, I’d love to get a bidding war going between San Fran and Minnesota over Tavon Austin if he’s still on the board at #18. I personally think he’ll go no later than #16 to St. Louis. But a good duel between the 49ers and the Vikings might mean a very good trade opportunity for the Cowboys.
One thing I will say, and I don’t believe there’s room for much doubt at this point: if head Coach Jason Garrett doesn’t sign off on a player as the “right kind of guy”, he’s not getting drafted no matter what Owner and GM Jerry Jones may want. JJ has given as much control in the draft room to Garrett as he has to any coach that’s been in Dallas since Jimmy Johnson, and that includes Bill Parcells. You are going to see “Garrett Guys” get drafted, and for Cowboys’ fans, that’s a good thing.
So tighten your cinch straps and hold those reins tight. It’s going to be a heckuva ride!
