Wulfman
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The Wulf Den: Season Preview
September 10, 2009
As I sat down to write this article, I had difficulty focusing on the upcoming game and the schedule as a whole because everywhere I turned, I was hearing the same stupid discussions about things that are either trivial or have been hashed over so many times that they no longer bear discussing. So before I could really look ahead, I decided to address—hopefully for the LAST time—a few issues (in no particular order) that I’m tired of hearing and reading about.
* Can WR Roy Williams step up and replace the production left by the departure of “The Mouth That Roared”?
To me, this is a dumb question. No receiver in the NFL could match the numbers put up by #81 over the last three years with the Cowboys, especially if you’re talking about touchdowns. Not WR Steve Smith in Carolina, not Brandon Marshall in Denver, not Andre Johnson in Houston, or anyone else. So expecting Roy Williams to do so is ridiculous.
The real question is can he be a legitimate #1 receiver. To me the answer is obvious—of course he can. He was the #1 receiver in Detroit for years, and consistently put up good numbers despite having poor QBs throwing to him for the most part, as well as having very few weapons surrounding him. There’s no reason to think he can’t do that job again, even if the TD production and stats don’t equal what his predecessor did.
As for the production gap, I believe that will be made up by multiple people doing a little more than they did before, rather than one person doing it alone. Remember that WR Sam Hurd missed most of the season last year with an injury, TE Martellus Bennett will be used more this year, and RB Felix Jones went out in week 6. Add in the fact that WR Patrick Crayton has shown that he can be a capable #2 receiver in the past (50 receptions in 2007), and there’s no reason to think the production can’t be just as good this year—or better—than last year.
To break that down further, consider the following projected receptions per game, based on what players have done previously when in the positions they will be filling this season (Crayton as the #2, Felix in the backfield, Hurd getting a few snaps each game, etc.):
TE Jason Witten – 6 receptions per game
WR Roy Williams – 3-4 receptions per game
WR Patrick Crayton – 3-4 receptions per game
WR Sam Hurd – 1-2 receptions per game
WR Miles Austin – 1-2 receptions per game
TE Martellus Bennett – 2-3 receptions per game
RB Marion Barber – 2-3 receptions per game
RB Felix Jones – 2-3 receptions per game
These are all reasonable expectations, based on previous production for these guys. This would mean that QB Tony Romo would complete 20-27 passes per game, or an average of 24 or so. When you consider that he attempted 34.6 passes per game last season in the 13 games he played, this would be a completion percentage of between 65-70%, which I think we’d all take. It would also mean that he would throw for 238-325 yards per game and for 25 TDs over the course of the season. And I did NOT include any receptions or TDs that Felix Jones might score as a receiver, since he really didn’t have any previous stats to base them on. But when you consider that he only averaged 5 yards per reception on his two catches last year, and then look at what he did with that screen pass in the preseason, I think it’s easy to see how the numbers could be even higher.
I’m sorry folks. But looking at the hard numbers, and basing them solely on previous production, there is NO reason to be worried about a lack of production simply because one guy isn’t on the roster anymore. Just go into the season expecting the production to be spread around instead of all attached to one name, and you won’t be disappointed.
* Why is OL Cory Procter still on this team?
This is a question that everyone outside of Procter’s family has asked…and I’m not too sure that some of them haven’t asked it. But enough is enough already. Whether we like it or not, he’s on the team—at least for the time being. That either means that the coaching staff sees something we don’t or that they are more comfortable with him in the back-up center position right now than anyone else. Remember, this is only the roster for Sunday’s game against Tampa Bay, not necessarily for the whole season. But for good or ill, that’s simply the way it is, and whining about it won’t help.
Of course, since he’s on the roster right now, they’re guaranteeing his $1.5 mil salary for the season. That would be an expensive pill to swallow if they let him go now. But don’t think that they won’t do so if OL Duke Preston shows he’s a better option at some point and/or a player becomes available that will be more help for the team, regardless of position.
* The depth on this team is a big problem.
Well, yes and no. The depth at some positions is troublesome, while at others, it’s as good as or better than any other team in the league. Is anyone worried about the depth at RB, for example? Sure it would hurt if Jones went down again, since he’s so explosive. But I’m not at all worried about the depth here. The same could be said for QB and TE.
Now multiple injuries at any position are not going to be good. But then, that’s the same all over. No team in the league is going to be as good if they are down to their third string guy at a position, or are playing three or more back-ups at the same time. And in the salary cap era, you simply can’t have starting-caliber players at every back-up position. It just can’t be done. The best you can do is prepare guys to play a role and fill in as best they can, operating under the assumption that the remaining starters will elevate their games, as needed.
So yes, depth would be a major problem if we lose more than one starter at offensive linemen for an extended period of time. The same could be said for LB or WR or CB. But then, any team could list positions of concern. All things being equal, this team’s depth across the board is as good as just about any team in the league. The real question about depth will only be answered as injuries occur during the season, and as those who are currently injured are able to return to the practice field.
* Who is going to start at CB opposite Terence Newman?
This has finally been answered…sort of…by Head Coach Wade Phillips and his pronouncement that CBs Mike Jenkins and Orlando Scandrick will share the starting job. Some have applauded this as a way of trying to get the best out of both players as we enter the season. Others have listed it as one more decision that Phillips was hesitant or afraid to make. I find that people who already liked Wade like the decision, and those who disliked Wade see it as one more reason to get rid of him. But all of this is just an excuse to chatter, because the real answer to the question is that IT JUST DOESN’T MATTER!
There are so many teams that consistently run 3-receiver sets in the NFL today that both Scandrick and Jenkins are going to be on the field more often than not. In fact, don’t be surprised if the Cowboys actually start some games on defense with both in the game, based on what opposing offenses do.
The only reason this question is at all relevant is that, several years from now, they will both become unrestricted free agents, and having “starter” next to your name usually translates into a bigger payday. But that has NO bearing whatsoever for the success of the defensive backfield this season, and it seems that the answer is really only important as a fallback position for the reporters who need something to write or blog about and can’t find anything better.
* This draft class really stinks.
Exactly what are we basing this on? How many are ready to step in and start on week 1? How many made the roster? How many are ready to be serious contributors this season? How many are injured? Really, what you’re basing your assessment on determines whether or not this statement is true.
When the Cowboys went into the draft this year, many people—myself included—expected them to either package picks to move up or to trade picks for additional ones next year. Instead, they decided to maneuver around and make twelve picks this year, bringing in a lot of young players in the hopes of not only bolstering their special teams units, but providing better competition for depth at a multitude of positions. At that point, if you were expecting all of them to make the roster, you were deluding yourselves. Even with the release of veterans like LB Greg Ellis, S Roy Williams, and others, this team simply had too much talent for all of those guys to make the roster—even if they hit on every pick, which isn’t likely.
As it stands, 25% (three) of those picks are either on injured reserve (LBs Brandon Williams and Stephen Hodge) or the physically unable to perform list, meaning, at best, we’ll see one of them (OT Robert Brewster – torn pectoral muscle) sometime around midseason…if we see him at all. Two more (LB Jason Williams and S Michael Hamlin) are likely going to be unable to contribute until after the bye week, each having suffered injuries that will keep them out an additional 3-5 weeks.
That leaves seven picks that could have potentially made the roster and contributed in some way. Of those seven, three were released when the Cowboys reduced their roster to 53. One of them, DB DeAngelo Smith, was claimed by another team, and the other two, CB Mike Mickens and WR Manuel Johnson, were signed to the Cowboys practice squad. Of the remaining four, one was expected to sit and learn this season anyway (QB Stephen McGee) and the other three (LB Victor Butler, K David Buehler, and TE John Phillips) are expected to make significant contributions this year. And that says nothing about undrafted gem WR Kevin Ogletree, whom the Cowboys agreed to bring to Dallas before the seventh round of the draft was even completed.
Considering that the Cowboys really only lost one guy from their draft—and another team thought enough of him to sign him to their roster—and that fully half of them could make contributions this year, and I think they did fairly well. Of course, as with all draft talks, a real assessment CANNOT be made until two or three years down the road. Then we’ll really know what the Cowboys have to show for the 2009 draft.
Season Predictions
I always go into the season having given my season predictions for the league, and I wasn’t about to do any different this year. As always, I base my season picks on the assumption that there will not be significant injuries, either to any team the Cowboys play or on the Cowboys’ roster. While this rarely happens in practice, it is the only way I see to effectively anticipate what might occur during the regular season.
With a team that has as much talent as the Cowboys, I don’t believe there is any reason to believe they should lose a home game. Certainly there are teams that I would expect to beat the Cowboys if they were playing in their own home stadiums. But more than ever this year, with the new stadium, I expect the “home field advantage” to be the tie-breaker against good teams. Also, I always anticipate going .500 against the teams in the NFC East, with us winning on our home field and them winning on theirs. It usually doesn’t turn out that way for each team, with us losing both games to one team and winning both against the other or some other combination. But even when the teams have a huge disparity in talent, these teams always play each other tough, and I go into it expecting .500 every season.
That said, I look at the schedule and focus on what quality teams we play on the road. We have to play at Green Bay, which is a quality team, as well as at New Orleans late in the season. While we certainly have the ability to win both of those games, I make decisions based on the quality of the team and the location of the game. So if we were facing either of those teams at home, I’d give the Cowboys the nod. As it is, I count those as losses, and add them to the three games against their NFC opponents to arrive at a season record of 11-5. It’s more likely that we lose a game I expect us to win, and win a game I think we should lose, but as it stands, that’s the way I’m calling it.
As for the rest of the league, it breaks down this way:
NFC East
Dallas (11-5) – Division Winner and Bye Week
NY Giants (10-6) – Wild Card
Philadelphia (9-7)
Washington (8-8)
NFC North
Green Bay (11-5) – Division Winner and Bye Week
Minnesota (11-5) – Wild Card
Chicago (8-8)
Detroit (2-14)
NFC South
Atlanta (10-6) – Division Winner
Carolina (8-8)
New Orleans (8-8)
Tampa Bay (7-9)
NFC West
Arizona (9-7) – Division Winner
Seattle (8-8)
San Francisco (6-10)
St. Louis (5-11)
AFC East
New England (12-4) – Division Winner and Bye Week
Miami (7-9)
NY Jets (6-10)
Buffalo (5-11)
AFC North
Pittsburgh (14-2) – Division Winner and Bye Week
Baltimore (10-6) – Wild Card
Cincinnati (7-9)
Cleveland (3-13)
AFC South
Indianapolis (11-5) – Division Winner
Tennessee (10-6) – Wild Card
Jacksonville (8-8)
Houston (7-9)
AFC West
San Diego (11-5) – Division Winner
Oakland (5-11)
Denver (4-12)
Kansas City (4-12)
In the wild card round Atlanta defeats Minnesota and Arizona knocks off the Giants in the NFC, while Indianapolis beats the Titans and San Diego defeats the Ravens.
In the divisional round, Green Bay defeats Arizona and Dallas eliminates the Falcons in the NFC, while Pittsburgh defeats the Chargers and the Patriots defeat the Colts in Foxborough.
In the championship games, Green Bay defeats Dallas in a close game on the “frozen tundra of Lambeau Field” while Pittsburgh eliminates Tom Brady and the Pats.
And in the Super Bowl, the Steelers go back-to-back in championships for the third time in franchise history, defeating the Packers in a hard fought game.
So there you have it. Remember, I base the decisions on where they’re played and under the expectation that everyone is healthy for both teams. This doesn’t happen throughout the season, of course, but it’s the only fair way I’ve found to evaluate the teams. The real irony here is that it could come down to the last week, Eagles @ Cowboys, to not only determine the division winner, but who goes to the playoffs. The way I have the games falling, if Philly wins that game instead of Dallas, then the Giants win the division, the Eagles win the wild card position, and the Cowboys miss the playoffs...again. Talk about some deja vu!
That's the way I'm calling it. If you don’t agree, you’re entitled to your opinion…so go write your own article.
Closing Thoughts
As for this week in Tampa Bay, I think the Cowboys, barring injury, are better in every facet of the game. The Buccaneers have questions at QB, are trying to adapt to a late change in their offensive coaching staff, and are transitioning to a different defensive coordinator after years of Monte Kiffen’s leadership. The Cowboys should be able to move the ball effectively and prevent a lot of huge plays.
The final score: Dallas 27, Tampa Bay 13.
Wulfman
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