There is Something Fishy About All These Incredible 40 Times...

[CaptainAmerica]

...call me skeptical, but I've followed the draft for a while and there has NEVER been this many guys who have tested out this fast at so many positions. A guy running 4.45 is commonplace now, at almost any position.


I'm not saying the numbers are "juiced" or they aren't accurate, but I am saying that imo, it's a combination of the newer track at Indy being faster than the old surface and, more importantly all these guys now working with trainers to the point that they come in specifically trained to run a 40 like a sprinter in the Olympics. By that I mean they work on the start, their form, etc.

It tells me that these incredible 40 times, (more now than ever), aren't a true indication of the actual speed many of these guys play at when they put on the pads.

Comments?

 

[Muhast]

add .15-.20 on all the times you hear.

Thats the standard reaction different in electronic and handheld.

that doesnt mean all the guys are blazers, it means all these coaches fingers arent that quick

 

[SkinsHokieFan]

Use it to compare players to each other. Don't look at the times themselves but compare Chad Jackson to another WR. Or D'Brickshaw Fergusan to another lineman

That is how the 40 times should be used

 

[Rush 2112]

To me it's the big guys closing the gap on the little guys.

DL and LB's closing the gap on the WR's.

I've thought the DL and LB times have been far more impressive than the WR's.

Who was scorching the track on O besides Chad Jackson and McNeal?

 

[NorTex]

Its all about the specialized training that these guys get nowadays.

 

[aznhalf]

I'm not saying the numbers are "juiced" or they aren't accurate, but I am saying that imo, it's a combination of the newer track at Indy being faster than the old surface and, more importantly all these guys now working with trainers to the point that they come in specifically trained to run a 40 like a sprinter in the Olympics. By that I mean they work on the start, their form, etc.

You know I was having the exact same thought today, glad you took the time to post.

I've seen a couple blogs and articles allude to a faster surface at Indy which I believe is the biggest factor. I think a faster surface really only affects the guys running sub 4.6 who are lighter on their feet. Its hard to gauge these players with so many unknowns!!

 

[ddh33]

If I were an agent, I would tell all of my guys to run. And if I were a player, I wouldn't need to be told. Those guys should get out there...

 

[Muhast]

One truth of the combine is that bench, and wonderlic wont drop a skill guy quicker than a bad 40 time.

Each year we hear cb's, rbs, or Wr's fall... no better yet PLUMMET b/c of a bad 40 time. A 4.6 40 has become a thing of the past for most guys. Matt Jones wasnt even a 3rd or 4th rnd prospect untill he ran that 4.3 40 to go along with being 6'5. If he ran a 4.5 or 4.6 he wouldnt have been a first day pick, yet he runs a 4.3 and goes in the middle/late of the first

 

[PrimeTime22]

The times are unusually fast because of the track, and the official times are electronic. All scouts and GMs take fast tracks into consideration, and the times are really just used for comparison purposes.

I'm sure no one is fooled by the times.

 

[Ken]

I just think it is funny when guys are penalized for obviously not having a clue how to get a good start.

Not to mention to funky, completely wrong, start they are forced to use.


The start can make or break a lot of these guys, and clearly some are getting bad start and adding .2 to their times. In football, your not starting from that position. Most times, your catching a ball in stride or getting a handoff or whatever in stride. To me, they should be taking the times from 10 yards to 40. That would give you the true barometer of how fast these guys are.

 

[Dough Boy]

...call me skeptical, but I've followed the draft for a while and there has NEVER been this many guys who have tested out this fast at so many positions. A guy running 4.45 is commonplace now, at almost any position.


I'm not saying the numbers are "juiced" or they aren't accurate, but I am saying that imo, it's a combination of the newer track at Indy being faster than the old surface and, more importantly all these guys now working with trainers to the point that they come in specifically trained to run a 40 like a sprinter in the Olympics. By that I mean they work on the start, their form, etc.

It tells me that these incredible 40 times, (more now than ever), aren't a true indication of the actual speed many of these guys play at when they put on the pads.

Comments?

Great post. I agree 100%. I don't think they are juiced. I think it is the isolated training these guys now get prior to the combine. If you listen to the players on the NFL Network, they give a great deal of insight. They now practice the 40, the way sprinters have practiced for years. They run splits. They work on the start. Staying low and exploding. They work on the first 10 yards. Then they work on the first 20 yards. The know exactly when to rise their heads and they know when to "kick".

With all that being said, I think the NFL has drove players to this point. How big has the 40 become. Your draft stock can rise or fall on your 40 time. Ask T. Suggs. Remember him coming out of ASU. He ran the slow 40 and a top 5 pick slipped down the Ravens at 10. Before the draft, no one thought he would fall past us. The guy was coming of a 24 sack season, with (2) 10 sack seasons prior to that. He had production. He fell b/c of the 4.8 forty that he ran. The guy lost a lot of money on that fall.

Conversely, look at Matt Jones last year. He played QB his whole life. He is projected to a new position and the Jags spend a first on him. Why... He ran a 4.3 forty. He went to one of those pre-draft workout camps and learned how to trim valuable tenth of seconds off his time.

In my opinion, the NFL has forced the player to concentrate on the 40. Why, it’s worth money. The higher I'm drafted the more I make up front of signing bonus because of the slotting the NFL uses for rookie contracts.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Yep, most 40 times are baloney. And you definitely can't compare times run now to times run in years past. Same with all the other tests like the vertical... The training for these specific "events" has become so specialized and sophisticated now, and athletes in years past didn't have access to the same training.

Like CA says, if these were all apples-to-apples comparisons, players from only a couple of years ago wouldn't even be able to keep up with this year's crop. Yet you can see on the field that that isn't the case.

But at least the combine gives you some kind of standardized conditions... Pro Day times are at least 99.9% B.S. You have stories of 1% downhill grades, 39-yard tracks, all kinds of crazy stuff as these schools build tracks specifically designed to make their players look good. It's a good recruiting tool.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Great post. I agree 100%. I don't think they are juiced. I think it is the isolated training these guys now get prior to the combine. If you listen to the players on the NFL Network, they give a great deal of insight. They now practice the 40, the way sprinters have practiced for years. They run splits. They work on the start. Staying low and exploding. They work on the first 10 yards. Then they work on the first 20 yards. The know exactly when to rise their heads and they know when to "kick".

With all that being said, I think the NFL has drove players to this point. How big has the 40 become. Your draft stock can rise or fall on your 40 time. Ask T. Suggs. Remember him coming out of ASU. He ran the slow 40 and a top 5 pick slipped down the Ravens at 10. Before the draft, no one thought he would fall past us. The guy was coming of a 24 sack season, with (2) 10 sack seasons prior to that. He had production. He fell b/c of the 4.8 forty that he ran. The guy lost a lot of money on that fall.

Conversely, look at Matt Jones last year. He played QB his whole life. He is projected to a new position and the Jags spend a first on him. Why... He ran a 4.3 forty. He went to one of those pre-draft workout camps and learned how to trim valuable tenth of seconds off his time.

In my opinion, the NFL has forced the player to concentrate on the 40. Why, it’s worth money. The higher I'm drafted the more I make up front of signing bonus because of the slotting the NFL uses for rookie contracts.

I agree the NFL teams have brought this about. That was really the point of my original post. Players' stock rise and fall DRAMATICALLY based on a 40 time, which everyone should realize is not necessarily a true indicator of football speed or the ability to play at the NFL level.

The training techniques they use now to run the 40 can, in actuality, give a false impression of how fast, (or slow, depending on your viewpoint), the player actually is.

 

[nathanlt]

Here's a website that tests your reaction time.... Pretty cool.

http://www.getyourwebsitehere.com/jswb/rttest01.html

The fastest reaction times add roughly .2 to the 40 time.

For handheld times, it might seem that it wouldn't make a difference, since the reaction would be delayed .2 for the start and .2 for the finish.

However, the human eye can predict motion and lead the stop of the stopwatch to coincide with exactly crossing the finish line. I think it's why we can throw a football to lead a reciever with innate skill and sense of timing. This all comes into play for the finish, but is of no use in the start. By the time the player has begun his motion, all stopwatches are already .2 seconds behind.

 

[Dough Boy]

If I were an agent, I would tell all of my guys to run. And if I were a player, I wouldn't need to be told. Those guys should get out there...

Why would you do that? You have to realize we are fans, but for the agent its business. He/She is trying to accent all the great qualities and hide the flaws without being deceitful. If I had a slow client, that was very productive in college, no way I would let him run at the combine. To do so, would be negligent on the agents part.

 

[Dough Boy]

I agree the NFL teams have brought this about. That was really the point of my original post. Players' stock rise and fall DRAMATICALLY based on a 40 time, which everyone should realize is not necessarily a true indicator of football speed or the ability to play at the NFL level.

The training techniques they use now to run the 40 can, in actuality, give a false impression of how fast, (or slow, depending on your viewpoint), the player actually is.

I think you are right. These players will not use the same techique on the field. The best indication of playing speed, is game flim and watching the guy live go against competition.

 

[Everlastingxxx]

Here's a website that tests your reaction time.... Pretty cool.

http://www.getyourwebsitehere.com/jswb/rttest01.html

The fastest reaction times add roughly .2 to the 40 time.

For handheld times, it might seem that it wouldn't make a difference, since the reaction would be delayed .2 for the start and .2 for the finish.

However, the human eye can predict motion and lead the stop of the stopwatch to coincide with exactly crossing the finish line. I think it's why we can throw a football to lead a reciever with innate skill and sense of timing. This all comes into play for the finish, but is of no use in the start. By the time the player has begun his motion, all stopwatches are already .2 seconds behind.

That was cool, my average was .241

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Here's a website that tests your reaction time.... Pretty cool.

http://www.getyourwebsitehere.com/jswb/rttest01.html

The fastest reaction times add roughly .2 to the 40 time.

For handheld times, it might seem that it wouldn't make a difference, since the reaction would be delayed .2 for the start and .2 for the finish.

However, the human eye can predict motion and lead the stop of the stopwatch to coincide with exactly crossing the finish line. I think it's why we can throw a football to lead a reciever with innate skill and sense of timing. This all comes into play for the finish, but is of no use in the start. By the time the player has begun his motion, all stopwatches are already .2 seconds behind.

It's funny you mention this. A crazy idea came to me during the combine this past Sunday.

While I was watching the NFL Network coverage, I actually took off my wristwatch and tried to time the players as they ran the 40. Due to the cameral angles, it was difficult, at times, to know exactly when to start the time or when the player actually hit the tape.

I tried it several times and found that I was almost always .2 seconds slower or faster than the announced time.

There was only one run where I hit it. The Tennessee WR ran his first 40 and I matched the offcial time at 4.49.

I know some of you may think I'm definitely a "draftnik", but it actually was fun and interesting to see how my stopwatch matched the official times.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I think you are right. These players will not use the same techique on the field. The best indication of playing speed, is game flim and watching the guy live go against competition.

Absolutely!!

 

[nathanlt]

That was cool, my average was .241

Oh yeah... well, MY average was a .2089 :strongarm


:nana: