CFZ This indicator accurately predicts teams that have a chance to win a SB

[jazzcat22]

So basically Bob is saying the Eagles will win the Super Bowl this year.

This guy, man.

Pretty sure you have that wrong.

 

[Bobhaze]

Good post! I agree that PD gives us an edge, but might the speculative and strangely well timed flags of interference, holding, and unnecessary roughness negate that edge?

Penalties have never stopped a great team.

Here’s what I mean-
The top 5 NFL playoff games with the most penalties called against one team, the most penalized teams won 4/5. Cowboys were in two of those games. Here they are:

• LARaiders vs Denver Jan, 1994- Oakland had 17 penalties and won anyway 42-24.
• Cowboys vs SF, Jan, 2022- Cowboys had 14 penalties and lost 23-16.
• Cowboys vs Filly, Jan, 2010- Cowboys had 14 penalties and won 34-14
• Oakland vs Tenn, AFC championship 20003, 14 penalties, won 41-24.
• SF vs NYG, Jan, 1982, 14 penalties, won anyway 38-24.

Great teams overcome penalties.

 

[ESisback]

Penalties have never stopped a great team.

Here’s what I mean-
The top 5 NFL playoff games with the most penalties called against one team, the most penalized teams won 4/5. Cowboys were in two of those games. Here they are:

• LARaiders vs Denver Jan, 1994- Oakland had 17 penalties and won anyway 42-24.
• Cowboys vs SF, Jan, 2022- Cowboys had 14 penalties and lost 23-16.
• Cowboys vs Filly, Jan, 2010- Cowboys had 14 penalties and won 34-14
• Oakland vs Tenn, AFC championship 20003, 14 penalties, won 41-24.
• SF vs NYG, Jan, 1982, 14 penalties, won anyway 38-24.

Great teams overcome penalties.

While I agree in large part, my old caveat remains: maybe the sheer number of penalties doesn’t matter as much as the TIMING of the flag. A game winning stop on defense? Wait! A questionable interference or roughing penalty gives the opposition a “first and goal! All they need is 2 points!” A 50 yard bomb by the Cowboys to win? No sir! A late flag for holding! 3rd and 20! Then, the inevitable “Dallas only got two penalties, you tinfoil hat!”

 

[Bobhaze]

While I agree in large part, my old caveat remains: maybe the sheer number of penalties doesn’t matter as much as the TIMING of the flag. A game winning stop on defense? Wait! A questionable interference or roughing penalty gives the opposition a “first and goal! All they need is 2 points!” A 50 yard bomb by the Cowboys to win? No sir! A late flag for holding! 3rd and 20! Then, the inevitable “Dallas only got two penalties, you tinfoil hat!”

I understand ES…but that happens to everyone. Not just the Cowboys.

 

[ESisback]

I understand ES…but that happens to everyone. Not just the Cowboys.

Of course! Happens to everyone. But is there statistical evidence that these aren’t more frequent against Dallas? I’ve watched SO MANY great plays, said to my buddies, “wait for the flag”, and BOOM! There it is!

 

[Zman5]

For anyone interested, we were 2nd in PD and 1st in TO differential last year.

 

[ESisback]

For anyone interested, we were 2nd in PD and 1st in TO differential last year.

True. Could it mean we’re closer to actually benefitting from that stat? You know, the more you lose/win, the closer you come to win/lose. Or could it mean there are other things afoot?

 

[Whyjerry]

I am a big believer in PD. It’s not perfect but if the differential is consistent and not skewed with a couple big numbers it is a very good indicator. It’s really good across sports actually.

It’s a rare year in Dallas with a defense that can flat out win games. The Rams win comes to mind. If the offense can consistently get leads and force opponents to have to throw Dallas will be a very tough out this season. Plus I think Sam Williams is about to go boom.

 

[Zman5]

True. Could it mean we’re closer to actually benefitting from that stat? You know, the more you lose/win, the closer you come to win/lose. Or could it mean there are other things afoot?

To me, it meant we sucked major ballz last year in the playoffs. Based on these stats, we should have at least won a game in the playoffs.

 

[ESisback]

To me, it meant we sucked major ballz last year in the playoffs. Based on these stats, we should have at least won a game in the playoffs.

Yeah, last year sucked. This year seems better. Time to move on.

 

[Runwildboys]

It's been talked about numerous times. You were just too busy schooling people.

I think you mean "scolding".

 

[Dakota]

Another very accurate predictive stat is the # of wins in February.

 

[Dakota]

Half of that point differential is from yesterday. So, it’s a bit skewed.

Sad but true. On the other hand, maybe last game is a sign of things to come.

 

[Doomsday101]

Only indicator I know of is getting to NFC Championship game and winning it. When that has happened, that team goes to the SB 100% of the time

 

[conner01]

POINT DIFFERENTIAL is one of the most accurate ways to determine teams that have a legitimate shot to win a Super Bowl. In fact in the last 9 seasons, 8 SB winners finished in the top 6 in point differential stats.

Here’s what I mean- 8 of the last 9 winners since 2013 all were in the top 6 in point differential:

• 2021- SB champ-Rams finished 6th in point differential.
• 2020 SB champ- Bucs finished 4th in PD.
• 2019 SB champ- the chiefs finished 4th in PD.
• 2018 SB champ- the Patriots finished 5th in PD.
• 2017 SB champ- the eaglets finished 1st in PD.
• 2016 SB champ- the Patriots finished 1st in PD.
• 2015 SB champ- the Broncos finished 10th in PD (the outlier of all these champs)
• 2014- SB champ: the Patriots finished 1st in PD.
  
• 2013 SB champ- the Seahawks finished 2nd in PD.

Here are the current TOP 6 in Point Differential through 10 games:

1. Buffalo- +107
2. Dallas- +84
3. Filly- +80
4. Kansas City- +67
5. Cincy- +50
6. Baltimore- +49

Recent history is clear- The Cowboys are currently among the teams with the best shot to win a SB. Lots of football left to play, but we are in a good position.

So your saying we are winning the Super Bowl lol
The only draw back is one team in the top six wins so five don’t
But it is a very important stat
It means you are scoring points and keeping teams from scoring points
Pretty good recipe for success

 

[conner01]

Only indicator I know of is getting to NFC Championship game and winning it. When that has happened, that team goes to the SB 100% of the time

actually just get in the playoffs, even as a wild card and win the last game you play. Guaranteed Super Bowl victory lol

 

[zeroburrito]

same exact thing was posted last year. all this means is the top 5 or 6 teams by record(more wins usually means higher diff) can win a superbowl...that is obvious. the cowboys were way up there and lost the first game.

and as others have said. point diff is skewed by 1 or 2 games a season. as long as you are about +40 with a good record it's all the same.