CFZ This indicator accurately predicts teams that have a chance to win a SB

[Bobhaze]

Half of that point differential is from yesterday. So, it’s a bit skewed.

That’s a fair point.

Bob, I remember this thread from last year. Dallas was positioned similarly. Then the San Francisco game happened.

Right. This team still needs to be a lot more consistent in my book to be a serious contender. The teams that gets HOT in mid-late Nov AND has a top 6 PD are the ones winning SBs. Too early to know if we are that team yet.

Bob, you talking SB ?

Not necessarily yet. There are still 7 games- lots of football left. Consider this a “progress report”, lol.

 

[john van brocklin]

That’s a fair point.







Right. This team still needs to be a lot more consistent in my book to be a serious contender. The teams that gets HOT in mid-late Nov AND has a top 6 PD are the ones winning SBs. Too early to know if we are that team yet.







Not necessarily yet. There are still 7 games- lots of football left. Consider this a “progress report”, lol.

Ok

 

[Bobhaze]

I would say there is hope...
If they play like this the rest of the way especially Dak, we will be hard to beat.

It’s one game. Consistency is the habit of champions. We need to start showing that.

 

[Pass2Run]

POINT DIFFERENTIAL is one of the most accurate ways to determine teams that have a legitimate shot to win a Super Bowl. In fact in the last 9 seasons, 8 SB winners finished in the top 6 in point differential stats.

Here’s what I mean- 8 of the last 9 winners since 2013 all were in the top 6 in point differential:

• 2021- SB champ-Rams finished 6th in point differential.
• 2020 SB champ- Bucs finished 4th in PD.
• 2019 SB champ- the chiefs finished 4th in PD.
• 2018 SB champ- the Patriots finished 5th in PD.
• 2017 SB champ- the eaglets finished 1st in PD.
• 2016 SB champ- the Patriots finished 1st in PD.
• 2015 SB champ- the Broncos finished 10th in PD (the outlier of all these champs)
• 2014- SB champ: the Patriots finished 1st in PD.
  
• 2013 SB champ- the Seahawks finished 2nd in PD.

Here are the current TOP 6 in Point Differential through 10 games:

1. Buffalo- +107
2. Dallas- +84
3. Filly- +80
4. Kansas City- +67
5. Cincy- +50
6. Baltimore- +49

Recent history is clear- The Cowboys are currently among the teams with the best shot to win a SB. Lots of football left to play, but we are in a good position.

Excellent post, dude.

And I agree with you.

The fact we have the numero uno defense gives us a shot, hombre.

 

[Pass2Run]

Bob, I remember this thread from last year. Dallas was positioned similarly. Then the San Francisco game happened.

This is what cracks me up. People hinging their perspective based on last year is a logical fallacy: Gambler's Fallacy...

 

[john van brocklin]

It’s one game. Consistency is the habit of champions. We need to start showing that.

1000% this^^^^

 

[DripTooHard]

So it's going to be like 1980. We lose to the Eagles in the Championship Game.

I hope our bond here is strong enough to deal with that.

Is Ron Jaworski still playing for the Eagles?

 

[CanadianCowboysFan]

Excellent research Bob. I’ve never heard anyone anywhere talk about PD as a SB indicator. Veddy interesting…..

that was what was odd re the Vikings, 8-1 but were barely + in differential and now are a -.

 

[black label]

POINT DIFFERENTIAL is one of the most accurate ways to determine teams that have a legitimate shot to win a Super Bowl. In fact in the last 9 seasons, 8 SB winners finished in the top 6 in point differential stats.

Here’s what I mean- 8 of the last 9 winners since 2013 all were in the top 6 in point differential:

• 2021- SB champ-Rams finished 6th in point differential.
• 2020 SB champ- Bucs finished 4th in PD.
• 2019 SB champ- the chiefs finished 4th in PD.
• 2018 SB champ- the Patriots finished 5th in PD.
• 2017 SB champ- the eaglets finished 1st in PD.
• 2016 SB champ- the Patriots finished 1st in PD.
• 2015 SB champ- the Broncos finished 10th in PD (the outlier of all these champs)
• 2014- SB champ: the Patriots finished 1st in PD.
  
• 2013 SB champ- the Seahawks finished 2nd in PD.

Here are the current TOP 6 in Point Differential through 10 games:

1. Buffalo- +107
2. Dallas- +84
3. Filly- +80
4. Kansas City- +67
5. Cincy- +50
6. Baltimore- +49

Recent history is clear- The Cowboys are currently among the teams with the best shot to win a SB. Lots of football left to play, but we are in a good position.

 

[plasticman]

Another great indicator seems to be turnover ratio and the Cowboys are ranked #3.

Year--Tm-- T/G Rank

2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6
2019 Kansas City Chiefs 7
2018 New England Patriots 5
2017 Philadelphia Eagles 4
2016 New England Patriots 3
2014 New England Patriots 2
2013 Seattle Seahawks 1
2012 Baltimore Ravens 8
2011 New York Giants 7
2010 Green Bay Packers 4
2009 New Orleans Saints 3

The Cowboys have multiple indicators that they are on the right track.

Defense: Points Allowed

Year--Tm--Pts Allowed Rank
2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8
2019 Kansas City Chiefs 7
2018 New England Patriots 7
2017 Philadelphia Eagles 4
2016 New England Patriots 1
2015 Denver Broncos 4
2014 New England Patriots 8
2013 Seattle Seahawks 1
2010 Green Bay Packers 2
2008 Pittsburgh Steelers 1
2005 Pittsburgh Steelers 3
2004 New England Patriots 2
2003 New England Patriots 1
2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1
2001 New England Patriots 6
2000 Baltimore Ravens 1

 

[FTWayne]

Bob is back on the Jerry Jones Superbowl train.

I knew Bob liked Jerry.

 

[Streifenkarl]

Bob, I remember this thread from last year. Dallas was positioned similarly. Then the San Francisco game happened.

And before that Arizona and KC showed us the way.

Sorry guys but this means nothing. Being a pretender is what this team is best at, let's hope this year will be different. (whoa, echo from 2021 incoming...)

What is actually encouraging, whenever they do the "Rush offense", they win. I really believe that adapting to the limitations Rush had, Kellen and MM switched the offense over to something that could lead us well into the championship. And if the defense can do in January, what they did against the Vikings (or Rams or Bengals), then we're all set.

 

[NVMe_Zo]

I was actually looking at this stat last night so I think it’s pretty cool that you posted this. I’m a die hard Astros fan and one of the things I’ve learned is that point differential is a big indicator of what’s to come in the foreseeable future come September and October. Regardless if we’re leading the league in scoring or just a middle of the pack offense, that differential will tell us a lot. This team has its issue to still work on, but every true contender is still dotting their i’s and crossing their t’s. We’re in great shape! It’s a good time to be a Cowboys fan. I hope they continue this balanced attack and master it comes playoff time. We don’t need the number 1 seed, our style plays well on the road, that makes us a very scary team.

 

[Cowboys1966]

Excellent research Bob. I’ve never heard anyone anywhere talk about PD as a SB indicator. Veddy interesting…..

Lol really? You have never heard of this? Funny how now it’s a thing to some after we pile on a +37 blowout.

Lol teams who outscore their opponents the most tend to win the most… And those teams tend to win Super Bowls.

 

[Bobhaze]

Another great indicator seems to be turnover ratio and the Cowboys are ranked #3.

Year--Tm-- T/G Rank

2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6
2019 Kansas City Chiefs 7
2018 New England Patriots 5
2017 Philadelphia Eagles 4
2016 New England Patriots 3
2014 New England Patriots 2
2013 Seattle Seahawks 1
2012 Baltimore Ravens 8
2011 New York Giants 7
2010 Green Bay Packers 4
2009 New Orleans Saints 3

The Cowboys have multiple indicators that they are on the right track.

Defense: Points Allowed

Year--Tm--Pts Allowed Rank
2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8
2019 Kansas City Chiefs 7
2018 New England Patriots 7
2017 Philadelphia Eagles 4
2016 New England Patriots 1
2015 Denver Broncos 4
2014 New England Patriots 8
2013 Seattle Seahawks 1
2010 Green Bay Packers 2
2008 Pittsburgh Steelers 1
2005 Pittsburgh Steelers 3
2004 New England Patriots 2
2003 New England Patriots 1
2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1
2001 New England Patriots 6
2000 Baltimore Ravens 1

Great stuff PM.

 

[Bobhaze]

Bob is back on the Jerry Jones Superbowl train.

I knew Bob liked Jerry.

I like Jerry when we win playoff games.

 

[ESisback]

POINT DIFFERENTIAL is one of the most accurate ways to determine teams that have a legitimate shot to win a Super Bowl. In fact in the last 9 seasons, 8 SB winners finished in the top 6 in point differential stats.

Here’s what I mean- 8 of the last 9 winners since 2013 all were in the top 6 in point differential:

• 2021- SB champ-Rams finished 6th in point differential.
• 2020 SB champ- Bucs finished 4th in PD.
• 2019 SB champ- the chiefs finished 4th in PD.
• 2018 SB champ- the Patriots finished 5th in PD.
• 2017 SB champ- the eaglets finished 1st in PD.
• 2016 SB champ- the Patriots finished 1st in PD.
• 2015 SB champ- the Broncos finished 10th in PD (the outlier of all these champs)
• 2014- SB champ: the Patriots finished 1st in PD.
  
• 2013 SB champ- the Seahawks finished 2nd in PD.

Here are the current TOP 6 in Point Differential through 10 games:

1. Buffalo- +107
2. Dallas- +84
3. Filly- +80
4. Kansas City- +67
5. Cincy- +50
6. Baltimore- +49

Recent history is clear- The Cowboys are currently among the teams with the best shot to win a SB. Lots of football left to play, but we are in a good position.

Good post! I agree that PD gives us an edge, but might the speculative and strangely well timed flags of interference, holding, and unnecessary roughness negate that edge?

 

[Zordon]

Bob, I remember this thread from last year. Dallas was positioned similarly. Then the San Francisco game happened.

This, unfortunately.

 

[Jake]

So if you score way more than your opponents you win more games?

Who knew?

Then you have the Giants, who have the same record as Dallas but only a +1 point differential through ten games.

Plus 84 seems more sustainable, but we'll have to see what happens on Thanksgiving.

 

[RonnieT24]

Then you have the Giants, who have the same record as Dallas but only a +1 point differential through ten games.

Plus 84 seems more sustainable, but we'll have to see what happens on Thanksgiving.

How bout the Vikings who have a better record but a negative point differential? But most of us had them AND the Giants as frauds weeks ago.