Thoughts about the Defense

[reddyuta]

I see this defense and see questions marks everywhere and a lot of journeymen occupying key spots,I think we will bad but not historically bad like last season.

 

[xwalker]

So you're saying IF 12 players that each have an over 50% chance of being good (let's say...60% each?) are good...and they stay healthier than last season (so...let's say average or above average healthiness compared to the league...or a 50% probability)...then the defense will be "very good."

SO:

.6*.6*.6*.6*.6*.6*.6*.6*.6*.6*.6*.6*.5=

0.00108

Or...a 0.1% chance that the Cowboys will be "very good."

WHOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Realistically, the most probably scenario is that this is one of the worst defenses in the league. Very likely top 5 worst. In many ways, this defense could easily be worse than last year.

The hope will be that the offense can boost it...but obviously the Cowboys are a realistic contender to make the playoffs based on offense...they are not realistic contenders for more than that though.

That's not how the math works.

1. Where did you get 12? There are 11 players on defense.

2. With your math, even if each player had a 99% chance of being good, the overall probability would be 5.94%.

 

[xwalker]

[quote="xwalker, post: 5593718, member: 5194"
CB 3
Claiborne - Terrific in college. Good as a rookie. Struggled with scheme and injuries in 2013.

I don't even know if he had a bad 2013. There were a few games where he played really, really well. The PHI game was one of them.[/quote]

Yes, any problems that he's had are exaggerated because of where he was drafted. At worst case he is a very good 3rd CB.

 

[Bullflop]

The Cowboys' defense will require many of its youngsters and newly-acquired veterans to step up and deliver the goods in 2014. DeMarcus Lawrence is likely to be initiated as a pass rushing specialist early in the 2014 season and possibly get promoted to a fulltime guy if his run coverage suffices as his development and experience continues.

Wilcox will likely be challenged in TC by Hamilton, who has been doing well in the OTAs and minicamp. At MLB, I feel McClain has the physical ability to challenge Durant if he's able to just stick around long enough to take advantage of his opportunity. If not, perhaps Holloman enters the picture at MLB or he could also factor in as a candidate to compete with Wilbur at SLB.

This team sorely needs Claiborne to step up and produce the way he did in college to give the team's secondary the boost it will need to compete in a year with a demanding schedule. I'm hopeful Carr will do much the same. He appears to be re-dedicating himself to buckling down and doing better this year. It surely remains to be seen if Marinelli's adjustment to accomodate his CBs knack for man coverage is destined to be helpful in improving a secondary that got pummelled last year. Godspeed to the "CBs."

 

[CCBoy]

The Cowboys' defense will require many of its youngsters and newly-acquired veterans to step up and deliver the goods in 2014. DeMarcus Lawrence is likely to be initiated as a pass rushing specialist early in the 2014 season and possibly get promoted to a fulltime guy if his run coverage suffices as his development and experience continues.

Wilcox will likely be challenged in TC by Hamilton, who has been doing well in the OTAs and minicamp. At MLB, I feel McClain has the physical ability to challenge Durant if he's able to just stick around long enough to take advantage of his opportunity. If not, perhaps Holloman enters the picture at MLB or he could also factor in as a candidate to compete with Wilbur at SLB.

This team sorely needs Claiborne to step up and produce the way he did in college to give the team's secondary the boost it will need to compete in a year with a demanding schedule. I'm hopeful Carr will do much the same. He appears to be re-dedicating himself to buckling down and doing better this year. It surely remains to be seen if Marinelli's adjustment to accomodate his CBs knack for man coverage is destined to be helpful in improving a secondary that got pummelled last year. Godspeed to the "CBs."

True, but a door of opportunity remains for some journeymen as well:

Anthony Spencer, Amobi Okoye, Rolando McClain, Justin Durant, Bruce Carter, Terrell McClain, Jeremy Mincey, and Uche Nwaneri...

 

[visionary]

Which of these players has no chance to be a decent NFL starter?

RDE
Lawrence

LDE
Selvie

3-tech DT
Melton

1-tech DT
McClain

WLB
Carter

MLB
McClain

SLB
Holloman

CB 1
Carr

CB 2
Scandrick

CB 3
Claiborne

Safety 1
Church

Safety 2
Wilcox

I liked your OP Xwalker and if your premise turns out to be true we may have a very good defense the problem I have is that the premise is extremely extremely unlikely to come true

You are changing the premise by saying "decent NFL starter" you need several of these players to play at a near-elite or at least high-impact level

Not one of the players listed has ever played at the level that your original premise requires they all play at in the same year or are coming off major surgery (in the case of the one good player in melton) and we have no idea how productive he can be

Is it possible ? Sure

Is it likely? No way

 

[hra8700]

That's not how the math works.

1. Where did you get 12? There are 11 players on defense.

2. With your math, even if each player had a 99% chance of being good, the overall probability would be 5.94%.

1. Sorry, redo with 11 itll be like .02%.

2. No, in that case it would be 44%. Slightly below the 50% injury adjustment. The math is absolutely correct, this is stats 101. Or maybe 000 lol.

The issue of course is that ALL 11 dont need to be good. But even saying most need to be good, and each is not extremely likely to be good, when you look at the probability as a whole that all of those disparate events will take place the picture is very grim. It's a common human error to break up probabilities into their individual components and ignore the whole. Thats why OJ simpson got off. Thats why the cowboys defense will not be good this year.

 

[visionary]

You ignore xwalker trying to engage you in a discussion in the actual players and instead settle for this emotional tripe.

The next time you try to break something down and talk about specifics will be your first.

I love it when internet couch scouts look at "film " and "break down" and "project" players

I miss the days when you and Stanley spadowski used to "break down" the OL and tell us how good costa, Arkin and killer kowalski were going to be

Just because you want to be "specific" does not mean you are accurate

So please spare us......some of us have been here a while

 

[xwalker]

1. Sorry, redo with 11 itll be like .02%.

2. No, in that case it would be 44%. Slightly below the 50% injury adjustment. The math is absolutely correct, this is stats 101. Or maybe 000 lol.

The issue of course is that ALL 11 dont need to be good. But even saying most need to be good, and each is not extremely likely to be good, when you look at the probability as a whole that all of those disparate events will take place the picture is very grim. It's a common human error to break up probabilities into their individual components and ignore the whole. Thats why OJ simpson got off. Thats why the cowboys defense will not be good this year.

Ok, so your contention is that a defense with each starter having a 99% probability of being good only has a 44% probability of having a good overall defense.

I don't think anybody would believe that.

 

[xwalker]

I love it when internet couch scouts look at "film " and "break down" and "project" players

I miss the days when you and Stanley spadowski used to "break down" the OL and tell us how good costa, Arkin and killer kowalski were going to be

Just because you want to be "specific" does not mean you are accurate

So please spare us......some of us have been here a while

So your theory is that there is no reason to ever discuss specifics. If somebody "feels" like the defense will be bad then that's good enough for you?

 

[wileedog]

Not one of the players listed has ever played at the level that your original premise requires they all play at in the same year or are coming off major surgery (in the case of the one good player in melton) and we have no idea how productive he can be

Is it possible ? Sure

Is it likely? No way

This. Its easy to say all of those guys can at least be decent starters (although I have serious doubts about McClain and Wilcox), but who on that list is going to be keeping opposing DC's up at night? Who has the impact of (previous years)Ware, Hatcher, Lee or Spencer? Where are the legitimate playmakers?

As of right now the only guy on the whole front 7 with proven NFL talent is Melton, and even at his best he won't duplicate what Hatcher did last year. And maybe R McClain if he bothers to show up to TC. Everyone else has questions marks, and most have pretty definitive ceilings.

 

[visionary]

So your theory is that there is no reason to ever discuss specifics. If somebody "feels" like the defense will be bad then that's good enough for you?

i have read your posts for a while and always appreciated them for their objectivity (some of your recent posts not
withstanding)
i addressed your premise in my post to you
when you base your post on a premise that is extremely unlikely to occur, you should be prepared for other posters to say exactly that

my post to the poster i was addressing needs to be viewed in the context of who i was addressing
when one laces one's "objective" posts with one's agenda, people will point that out as i did to Fuzzy

 

[CCBoy]

I love it when internet couch scouts look at "film " and "break down" and "project" players

I miss the days when you and Stanley spadowski used to "break down" the OL and tell us how good costa, Arkin and killer kowalski were going to be

Just because you want to be "specific" does not mean you are accurate

So please spare us......some of us have been here a while

I think I'll just purchase a slide ruler when looking for a slide scale on the same measurement.

 

[jazzcat22]

It would require more talent up front to be even an average defense.

Take an honest look at the DL depth chart. It's actually pretty embarrassing. Our LBs may be even worse.

Compared to what other teams? Can you list them, and backup your statement.

I know most fans are over critical of their teams, and have rose colored glasses on for other teams. Well, the negative fans anyway. But why are our players any worse than most other teams, including starters and depth. I feel they put together a very good defensive unit that has some very good potential. Yes, it's on paper, but so are most of all the other teams at his time of the year.

True, we need to see them play yet, but outside of Seattle and SF, and a few other teams, I would bet you can make an argument for this on over 20 teams easily, they are not any better off than we are.
You cannot have a superstar at every position, including superstars as backups. Just not the way of any team.

 

[CCBoy]

Compared to what other teams? Can you list them, and backup your statement.

I know most fans are over critical of their teams, and have rose colored glasses on for other teams. Well, the negative fans anyway. But why are our players any worse than most other teams, including starters and depth. I feel they put together a very good defensive unit that has some very good potential. Yes, it's on paper, but so are most of all the other teams at his time of the year.

True, we need to see them play yet, but outside of Seattle and SF, and a few other teams, I would bet you can make an argument for this on over 20 teams easily, they are not any better off than we are.
You cannot have a superstar at every position, including superstars as backups. Just not the way of any team.

Easy fella' none of the contra affairs have proven a discounting of value beyond a personalized emotional attack. Let the burn barrel bunch choose sides...even let them get rip snorting drunk on their Ripple...so what?

 

[burmafrd]

Compared to what other teams? Can you list them, and backup your statement.

I know most fans are over critical of their teams, and have rose colored glasses on for other teams. Well, the negative fans anyway. But why are our players any worse than most other teams, including starters and depth. I feel they put together a very good defensive unit that has some very good potential. Yes, it's on paper, but so are most of all the other teams at his time of the year.

True, we need to see them play yet, but outside of Seattle and SF, and a few other teams, I would bet you can make an argument for this on over 20 teams easily, they are not any better off than we are.
You cannot have a superstar at every position, including superstars as backups. Just not the way of any team.

Melton is the ONLY DL starter we have that is considered anywhere near elite status. Not counting Spencer since its likely he never amounts to anything ever again. Outside of him we have NO ONE who any OC would worry about at all.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Sorry. There is no reasonable set of circumstances that could make this defense "very good" this year.

Isn't that exactly what the OP said? Everything would need to come together perfectly for this defense to be "very good."

If each position group has a 50% chance of exceeding expectations we are talking about a 12.5% chance of the defense being very good. I'll leave it to you to determine whether that is a reasonable hit rate or not.

You could have also...I dunno...debated him on something. Anything....

 

[jobberone]

I liked your OP Xwalker and if your premise turns out to be true we may have a very good defense the problem I have is that the premise is extremely extremely unlikely to come true

You are changing the premise by saying "decent NFL starter" you need several of these players to play at a near-elite or at least high-impact level

Not one of the players listed has ever played at the level that your original premise requires they all play at in the same year or are coming off major surgery (in the case of the one good player in melton) and we have no idea how productive he can be

Is it possible ? Sure

Is it likely? No way

You need solid or better play from your 3, Mike, and FS in this D. The rest needs to be avg+ and if you want to win a SB solid to better in more than those 3 positions. That's the party line although I'd add WDE and solid DB play to my list at the very least. But you don't need that many Pro Bowlers or All Pros. My guess is without looking most here cannot tell you more that 3-4 players on the Seattle D.

I do think there are a lot of things and I mean a lot that needs to go right for us to do more than compete for the NFC East crown. I don't see that as being terribly unrealistic.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

So you're saying IF 12 players that each have an over 50% chance of being good (let's say...60% each?) are good...and they stay healthier than last season (so...let's say average or above average healthiness compared to the league...or a 50% probability)...then the defense will be "very good."

SO:

.6*.6*.6*.6*.6*.6*.6*.6*.6*.6*.6*.6*.5=

0.00108

Or...a 0.1% chance that the Cowboys will be "very good."

WHOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Realistically, the most probably scenario is that this is one of the worst defenses in the league. Very likely top 5 worst. In many ways, this defense could easily be worse than last year.

The hope will be that the offense can boost it...but obviously the Cowboys are a realistic contender to make the playoffs based on offense...they are not realistic contenders for more than that though.

He said position groups. Not players.

 

[jobberone]

Isn't that exactly what the OP said? Everything would need to come together perfectly for this defense to be "very good."

If each position group has a 50% chance of exceeding expectations we are talking about a 12.5% chance of the defense being very good. I'll leave it to you to determine whether that is a reasonable hit rate or not.

You could have also...I dunno...debated him on something. Anything....

I'm thinking better than 12.5% not that any number we put out there really means much. Your point wasn't numbers anyway. We have no idea when and where we will get out injuries and in some places they may hurt more than others. I'm just crossing my fingers for now.