Thoughts on Cleveland's Pick

[sonnyboy]

This is fun. We're fans. We're allowed to do this.

Cleveland is a 3 win team. I can smell it.

The only question is.......is there anolther 3 win team. Or maybe a 2 win team.

I know most would say they'd be happy with a top 5 pick.

But there's a world of difference between 1 and 3. Even 1 and 2.

The first pick has that extra value/premium. It puts you in controll of the draft. Especially when/if you have a franchise QB coming out.

Looking at the draft history of teams dealing the number one pick to allow another team to draft that franchise QB.

Look what Atlanta got from Indy for the first pick to get Jeff George.
Look what S.D. got from Atlanta for the right to pick Vick.

I can see dropping from #1 overall down to 2 and still drafting McFadden.
The net from this would at least be the 33rd pick in 2008 and that teams 2009 first round pick.

I know its speculation on top of speculation, but its still pretty exciting

 

[ZeroClub]

Not to mention they are playing in a league in which each of the remaining teams are possible contenders for the superbowl. Baltimore has only gotten better, so I see at least 12 wins for them. Cincinnat should win at least 10 games if the rest of the Bengals can stay out of jail. The Steelers will be playing an easier 3rd place schedule, so I can see them winning 10 games as well. The Browns on the other hand could go 0-6 in the division again this year. Take a look at their schedule:

Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
at Oakland
Baltimore
at New England
Miami
at St. Louis
Seattle
at Pittsburgh
at Baltimore
Houston
at Arizona
at NY Jets
Buffalo
at Cincinnati
San Francisco

I know the games must be played on the field, but realistically, I can only see the Browns beating a few of those teams: Oakland, maybe Miami, and Houston. I will be generous and give them two more wins. At best, I see the Browns finishing 5-11. I would say that would still assure the Cowboys a top 5 pick. Going by this years draft, that would give the Cowboys pick 5 or 6.

Oh, it is so hard to tell.

Last year the Browns beat the Raiders, Jets, Falcons, and Chiefs. The 2006 Browns also had three close losses to the Saints (by 5), Ravens (by 1), Steelers (by 4).

It isn't a stretch to think that of their six divisional games, the Browns could get a lucky bounce or two and win one or two of these games. They almost won two divisional games last year and strange things happen in divisional games sometimes.

The Browns beat Oakland and the Jets last year; that could happen again.

The Browns lost to Houston last year, but it isn't like the Texans are anything great.

The Browns would have to be awful and unlucky to go 0-4 against the lackluster NFC West next year.

And somewhere along the line, the Browns are going to play a team that lost its starting QB or suffered some other hardship (maybe the Bills, Dolphins, 49ers, somebody).

 

[peplaw06]

This is fun. We're fans. We're allowed to do this.

Cleveland is a 3 win team. I can smell it.

The only question is.......is there anolther 3 win team. Or maybe a 2 win team.

I know most would say they'd be happy with a top 5 pick.

But there's a world of difference between 1 and 3. Even 1 and 2.

The first pick has that extra value/premium. It puts you in controll of the draft. Especially when/if you have a franchise QB coming out.

Looking at the draft history of teams dealing the number one pick to allow another team to draft that franchise QB.

Look what Atlanta got from Indy for the first pick to get Jeff George.
Look what S.D. got from Atlanta for the right to pick Vick.

I can see dropping from #1 overall down to 2 and still drafting McFadden.
The net from this would at least be the 33rd pick in 2008 and that teams 2009 first round pick.

I know its speculation on top of speculation, but its still pretty exciting

If we get the #1, I want to spend it on McFadden. That is assuming that he doesn't get injured or fall of the draft boards... I don't want to risk trading down and NOT getting him. If the #2 team is sitting there needing a franchise QB, and were satisfied with Romo (aka looking to get McFadden) they're not going to trade with us, because they know we won't take their guy. If we drop lower than 2, then we get the added risk of someone else taking him at 2, or trading up to 2 to get him.

 

[MarionBarberThe4th]

they're not going to trade with us, because they know we won't take their guy

.

If we have #1, we hold all the chips. We could bluff and say we got a deal in the works with Buffalo, Minnesota, Jacksonville ect. Actually, all thoose teams would be calling, so no bluff relly necessary.

 

[peplaw06]

.

If we have #1, we hold all the chips. We could bluff and say we got a deal in the works with Buffalo, Minnesota, Jacksonville ect. Actually, all thoose teams would be calling, so no bluff relly necessary.

I understand that, but...

1) if we traded with any of those teams we would fall too far to guarantee getting McFadden
2) the number 2 team would know that

The number 2 team is not without chips. The number 1 may hold most of them, but not all. The 2 team may have two guys who they would be ecstatic with. In that case, they're not moving. That plus they have the threat of trading their own pick for someone who would want our guy if we move down.

 

[MarionBarberThe4th]

Even if JJ has a poor year, we dont have to go McFadden. Slaton would be an amazing compliment to MB3(theoretically).

Or, lets say were at 1,the Bills are at 2. The Vikings at 3. Lets say they both want Brohm. And we want McFadden. You dont think it would be worth it to the #2 team to give away at least their 2nd round pick to make sure someone else doesnt jump over them?

RB(If it is a hole) is going to be easier to fill than CB or LT might be. So we could even go down several spots, take a big time tackle, and then a corner. And then jump back into the first and get Slaton or one of the other RB's.


Im probably rambling. But unless the other RB's have down years, it would be worth it to trade down and fill other holes and get future picks. And if we know whos taking who, we could still get McFadden(Is anyone still reading this)

The End

 

[big dog cowboy]

In fact, I could see KC being one of those teams that finishes worse than the Cleveland pick and needs a QB. Is anyone sold on Croyle?

That won't happen. The Chefs front office is solidly behind Croyle that is why they let Green go.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Too early to tell.

I am guarding myself from getting too giddy with what the pick could be.

I think the Buffalo pick jaded me so I don't want to ruin it with this one.

I know it's unavoidable, but I hope they don't do a "Cleveland watch"

I think the Buffalo ticker did us in the last time

hehe, I said did us

 

[dalboy]

who knows we have to see how the season plays out for the boys and what we need bad. I will be watching a lot of college football this year.

 

[Ashwynn]

For whatever it is worth -- the Brown's 2007 Schedule

Sep 9 - Pittsburgh
Sep 16 - Cincinnati
Sep 23 - @Oakland
Sep 30 - Baltimore
Oct 7 - @New England
Oct 14 - Miami
Week 7 - BYE
Oct 28 - @St. Louis
Nov 4 - Seattle
Nov 11 - @Pittsburgh
Nov 18 - @Baltimore
Nov 25 - Houston
Dec 2 - @Arizona
Dec 9 - @N.Y. Jets
Dec 16 - Buffalo
Dec 23 - @Cincinnati
Dec 30 - San Francisco


My take:

If things broke right for them, they could win 7 or 8 games.

If things broke wrong for them, they might win only 2 or 3.

Wow. When you look at their schedule, you can see a 2-3 win season actually. Jets, Houston, Oakland are the only teams you can say are not definately better then them. Course upsets happen but wowsers, Its very likely wee got the top pickin the draft. Certainly a 'better then zero' chance of having the number one pick. Thats pretty good for a playoff calibre team like the boys.

 

[03EBZ06]

I'm going to say they will probably win 5 to 6 games and if they win less then that, I'd be elated.

 

[speedkilz88]

Wow. When you look at their schedule, you can see a 2-3 win season actually. Jets, Houston, Oakland are the only teams you can say are not definately better then them. Course upsets happen but wowsers, Its very likely wee got the top pickin the draft. Certainly a 'better then zero' chance of having the number one pick. Thats pretty good for a playoff calibre team like the boys.

The Jets were 10-7 last year, the Texans aren't good but they were 6-10 with David Carr playing in a haze.