Thoughts on Ray Rice

[ABQcowboyJR]

One moment I think that the Cowboys need to draft a third down back with lightening speed to make plays. I then look at the cowboys and their success with running the ball over the past few years. We never had backs that were lightening quick or fast. We had a back with decent speed and good all around skills in JJ.

I look at the draft and see a good complete back in Ray Rice. But he lacks that speed I previously mentioned. I'm of the opinion right now that we should draft Jamaal Charles. Thoughts?

 

[masomenos]

One moment I think that the Cowboys need to draft a third down back with lightening speed to make plays. I then look at the cowboys and their success with running the ball over the past few years. We never had backs that were lightening quick or fast. We had a back with decent speed and good all around skills in JJ.

I look at the draft and see a good complete back in Ray Rice. But he lacks that speed I previously mentioned. I'm of the opinion right now that we should draft Jamaal Charles. Thoughts?

Ray Rice doesn't lack speed. He and McFadden have the exact same 10 yard time and Rice beats McFadden in 20 yard time. And he's faster in both those categories than Charles. He ran a 4.47 40, that's plenty fast. Rice would be a great fit in Dallas.

 

[ABQcowboyJR]

Ray Rice doesn't lack speed. He and McFadden have the exact same 10 yard time and Rice beats McFadden in 20 yard time. And he's faster in both those categories than Charles. He ran a 4.47 40, that's plenty fast. Rice would be a great fit in Dallas.

I was not aware of this. most of my judgement came from film that I watch of him. Maybe i should do some more indepth research.

 

[tomson75]

Ray Rice doesn't lack speed. He and McFadden have the exact same 10 yard time and Rice beats McFadden in 20 yard time. And he's faster in both those categories than Charles. He ran a 4.47 40, that's plenty fast. Rice would be a great fit in Dallas.

Where did you get the 4.47 time from?

Was that his final "official" time from the combine? The only time I've seen from him was a 4.44...the same as JJ, and enough speed, when combined with his vision and lateral stability, to be a lethal combination.

 

[masomenos]

Where did you get the 4.47 time from?

Was that his final "official" time from the combine? The only time I've seen from him was a 4.44...the same as JJ, and enough speed, when combined with his vision and lateral stability, to be a lethal combination.

NFL Draft Scout has 4.44 listed as the unofficial time and 4.47 as the official one with timed splits. Now this could be wrong, but NFLDS is a pretty reliable source so I normally take their word for things. But you're right about Rice, he certainly has a terrific skill set and could have a lot of success in the NFL because of it. Even one of the "big" concerns that's been noted would, in effect, be negated if we drafted him. People like to worry about him carrying such a huge workload in college, that it might shorten his career...but hey we're bringing him in as a guy who would share carries.

 

[Nors]

One moment I think that the Cowboys need to draft a third down back with lightening speed to make plays. I then look at the cowboys and their success with running the ball over the past few years. We never had backs that were lightening quick or fast. We had a back with decent speed and good all around skills in JJ.

I look at the draft and see a good complete back in Ray Rice. But he lacks that speed I previously mentioned. I'm of the opinion right now that we should draft Jamaal Charles. Thoughts?

Ray Rice is Emmitt Smith - don't be scared away by "straight line" 40 speed.

Look at his 3 cone and shuttle times

 

[TheCount]

Ray Rice is Emmitt Smith - don't be scared away by "straight line" 40 speed.

Look at his 3 cone and shuttle times

Ray Rice is Emmit Smith as much as Chris Johnson is L.T., which is to say not at all.

At least let the kid get into camp before comparing him to one of the best ever.

Please.

 

[DaBoys4Life]

Ray Rice is Emmit Smith as much as Chris Johnson is L.T., which is to say not at all.

At least let the kid get into camp before comparing him to one of the best ever.

Please.

man if you could curse on these forums i woulda dropped so many F bombs its not even funny. I say pass on Ray Rice he is overrated and he sucks I don't think some one that carried the ball 380 + times in one season can be used to sharing the load.

 

[theogt]

Ray Rice is Emmit Smith as much as Chris Johnson is L.T., which is to say not at all.

At least let the kid get into camp before comparing him to one of the best ever.

Please.

Except that Rice has a lot of qualities similar to Emmitt Smith, yet Chris Johnson shares very little with L.T., other than they play the same position (which may not even be the case in the future).

 

[masomenos]

man if you could curse on these forums i woulda dropped so many F bombs its not even funny. I say pass on Ray Rice he is overrated and he sucks I don't think some one that carried the ball 380 + times in one season can be used to sharing the load.

Well he did split carries as a freshman...

You can't say he sucks and expect to be taken seriously, he ran for over 1,000 yards three straight seasons and put up 2,000 yards and 25 total TDs as a senior. He only had 1 game under 4 YPC as a senior, compared to 5 for Chris Johnson. As far as ability to share the load, you have to look at the fact in the games Chris Johnson received 15 or fewer carries (appx. the amount he'd get sharing the load) he was only above 4 YPC 50% of the time, including two games UNDER 3 YPC. Johnson has value in his versatility put he's much less of a sure thing as a share the load type RB.

 

[DaBoys4Life]

Well he did split carries as a freshman...

You can't say he sucks and expect to be taken seriously, he ran for over 1,000 yards three straight seasons and put up 2,000 yards and 25 total TDs as a senior. He only had 1 game under 4 YPC as a senior, compared to 5 for Chris Johnson. As far as ability to share the load, you have to look at the fact in the games Chris Johnson received 15 or fewer carries (appx. the amount he'd get sharing the load) he was only above 4 YPC 50% of the time, including two games UNDER 3 YPC. Johnson has value in his versatility put he's much less of a sure thing as a share the load type RB.

Actually that was ray rice junior year he skipped his senior year because he knew if he would have stayed at Rutger they would have ran him into the ground. I understand what you are saying about the carries the only time CJ has been productive is when he has 20 or more carries. However if you look at those games they we're able to win 2 games when he touched the balls 15 or less so that means they were playing catch up and the running game is normally the first thing you ditch when trying to come from behind.

 

[masomenos]

Actually that was ray rice junior year he skipped his senior year because he knew if he would have stayed at Rutger they would have ran him into the ground. I understand what you are saying about the carries the only time CJ has been productive is when he has 20 or more carries. However if you look at those games they we're able to win 2 games when he touched the balls 15 or less so that means they were playing catch up and the running game is normally the first thing you ditch when trying to come from behind.

Good call, that was a mistype on my part.

Well in the North Carloina game that they won when Johnson had 8 carries ECU wasn't playing from behind, it was a close game that was tied at halftime and tied going into the 4th quarter. Now with a tie in the 4th quarter it's very unusual that Johnson wasn't given the ball more, but I think it has something to do with the fact that North Carolina had played the run fantastically all day, but had been giving up tons of yards through the air. And that's where Johnson shined, he had 153 receiving yards and 2 TDs.

Now the UAB game with fewer than 15 carries was a blowout on the part of ECU and I imagine they pulled Johnson from the game after a while. As far as the games they lost when Johnson had 15 or fewer carries, only one was a real blowout and that was the West Virginia game.

That's what I was talking about when I said his value is really from his versatility, but he ranks behind guys like Rice in terms of his ability to actually be productive running the ball when sharing carries. I like Johnson, I think you know I've turned the corner on him and think he'd be a valuable addition to Dallas, but I do think there are questions regarding his ability to really be a backup/share the carries runner and believe we'd need a more solid and consistent runner on the roster as the third guy if we did draft Johnson.

 

[DaBoys4Life]

Good call, that was a mistype on my part.

Well in the North Carloina game that they won when Johnson had 8 carries ECU wasn't playing from behind, it was a close game that was tied at halftime and tied going into the 4th quarter. Now with a tie in the 4th quarter it's very unusual that Johnson wasn't given the ball more, but I think it has something to do with the fact that North Carolina had played the run fantastically all day, but had been giving up tons of yards through the air. And that's where Johnson shined, he had 153 receiving yards and 2 TDs.

Now the UAB game with fewer than 15 carries was a blowout on the part of ECU and I imagine they pulled Johnson from the game after a while. As far as the games they lost when Johnson had 15 or fewer carries, only one was a real blowout and that was the West Virginia game.

That's what I was talking about when I said his value is really from his versatility, but he ranks behind guys like Rice in terms of his ability to actually be productive running the ball when sharing carries. I like Johnson, I think you know I've turned the corner on him and think he'd be a valuable addition to Dallas, but I do think there are questions regarding his ability to really be a backup/share the carries runner and believe we'd need a more solid and consistent runner on the roster as the third guy if we did draft Johnson.

I was thinking bout the VT game they were just dominated on both sides of the ball and CJ couldn't get anything going really.

I have to disagree with that Rice is a workhose type of back that demands a lot of carries or maybe they feed him a lot of carries at RU cuz he was all they had especially after Leonard left. 380 335 and 195 carries in his career makes me want to be cause of him same with Kevin Smith 450 carries in a single season is ridiculous. The top 3 RB in the nation all had over 350 carries I don't think they will be able to hold up in the league.

 

[masomenos]

I was thinking bout the VT game they were just dominated on both sides of the ball and CJ couldn't get anything going really.

I have to disagree with that Rice is a workhose type of back that demands a lot of carries or maybe they feed him a lot of carries at RU cuz he was all they had especially after Leonard left. 380 335 and 195 carries in his career makes me want to be cause of him same with Kevin Smith 450 carries in a single season is ridiculous. The top 3 RB in the nation all had over 350 carries I don't think they will be able to hold up in the league.

I think that's a valid concern if they get drafted by a team that plans on having them as the feature back, guys like Rice already have a lot of "miles on their tires" and may not have as many years in them as a full time starter as guys with less carries. However, for a team like Dallas where the backup guy is going to be looking at about 10 carries per game at the most that concern about a guy like Rice wearing down is significantly lower.

This is going to take a little while but I'm going to go through all of Rice's games this year and find out how he did on his first 10 carries in each game, so we can see if he is a guy who needs 30+ carries to be effective or not. I have no idea how this will turn out.

Game 1 vs Buffalo: 10 carries for 79 yards and 2 TDs, 7.9 YPC, 4 runs of 10+ yards

Game 2 vs Navy: 10 carries for 56 yards and 1 TD, 5.6 YPC, 1 run of 10+ yards

Game 3 vs Norfolk St: 10 carries for 61 yards and 1 TD, 6.1 YPC, 1 run of 10+ yards

Game 4 vs Mayland: 10 carries for 64 yards and 0 TDs, 6.4 YPC, 2 runs over 10+ yards

Game 5 vs Cincinnati: 10 carries for 12 yards and 0 TDs, 1.2 YPC, 0 runs of 10+ yards

Game 6 vs Syracuse: 10 carries for 36 yards and 2 TDs, 3.6 YPC, 0 runs of 10+ yards

Game 7 vs South Florida: 10 carries for 45 yards and 0 TDs, 4.5 YPC, 2 runs of 10+ yards

Game 8 vs West Virginia: 10 carries for 41 yards and 0 TDs, 4.1 YPC, 1 run of 10+ yards

Game 9 vs Connecticut: 10 carries for 70 yards and 0 TDs, 7.0 YPC, 1 run of 10+ yards

Game 10 vs Army: 10 carries for 68 yards and 0 TDs, 6.8 YPC, 1 run of 10+ yards

Game 11 vs Pittsburgh: No Play by Play Available

Game 12 vs Louisville: 10 carries for 46 yards and 2 TDs, 4.6 YPC, 3 runs of 10+ yards

Game 13 vs Ball St: 10 carries for 63 yards and 1 TD, 6.3 YPC, 3 runs of 10+ yards.

Those are pretty good numbers if you ask me. Only 2 games below 3 yards per carry and in one of those games he scored 2 TDs. That comes out to an average of 10 carries for 53 yards and a TD every .75 games. Now I know you can't project college stats into the NFL but if he offered the same production for Dallas his season #s would be 160 carries for 848 yards and 12 TDs. That would be phenomenal, but the TDs would likely be a lot lower since many of his TDs on those first 10 carries came from inside the redzone, which would be Marion Barber territory. I'll try and do this for Chris Johnson later on, but as far as the stats show it doesn't look like Rice really needs to have tons of carries to be productive.

Also, a last note, you have to remember that these first 10 carries come before the defense has worn down at all. I remember a lot of people liked to say that's why Barber would get all of his yards.

 

[DaBoys4Life]

I think that's a valid concern if they get drafted by a team that plans on having them as the feature back, guys like Rice already have a lot of "miles on their tires" and may not have as many years in them as a full time starter as guys with less carries. However, for a team like Dallas where the backup guy is going to be looking at about 10 carries per game at the most that concern about a guy like Rice wearing down is significantly lower.

This is going to take a little while but I'm going to go through all of Rice's games this year and find out how he did on his first 10 carries in each game, so we can see if he is a guy who needs 30+ carries to be effective or not. I have no idea how this will turn out.

Game 1 vs Buffalo: 10 carries for 79 yards and 2 TDs, 7.9 YPC, 4 runs of 10+ yards

Game 2 vs Navy: 10 carries for 56 yards and 1 TD, 5.6 YPC, 1 run of 10+ yards

Game 3 vs Norfolk St: 10 carries for 61 yards and 1 TD, 6.1 YPC, 1 run of 10+ yards

Game 4 vs Mayland: 10 carries for 64 yards and 0 TDs, 6.4 YPC, 2 runs over 10+ yards

Game 5 vs Cincinnati: 10 carries for 12 yards and 0 TDs, 1.2 YPC, 0 runs of 10+ yards

Game 6 vs Syracuse: 10 carries for 36 yards and 2 TDs, 3.6 YPC, 0 runs of 10+ yards

Game 7 vs South Florida: 10 carries for 45 yards and 0 TDs, 4.5 YPC, 2 runs of 10+ yards

Game 8 vs West Virginia: 10 carries for 41 yards and 0 TDs, 4.1 YPC, 1 run of 10+ yards

Game 9 vs Connecticut: 10 carries for 70 yards and 0 TDs, 7.0 YPC, 1 run of 10+ yards

Game 10 vs Army: 10 carries for 68 yards and 0 TDs, 6.8 YPC, 1 run of 10+ yards

Game 11 vs Pittsburgh: No Play by Play Available

Game 12 vs Louisville: 10 carries for 46 yards and 2 TDs, 4.6 YPC, 3 runs of 10+ yards

Game 13 vs Ball St: 10 carries for 63 yards and 1 TD, 6.3 YPC, 3 runs of 10+ yards.

Those are pretty good numbers if you ask me. Only 2 games below 3 yards per carry and in one of those games he scored 2 TDs. That comes out to an average of 10 carries for 53 yards and a TD every .75 games. Now I know you can't project college stats into the NFL but if he offered the same production for Dallas his season #s would be 160 carries for 848 yards and 12 TDs. That would be phenomenal, but the TDs would likely be a lot lower since many of his TDs on those first 10 carries came from inside the redzone, which would be Marion Barber territory. I'll try and do this for Chris Johnson later on, but as far as the stats show it doesn't look like Rice really needs to have tons of carries to be productive.

Also, a last note, you have to remember that these first 10 carries come before the defense has worn down at all. I remember a lot of people liked to say that's why Barber would get all of his yards.

i don't see those 10 carries being to tell us anything

 

[masomenos]

i don't see those 10 carries being to tell us anything

Well, whoever we pickup to be Barber's running mate will likely see an average of around 10 carries per game or less. Those stats were simply showing how Ray Rice fared on his first 10 carries in each game this season. If anything the stats would likely be higher as is commonplace with backup RBs (see: Troy Hambrick). I think it's a legitimate way to evaluate a RB who will only get 10 carries in a game. It doesn't take into account skills like kick returning or receiving, but that's not what it's meant to do, it's simply meant to be demonstrative of a RBs performance on limited carries.

 

[DaBoys4Life]

Well, whoever we pickup to be Barber's running mate will likely see an average of around 10 carries per game or less. Those stats were simply showing how Ray Rice fared on his first 10 carries in each game this season. If anything the stats would likely be higher as is commonplace with backup RBs (see: Troy Hambrick). I think it's a legitimate way to evaluate a RB who will only get 10 carries in a game. It doesn't take into account skills like kick returning or receiving, but that's not what it's meant to do, it's simply meant to be demonstrative of a RBs performance on limited carries.

that assume us running the ball at lest 30 times. Barbers averaged i think 12 carries per game although 2 carries don't make a big of a difference i'm not sure how willing we will be to use MB3 and depending on the back we get if he will be the starter. I still say MB3 better of the bench in the second half

 

[masomenos]

that assume us running the ball at lest 30 times. Barbers averaged i think 12 carries per game although 2 carries don't make a big of a difference i'm not sure how willing we will be to use MB3 and depending on the back we get if he will be the starter. I still say MB3 better of the bench in the second half

Barber averaged right around 13 carries per game. I based the 10 carries number off of Julius' stats. As a team we averaged 26 carries per game including Romo and Thompson. So you figure, if things stay the same, that the numbers will be pretty similar.

 

[ThatsmyQB]

Ray Rice is Emmit Smith as much as Chris Johnson is L.T., which is to say not at all.

At least let the kid get into camp before comparing him to one of the best ever.

Please.

that's what people do when talking about prospects, they use a PRO who they think they resemble is all, they're NOT SAYING he'll be the best ever or what not.
All he's saying is that he is comparable to Emmitt in that his straight line speed isn't fast but he hits the hole quick, is a compact back like Emmit, etc.
People do this EVERY YEAR, this guy reminds me of such and such pro player, it doesn't mean they are saying he's gonna be as great of a pro as the player they are comparig him too, just that his characteristics are similar to him is all.

 

[ThatsmyQB]

I think it's a legitimate way to evaluate a RB who will only get 10 carries in a game

Well then you'd want Felix Jones to be your R.B. because he has shown he's able to bust off LONG RUNS at an alarming rate when getting minimal carries each game!
I'm hoping we get Jones, would like to trade up in round 2 to get him if he's still on the board at pick #49 or so.

He's proven he can be successful as a part time R.B. without needing to get REPS to get going like some backs need AND has proven he can bust off a LONG RUN just about every 10 carries, which is PERFECT for us plus his added return benefits on top of it.
As you can see here his LONG RUNS per short carries each game, seems like the PERFECT change of pace back to bust off a long run CONSISTENTLY while getting about 10-12 carries a game.

FELIX JONES THIS YEAR!

12 Carries 129 Yards 10.8 Avg. LONGEST 44 T.D.'s 1

16 Carries 96 Yards 6.0 Avg. LONGEST 36 T.D.'s 0

12 Carries 133 Yards 11.1 Avg. LONGEST 73 T.D.'s 0

7 Carries 132 Yards 18.9 Avg. LONGEST 71 T.D.'s 2

13 Carries 141 Yards 10.8 Avg. LONGEST 59 T.D.'s 2

6 Carries 42 Yards 7.0 Avg. LONGEST 17 T.D.'s 0

15 Carries 101 Yards 6.7 Avg. LONGEST 38 T.D.'s 2

17 Carries 89 Yards 5.2 Avg. LONGEST 18 T.D.'s 1

13 Carries 166 Yards 12.8 Avg. LONGEST 72 T.D.'s 3

9 Carries 85 Yards 9.4 Avg. LONGEST 31 T.D.'s 0

MAN, look at his YARD PER CARRY for EVERY GAME, this tells me he runs great against EVERY DEFENSE he's faced and is consistent game in and game out.
Now, look at his yards, he seems to have basically gotten over 100 yards EVERY GAME when he's getting MINIMAL Carries EVERY GAME (because of McFadden).

Then look at his LONGEST RUN compared to his ATTEMPTS for that game.
He's only getting MINIMAL TOUCHES EVERY GAME and CONSISTENTLY breaks off a LONG RUN "WEEK IN AND WEEK OUT".