To Draft Top 5 or Top 15? A Subjective Data Analysis

[TwoDeep3]

This is good stuff, Avery, but I'd just like to point out that even if you look at a particular draft where better players were picked outside of the top 5 it still wouldn't matter to me. Why? Because all those players were also available with the 1st-5th picks. The Cowboys getting as high a pick as they can isn't critical because of what some other teams did with similar picks in past years. It's about our scouting department getting their highest rated player in this class that they can when we're on the clock.

This is gold.

Because the players picked later were still there when a top five pick as made.

 

[Jake0]

Don't forget that the team's picking at the top of the draft were absolutely horrible the previous year and could be bringing in players into terrible situations where they just weren't used right/coached well or whatnot. The Raiders picking anyone usually was their death sentence right? Sometimes they go to a great team that just had huge injury issues or have a lot of young developing talent and turn the corner. It's all relative.

 

[Beast_from_East]

It's Sunday morning, I'm bored, the family's still asleep and I keep finding Legos scattered around my living room.

In an effort to somehow formulate some data-driven insights into the discussion of tanking the next two games instead of stealing one or two of them, I wanted to find out if we'll simply get a better player from #1 - #5 vs. #6 - #15. My sample size is the last ten years of drafts. While far from a comprehensive study, at a high-level, I wanted to actually have some numbers speaking to the importance of draft position vs. anecdotes. I did not include this year's rookie class simply to give them some more time to develop before bringing the guillotine down.

This is a Google spreadsheet so I'd love it for others to take a look and edit as necessary as this is a quick look at the importance of position. The grades I gave are on a 1 - 5 scale; a 1 is a complete bust, a 5 to be a Pro-Bowl caliber player. If you feel a player should be moved up or down on their grade, make the change, I won't have my feelings hurt and may be off on a few guys as I can't watch 16 games a week.

Some quick highlights:

6 of the last 10 years, top 5 has yielded a higher average
The 2011 draft was just awesome
2009 was not
With the exception of Claiborne, we've drafted quite well lately in the first round

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oi58VqnvoXT8RCij1NmCz49NI8E10-4WuuqxoSVmieM/edit#gid=0

Good stuff.................yea, its no secret that the better players are typically picked higher up. Yea, you can get a bust from time to time, but in general your top 5 picks are the consensus best players in the draft.

Also a lot of teams share their draft boards with each other after the draft as a way to "self scout" to make sure their scouting department is not missing something other teams are not. Jerry has mentioned this several times in the past that our player rankings were pretty similar to what a lot of other teams had in terms of player rankings as well. The point being is that almost all the teams in the league will have pretty much the same 5 players at the top of their board, the real mystery is when you start getting deeper into the draft.

 

[jterrell]

You'd rather have higher picks.
Who and where you ultimately draft is regardless of that.
Each slot has a value and higher has more value.

Trading down is a pretty easy move to call but the 3 best Cowboys R1 picks of the last 25 years are Troy at 1 overall, Emmitt after a few trades down then back up at 22 and Dez after likewise moving around.

It is going to be a fairly awesome off-season mocking this draft for Dallas. We've earned it watching this team.

 

[cowboyz]

dont forget tyron