I’ve always had the opinion that all NFL schedules are tough. The worst team in the league can beat any good team on any given week. So “strength of schedule” ratings, especially this time of year, are not that accurate.
Since 2008, 35% of all NFL Regular season games resulted in upsets. In other words, the team favored did not win. This is completely different than college FB where upsets only happen about 10-15% of the time.
Here are just some games from last year most people saw as probable wins that didn’t turn out that way:
- Chi 19- SF 10 (Sept)
- Ind 20- KC 17 (Sept)
- Den 11- SF 10 (Sept)
- NYG 24- Balt 20 (Oct)
- NYJ 20- Buff 17 (Oct)
- Minn 33- Buff 30 (Nov)
- Wash 32- Phil 21 (Nov)
- GB 31- Dal 28 (Nov)
- Dal 40- Minn 3 (Nov)
- Jax 40- Dal 34 (Dec)
- NO 20- Phil 10 (Dec)
- Det 20- GB 17 (Jan) pack was playing for playoff spot
Again, these are just a few of the examples of the NFL’s unpredictability. Whenever the schedule is released this week, most fans will rush to predict wins and losses. It’s almost impossible to do that accurately.