Sharp Football Analysis
One of the marquee match-ups of the Week 9 slate has the Cowboys and Eagles facing off in Philadelphia.
This game will go a long way to determining the winner of the NFC East Division.
Let’s assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Tra Blake will potentially impact this game.
Penalty Tendencies:
- At the midway point of the 2023 season, the Cowboys are the number one penalized road team, averaging 8.75 per game. This was an issue in Mike McCarthy’s first season in Dallas. The team improved last season but is again having issues on the road in 2023
- The Eagles’ penalty trajectory is the best of any team midway through the season. The Eagles were uncharacteristically one of the more penalized teams in the first month of the season. The second was a totally different story. Philadelphia is averaging just 2.75 penalties per game in their last four contests, more in line with their impressive 2022 penalty numbers
- The discrepancy in pre-snap penalties between these two teams is something that stands out. The Cowboys rank third overall in this category versus 23rd for the Eagles
- A constant issue for the Cowboys is offside penalties. They lead the NFL again in 2023. This is arguably the easiest penalty to avoid. Those 2nd-9 plays become 2nd-4 plays. It flips the advantage to the offense. Dallas does this far too often. In games like this, those infractions become magnified
- The Eagles offense currently ranks eighth overall in drawing hard-count penalties. The Cowboys are last in the NFL. In the short-yardage situations, don’t be surprised to see the Eagles benefit someway, somehow on Sunday
- Tra Blake leads the NFL in defensive pass interference penalties per game. The Cowboys and Eagles defensive units are almost dead even in pass interference numbers, so there is no overwhelming advantage either way here. This is worth keeping in mind when breaking down this contest from a total perspective
The Bottom Line:
- Tra Blake is in his second season as a head referee, so we’re dealing with a small sample size. Home teams are 15-8 on the moneyline and 13-10 (57%) ATS
- Blake has only officiated four divisional games. Home teams are a perfect 4-0 on the moneyline and 3-1 ATS in those contests
There is a lot of love for the Cowboys after their resounding win versus the Rams in Week 8, but can we really trust this team versus quality opponents?
We’ve seen this movie before. Dallas beats up on lesser opponents and comes up short in the big moments. This is a big moment for both teams in terms of NFC East supremacy in the 2023 season.
The Eagles have a track record of showing up when it counts. Their overall discipline is far superior to the Cowboys.
Conversely, there has to be a concern with the coaching in Dallas. The lack of discipline from a penalty perspective certainly points to that.
Maybe the Cowboys put it all together on Sunday and come up big in this game. If they do, we can tip our hats to them. So far in the McCarthy era, Dallas has generally faded in these spots.
Despite the limited sample size, home teams have fared well with Tra Blake officiating.
Philadelphia is the proven commodity here, making the Eagles -3 points the play in this game.